"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
19.06.2015
Fundamental analysis
The main event of the day was the US Federal two-day meeting results announcement. Most the world leading investment banks' economists expect the Federal Reserve positive forecasts still the FOMC representatives sent the dollar to the knockout. The key forecasts for GDP, unemployment and interest rates have been revised to the negative directions which together with uncertainty in relation to the federal funds rate first increase have had significant pressure on the US dollar.
In the light of this the pair EUR/USD has increased, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well, the pair USD/JPY has fallen.
There was the Euro group meeting where they discussed "the Greek debt" solutions. The Greece and the Germany 10-year government bond yields have been increasing for four trading days in a row that pointed out to the low probability of a compromise. Even if the parties were able to reach a consensus - the negotiations would be very long.
The USA published a weekly initial jobless claims report. There was 267 thousand claims last week, While analysts had expected 276 thousand.

Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
The US Fed deprived the dollar bulls all the trumps. They level the unemployment and GDP evaluation for the period 2015-2017 years which was negatively perceived by traders. The only thing that was left unchanged was the inflation forecast, but it is not clearly enough yet. The main event of the day was the US inflation data release. The data showed 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y. The forecast was 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y. And we cannot ignore the situation around Greece.
Buyers have reached the strong resistance level of 1.1450 the third time for three weeks. They have reached the level amid the increased volume.
The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
We suppose the pair will go to 1.1450 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)
General overview
The National Statistics Office has published the May UK retail sales data. We mark the average earnings growth acceleration at the end of March and April which indicates the consumer spending increase. In this context, we expect the data output bit better than the forecasted medians. The data shed a growth by 0.2% m/m и 4.6% y/y
In view of the US Federal Reserve negative economic forecasts - the pair may reach the psychological level of 1.5950 in the short term.
At the session the British pound session significantly strengthened against the US dollar, breaking through the two strong resistance levels: 1.5670, 1.5775. The levels breakthrough was amid the increased volume.
The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.
There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
The approach to the level of 1.5775 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5950, 1.6080.

Yen (JPY)
General overview
After the Fed statistics publication the Japanese yen has strengthened less against the dollar among the majors. In the short term we may expect the quotations decrease as the US Federal Reserve chairman J. Yellen pointed out that they have to see "more convincing evidence" of sustained moderate economic growth to start the interest rates raising.
The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendations
If the price fixates below the resistance level of 123.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 122.40, 121.60 and 120.40.

Franc (CHF)
General overview
The Swiss franc has grown rapidly against the dollar but then it fell again. The franc growth catalyst was the FOMC meeting results and the regulator head comments.
So, the Fed kept the base rate level forecast at the end of the year while lowering it for the next year. Until the end of 2015 they expect the interest rates increase to 0.625% which implies the twice increase by 25 bp. In the short term the rate is expected to reach 1.625% which is below the March forecast of 1.875%. In accordance with the FOMC statements the interest rate remains within the range of 0.25% to 0.50%.
The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendations
We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
