A comprehensive analysis of the USDCHF with 09.04.2018 for 13.04.2018
In our comprehensive weekly review we will look at the main fundamental and technical factors that will influence the USDCHF currency pair. So:
The previous week, from 2 to 6 April, was predominantly bullish:
The week was full of news events in the context of the "trade wars" between the United States and China. The dollar still looks confident, market quotes go well up, on Friday, April 6, they reached an important psychological level of 0.96500.
The long-term trend in USDCHF is bearish, for 18 years, since 2000. Although there are some signs of a possible reversal, since 2011 the price slowly rises from 0.70157. Medium-term bullish trend – since February 2018, the long-term trend may be changing, turning from bearish to bullish.
Short - term (weekly) trend, as we have already noted – bullish - and therefore consider this forecast as the most likely.
Option # 1 – the continuation of the bullish trend
USDCHF pushed back from the resistance level 0.96500, before that consistently updating daily, weekly and monthly highs. This is clearly seen on the H4 chart. An important psychological point – such a long movement in the same direction often provokes traders to play on the rollback. The price seems too high, but in fact - is not. Psychologically comfortable to play on the rollback, and traders often project their desires on the real market situation-trying to see the beginning of a turn down - in each bearish candle.
Option # 2 - bearish trend
This option can be considered after a reliable breakdown of 0.95000. On the chart H1 shows the interweaving of moving averages in the area around 0.96500, and – "Alligator" begins to "shut your mouth" down.
Option # 3 – flat
The least likely option, given the recent strong volatility. However, if there are no strong trading signals for buying (selling) – we remain out of the market, waiting for the right moment.
Significant events of the weekly economic calendar:
Tuesday 10 April
FOMC Member Robert Steven Kaplan Speech
Wednesday 11 April
• Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (USA)
• FOMC Minutes (USA)
Thursday 12 April
• FOMC Member Neel Kashkari Speech
• Initial Jobless Claims (USA)
Friday 13 April
• FOMC Member Robert Steven Kaplan Speech
• JOLTS Job Openings (USA)
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USA)
Before the news – be prepared for powerful price fluctuations. Follow our daily analytical reviews.
Sincerely, Sergey Ryazantsev - financial analyst of brokerage company AMEGA