Topic: Fresh Forex forecast

Gold, Silver, Oil Weekly Analysis
Gold Weekly Review
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Weekly Review:

For the past three weeks Gold has traded short following a bounce from a the weekly resistant level 117735. Following the previous week's downward movements, we are very reluctant to go long, however, the size of the previous week's red candle indicate that, although we are headed short, the downward movement may be short lived probably only up to lower support trend line. Any clear movements below this trend line will signal further downward movements to the lower side. We will however be looking for long positions along this supportive trend line.
Trade Recommendations:
If you haven't sold gold already, wait and sell below 1064.77 but with out targets at 1041.33, and the next target at the support trend line.

Silver Weekly Review
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Weekly Review:

Since Silver bounced of from a resistive trend line at 16.038, the commodity has continually headed short, The commodity even ended up closing below a very significant support level 14.33. Following this downward movements, we are very reluctant to go long, instead we will remain short but with an ultimate stop at the lower supportive trend line.  Any movements below this support trend line will signal further movements to the lower side.
Downward movements in other commodities such as Gold, will signal similar downward movements in silver. These commodities are positively correlated are thus expected to follow similar price movements.
Trade Recommedations:
Remain short in the silver markets but with an ultimate stop at the lower supportive trend line. Any clear movements will signal further movements to the lower side.

Oil weekly Review
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Weekly Review:

For the past six weeks, after oil bounced off from a key weekly resistant 49.64, the commodity has continued short and is currently trading along a very significant support level 40.41. Following the massive downward movements witnessed during the previous week, we are very reluctant to execute long positions. However, we will be keen to look for further short positions below 36.77. This downward movements is highly anticipated since since other commodities such as Gold has been short for almost three weeks, meaning as long as gold continues short, oil and other commodities may as well be headed short. Gold, Silver, and oil appear to have positive correlation.
In an event that bullish candles appear above 40.41, then we will be looking for potential buy positions. this would only mean the demand has began to outdo supply of the commodity.
Trade Recommendation:
Remain short but only up to 36.77, any clear movements below this level will signal further movements to the lower side.

Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/week_1044.html

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8 (edited by Volkov Yuriy 2016-02-25 10:02:28)

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EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 26 May 2016
26 May 2016, EUR/USD
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Wave Analysis:
EUR/USD is currently trading with a strong bullish bias. Yesterday, the pair made a marginal higher high and even broke above 1.1166. Following this breakout, we expect further momentum to the upper side but should not close above 1.12177. This view remains valid as long as the pair trades above 1.1166, a clear breakout below 1.1166 and also below 1.1138 will lead to an acceleration to the lower side. This pair should be traded alongside EUR/CHF, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. These pairs have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.85 and will likely have a similar price action during this week.
Trade Recommendations:
Wait for minor downward pullbacks towards 1.1166, then go long with your target at 1.12177. Sell positions are only ideal below 1.1138 with you ideal target at 1.1099.

Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/issue_77660.html

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EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 3 June 2016

03 June 2016, EUR/USD

EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 3 June 2016
Wave Analysis

EUR/USD is currently trading with a slight bullish bias. Yesterday, wave (5) ended a bit earlier than expected and even closed below our target resistance level 1.12177, before heading massively short. Following the break below 1.1160, we expect the current upward rally to be a mere corrective upward rally and should not close above 1.1166, a break above this level may lead to an upward rally towards 1.1192 but should not close above 1.12177. Ideally, this pair is in an overall downward trend and may accelerate towards 1.1104 upon rebounding from the zone 1.1160-1.1166. This pair should be traded alongside Gold, EUR/GBP, and Silver. These commodities and Currencies have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.90 and will have a similar price action during this intraday.

Trade Recommendations:

If you are not short already, wait for the current upward rally to go short with your ideal target at 1.11045. Buy positions are only ideal if the current pullback close above 1.1166. If the latter is the case, then buy the pair with your targets at 1.1192 and 1.1217.
Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/issue_81681.html

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EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 8 June 2016

08 June 2016, EUR/USD

EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 8 June 2016
Wave Analysis

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EUR/USD is currently ranging around 1.1377. As expected yesterday, this pair is in a process of a triangular formation. Thus, during this intraday, we are not in a hurry to go short or long instead, we are waiting for a break above the triangle to go long or a break below it to short.A break above 1.1377 is highly likely, though we cannot rule out the possibility of price moving in an opposite direction. This pair should be traded alongside EUR/GBP, and AUD/USD. These pairs have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.95 and will have a similar price action during this intraday.

Trade Recommendations:

Remain flat for now and wait for a clear breakout above 1.1377 to go long with your target at 1.1438 or a break below the lower trendline forming bottom of the triangle to go short with your target at 1.1324 and 1.1263.

Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/issue_81736.html

14 (edited by Volkov Yuriy 2016-06-29 11:14:32)

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Daily Forex market review 29 June 2016

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

US GDP for the first quarter was revised to the positive direction, and June's index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board rose to its highest level for the 8 months. Thus, economic growth ha accelerated in the United States, which favors US dollar.
- ADX on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat as well.
- We should open Sell positions at 1.1100 (one eleven double zero) and 1.1150  (one eleven fifty). As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.1040 (one ten forty) (area of the lower Bollinger bands indicator on the hourly chart).
GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- On 27 and 28 of June two largest international rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch downgraded the UK's rating, that will force outflow of capital from the country.
- ADX on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat as well.
- The pair is in the flat, cause large market participants continue to build up short position in the market.
- We should open Sell positions at 1.3390  (one thirty three ninety) and 1.3500 (one thirty five double zero). As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.3240 (one thirty two forty) (area of strong support level).
USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- On tuesday the fear index S&P500 VIX showed a decline in the rate of 21.3% (twenty one dot three per cent) It indicates an increase in demand in risky assets and allows bulls testing the upper border within the range 101.39 -103.25. (one hundred and one dot  thirty nine - one hundred and three dot twenty five)
- ADX on the daily chart indicates a strong downtrend; whereas, on the 4-hour and the hourly charts it shows flat.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat.
- We should open Sell positions at 102.80 (one hundred and two dot eighty) and 103.20 (one hundred and one dot  twenty) (area the upper Bollinger bands on the hourly chart) As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 102,00 (one hundred and two sharply) (area of the lower border Bollinger bands indicator on the hourly chart).

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Daily Forex market review 30 June 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
US report on private consumption for May indicates acceleration of economic growth in the second quarter, which is positive for US dollar.
- ADX on the daily and 4-hour charts indicates a flat, on the hourly chart it is nearing the downtrend zone.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.
- We should open Sell positions at 1.1140 (one eleven forty) and 1.1180 (one eleven eighty) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart). As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.1060 (one ten sixty) (area of the lower border on the Bollinger bands indicator on the hourly chart).
GBP/USD (Pound /dollar)
- In credit markets, yield of the 10-years' UK government bonds has dropped against their counterparts from the USA and Germany, which makes investments in British assets less attractive. The bond market still conveys that sales of the pound are not over yet.
- ADX on the daily and 4-hour charts indicates a flat, on the hourly chart it is nearing the downtrend zone.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.
- We should open Sell positions at 1.3480 (one thirty four eighty) and 1.3530 (one thirty five thirty) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart) As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.3350 (one thirty three fifty) (area of the lower Bollinger band indicator on the hourly chart).
USD /JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Despite a strong growth of stock indices since the beginning of the trading week (for example, Nikkei 225 rose by 4.11% (four dot eleven per cent) and the Euro Stoxx 50 by 2.02% - two dot zero two per cent), the pair has completely ignored this positive background and demonstrated a modest growth by  0,3% (zero fot three per cent) . This indicates a large number of sellers on the market.
- ADX on the daily chart indicates a strong downtrend; whereas on the 4-hour chart and hourly charts it indicates a flat.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.
- We should open Sell positions at 102.90  (one hundred and two dot ninety) and 103.30  (one hundred and three dot thirty) (area the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart). Open Take profit orders at 101.50  (one hundred and one dot fifty) (area of the lower border Bollinger band on the 4-hour chart).

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Daily Forex market review 05 July 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- on Monday the Italian government said that is not going to solve problems of credit institutions at the expense of state. Problems in Italian banks (and not only they alone) and a lot of investors began to sell banks' shares in a hurry, which is negative for the euro.
- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI is out of the oversoldness area and allows us holding Sell trades.
- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 1.1140 (one eleven forty) and 1.1170 (one eleven seventy) (area of the middle and upper Bollinger bands, respectively). Set take profit at 1.1097 (one ten ninety seven) (a strong support).
GBP/USD (Pound /dollar)
- PMI index of the UK construction sector in June fell to its lowest level since October 2009 (two thousand and nine). In our opinion, this is just the beginning. Further we will receive an entire portion of weak macroeconomic statistics, cut of the rate by the Bank of England, increase of the QE (Quantitative Easing) package and decline of the pound to new multi-years Lows.
- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; the hourly chart shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the hourly chart is in the oversoldness area, signaling a possible upward correction.
- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 1.3260 (one thirty two sixty) and 1.3305 (one thirty three zero five) (area of the middle and upper Bollinger bands, respectively). Set take profit at 1,3119 (one thirty one nineteen) (a strong support)
USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen
- "Risk appetite" has dropped again, which plays into the hands of bears. Once again, dark clouds are above the European banking sector: the Italian government refused to provide banks with additional liquidity. The management of Deutsche Bank does not know what to do with bad assets. Very often, crises begins with the banking sector. In 2008, it were the US banks, now, 8 years later, apparently, it will be the European financial institutions.
- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hour and hourly charts it shows the downtrend chart.
- RSI hourly chart has formed a divergence in the oversoldness zone, indicating the upward correction.
- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 102.30  (one hundred and two dot thirty) and 102.65  (one hundred and two  dot sixty five) (the area of the middle Bollinger band). Set take profit at 100,82 (one hundred sharply dot eighty two (a strong support)

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Daily Forex market review 13 July 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- In credit markets, yield of the 10-years' German government bonds is declining as compared to US and UK bonds. It makes investment in European assets more attractive.
- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- RSI on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat, too.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1,1010 -1,1110 (one ten ten – one eleven ten) (the bottom Bollinger band on the hourly chart).
GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- On credit markets, yield of the 10-years' UK government bonds is declining as compared to US and German bonds. It makes investment in British assets less attractive. It is impossible to ignore the press releases of many UK banks stating that on Thursday the Bank of England will make a step ahead and lower rate by 0.5% (zero dot five per cent).
- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- RSI on the 4-hours and hourly charts is overbought and has formed a divergence,  it is the downtrend.
- Recommendation:We should open Sell positions from  1.3315 (one thirty three fifteen) and 1.3355 (one thirty three fifty five) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart) and take profit at 1,3235 (one thirty two thirty five) (area of the bottom Bollinger band on the hourly chart).
USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Stock markets are optimistic: US S&P500 index is storming new Highs, which contributes to growth of the currency pair. However, there is one factor which casts doubt on future growth of the stock markets - it is though moderate, but growing fear index VIX S&P500. This index is growing for the second day in a row, that signalsabout the downward correction.
- ADX on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- RSI on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat, too.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 103,50  (one hundred and three dot fifty) -105,00  (one hundred and five sharply) (the range of Bollinger bands on the hourly chart).
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Daily Forex market review 28 July 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- On the bond market, trend for euro is still negative: spread of yield of the 10-years' US and German bonds is expanded. It makes investment in US assets more attractive.
- ADX indicator on the 4-hours' chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the flat.
- RSI indicator shapes divergence in the overboughtness zone on the hourly chart, which means the downtrend
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1030 -1.1130. (one ten thirty – one eleven thirty)
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- The day before, traders ignored strong report on UK GDP for the second quarter. It proves a large number of sellers in the market. Another negative factor for the pair is sales on the oil market. The day before, US Department of Energy reported an increase of crude oil reserves by 1.6 (one dot six) million barrels – and that was after a nine-weeks' drop of reserves.
- Both indicators - RSI and ADX - show the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts
- Today, there is the flat range 1.3060 -1.3250  (one thirty sixty - one thirty two fifty) (which corresponds to Bollinger envelope on the hourly chart)
- Recommendation: We should open Sell trades from 1.3250 (one thirty two fifty) , and take profit at 1,3100 (one thirty one double zero).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Multidirectional vector of monetary policy of the US and Japanese Central Banks leaves investors no choice but to building long positions on decline of the price. Dynamics of the US stock market also indicates a continued uptrend: the day before, the fear index VIX closed the day in the "red zone", which is a positive factor for the stock market.
- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator shapes divergence in the oversoldness zone on the hourly chart, which means the uptrend
- Recommendation: We should open Buy trades from 104.50 (one hundred and four dot fifty) and take profit at 105,50.  (one hundred and five dot fifty)

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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- On the one hand,  sales on the commodity market will support the US currency, as the cost of commodities is  denominated in USD. On the other hand, weak PMI on the  UK manufacturing sector can have a positive impact on EUR/GBP (euro/pound) cross-rate. In its turn, it is positive for EUR/USD, so we expect a flat on this pair.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the uptrend.
- RSI indicator on the 4-hours chart is overbought, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1150 -1.1210 (one dot eleven fifty - one twelve ten)
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- Today, Markit information company will publish PMI report on the UK construction sector. Taking into account Brexit, we can expect release of weak data. Political risks jeopardize commercial and residential property markets. Sales are still observed on the oil market and Brent quotations are to test the psychological level $40/barrel, which means the downtrend.
Both indicators – ADX and RSI – on the daily, 4-hour s and hourly charts show the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3220 (one thirty two  twenty) and take profit at 1,3140 (one thirty one forty)
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- The day before, the "fear" index VIX S&P five hundred 500 grew by 6%. In Europe, leaders of the most notable decline were shares of the banking sector including Italian shares. The outflow from risky assets will cause the inflow of capital into the Japanese yen, which means the downtrend.
Both indicators – ADX and RSI – on the daily, 4-hour s and hourly charts show the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 102.45 (one hundred and two dot forty five) and take profit at 101.90 (one hundred and one dot ninety).
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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- Today the United States will publish the reports on employment from ADP and business activity in the field of services from ISM. Taking into account the fast economic growth, both indicators may be better than the consensus forecast, which is positive for US dollar.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shapes the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the 4-hours chart is in the overboughtness area and has formed a divergence there, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1150 -1.1210  (one dot eleven fifty - one twelve ten) .
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- In the afternoon, we will probably see the negative release on crude oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. It will put the oil under pressure and in this regard, we can see the demand in the US currency, as the cost of commodity is denominated in US dollars.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3365  (one thirty three sixty five) and take profit at 1,3265  (one thirty two sixty five).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- An outflow of capital from risky assets supported the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The day before, on US stock market, the index of "fear" VIX S&P500 grew by 7.4% (seven dot four per cent), which means the downtrend.
- ADX Indicator on the monthly and weekly charts shows the downtrend; on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts it shows the flat
- RSI indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 101.30 (one hundred and one dot thirty) and take profit at 100.60 (one hundred sharply dot sixty)
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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
Spread between yield of 10 years' US and German bonds is expanded, which is negative for euro. Oil correction will be short-term and soon we will see another drop of quotations to the psychological level $40 per barrel, which is negative for euro, too. So, this is the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the 4-hours and hourly charts shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the hourly chart has formed a divergence and this was done in the oversoldness zone. So, it shows the uptrend on the hourly chart.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,1165 (one dot eleven sixty five) and take profit at 1,1100 (one dot eleven double zero).
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- The main event today will be announcement of results of the Bank of England's meeting on monetary policy. If the Bank of England cuts the rate, this may cause a fall of the British currency. If the rate remains at the same level, the pound may grow.
- ADX indicator on the 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat; on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: If the Bank of England cuts the rate, we should open Sell positions so that take profit in 100 points.
If the Bank of England does not cut the interest rate, we should open Buy position so that take profit in 50 points.
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Today's trading results will be determined by the "risk appetite" of investors. On Wednesday, the shares of Deutsche Bank were excluded from the Euro Stoxx 50 index. The reason was a heavy drop of its capitalization. This is another wake-up call for players of the stock market as Deutsche Bank is a financial institution number one in Europe. So, this is the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on a monthly and weekly charts shows the downtrend. On the hourly chart, it is the uptrend
- On the hourly chart RSI indicator is approaching the oversoldness zone, which indicates that the upward correction is over.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 101.70 (one hundred and one seventy) and take profit at 101.00. ( (one hundred and one sharply)
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Daily Forex market review 5 August 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- If we see a total NPF figure above the 200 (two hundred thousand), that will be enough to strengthen the US currency. This result is very probable, because in July the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level since 1973 (nineteen seventy three), which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and the hourly charts shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hours chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1,1080-1,1180 (one ten eighty – one eleven eighty).
The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)
- The Bank of England has cut the key rate by 0.25% (zero dot twenty five per cent) and enhanced its QE program. It intends to lower the rate again later this year. GDP forecasts for 2016 - 2018 years were revised in the negative direction, which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat.
- There is a strong bearish candle formed on August 4, which means the downtrend.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3145 (one thirty one forty five) and take profit at 1,3065 (one thirty one sixty five).
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- Global stock markets are growing, which should lift the pair, but traders ignored positive background. It indicates presence of a large number of sellers in the market, which means the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.
- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 100,60-101,60 (one hundred dot sixty - one hundred and one sixty)
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Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016

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EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)
- Yield of the 10-years' German bonds (paragon bonds for the euro zone) has dropped against US and UK bonds, which usually is a negative factor for euro, whether it is paired with dollar and pound . So, it is the downtrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the 4-hours and hourly charts it is the downward trend.
- RSI indicator on the hourly chart is heavily oversold, so this is a signal of an upward correction.
- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,1308 (one thirteen zero eight) and take profit at 1,1280 (one twelve eighty).
The next pair - GBP / USD (Pound/dollar)
- Yield of the 10-years' UK bonds is growing against US and German bonds. It makes investments in British assets more attractive. So, it is the uptrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and the hourly charts shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hours chart, the trend is downward.
- RSI indicator  shows the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.3015 -1.3095 (one thirty fifteen - one thirty ninety five)
And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)
- An outflow of capital from risky assets indicates a downtrend, because the capital will go to the yen as a funding currency Number One in the carry trade operations. So, it is the uptrend.
- ADX indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hours chart, the trend is downward.
- RSI indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat; on the 4-hours chart, the trend is down.
- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 100,20-101,20 (one hundred sharply dot twenty - one hundred and one dot twenty).
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