"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar finished the last week on a positive note. The new week for the dollar also began with its consolidation. The core inflation indicator (Core CPI) came out 0.1% better than traders had expected which increased the demand for the US dollar. There has been the US trend reversal and during summer we may expect new USDX highs. Against this negative background the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD had decreased and consolidated by the end the day.

The Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy meeting results, still the market was not surprised. The stimulating base remained at the same level while the GDP forecast was raised up by 1% for the current year. At the moment the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 120.65, but after the US inflation data output bulls were able to bring the situation under control. As a result, the trading day ended with a slight correction after the quotations growth.

In this context, during this week we may expect the downtrend continuation. The previous day was marked by the calm trading amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics publication as well as the banking weekend on the occasion of t he Germany, the UK and the US public holidays.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market took positively the US dollar inflation release. The Core CPI index rose up by 0.1% to 1.8% on the annual basis while the CPI came out as it was expected in the negative area -0.2%. The US Treasury bond yields have increased that point out to the expectations about the Fed monetary policy changes.

After two days consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1150 the downward trend has been continued. Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.1050 amid the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925, 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The liquidity was very low amid the UK and the US public holidays and in this regard, we had a horizontal trend.

Last week the British pound fell against the dollar by more than 200 points. The price reduction was on the high volume and led to the price output from the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5550 for a steady growth. The way to the marks of 1.5670 and 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japanese exporters felt confident enough in the first quarter and according to the April results, the low exchange rate indicates the positive trend continuation. Taking into account the profit taking on the long positions in the US stock market on Friday and the carry trade closing deals there was the AUD/JPY decrease. Given the fact that the US dollar bullish trend is gaining momentum – we should not count on the quotations strong decrease.

Buyers have tested and consolidated under the resistance level of 121.60. The level breakthrough was on the increased volume - bulls are now strong.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 121.60. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.37. Yesterday only the United States released a portion of macroeconomic statistics. The durable goods orders came out slightly worse than the forecasted medians while the Conference Board consumer confidence index exceeded the traders’ expectations. The US Treasuries short-term and long-term bond yields have been reduced after these statistics publication that encouraged bulls to long. As a result, the trading day the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD finished with the quotations decrease, the pair USD/JPY has increased.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the primary market home sales volume increased more than expected in April. According to the revised data, the index rose by 6.8% to the annual rate of 517,000 from the mark of 484,000 in March. According to the original data, economists had expected the primary market housing sales would increase to the level of 509,000 from 481,000 the previous month.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and Germany 10-year government bonds yields increased which is a negative factor for the euro. The German and the Greek bond yields have also grown upwards.

Athens has already made it clear to its creditors that they cannot fulfill their obligations and the debt market dynamics signals to us that at the moment the compromise is not found.

The euro activity has been declining against the US dollar for the second week. The downward trend is developing amid the increased volumes - sellers are still dominant in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1050, 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States and the United Kingdom did not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases and it is necessary to pay attention to the debt and commodity markets’ dynamics. The UK 10-year bond yields are declining in the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will put pressure on the British pound. Today the Britain will publish the WFP.

The downward trend has strengthened after the strong support level of 1.5390 breakthrough. Now the mark of 1.5390 serves as the strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5490.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5460, 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy report was published, however, the market has already received all of the key benchmarks from the Japanese regulator. The pair dollar/yen came out from the two-month consolidation towards the main trend and the global demand for the US dollar indicates that this trend is not yet complete and will be continued. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan bipolar monetary policy which support the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the sellers may go to 122.40 and 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the two-day growth the US dollar got under pressure. The USDX finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.14. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking after the US jobless claims negative release. Now investors do not have a good alternative to the US dollar. We also cannot ignore the "black gold" market dynamics. The oil trading finished in the "green zone" amid the US inventories decline.

The UK GDP second assessment remains unchanged that at the moment put pressure on the pair GBP/USD which fell to the level of 1.5260 after which there was the short positions profit-taking that caused the technical rebound towards 1.5300. The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised in to the negative side.

The Japan weak April retail sales contributed to the pair USD/JPY growth which by the end of the day had increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We pay attention to the US first quarter GDP publication. Taking into account this economic growth second assessment and the trade balance, industrial production and employment weak macroeconomic releases for March we expected the index revision downwards and the data output within the forecasted medians. The GDP decreased by 0,7%.

The euro corrective growth is not supported by volumes and it looks quite weak. Buyers have broken through the resistance of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised into the negative side.

The downward trend is gradually losing its strength. In recent days we observe the reduced volatility in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5200, 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published a block of important macroeconomic statistics where the April inflation data are standing apart. The unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth in March indicate the CPI increase. The Japanese 10-year bond yields decreased by seven basis points in April which does not allow us to count on the data output significantly better than the forecasted medians.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40 and 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

After the US ambiguous economic data the US dollar corrected its achievements, but in general it remains positive.

Last week the initial jobless claims totaled 282k against the expected. 270k, but the unfinished home sales transactions totaled 3.4% in April against expected 0.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The new trading week the US dollar began with a growth. However it fell yesterday - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased. Earlier it showed a decrease amid the US ISM manufacturing sector positive report.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was under pressure after the UK manufacturing sector PMI weak data. Nevertheless, the trading day ended with the quotations increase. The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The US production sector ISM index positive data point out to the US economy recovery after recession in the first quarter which accelerated the pair USD/JPY growth. However the pair by the end of the day had decreased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone leading economies have already reported about the CPI growth by the end of May which may support the euro demand. On the other hand, we cannot ignore the debt market dynamics. The Greece and the Germany bond yields increase indicates the investors’ negative expectations about the "Greek question" decisions ‘perspectives.

This month Athens has to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF and the first payment is scheduled for the 5th of June.

The trading was around the level of 1.0925. Yesterday the euro sharply grew and broke through the resistance levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1460 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector business climate indicator pointed out that the Bank of England was quite optimistic in their GDP estimates for the second quarter of this year. The construction sector PMI index was published the other day.

The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The short-term consolidation above the support level of 1.5200 was followed by attempts of its breakthrough. On the volume sellers consolidated at the mark of 1.5200 but they did not break it downwards. The pair increased at the end of the trades and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5460 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300, 1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US ISM manufacturing sector business climate report points out to the industrial growth. There was noted the orders growth in the 11 sectors and the employment growth in 14 sectors, including the oil sector which in recent months has experienced hard times because of the energy low prices.

The resistance level of 124.30 did not stop the upward trend. The continuous consolidation below the level was followed by breakthrough. However the consolidation above the broken level was short-term and the pair fell below it.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.50 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 122.40, further then towards 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the ECB inflation forecast revision for 2015. However it slightly fell by the end of the day.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day after the service sector PMI index weak data release when the pair fell to the lowest level this year that confirms the UK low economic growth. The pair fell after a strong growth. There was published the GDP growth forecast in the second quarter to the level of 0.7% according to the Bank of England last meeting minutes. The data about the managers’ mood in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors indicate that this indicator will be below the forecast level. It should also be noted that the Brent crude lost more than 2% amid the negative expectations for the OPEC summit.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the risky assets demand. The carry trade transactions again put pressure on the Japanese yen. The yen devaluation has a positive impact on Japanese exporters - in April industrial production increased by 1% while in May the manufacturing PMI rose above 50%.

The US initial jobless claims showed positive release. The May index fell to 8000 to 276 000. The forecast growth was 279,000.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR/USD had renewed the maximums and formed a consolidation. The ECB raised this year inflation forecast by 0.3% which caused the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction. In its turn, this factor will provide some support to the euro. However, as the day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics the market showed some stabilization in anticipation of the Friday US labor market report.

The euro has been actively strengthening against the US dollar for three days amid the increased volumes. Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, buyers strengthened their positions. Nevertheless the pair fell to this level at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1050 and 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results. Traders did not expect any changes. The monetary regulator has repeatedly stated that it was ready to ease the monetary policy in case of the deflation risk, but now the situation is generally stable. During the first summer days the UK 10-year government bond yields showed an increase that point out to the UK inflation expectations growth.

The pound showed a strong growth but now we observe a slight decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating and closed the trades with a slight decrease. The Bank of Japan governor gave his speech which supported the Japanese yen. Mr. Kuroda noted the inflation expectations growth amid the wages and energy prices increase. The Japan 10-year bond yields have increased by 12 basis points for the last month.

The US dollar strong growth against the Japanese yen went into a prolonged consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50 and 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown while the dollar has reached its minimum level for the week against the euro and suffered losses against several other major currencies after the ECB has kept its monetary policy unchanged while the German Bunds bond yields continued to grow. The dollar had strengthened only at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday main event was the May US labor market report. All traders were looking forward to this release as it had to give an answer whether the US economy stood on the growth path after the first quarter recession or not and whether the Fed is going to raise the federal rates this year. It is worth noting that the data met the traders’ expectations who bet on the US dollar growth. The Non-Farm index came out at the level of 280 thousand, the average earnings increased by 0.3%. The US Treasury two-bond yields immediately increased to the level of 0.752%, having set a new maximum for the last four years. Against this background, the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD had decreased. However these pairs fell by the end of the day.

The Japan Central Bank foreign exchange reserves growth with the high level of Japanese securities purchases by foreign investors points out to the capital income into the country. Nevertheless the pair USD/JPY has decreased.

Germany published the industrial production report. It was expected that it might please the traders with the positive data amid the industrial orders growth. As a result the release showed a growth 0.9%m/m and 1.4% y/y.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro increased at the trades on Monday. Germany published the industrial production report. This index increased in April by 0.9% on the month basis after the revised decline by 0.4% in March. The increase was larger in April than it was forecasted by 0.5% and the highest increase in 2015.

We received the May US labor market report and it's time to sum up the outcomes. The private sector employment reached the level of 280 thousand that confirms the Fed forecast for the US economic recovery in the second quarter.

The price reduction from the resistance level of 1.1260 was followed by the support level of 1.1150 short-term breakthrough. However, buyers were able to buy out the price and return it above the mark of 1.1150. The resistance level of 1.1260 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance level of 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US labor market positive report for May points out both to the economic growth as a whole and to the inflation increase in particular. Inflation expectations growth will contribute to the fact that investors will lay in their forecasts the monetary policy tightening by the Fed part which will support demand for the US dollar.

The pound downward trend has stopped at the round support level of 1.5200 for the second time. We noted a consolidation below the resistance level of 1.5300. Then the pair increased and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the April payment balance report. The Japan Central Bank foreign exchange reserves growth with the high level of Japanese securities purchases by foreign investors points out to the capital income into the country which made it possible to rely on the positive data output. The data came out at the level of -146.4B. the forecast median was +153B.

The bullish trend is still quite strong and investors will build up long positions on dips. Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the maximum of 124.30. The pair fixated above and tested the level of 125.50. the pair rebound downwards from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 125.50.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar is correcting. The dollar ended the day at the level of 95.29. The April trade balance and industrial production positive German statistics helped the pair to grow.

There was a negative trend in the securities market - the British bonds yield are reduced against the German ones and the USA Treasuries. In the light of this, the pound/dollar lost some positions. However, in late trade, the GBP/USD has managed to grow.

The January - March Japanese GDP was revised to the positive side and led to the dollar/yen decrease. The national currency devaluation affects positively the Japanese economy. These numbers show the highest positive growth since February.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro / dollar has been showing a high volatility since the summer beginning which may be related to the liquidity drop  in the summer months. We have seen quite contradictory movements in major currency pairs in the last 2 weeks. The weak UK trade balance may support the cross-rate EUR/GBP which in turn will allow the pair EUR/USD to test the level of 1.1450.

The Friday's dollar growth was offset by the strong euro growth. Buyers not only managed to get out of the descending channel, but also to break through two resistance level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.1450, 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expected the trade balance release would not be able to please the traders with strong data. The release showed -1.202B.

The pound revaluation against the euro together with the manufacturing sector weakness point to that the data will not be very delightful. The UK government bond yields declined to their counterparts from the US and Germany that might also put pressure on the "cable".

We did not get the downward trend continuation yesterday. The price corrected upwards to 1.5390 on the low volumes. The level of 1.5550 plays the role of the key resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5390 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5460, 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish sentiment changed to bearish, despite the Japan and the United States important macroeconomic statistics lack. There was the bond yields negative differential expansion in Japan and the US markets which is a positive factor for the dollar. At the same time the Japanese currency devaluation has a positive effect on the economy of Japan - the current account balance shows a high positive gain since February. However it did not allow the pair to continue the growth.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 123/50 breakthrough down the way to the support 12240 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the German 10-years bond yields rapid growth. At the moment the German 10-year bond yields reached the mark of 1.02%. However, the pair fell by the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD had increased as well amid the April UK industrial production positive release and high oil prices. Nevertheless, the pair slightly fell at the end of the day.

The chief newsmaker has rightly become the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda who noted in his speech that the Japanese yen is oversold. Against this background, the pair USD/JPY had decreased. By the end of the day the pair showed a growth.

In May the US domestic market car sales increased by more than 1 million units. The Conference Board indicator of consumer confidence indicator increased by 1.1 p at the end of May in comparison with the previous month which also points to the strong data output. The initial jobless claims release came out at the level of 279 000 against forecasted 275 000.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders' attention was focused on the US statistics. The May retail sales report will determine the US consumer activity on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 17 of June. Leading indicators point out to the positive data output. The May retail sales report showed a growth by 1.2%.

There was a false resistance level of 1.1260 breakthrough that is a good signal towards the downward trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.1450, 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was in demand amid the "black gold" price growth. The Brent crude oil has consolidated above the mark of $ 66 barrel amid the US inventories decline which is a negative factor for the US dollar. It should also be noted that the British pound is supported by the pair EUR / GBP quotations decrease.

The UK 10-year negative bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts which is also a bearish factor for the pair.

Thanks to the two resistance levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460 breakthrough buyers have strengthened their position in this market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movment. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment dominated amid the traders' escape from the US dollar and amid the Mr. Kuroda statements, concerning the oversold Japanese yen. Later, however, there was a demand for the dollar. The positive retail sales may contribute to the US two-years bond yields above 4-year maximum of 0.752% which had a positive impact on the US dollar.

After a decline more than 200 points the price recovered its position.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50, 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar increased amid the positive US statistics. Earlier the Swiss franc had strengthened its position. The dollar came under pressure after the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda's comments. His words provoked the US dollar sales against the major currencies. Also, the frank grew up as a safe haven currency due to Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

15.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The foreign exchange market is still living in conditions of high volatility and fundamental unpredictability. The investors' attitude towards the US retail sales positive release was quite sluggish; the Treasury two-year bond yields have hardly exceeded the last week maximum level as soon as there was the rebound to the previous positions. The S & P agency has downgraded the Greece sovereign rating to CCC with a negative forecast. In the press release it was stated that the S & P agency assesses the very high default probability within the next 12 months. And at once the Greece stock market increased by 8% at the end of the day! The Greece and the Germany bond yields have declined that point out to the low risk. The pair EUR/USD had decreased amid the US retail sales positive data for May. Nevertheless, the euro showed a slight growth at the end of the trades.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had declined- the pair EUR/GBP quotations decline restrained the British pound sales. However the pair increased on Friday’s trades.

The US positive statistics with the upward trend in the US and the Japanese stock market supported demand for the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had increased. Nevertheless the pair closed the trades with a growth.

The June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came out at the level of 94.6. It was expected at the level of 91.4.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay attention is drawn to the April euro area industrial production report. The Old World leading economies manufacturing sector indicators showed mixed trends: Germany and Spain have reported about an increase while France reported about a decrease by 0.9%. The Markit Economics PMI is showing a moderately positive trend. The April PMI increased by 0.1% m/m and 0.8% y/y. The forecast was 0.4% m/m и 1.1% y/y.

After buyers failed to break through above the resistance level of 1.1260 (there was false breakthrough), the price declined downwards to the resistance level of 1.1150 where there is the sloping resistance line of 1.1260 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and from a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.1450. After breaking 1.1450 the buyers may go to 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Great Britain did not please traders with the interesting report publication and in this connection we should pay attention to the US macroeconomic data. The leading indicator points out to the Michigan University PPI and Consumer Confidence positive data output which may contribute to the demand for the dollar. The US and the UK negative bond yields are increasing which is a bearish factor for the British pound. The June Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data showed 94.6. The forecast was 91.4.

The pound upward trend remained stable. Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.5550 upwards the price closed the trades above this mark.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 1.5670.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last week there was a bullish sentiment in the world leading stock exchanges that indicate demand for the risky assets. In its turn, it is a positive factor for the pair dollar/yen. On the other hand, traders reacted quite sluggish to the May US retail sales positive statistics.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to consider short positions with the first target – 122.40. After fixing below the first target, the level 121.60 will become the next one.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The solid retail sales data supported the dollar against the franc. The US retail sales was + 1.2% against the expected + 1.2% in May. The initial jobless claims reached 279k against forecasted 277.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

17.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD was in the flat amid the risk growth from the Greece part and the US industrial production negative statistics. By the end of the trades the pair fell.

There was a demand for a pound after the US weak industrial production release publication and the trading day the GBP/USD ended with the quotations growth.

During the day the pair USD/JPY was in the narrow flat. On the one hand, bears shorted amid the world stock markets sales. On the other hand, bulls built up long positions on dips based on the uptrend continuation.

Greece continues to draw the markets' attention. The new week started with another negotiations failure with the Greece international creditors that increases concerns about the country possible exit from the EU. The Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis rejected the possibility of the Greek exit from the EU: the Euro group finance ministers shall meet on Thursday and analysts say it will be the last chance for Greece which will have to pay 1.6 billion euro ($ 1.80 billion) to IMF on 30 June. The current financial aid program also ends this day.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The debt market dynamics shows the lack of the euro demand. The Greece and Germany negative bond yields significant increase amid the lack of compromise between Athens and creditors increases the risks for the euro. On the other hand, the "black gold" decrease has a positive impact on the US dollar. These two factors are negative for the European currency. However, the US dollar will not be always in demand.

The pair euro/dollar has been correcting for the third consecutive week. Two previous levels of 1.1260 breakthrough were followed by the short-term prices rebounds downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and from a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1260 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK consumer price index rose up again by 0.2% in May on the month basis as the previous month. The value is in line with expectations. The labor market indicators point out to the consumer prices increase there was the unemployment decrease and average earnings increase in the beginning of spring. The Bank of England indicated that inflation would be negative in the short term.

From the technical point of view, the upward trend remains stable due to the resistance level of 1.5550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 1.5670. After breaking 1.5670 the buyers may go to 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

There was the flat within the range of 122.85 -123.80. On the one hand, the world leading stock markets sales put pressure on the pair USD/JPY as investors close their carry trade orders as a result there was a
demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. However, in general, all traders are now hiding in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting results announcement.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670. After fixing below the first target, the level of 121.60 will become the next one.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The main event of the day was the US Federal two-day meeting results announcement. Most the world leading investment banks' economists expect the Federal Reserve positive forecasts still the FOMC representatives sent the dollar to the knockout. The key forecasts for GDP, unemployment and interest rates have been revised to the negative directions which together with uncertainty in relation to the federal funds rate first increase have had significant pressure on the US dollar.

In the light of this the pair EUR/USD has increased, the pair GBP/USD has increased as well, the pair USD/JPY has fallen.

There was the Euro group meeting where they discussed "the Greek debt" solutions. The Greece and the Germany 10-year government bond yields have been increasing for four trading days in a row that pointed out to the low probability of a compromise. Even if the parties were able to reach a consensus - the negotiations would be very long.

The USA published a weekly initial jobless claims report. There was 267 thousand claims last week, While analysts had expected 276 thousand.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US Fed deprived the dollar bulls all the trumps. They level the unemployment and GDP evaluation for the period 2015-2017 years which was negatively perceived by traders. The only thing that was left unchanged was the inflation forecast, but it is not clearly enough yet. The main event of the day was the US inflation data release. The data showed 0.1% m/m and 1.7% y/y. The forecast was 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y. And we cannot ignore the situation around Greece.

Buyers have reached the strong resistance level of 1.1450 the third time for three weeks. They have reached the level amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1450 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the May UK retail sales data. We mark the average earnings growth acceleration at the end of March and April which indicates the consumer spending increase. In this context, we expect the data output bit better than the forecasted medians. The data shed a growth by 0.2% m/m и 4.6% y/y

In view of the US Federal Reserve negative economic forecasts - the pair may reach the psychological level of 1.5950 in the short term.

At the session the British pound session significantly strengthened against the US dollar, breaking through the two strong resistance levels: 1.5670, 1.5775. The levels breakthrough was amid the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5775, the next one is 1.5670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5950, the next one is 1.6080.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5775 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5950, 1.6080.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

After the Fed statistics publication the Japanese yen has strengthened less against the dollar among the majors. In the short term we may expect the quotations decrease as the US Federal Reserve chairman J. Yellen pointed out that they have to see "more convincing evidence" of sustained moderate economic growth to start the interest rates raising.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance level of 123.50, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 122.40, 121.60 and 120.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown rapidly against the dollar but then it fell again. The franc growth catalyst was the FOMC meeting results and the regulator head comments.

So, the Fed kept the base rate level forecast at the end of the year while lowering it for the next year. Until the end of 2015 they expect the interest rates increase to 0.625% which implies the twice increase by 25 bp. In the short term the rate is expected to reach 1.625% which is below the March forecast of 1.875%. In accordance with the FOMC statements the interest rate remains within the range of 0.25% to 0.50%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9370.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9160. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.