Topic: Daily Analysis

EUR/JPY has clearly formed a flag on the 4-hour time frame but the trend is still obviously bearish on all larger time-frames, including the 4-hour one. The pair has almost reached the previous low at 122.53 and it will likely break below that level. So far there is not clear next level of support, but it should form in time.

Re: Daily Analysis

Hi Eliza,

Thanks for sharing with us your market analysis.

Could you go 1 step further to upload your screen shot to demonstrate those pointers you highlighted and also show us what indicators etc that helped you "see" and "read" the market conditions for you to "predict" a breakout coming out soon.  That would be wonderful and educational for us to learn from you and gain your insights.

Thanks

Regards
Hannah

HIT

Re: Daily Analysis

Yes, of course.
As you can see, here is the 4-hour time-frame:
http://i65.tinypic.com/15ckpzq.png

And this is the monthly time-frame:
http://i66.tinypic.com/4ky5g6.png

Re: Daily Analysis

Thanks Eliza, appreciate your efforts.

Are you referring to a Bearish (sell) Breakout soon?

May I know what's the reason for a Bearish breakout? 

Cos interestingly, from my technical analysis, it looks like a Bull Breakout is more likely to happen, though there seems to be a more fundamental pressure for a rather "prolonged" Bearish (with sideway trending) outlook and hence, the trend may be bearish for a while more but the next breakout seem likely to be in the Long direction....(Please don't take my comments seriously, i'm not a professional, cos I never traded in EURJPY, and I'm just trying to have some fun and to see whether the indicators I use (in EURUSD) is applicable in this situation).  And I'm curious how come you predict the opposite direction (sell) instead and I thought I would like to gain some perspective.

EA does a better Market Analysis
Now a days, I don't analyse the market anymore.  My EA does a better job than me, cos it is able to take into so many considerations (scan multiple time frames) at an instant and calculates more accurate than me.  I used to make the mistake of entering too early and got caught in the wrong direction because I based on "prediction" and when the market got caught too long in a "prolonged" situation than I expected (mostly due to some fundamental issues that went against the usual technical "expectations"), I ended up having to hold onto a losing position more than I should have. 

Better to be safe than sorry.
I learnt my lesson, better to wait for a confirmation and lose gaining a couple of pips in order to be sure than to enter a trade too early and taking such a "gamble" in my prediction. 

We can predict trend but we can't predict time
Even if I can "predict" the direction, there is the issue call, Time Factor.  It can come any time, it can come much later...and time/duration, is something I can't predict.  So although I think there is a likelihood of a breakout in the near future, it could happen anytime in the next moment yet it can also happen after days ranging and waiting till a week etc.

As for now, I let EA do the job for me
I now prefer to trade with an EA, cos the EA doesn't "predict"...it waits for an actual breakout to happen first and then enter into a trade and hence, preforms better.  And since I can't be watching the market all the time to wait for that moment to happen right at the moment while I'm sitting in front of my monitor.  And most of the time, when a breakout happened, a couple of hundreds or thousands pips can happened within a minute or two...by the time I react manually, those precious pips are gone..a little left (that's why I don't like to use any time frame more than 1min, it's hard to be on time to catch the bus when we have a laggy watch), then there is the waiting again as the market consolidate.  Still it's better to be safe than sorry.  Gain a little is better than losing and having a risky trading attitude. 

If you missed the Bus/Breakout, the next bus is coming anyway...but make sure you use a timely watch
One thing good about forex trading, if you missed your bus, don't worry, the next bus is coming anyway (just make sure you have a good watch, i.e. Time Frame to help you watch the market every minute for the next coming bus/breakout, so that you can be on time for your next bus arrival and catch it).  I often wonder how one is able to enter accurately (with their EA) if they use higher time frame as their platform?  How can one ever be on time for his bus, if he is always on an hourly look out and the bus can come at odd timing...won't he always be late for his breakout party?

HIT

Re: Daily Analysis

My logic is simple, really. The general trend is bearish, and, just as importantly, the Bollinger bands indicator is still pointed down on all large time-frames. I have long learned to trust that indicator, so combined with the general bearish trend I concluded that it's likely for the pair to continue moving to the downside. Of course, that would only be confirmed if it breaks below the previous low, which hasn't happened yet.

I am taking your words into consideration though, thank you so much.

Re: Daily Analysis

Hi Eliza,

Thanks for sharing your insight.

Don't take my guess too seriously, i'm just being curious to learn from others.  Anyway,  even the experts aren't sure themselves and have mixed forecast among one another.

Meanwhile if this is EURUSD conditions , my Break out EA will be "sleeping and waiting", while my scalper will try to scrape off some pips in the small wave movements, following the general bearish trend, cos I wouldn't know how long this bearish trend going to last.

Is there anyway you can translate your trading theory into EA? Cos based on your description, I wonder what kind of opening conditions I need to use to "describe or programme" the EA to think like you do.  I do noticed the observations about Bollinger Band pointed down concept and i often wonder how accurate and consistent it will be to base my prediction on it (since I haven't given myself any extensive time to observe further to make any conclusion), secondly I wonder how to put such observation into my opening conditions cos there isn't a BB settings that I can use that says "bar opens below lower band when lower band is pointing downwards" or if BB is widening and price is nearer to lower band, sell and vise versa.  Or use the BB angles to determine the direction of the trend.  If BB is parallel with horizontal degrees, it is side way trending.   But if BB is upward incline with widening gaps, it's bullish market and vise versa.

HIT

Re: Daily Analysis

You're welcome. I'm glad to be of any help, when it's possible.
This BB logic generally applies to most currency pairs out there, I've applied it to Gold even, so I think it should apply to EUR/USD.
As for how it can be translated into an EA, I am not sure. I confess that when I first came to the forum I happened upon this analysis section as well as that "Pigeons in the office" topic, but it was the analyses section that drew my attention. I noticed the rest after I registered. I have a very limited experiences with EAs from years ago when I had an EA that scalped DAX under certain conditions, which worked only some of the time, it seemed.

Re: Daily Analysis

Currently the EUR/NZD trend is bearish, although on a long-term basis the pair is consolidating. At the moment it is testing the support at 1.6114 after it bounced off of it weeks ago. If the pair succeeds in breaking below that level I think it will continue towards the next support level at 1.5900 which is also the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly time frame.

http://i68.tinypic.com/jqiy4z.png

Re: Daily Analysis

http://i68.tinypic.com/302qcqr.png

NZD/USD is currently testing the resistance at 0.7000. Considering the fact that the trend is bearish, that the pair has formed new highs in the past few months and that the BB upper band is also pointing up I would say that it's quite possible for the pair to break above that resistance. If it does next target is around 0.7100, which is MA89 on the weekly time frame.

Re: Daily Analysis

The AUD/USD move to the upside continues after the pair broke above the resistance visible on the weekly time frame as the MA89 at 0.7780, as well as the upper band of the BB indicator. The next long term target is around 0.86, which is the MA89 indicator on the monthly time frame.

http://i67.tinypic.com/zswh2r.png

11 (edited by eliza.abrams21 2016-04-23 10:57:10)

Re: Daily Analysis

EUR/GBP broke below the support at 0.7840, despite the doji candlestick that had formed there which hinted that the move to the downside might be exhausted. Next week we can likely expect a further drop towards 0.7680, and if it breaks below that level it will probably reach 0.7610, where is the MA89 on the daily time frame.

http://i64.tinypic.com/15eu42o.png

Re: Daily Analysis

Yesterday there was no analysis, because for the most part the market was too calm and I saw no relevant signals that were worth mentioning. Today, however, I want to mention EUR/USD, which bounced off the support at 1.1210, which is the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily time frame and is currently testing the resistance at 1.1300. A break above that level could lead to a further climb north towards 1.1330 at least.

http://i65.tinypic.com/2d1k780.png

Re: Daily Analysis

As I thought yesterday EUR/USD reached the resistance at 1.1339 and bounced off of it. Today range continues and next target is likely 1.1220 again. However, I want to remind people that today also there is a FOMC statement, which will provoke a lot of volatility on the market as it always does.

http://i67.tinypic.com/t8ta9c.png

Re: Daily Analysis

At this point I don't even expect news like the FOMC announcement yesterday to provoke any major change on the market. I always hope for it, but I don't really expect it. Still, the announcement did finally provoke enough volatility on the market for EUR/USD to break above the resistance at 1.1330 and it is very likely that the pair will once again visit the next resistance at 1.1400.

http://i68.tinypic.com/50siok.png

Re: Daily Analysis

The BoJ's decision not to expand its monetary policy had a massive effect on the JPY related pairs and in particular on EUR/JPY, which fell with over 500 pips since then. Currently the pair is testing the support at 121.71 which is also the previous low and I think it's very likely to break below that support.

http://i66.tinypic.com/295rd34.png

Re: Daily Analysis

EUR/USD has been testing the resistance at 1.1450 again and I think it will likely break above that level and visit the resistance at 1.1500 - 1.1530 again.

http://i66.tinypic.com/hu3fk8.png

Re: Daily Analysis

EUR/USD finally broke above 1.1460 and will almost inevitably reach 1.1500 - 1.1530. I think at this point the real question is whether it will stop there or it will continue climbing.

http://i68.tinypic.com/2n0sxs3.png

Re: Daily Analysis

As I expected, EUR/GBP continued its move to the downside until it reached MA89 on the daily time frame. That said, by the time the pair reached the indicator its line had climbed up, which is something that happens quite often and should always be taken into consideration when working with it or Bollinger Bands. As such the pair reached the support at 0.7730 and bounced off of it. Next target is around 0.7900, which is the middle line of the BB indicator on the daily time frame.

http://i66.tinypic.com/zy6p76.png

Re: Daily Analysis

USD/CAD started retracing after it reached the support at 1.2450, which should've been expected, considering the incredible drop that happened in the past few weeks. The pair is now testing 1.2730 and if it breaks above that resistance it might continue on its way up to the next major resistance level at 1.30, which is the upper band of BB indicator on the daily time frame.

http://i.imgur.com/3PkTrT2.png

Re: Daily Analysis

After the immense drop last week EUR/GBP has been consolidating and the pair recently reached the resistance at 123.20, formed a spinning top moved to the downside again. Considering that the consolidation is in the form of a flag, there are two possible scenarios - the pair will either break below the support at 122.60 to continue falling towards the next support at 122.00, or the flag will continue developing and the pair will keep climbing towards  123.60, which is MA89 on the 4-hour time frame.

http://i.imgur.com/CM9ACzK.png

Re: Daily Analysis

There will be no analysis today, just a reminder that the US Change in Non-Farm payrolls will be announced later today. Whatever changes will occur on the market will become clear when that happens.

Re: Daily Analysis

Although the NFP didn't have as strong of an effect as it usually does it still managed to push GBP/USD below the support at 1.4440. Currently the pair is testing the next support at 1.4400, and if it breaks out below that level it will likely continue falling towards 1.4340 - 1.4300.

http://i.imgur.com/x1rJKbo.png

Re: Daily Analysis

EUR/JPY has broken above 122.50 and the pair is testing the resistance at 122.85. A breakout above that level will likely lead to a further move to the upside towards the next resistance level at 123.30, which is both MA89 and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour time frame.

http://i.imgur.com/EfUuWB3.png

Re: Daily Analysis

EUR/GBP will soon test the support at 0.7870 which is the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily time frame, and if it breaks below that level it will likely continue falling towards the support at 0.7760 again.

http://i.imgur.com/HRHks1m.png

Re: Daily Analysis

I found this screenshot very interesting and I decided to focus on it today. Something rather unusual has happened - the pair has formed the spinning top quite higher than the support at 124.40, which is MA89 on the four-hour time frame and it has continued climbing. That is rarely seen, usually the price would reach the indicator and bounce off of it, but exceptions are possible and we should always keep that in mind. As for the pair, next target is likely 124.40, which is the previous high.

http://i.imgur.com/pxGCKi4.png