Daily Market Analysis – 05th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

RBA Cuts Interest Rates to Record Low

Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.0%, to provide further stimulus to the economy. Meanwhile Australia's trade balance has stayed in deficit of $1.3B.

AUDUSD rose to 0.7900 following the rate cut, amid speculation that the RBA may be unwilling to cut further.

The Australian dollar has declined against US dollar over the past year, due to the falling commodity prices.

EURUSD is trading lower at 1.1110 ahead Of the European Commission Economic Growth forecast due today.

Greek negotiations continue this week and a deal can be achieved by the Euro group meeting on 11 May, with Greece having to repay €763 million in loans to the IMF.

The U.K. election polls show both major parties Conservatives and Labour as being head-to-head arriving at overall majority is unlikely.

GBPUSD remains under pressure at 1.5105 before polls and uncertain UK election.

Gold rebounded from a 6-week low to 1188.65 after weak Chinese PMI, while Silver is flat this morning at 16.40

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 07th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

German Bund yields lift Euro

German 10-year bond yields reached a four-month high of 0.595 percent lifting the Euro above 1.1340

German Bunds yields are at the highest after European Central Bank announced its intention to launch QE.

EURUSD is trading higher at 1.1343 ahead of the Germany's construction PMI data and the US initial jobless claims data.

UK goes to the polls today and it is still uncertain if we will get a hung Parliament in the UK.

GBPUSD is in the range of 1.5240 and traders expect heavy market volatility ahead of the Elections.

Australia's unemployment rate climbed to 6.2% as expected with a loss of 2.9K jobs. AUDUSD peaked to 0.8000 after the jobs report.

Australian bond yields rose further on Wednesday morning to above 2.8 per cent after the RBA decision.

Crude oil pulled back in Asian trading session, after rallying to new 2015 highs of 62.85 presently at 61.36

Gold is trading lower in the Asian session at 1187.68 while Silver is at 16.45

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 11th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

US Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 223K in April

US Non-Farm Payrolls rose by  223K in April which was just below market expectations for a 230,000 increase.

The unemployment rate was down to 5.4% and Participation Rate was at 62.8%. Following the NFP USD remained strong as the unemployment rate in the US plunged to a 7-year low.

EURUSD is trading lower in the Asian trading session at 1.1155 ahead of the Euro group Finance Ministers meeting in Brussels today.

The People’s Bank of China lowered interest rates to 5.1% as inflation figures fell short of expectations.

Asian markets are up after the PBOC cut its interest rates and a strong US NFP report on Friday.

Bank of England will announce its monetary policy decisions today with main focus on the quarterly inflation report.

In Canada Jobs report came with a loss of 19.7K jobs while the unemployment rate is at 6.8%.

WTI futures dropped to $59.22 per barrel on Monday on account of strong US dollar.

Gold is trading lower in the Asian trading session at 1187.20 after China rate cut while Silver is flat at 16.40

11th May 2015 – 06:36hrs GMT

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 13th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Bond Sell off weighs on Indices and Stocks Globally

A sharp sell-off in government bonds is dragging major global Indices lower. The global Bond sell off has left many investors nervous with FTSE100, S&P 500 and Nasdaq100 ending in red.

The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 2.30%, German 10-year Bunds rose to 0.713%, Italian 10-year bonds rose to 1.867% while Spain's 10-year bonds rose to 1.819%

After Greece paid 750 million euros to the IMF on Monday, its financial condition remains weak. Following the news Euro rose more than 100 pips to cross 1.1260 yesterday.

In Australia wage price index fell to 0.5% AUDUSD is high on Australian yields and that the home loans approval rose to 1.6% in March.

In China Retail Sales fell to 10.0%, Industrial Production is at 5.9% while Fixed Assets Rural is at 12.0%

UK manufacturing production rose to 0.4% while analyst’s expectations were for a 0.3% increase. Following the news GBPUSD climbed to 1.5700

WTI Crude Oil rose to 60.75 amid Bond selloff and the news that Saudi has launched airstrike on Yemen again.

Gold is trading higher in the Asian trading session at 1194.70 after the slump in the global equity markets while Silver extends its gains at 16.63

13th May 2015 – 06:54hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 15th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Stock markets surge as US Initial Jobless Claims drop to 264K

US unemployment claims unexpectedly dropped to 264,000 which reflect that the labor market condition is strong. Following the news Stock markets surged and ended in Green, while Euro pulled away from its 3 month peak.

European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi said that QE will remain in place and ECB will continue its monthly 60 billion euro bond buying programme.

In Greece there is a potential risk that it will default on its debt which could create panic in the currency markets. Meanwhile talks about the €7.2 billion bailout funds that Greece needs will continue today.

In China Premier Li Keqiang said there are signs of economic growth following which Asian markets surged. Hang Seng index was up 0.52% while Nikkei 225 was up 0.53%

In Canada new home prices remain unchanged in March while sales of existing homes surged 4.1%.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the underlying trend in inflation has improved steadily and saw no need for further easing now.

Crude Oil is down in Asia at 60.50$ amid news that IEA expects Oil supply to remain High.

Gold remains bullish trading at 1219.33 in the Asian trading session, while Silver is flat at 17.35

15th May 2015 – 07:38hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 19th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Asian markets and Euro lower on Greece concerns

Asian markets are down on renewed concerns over Greece and Euro remains under pressure trading below 1.1300 Investors fear of a Greek bankruptcy as the Greek Prime Minister Alexi Tsipras said the country is running out of funds.

Greek Finance minister said on Monday that it is getting closer to a deal with its lenders that would help it meet debt repayments next month.

The possibility of a Greek default or exit from the Eurozone can cause big intraday swings and High volatility in the coming weeks.

Eurozone is due to release German ZEW Economic sentiment and Euro-Zone CPI today, while UK will release its Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index.

The Australian dollar sank after the Reserve Bank of Australia released minutes showing the board continued to see it as too strong given the current economic conditions.

The RBA said that further interest rate cuts are possible stating that members did not see this as limiting the board's scope for any action that might be appropriate at future meetings.

NZDUSD was up after the RBNZ reported higher inflation expectations going forward. The central bank said expectations were for a gain of 1.32% from 1.11% seen in the first quarter.

Crude Oil is down at 59.73$ due to a stronger US Dollar and the news that Saudi exports reached a 7-year high.

Gold is trading lower this morning at 1219.70 while Silver is weak at 17.39

19th May 2015 – 07:29hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 21st May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

FOMC Minutes show reduced likelihood of June Rate Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes indicate a consensus that the weakness in Q1 growth was transitory and that some of the recent weakness in the pace of economic activity might persist. The minutes show a reduced likelihood of a June rate hike with only "a few" participants expecting conditions would justify raising the fed funds rate at that time.

Many participants, however, thought it unlikely that the data available in June would provide sufficient confirmation that the conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate had been satisfied, al-though they generally did not rule out this possibility.

However, most participants felt that the timing of the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would appropriately be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis and would depend on the evolution of economic conditions and the outlook.
In UK Bank of England minutes show consensus to maintain the benchmark interest rate at all-time low of 0.5% this month and to keep the size of the central bank's bond portfolio at 375 billion pounds.

According to Bank of England "While there was a range of views over the most likely future path for bank rate, all members agreed that it was more likely than not that bank rate would rise over the three-year forecast period".

In Canada wholesale sales rebounded in March which is a positive sign for Canada's economy.

According to the Bank of Canada Governor- Stephen Poloz "Not only are the headwinds of the global financial crisis still blowing, but now we're also dealing with lower prices for oil and other key commodities, which previously were a key growth engine for us".

Crude Oil is higher in the Asian trading session at 59.34$ as Fed suggested that a rate hike in June is unlikely.

Gold is trading lower this morning at 1210.33 while Silver is up at 17.20

21st  May 2015 – 07:58hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 25th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Euro under pressure as Greece is set to default on Debt Repayment Loans

Greece is set to default on Debt repayment loans of €1.6billion which are due to IMF next month as it does not have the funds.

Greek Interior minister, Nikos Voutsis said that Greece needs to strike a deal with its European creditors soon or it would default on repayments to the International Monetary Fund. He said "This money will not be given and is not there to be given.”

If Greece is unable to repay its loans to the IMF, it would deepen the country’s economic crisis, force capital controls and foreclosure of Greek banks.

Euro is under pressure as Greek debt issue remains unresolved trading at 1.0976 in the Asian trading session. Outcome of the elections in Spain also weigh down on Euro with expectations of low liquidity amid market holidays in the UK, Germany and the US.

In USA Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in the month of April, while CPI YoY rate remained negative, at -0.2% in April. The annual increase in core prices remained unchanged at 1.8%.

US Core Inflation in April, excluding Food and Energy, showed the biggest gain since January 2013.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said on Friday "If the economy continues to improve as I expect, I think it will be appropriate at some point this year to take the initial step to raise the federal funds rate target".

With upbeat US Inflation data and comments made by Yellen US Dollar strengthened against its major counterparts on Friday with EURUSD falling more than 200pips from its high of 1.1197

Crude Oil is trading at $59.60 on account of strong US Dollar ahead of US holiday.

Gold prices are flat in Asia at 1203.57 on the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year while Silver is down at 17.02

25th May 2015 – 08:09hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 27th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Greek Talks Continue with G7 meeting in Dresden

G7 Finance ministers and Central bank chiefs begin a three-day meeting in Dresden today. Greece will be discussed and markets are looking for cues from the today’s meeting.

As time is running out Greece is close to a default on its next debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund.

Greece needs to repay €300m on 5 June, with €1.6 billion in total due to be repaid to the IMF next month. An official from Eurozone stated “There is the possibility of putting together several payments that Greece would need to make to the IMF in the course of June and then just make one payment.”

The Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis said ""It would be a disaster for everyone involved. It would be a disaster primarily for the Greek social economy, but it would also be the beginning of the end of the common currency project in Europe".

The IMF's MD Christine Lagarde said that an extension will not be granted, even with additional economic reforms, and that no developed nation has defaulted on the IMF in 30 years.
In UK retail sales growth surged in May to +51 while analyst expectations were at +17.

UK Confederation of British Industry's Director said "Low inflation, which we expect to remain below 1% for the rest of the year, has given household incomes a much-needed boost and greater spending power".

Bank of Japan said that risks to Inflation are on the downside and Growth is slow.

According to the minutes released by BOJ "With regard to the baseline scenario for prices, many members expressed the view that there was considerable uncertainty, mainly in developments in medium- to long-term inflation expectations, and risks on the price front were skewed to the downside".

FED Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer stated "The tightening of U.S. policy will begin only when the US expansion has advanced far enough - when we have seen further improvement in the labor market and when we are reasonably confident that the inflation rate will rise to our 2% goal. If foreign growth is weaker than anticipated, the consequences for the US economy could lead the Fed to remove accommodation more slowly than otherwise".

Crude Oil is trading lower at $58.90 on account of strong US Dollar.

Gold prices are lower in Asia at 1188.99 while Silver is flat at 16.78

27th May 2015 – 08:40hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 29th May, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

US Initial Jobless Claims Rise, Pending Home Sales reach a 9-Year High

In US the number of Americans filing for Initial Jobless benefits rose last week to 282K while analyst expectations were at 270K.

US pending home sales soared to a nine-year high in April in a strong start to the prime spring season, according to the National Association of Realtors. The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index rose 3.4% in April to a level of 108.7 which is the highest level since May 2006.

Jim O'Sullivan, US economist said "Housing is an important reason why the trend in growth looks much stronger for non-manufacturing and the overall economy, than for manufacturing now".

This uptrend in home sales came after a growth in US Jobs sector, which has increased demand to buy houses.

UK GDP expanded by 0.3% while analyst expectations were for a 0.4% increase. Economic growth slowed due to the service sector performing worse than expected and a widening UK trade deficit.

In Japan Inflation and Industrial production increased more than expected. Japan's Industrial production increased 1.0% in April, while inflation data showed the CPI moving higher 0.2% in May.

USD/JPY is steady at 13-year highs due to increased demand for US Dollar and the indications that the US economy is gaining momentum after a slowdown in the first quarter.

NZDUSD fell to 0.7115 undermined by New Zealand's lac of business optimism and estimates of inflation below the central bank's target.

In a report, European Central Bank said that Euro Zone M3 Money Supply rose to 5.3%. It is the amount of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks.

The Euro Zone Consumer and Business Confidence was stable in May at 103.8, overall economic sentiment was mixed across the Euro zone. While it improved in Germany, France, and the Netherlands, it dropped in Italy and Greece.

Howard Archer, Chief UK and European Economist said "The fact that overall Eurozone economic sentiment held up well in May could ease concern that the Eurozone's recovery is starting to flag as the recent stimulus it has received is diluted by a recent firming in the euro, oil prices and bond yields from very low levels".

Crude Oil is trading higher at $58.60 after US Crude Stockpile fell for 4th Week.

Gold is trading stronger in the Asia at 1189.63 while Silver has recovered its losses at 16.75

29th May 2015 – 09:32hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 02nd June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

US ISM Manufacturing Index Increased to a 3-month high in May

US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index increased to a 3-month high in May as manufacturing activity in the US expanded at a faster pace than expected.

US Manufacturing expanded in May as the PMI registered 52.8 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the April reading of 51.5 percent, indicating growth in manufacturing for the 29th consecutive month.

US consumer spending remained flat in April as households cut back on purchases of luxury items and continued to increase savings.

"While the US economy still looks set to rebound from the decline seen in the first quarter, the extent of the second quarter recovery therefore remains highly uncertain and could well disappoint. It therefore remains too early to take a reliable reading on the health of the economy and the data flow over the summer will be crucial in determining the timing of the first Fed rate hike." - said Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit.

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at a record low 2.0 percent, in line with analysts' expectations. Following the news Australian dollar remained bullish and AUDUSD touched a high of 0.7700

"There are a lot of factors influencing the currency. One of those is probably tomorrow, the GDP number for the first quarter. It's probably going to be very strong," Matthew Circosta, an analyst at Moody's Analytics, told CNBC. "But moving forward, you'll see that Aussie dollar weakness coming through in the next few months, because the U.S. is going to be raising interest rates."

UK manufacturing activity increased in May to 52.0 which accounts for about 10% of the UK economy.

"Expectations of a broad rebound in U.K. economic growth during the second quarter of the year is called into question by these readings" – said Rob Dobson, senior economist at Markit.

Greek debt negotiations continue between Greece and its European creditors. IMF chief Christine Lagarde, ECB president Mario Draghi, French president Francois Hollande and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker met yesterday to give out an offer for Greece to consider.

Crude Oil is trading higher at $60.90 ahead of weekly US supply data.
Gold is trading lower in the Asia at 1187.26 while Silver is weak at 16.65

02nd June 2015 – 09:54hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

Daily Market Analysis – 04th June, 2015
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Greek deal hopes and Euro zone debt yields lift Euro

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said after talking with the senior EU officials that Greece was close to a deal with its creditors and it would make a payment due to the IMF on Friday.

"It was a good, constructive meeting. Progress was made in understanding each other's positions on the basis of various proposals. It was agreed that they will meet again. Intense work will continue." - Statement given by the European Commission.

Greece has enough cash to repay a €300 million payment due to the IMF on Friday.

German 10-year bond yields climbed to 0.887 percent, after the ECB raised its inflation forecast for the year 2015.

The 10 year US Treasury yields reached at 2.3696% the highest level since Nov 2014.

"The biggest positive about the bond market weakness is that yields’ going higher is a net positive for all of the financials. Higher yields on fixed income translate into higher rates and that increases the net interest margin for financials," - Michael James, MD Wedbush Securities, Los Angeles.

EURUSD is trading at 1.1345 in the European trading session having touched a high of 1.1378

European Central Bank kept its benchmark rates unchanged at 0.05 percent and increased its forecast for inflation in the Eurozone this year to 0.3 percent.

ECB President said bond buying program of 60 billion euros per month will continue till September 2016 with an aim to inject liquidity into the financial system and drive up the Eurozone’s low rate of inflation.

Draghi said "The full implementation of all our monetary policy measures will provide the necessary support to the euro area's economy."

On Greek Debt deal Draghi called for a strong agreement between Greece and its Creditors saying "A strong agreement is one that produces growth, that has social fairness but that is also fiscally sustainable and addresses the remaining sources or factors of financial instability in the financial sector."

In China HSBC PMI climbed to 53.5 the highest level in 8 months as growth remains sluggish in China.

"Overall, growth momentum in China appears relatively weak, weighed down by an ongoing deterioration in manufacturing operating conditions" - Annabel Fiddes, economist at Markit.

In UK the services PMI declined to 56.5 in May, while the UK's economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year. The UK service sector forms a large part of the economy.

"Additionally, construction firms in UK experienced an upturn in new business growth from April's near two-year low and job creation was the fastest recorded so far in 2015" - Tim Moore, Markit.

Crude Oil is trading lower at $59.56 after Russian Energy Minister's confirmation that the OPEC would not cut output at Friday's meeting.

Gold is trading lower in the Asia at 1182.65 while Silver is flat at 16.46

04th June 2015 – 09:30hrs GMT

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.