Topic: Daily market news by Cozfx

COZforex: GBP/USD weekly outlook for 17 to 21Nov

COZforex: The pound dropped to fresh 14-month lows against the dollar on Friday, after the Bank of England said inflation was likely to slow further, prompting investors to delay expectations for a UK rate hike until late next year.

GBP/USD dropped to lows of 1.5594, the weakest since September 2013, before pulling back to 1.5671 in late trade, off 0.25% for the day. The pair ended the week with losses of 1.32%.

Sterling remained broadly weaker after the BoE said in its closely watched quarterly inflation report on Wednesday that inflation is likely remain below its 2% target in the near term and fall below 1% at some point during the next 6 months.
The bank said it now expects inflation to take 3 years to return to its 2% target.

The annual rate of UK inflation dropped to a 5 year low of 1.2% in September.

BoE Governor Mark Carney noted that since August markets had pushed back expectations for a rate increase to October of next year and added that investors were right to delay expectations.

The bank said it continued to expect economic growth of 3.5% this year but pared its forecast for growth in 2015 to 2.9% from 3.1% in August.

In the US, data on Friday showed that retail sales rise 0.3% in October, ahead of forecasts for a 0.2% increase.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting and Thursday’s report on the US consumer price index. Tuesday’s report on UK inflation and Wednesday’s BoE minutes will also be closely watched.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: USD/CAD slips after mixed US housing data

COZforex: The US dollar pared back gains against the Canadian dollar on Wednesday following the release of some mixed US housing data, as investors awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting later in the day.

USD/CAD was last up 0.36% to 1.1339, off session highs of 1.1355. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.1280, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.1228. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1361, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1390.

The greenback gave up some gain after data showed that US housing starts dropped unexpectedly in October. The Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell 2.8% to an annual rate of 1.009 million, compared to expectations for a rate of 1.025 million.

However, the report said the decline was due to a 15.4% drop in the volatile multi-family home segment, while starts for single-family homes, the largest part of the market, rose to their highest level in a year.

The number of building permits issued last month jumped 4.8% to 1.080 million, the most since June 2008.

Investors were waiting the minutes of the Fed’s October meeting, which were expected to highlight the growing monetary policy divergence between the U.S. central bank and its peers in Europe and Japan.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Euro trading lower ahead of the Euro-zone’s inflation data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR dropped 0.36% against the USD and closed at 1.2461.

Yesterday, data from Germany indicated that the nation’s monthly consumer prices remained flat in November, in line with market expectations and following a drop of 0.3% registered in the prior month. In addition, unemployment rate remained steady at 6.6% in November, lower than market expectations for a rise to a level of 6.7%. Meanwhile, the nation’s GfK consumer confidence index rise to 8.7 in December, higher than market expectations for an advance to a reading of 8.6. The index had recorded a level of 8.5 in the prior month.

In other economic news, the Euro-zone’s economic sentiment indicator registered an unexpected rise to a level of 100.8 in November, compared to market expectations of a drop to 100.3, while the region’s industrial confidence index improved unexpectedly to a level of -4.3 in November, compared to market expectations of a decline to a level of -5.5. On the other hand, M3 money supply in the Euro-zone advanced 2.5% in on an annual basis in October, compared to a similar rise in the previous month, while market anticipations were for it to advance 2.6%.

Separately, the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, urged the region’s member nation governments to implement economic reforms in their respective nations, as failure to do so might “threaten the essential cohesion of the Union”. Furthermore, he cautioned the 18-member currency bloc that unemployment, lack of productivity and structural reforms are the three major risks surrounding the Euro-economy.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.2421, and a decline through could take it to the next support level of 1.2394. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.2500, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.2551.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s crucial CPI data, scheduled in a few hours.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: USD/CAD little changed close to 5-year highs

COZforex: The US dollar was steady against the Canadian dollar on Monday, hovering close to 5 year highs as Friday’s strong US employment report continued to underpin demand for the greenback.

USD/CAD was at 1.1436, not far from Friday’s peaks of 1.1475, the highest since July 2009. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.1394 and a drop through could take it to the next support level of 1.1343. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1487, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1528.

The greenback remained broadly stronger after data on Friday showed that the US economy added 321,000 jobs in November, far more than the 225,000 forecast by economists and the largest monthly increase in almost three years.

September’s figure was revised up to 243,000 from a previously reported 214,000 and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at a 6 year low of 5.8%.

The unusually strong data saw investors bring forward expectations for the first hike in US interest rates to mid-2015 from September 2015 before the report.

In Canada, data on Friday showed that the economy unexpectedly shed 10,700 jobs last month, following two months of strong jobs growth, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.6% from 6.5% in October.

The Canadian dollar showed little reaction after data on Monday showed that the number of new building permits issued in Canada rose just 0.7% in October, trailing forecasts for a gain of 2.1%. Another report showed that Canadian housing starts rose to 195,600 units in November from October’s total of 183,700 units.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: USD/CAD hits 5-year highs after upbeat US data

COZforex: The US dollar rise to fresh 5 year highs against the Canadian dollar on Thursday as stronger than forecast data on US retail sales and jobless claims confirmed that the economic recovery is on track.

USD/CAD was up 0.43% to 1.1529, the most since July 2009, from around 1.1477 ahead of the data. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/CAD is expected to find support at 1.1431, and a fall through could take it to the next support line of 1.1397. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1501, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1538.

The greenback moved higher after the Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefit unexpectedly dropped by 3,000 last week, to 294,000.

The dollar received an additional boost after the Commerce Department reported that US retail sales rose 0.7% last month, beating expectations for a gain of 0.4%. October’s figure was revised up to 0.5% from a previously reported gain of 0.3%.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, climbed 0.5% in November, well ahead of expectations for a 0.1% increase.

Last week’s strong US jobs report for November prompted investors to bring forward expectations for the first hike in interest rates to mid-2015 from September 2015 ahead of the data.

In Canada, data on Thursday showed that the new housing price index rose 0.1% in October, broadly in line with forecasts.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: EUR/CHF closes in on 26-month lows after SNB holds

COZforex: The euro slid against the Swiss franc on Thursday, closing in on 26-month lows after the Swiss National Bank left rates unchanged and reiterated that it will defend the 1.20 per euro exchange rate cap.

EUR/CHF slid 0.11% to 1.2014 from around 1.2038 ahead of the announcement. The pair fell to lows of 1.2007 on November 19, the weakest level since September 2012.

The SNB left rates unchanged at zero to 0.25% and warned that deflation risks have risen. It noted that appreciably lower oil prices will push inflation into negative territory during the next four quarters.The bank said it now expects inflation to be flat this year and to grow just 0.1% in 2015, down from a previous forecast of 0.2%.The bank also reiterated its pledge to defend the exchange rate floor against the euro with the “utmost determination”. It is prepared to buy foreign currency in “unlimited quantities” for this purpose.

Ahead of the meeting there had been speculation that the SNB could prepare a move towards negative interest rates as the prospect of full blown quantitative easing by the European Central Bank has pressured the euro lower.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Kiwi slightly weaker after balance of payments deficit

COZforex: The New Zealand dollar eased slightly in Asia early Wednesday as the balance of payments came in near expectations.

New Zealand recorded a third quarter current account deficit of NZ$5 billion, compared to a gap of NZ$5.35 billion expected, and 2.6% of GDP.

NZD/USD traded at 0.7795, down 0.02%, after the data. AUD/USD traded at 0.8219, down 0.01% and USD/JPY held at 116.43, up 0.01% ahead of data sets in both countries.

Overnight, the dollar traded largely lower against most major currencies on Tuesday after data revealed groundbreaking on new homes in the U.S. came in softer than expected in November. US housing starts fell unexpectedly last month, official data showed on Tuesday.

The Census Bureau reported earlier that the number of housing starts dropped to 1.028 million units in November from 1.045 million in the preceding month, whose figure was revised up from 1.009 million.
COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley had expected the number of housing starts to rise to 1.030 million last month.

While a broader analysis of the US housing sector still points to recovery, setbacks such as Tuesday's reports softened the greenback, namely as investors jumped to the sidelines to await the Federal Reserve's statement on monetary policy and interest rates due out on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, expect markets to move on the Federal Reserve's statement on monetary policy and interest rates. Elsewhere, the U.S. is to release data on consumer inflation and the current account.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: EUR/USD drops to 2-year lows after strong US data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR dropped 0.46% against the USD and closed at 1.2171. The greenback traded on a stronger footing after the US 3Q GDP registered its strongest expansion in 11 years, thus raising speculations of a likely increase in the US interest rate by the Fed.

The greenback was further supported after the US consumer sentiment jumped to a level of 93.6 in December, beating market expectations of a fall to a reading of 93.5 and following a level of 93.8 recorded in November, indicating that the US consumers remained upbeat about the nation’s economy.

In other economic news, the US durable goods orders unexpectedly retreated 0.7% in November, compared to a 0.3% gain recorded in the preceding month. Market expectations were for it to rise 3.0%. Additionally, new home sales surprisingly dropped 1.6% on a monthly basis, marking a 4-month low level in November and confounding market expectations of a 0.4% increase. It had plunged 2.2% in the preceding month.

On the other hand, personal income in the US rise 0.4% in November, at par with market expectations, while personal spending advanced 0.6% in November, following a revised rise of 0.3% registered in the prior month.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.2145 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.2113. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.2227, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.2278.

Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by the US weekly initial jobless claims data, scheduled later today.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: GBP/USD edges higher but upside seen limited

COZforex: The pound edged higher against the US dollar on Tuesday, but gains were expected to remain limited as demand for the greenback continued to be underpinned and concerns over political instability in Greece still weighed on market sentiment.

GBP/USD hit 1.5548 amid European morning trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5535, adding 0.08%. In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, GBP/USD was likely to find support at 1.5484, the low of December 23 and a 16-month low and resistance at 1.5667, the high of December 22.

The dollar remained broadly supported after final data last week showed that US gross domestic product rise 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of 4.3% and up from 3.9% in the 3 months to June.

The strong data fuelled further optimism over the strength of the US economic recovery and added to expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next year.

Earlier Tuesday, the Nationwide Building Society said that UK house price inflation rise 0.2% this month, confounding expectations for an increase of 0.3%, after a 0.3% gain in November.

Year-on-year, UK house prices rise 7.2% in December, below expectations for a 7.5% gain, after an increase of 8.5% the previous month.

Later in the day, the US was to release data on consumer confidence.


(Cozforex UK)

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COZfx: Australia’s trade deficit expanded less than expected

COZforex: For the past trading session, the AUD strengthened 0.16% against the USD to close at 0.8087, rebounding from its previous session losses.

In commodities, LME Copper prices dropped 1.47% or $93.0/MT to $6216.0/MT. Meanwhile, Aluminium prices dropped 1.56% or $28.5/MT to $1793.0/MT.

Early morning data showed that Australia’s trade deficit expanded less than expected to A$925.0 million in November, from a revised deficit of A$877.0 million recorded in the previous month. Markets were expecting the nation’s trade deficit to increase to A$1600.0 million.

Elsewhere, in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, the services PMI notched a 3-month high reading of 53.4 in December, up from 53.0 registered in the preceding month.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.8063, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.799. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.8181, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.8226.

Looking ahead, investors await Australia’s AiG performance of service index data, scheduled in the late hours today.



(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: USD/CAD dips but still near 5.5 year highs

COZforex: The US dollar eased against the Canadian dollar on Tuesday but remained close to more than 5.5 year highs as an ongoing selloff in oil prices pressured the commodity-exposed Canadian dollar lower.

USD/CAD dipped 0.13% to 1.1956, but remained close to session highs of 1.1994, the most since April 2009.
The Canadian dollar remained under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday as oil prices extended their selloff.

Crude oil prices fell to almost six-year lows, pressured lower by concerns over a global supply glut. The rout in oil prices has fuelled concerns of exacerbating already low levels of inflation in many major world economies, underpinning safe haven demand for the greenback.

Canada is one of the top global oil producing nations and the loonie has lost almost 3% so far this year amid expectations that the collapse in oil prices will see the Bank of Canada stick to its dovish stance on rates this year.
The single currency remained under pressure amid heightened expectations that the European Central Bank could embark on full blown quantitative easing as soon as its next meeting on January 22.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rise to 92.55, not far from the 12-year peaks of 92.76 scaled last week, supported by weakness in the euro.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Euro trading lower ahead of Germany’s ZEW survey data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rise 0.38% against the USD and closed at 1.1606.

On the macro front, the Euro-zone’s seasonally adjusted current account surplus narrowed to €18.1 billion in November. The region had registered a revised current account surplus of €19.5 billion in October. Meanwhile, construction output in the single-currency region slid 0.1% on a monthly basis in November, following a revised 1.1% rise recorded in prior month.

Early this morning, the IMF cut its global growth forecast for 2015-2016 as it projected that the world economy would expand by 3.5% in 2015 and 3.7% next year, down from its earlier estimation of 3.8% and 4% growth, respectively. Additionally, the fund slashed the economic growth outlook for the Euro-zone to 1.2% in 2015, as compared to its previous forecast of 1.3%. Furthermore, the growth forecasts for the US were revised up to 3.6% from its previous forecast of 3.1%, citing more robust private domestic demand.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.1540 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.1502. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1629, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1679.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by Germany’s ZEW economic survey data, scheduled in few hours.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Gold prices dip in Asia with dollar strength prospects in focus

COZforex: Gold prices eased in Asia on Friday, driven by shifting sentiment on the dollar and the timing for a rate hike as widely expected by the Federal Reserve later this year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery fell 0.20% to $1,262.30 a troy ounce.

A day earlier, copper hit $2.423, a level not seen since June 2009, before settling at $2.505, down 13.8 cents, or 5.24%, as concerns over the global economic outlook and the impact on future demand prospects dampened the appeal of the commodity.

Overnight, gold held on to gains to trade near a four-month high on Thursday, following the release of a mixed bag of U.S. data and after the Swiss National Bank lowered interest rates further into negative territory.

The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits increased by 19,000 last week to 316,000, the highest in almost four months.

Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to decline by 6,000 to 291,000 last week from 297,000 in the preceding week.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that its general business conditions index increased to 10.0 this month from a reading of -3.6 in December. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 5.0 in January.

A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as bullish for gold, as it decreases the relative cost of holding on to the metal, which doesn't offer investors any similar guaranteed payout.

Gold rallied sharply after the SNB announced that it would discontinue the minimum exchange rate of 1.20 per euro, while lowering interest rates further into negative territory.

Lower interest rates can give gold a lift, as it decreases the relative cost of holding on to the metal, which doesn't offer investors any similar guaranteed payout.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Pound trading lower in the Asian session

COZforex: On Friday, GBP traded marginally lower against the USD and closed at 1.5013, as investors shrugged off Britain’s unexpected gain in its monthly retail sales in December.

Retail sales in the UK advanced 0.2% on a MoM basis in December, against market expectations for a 0.7% fall and compared to prior month’s 1.7% rise.

Separately, the BoE Governor, Mark Carney in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, praised the measures adopted by the ECB and advocated that its quantitative easing program was “absolutely necessary to preserve the prospects of medium-term prosperity in Europe”.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.4953 and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.4909. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5039, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.5082.

Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the UK BBA mortgage approvals data, set for release in few hours.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: NZD/USD near 4-year lows after RBNZ, Fed statements

COZforex: The New Zealand dollar edged up against its US counterpart on Thursday, but remained close to a 4 year low after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve indicated that interest rates could start to rise around mid-year.

NZD/USD hit 0.7348 amid early European trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7323, adding 0.10%. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, NZD/USD was likely to find support at 0.7113 and resistance at 0.7494, Wednesday's high.

The New Zealand dollar dropped to a 4 year low against the greenback after the RBNZ held its benchmark interest rate at a record-low 3.50% and signaled that it is prepared to lower borrowing costs further as plunging oil prices dampen inflation.

"Future interest-rate adjustments either up or down, will depend on the emerging flow of economic data," RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler commented.

Separately, official data showed that New Zealand's trade deficit narrowed to NZ$159 million in December from NZ$285 million in November, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of NZ$213 million.
Analysts had expected the trade deficit to narrow to NZ$48 million last month.

In the US, the Fed said on Wednesday that it would keep rates on hold at least until June and reiterated its pledge to be patient on raising interest rates, while acknowledging the solid economic recovery and strong growth in the labor market.

The central bank also said it expected inflation to keep declining in the short term and added that it would take "financial and international developments" into account before deciding when to hike borrowing costs.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Euro gained after weak US data

COZforex: The euro gained ground against the dollar on Friday after data showing that the US economy added far fewer jobs than expected last month prompted investors to push back expectations for higher interest rates.

EUR/USD hit highs of 1.1027 and was last at 1.0970, up 0.83% for the day.

The drop in the dollar came after the report from the Labor Department showed that the US economy added 126,000 new jobs in March, less than half of February’s gain and the smallest increase since December 2013. Economists had forecast jobs growth of 245,000 last month.

February’s figure was revised down to 264,000 from 295,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at a 6.5 year lows of 5.5%, in line with forecasts.

The surprisingly weak report added to concerns over the outlook for economic growth after other recent economic data pointed to a slowdown at the start of the year.

A slowing labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to delay a planned increase in interest rates. Last month the Fed indicated that the first rate increase could come as soon as June, but added that continued improvement in labor markets would be a key factor it would consider.

The drop in the dollar was exacerbated by thin trading conditions due to the Easter holiday weekend. Most markets in Europe were closed and U.S markets traded for shortened hours.

In the week ahead, markets outside the US will remain closed on Monday. The US is to release what will be closely watched data on service sector activity on Monday and the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its March meeting on Wednesday.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: USD/CAD drops to 1-month lows in early trade

COZforex: The US dollar dropped to one-month lows against its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, as demand for the greenback weakened broadly before the highly-anticipated minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting.

USD/CAD hit 1.2388 during early U.S. trade, the pair's lowest since February 25; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2421, declining 0.68%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.2309, the low of January 22 and resistance at 1.2524, Tuesday's high.
Market participants were eyeing the Fed's upcoming meeting minutes for indications on the central bank's next policy moves after Friday's downbeat jobs data fuelled uncertainty over the timing of a rate hike.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 126,000 new jobs in March, less than half of February’s gain and the smallest increase since December 2013.

Also Wednesday, data showed that retail sales in the euro zone fell 0.2% in February, in line with market expectations. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose 3.0% also in line with forecasts.

The report said gasoline sales fell for the first time since September, indicating that the boost to consumer spending from lower oil prices may be waning.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: EUR/USD slips below 1.06, close to a 12-year low

COZforex: The euro continued its steady depreciation against the US dollar on Monday moving close to a 12-year low, as tensions between Greece and its creditors remained high and ahead of a flurry of key US economic data later this week.

EUR/USD lost 0.0034 or 0.32% to 1.0567 as the pair resumed its push toward parity. The pair slipped below 1.06 in European morning trading and fell to a daily-low of 1.0522 just before the start of U.S. morning trading before rebounding throughout the session. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, EUR/USD likely received support at 1.05 its low from Mar. 11 and resistance at 1.10 the high from April 3.

Analysts, investors and policymakers are closely monitoring a number of critical economic indicators over the next few days, following the release of several figures last week that could mostly be construed as disappointing. Economists expect a slight uptick of 1.1% in this week's U.S. Retail Sales Report, as well as a modest increase in the Producer Price Index, both of which are being released on Tuesday.

Analysts, however, have forecasted a 0.3% decline in industrial production from last month and are bracing for a decline in housing starts for March, after the figure dropped sharply by 17% a month earlier. Policymakers also await the release of the Consumer Price Index for the month of March on Friday for a gauge on inflation.
In addition, the European Central Bank is expected to make key rate and monetary policy decisions at a Governing Council meeting on Wednesday. ECB president Mario Draghi is expected to make his first public comments on the euro zone's bond buying program at a press conference following the meeting.

Elsewhere, Greece is reportedly formulating a plan for how it could potentially emerge from a default on its sovereign debt if it is unable to reach an agreement that could unlock critical aid from its euro zone creditors. If the sides cannot agree on a deal before Greece's next payment to the International Monetary Fund, Athens is prepared to withhold up to €2.5 billion of its expenditures, according to the Financial Times.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Yen trading lower after Japan weak data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the USD strengthened 0.30% against the JPY and closed at 119.65.

In economic news, the final leading economic index in Japan recorded a decline to 104.80 in February, compared to a reading of 105.50 recorded in the prior month. Meanwhile, the nation’s coincident index rises to 110.70 in February, up from prior month’s level of 110.50.

Earlier today, data revealed that Japan’s exports advanced 8.5% YoY in March, in line with market expectations and compared to a 2.4% rise recorded in the previous month, thus notching its first trade surplus in almost three years and also indicating that the country’s economic growth may be back on track after a sluggish start to the year.

In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 119.38, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 119.07. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 119.92, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 120.16.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: USD/CAD dropped in early trade

COZforex: The US dollar was lower against its Canadian counterpart on Monday, as Friday's disappointing US economic data dampened optimism over the strength of the country's recovery, weighing broadly on the greenback.

USD/CAD hit 1.2150 amid early US trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2131, sliding 0.38%. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.2111, and a fall through could take it to the next support line of 1.2060. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.2201, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.2240.

In a speech, the BoC Governor, Stephen Poloz mentioned that the damage from sliding oil prices on the Canadian economy will disappear from the second quarter onwards.

The dollar remained under pressure after the Commerce Department reported Friday that orders for durable goods, excluding aircraft, dropped 0.5% in March, after a downwardly revised 2.2% drop in February.

The headline figure rise 4.0%, beating expectations for a 0.6% gain, but investors focused on underlying weakness in the report.

The data came after recent weak reports on home sales, retail sales and industrial production, adding to signs of a slowdown in economic growth since the start of the year.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Pound rises to nearly 2-month highs

COZforex: The pound rise to nearly 2 month highs against the US dollar on Wednesday, as demand for the greenback weakened ahead of US data and the Federal Reserve's monthly policy statement due later in the day.

GBP/USD hit 1.5406 amid European morning trade, the pair's highest since March 2; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5387, gaining 0.32%. In technical analysis, GBP/USD was likely to find support at 1.5174, Tuesday's low and resistance at 1.5460, the high of February 27.

The greenback came under pressure after the US Conference Board said on Tuesday that its index of consumer confidence dropped to 95.2 this month from a reading of 101.4 in March.

In the UK, the Nationwide Building Society earlier reported that its house price index rise 1.0% this month, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% uptick, after a 0.1% gain in March.

Markets shrugged off data on Tuesday showing that the UK gross domestic product expanded 0.3% in the 3 months to March, slowing from 0.6% in the final quarter of 2014. It was the slowest rate of growth since the fourth quarter of 2012.

Investors were also eyeing the outcome of the upcoming UK general elections on May 7, which could result in a hung parliament and an unstable coalition government, which could act as a drag on growth.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Aussie holds weaker after mixed jobs data that revises up March

COZforex: The Australian dollar held weaker on Thursday after jobs data came in weaker than expected, but revised upward the previous month's figures painting a mixed picture on hiring trends.

AUD/USD traded at 0.7958, down 0.13%, while USD/JPY changed hands at 119.45, flat, as markets in Japan re-open today after the three-day Golden Week holidays.

Australia lost 2,900 jobs in April, well below the 5,000 gain expected, but March was revised up from 37,700 gained to 48,200. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1% on a steady participation rate of 64.8% as expected.

Earlier, the AIG Construction index fell 3.1 points in April to 47, back into contraction on a fall in new orders in the commercial- and apartment-building sectors and a continued decline in incoming engineering-construction work.

"The distinct fall in sector wide new orders is a clear warning that activity is unlikely to rebound anytime soon with only the house building sub-sector avoiding contraction," said AI Group head of policy Peter Burn.

"The Reserve Bank's further trimming of interest rates this week may stimulate activity somewhat but it is difficult to see why this additional reduction will be effective in lifting overall activity unless supported by a degree of budget stimulus next week."


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: NZD/USD weekly outlook

COZforex: The New Zealand dollar dropped to a 5 week low against its US counterpart on Friday, before turning higher after data showed that the US economy created slightly less jobs than expected last month.

NZD/USD hit 0.7442 on Friday, the pair's weakest level since April 1, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7495 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.6% for the day.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 223,000 new jobs in April, just below expectations for jobs growth of 224,000. March’s figure was revised down to just 85,000 from a previously reported gain of 126,000.

The unemployment rate fell from 5.5% to a near seven-year low of 5.4% last month, broadly in line with forecasts.

The mixed data fuelled speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold off raising interest rates in the immediate future. However, investors conceded that higher rates still remain on the horizon.

Recent economic reports have indicated that the U.S. economy has slowed since the start of the year, prompting many investors to push back expectations on the timing of an initial rate hike by the Fed to late-2015, instead of midyear.

Meanwhile, in New Zealand, official data released Wednesday showed that the number of employed people rose by 0.7% in the first quarter, disappointing expectations for a 0.8% gain.

The report also showed that New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to 5.8% in the three months to March from 5.7% in the previous quarter, compared to expectations for a decline to 5.5%.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Wednesday's U.S. retail sales report for April, for fresh indications on the strength of the economy and the timing of a U.S. rate increase.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Euro trading higher ahead of Germany’s Q1 GDP data

COZforex: For the past trading session, the EUR rise 0.61% against the USD and closed at 1.1217.

Yesterday, the EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council stated that economic outlook of Europe was improving; however none of the member states of the EU could afford to slows down on implementation of reforms. Further, the council added that EU must first address its structural weaknesses in order to enhance the growth potential of Europe.

In the US, data showed that budget surplus recorded a level of $156.71 billion in April, from a budget deficit of $52.91 billion in the previous month. Markets were anticipating the nation’s surplus to come in at $151.50 billion. Meanwhile, JOLTs job openings dropped to a level of 4994.00 K in March while markets expected it ease to 5140.00 K, after registering a revised reading of 5144.00 K in the prior month.

In the speeches, the San Francisco Fed President, John Williams opined that the Fed should raise its benchmark interest rates before inflation reaches the Fed’s target of 2.0%, based on the economy’s solid footing.

In technical analysis, COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.1164 and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 1.1088. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.1298, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.1356.

Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the preliminary estimate of Germany’s seasonally adjusted Q1 GDP, along with the nation’s CPI data scheduled in a few hours. Additionally, the US retail sales data, scheduled later today would generate lot of market attention.


(COZ forex UK)

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COZfx: Yen holds weaker despite strong March core machinery orders

COZforex: The Japanese yen held weaker in Asia on Monday despite stronger than expected core machinery orders.

USD/JPY traded at 119.34, up 0.09%, while AUD/USD changed hands at 0.8049, up 0.14%, after comments from a central bank deputy governor on the rate view. EUR/USD was quoted at 1.1445, down 0.03%.

Japan said core machinery orders gained 2.6% in March, compared to an expected rise of 1.8% month-on-month and a 0.4% decline in February.

Later, China may release data on house prices for April year-on-year, with a drop of 6.1% seen in March.
The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of 6 major currencies, was quoted at 93.30, up 0.01%.

Data showed that US industrial production dropped for the fifth straight month in April and another report showed that US consumer sentiment deteriorated to a seven month low this month.

The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of the consumer sentiment index for May came in at 88.6, down from a final April reading of 95.9 and worse than forecasts for a reading of 96.0.

The reports came after disappointing data on retail sales and producer inflation earlier in the week and dampened hopes for a second quarter rebound after a sharp slowdown in growth in the first three months of the year.

In the week ahead investors will be turning their attention to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes for clues on the possible timing of a rate increase. Friday’s data on US inflation will also be closely watched.


(COZ forex UK)