Issue №53 from 20/06/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The IMF is not going to make any concessions to Greece. Even with EU the fund has points of disagreement, it agreed to continue to lend to Greece only in the case of the European investors debt restructuring.

The LTRO program the ECB put 73.8 billion euros against the spring 97.8 billion. Still investors are more inclined to the bond yields sales by the ECB. The US jobless claims number amounted to 267K vs. 279K the previous week, the consumer prices index rose up 0.4% in May, the core index rose up by 0.1%. The the 1st quarter payments balance was better than expected: -113 000 000 000 to $ -116 000 000 000.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD may show a positive trend soon. The euro can grow to the resistance level of 1.1410. After breaking 1.1410 the buyers may go to 1.1500.

Pound

The US positive macroeconomic statistics is not able to overcome the majors' inertial increase against the dollar. The euro showed increase by 23 points, the pound by 48 points. The pound growth contributed to the May retail sales good data: 0.2% against the expected 0.0%.

Obviously, in anticipation of the weekend and because of the strong resistance levels presence the British pound suspended its growth against the dollar and the Friday session it was trading in the side range with a tendency for decrease within the correction.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend in the short term. The pound needs to break above 1.5910 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.6000 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen

Over the past four days the Japanese yen has been contrary to the American stock market amid the previous weak economic data and in anticipation of the Bank of Japan meeting. We should note that the Japan stock market has been declining for four days. Only on Friday the Nikkei225 rose up by 0.67%, it was unable to withstand the preceding Dow Jones growth by 1.0%. The activity index in all economic sectors (All Industries Activity) for April showed increase by only 0.1% against the growth forecast by 0.3%. On Friday there was held a press conference by the Central Bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The Bank of Japan left the monetary policy unchanged.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair of USD / JPY will show a negative trend. We recommend going short with the first target – 122.50. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 121.00.

Gold

Yesterday the gold consolidated after its growth that was prompted by speculations about the Greece debt situation. The EU Luxembourg finance ministers meeting brought no agreement with Greece. At the same time the ECB informed the Euro group that it was not sure that Greek banks would be opened on Monday, the EU spokesman Disselblum said that it was impossible to reach an agreement with Greece until the end of the month.

Trading recommendations

The gold is trading around 1200.00. We advise to consider long positions with the first target – 1220.00. After fixing above the first target, the level 1230.00 will become the next one.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №55 from 04/07/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The European currency has remained in the range after the number of important fundamental publications that failed to provide the necessary support to the US dollar. The market did not undergo the serious changes before the weekend where there will be a referendum in Greece. The 1st quarter of 2015 wage growth was very high that supported the German economy. According to the German Federal Statistical Office Destatis, wages in Q1 grew by 2.5% compared to the 1st quarter of 2014.

The market's attention is entirely directed to Greece. Opinion polls in Greece show that the number of speakers "for" and "against" creditors' proposal is equal. The creditors remain adamant as well.

Trading recommendations

In the short term, the pair EUR/USD may show a negative trend. After reaching the level of 1.1050 it may fall to the level of 1.0950.

Pound

The June business activity index in the UK construction sector rose more than expected - up to 58.1 from 55.9, when it was expected to grow to 56.6, showing the rapid growth in the housing sector, as well as in the civil and commercial projects. Data from the US labor market came with a negative tone and the dollar reacted with a decrease, but not for long and gently. The June non-farm payrolls were 223 thousands. But with the unemployment at 5.3% which decreased from 5.5% at once, even this increase is a very good indicator.

Trading recommendations

In the short term, the GBP/USD may show a positive trend. After reaching the level of 1.5690 it may go to the level of 1.5800.

Yen

The Japanese yen was traded in a narrow range. Despite the decline in stock index Nikkei225 by 0.44% and Dow Jones losses by 0.16%, the yen was in a symbolic plus. Obviously, investors are waiting for the vote in Greece outcome.

The main positive factor for the yen to grow is Greek.

Trading recommendations

The USD/JPY may show a positive scenario. Shall the pair reach the level of 123.00 it may open the way to the level of 123.80, and further to 124.40.

Gold

The gold price rose, but remained close to the three and a half months of 1156.85 dollars per ounce minimum after the US employment report turned out to be below the forecasts. The gold rose after the US data release, but 0.7% below the opening level of the week beginning. The USA labor market did not support the US dollar. According to the US Labor Department, the latest initial jobless claims number rose by 10,000 and amounted 281 000. Economists had forecasted that the number would be
270,000.

Trading recommendations

The gold may show a negative trend. If the price reached the level of 1150 the way to the level of 1142 may be opened.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №57 from 18/07/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The last trading day was marked by the pair EUR/USD decrease. The Greek parliament hard reforms package approval which should serve as the key to getting bailout funds, could not support the euro and now the pair euro/dollar fell below the mark of 1.0900.

Things were fueled by the ECB President Mario Draghi comments who said that the quantitative easing program would remain in force as long as inflation returns to the target level. It means that until September of next year the euro will have, at least, one downside driver.

Trading recommendations

The pair EUR/USD may show a negative trend in the short term. When the pair reaches the level of 1.0800 and in case of this level breakthrough the way to the level of 1.0640 will be opened.

Pound

The pair pound/dollar is still within the side channel, remaining slightly above the psychological level of 1.5600. Now this level has turned into support and attempts to break through this level without significant drivers are unlikely successful.

There were published the June inflation indicators in the United States which come under close market attention. The inflation slightly increased. The price pressure shows the growth signs; it is a powerful bullish signal for the US dollar as it will increase the likelihood Fed interest rate hike in the foreseeable future.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair GBP/USD may show a positive trend. When the pair reaches the level of 1.5700 and in case of this level breakthrough the way to the level of 1.5910 will be opened.

Yen

The pair dollar/yen is still around the mark of 124.00. Prices were finally able to breakthrough it, but this movement is stopped. Now it looks like the yen is almost the only currency against which the dollar could move up steadily.

The downside driver for the Japanese yen still are the Bank of Japan recent statements- the regulator has lowered the consumer price inflation forecast for the year to 0.7% from 0.8%, noting the possibility of additional economic stimulus through the financial market.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the pair USD/JPY may show a positive trend. When the pair reaches the level of 125.00 and in case of this level breakthrough the way to the level of 125.80 will be opened.

Gold

The gold remains under pressure amid the renewed dollar and global stock markets growth following an agreement with the Greece creditors which ended with the reduced demand for safe assets. The Fed monetary policy tightening can further reduce investors' interest in precious metals.

Having continued to decline the price tested the support around 1142.00 dollars per ounce. Now the level which continued to hold back the bears' movement is broken through.

Trading recommendations

In the short term the gold may show a negative trend. When the pair reaches the level of 1120.00 and in case of this level breakthrough the way to the level of 1080.00 will be opened.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №59 from 01/08/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.

The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

Euro

The Ministry of Commerce reported that the second quarter US GDP slightly accelerated its growth after the weak start in 2015, still it is lower than in the 1st half of 2014. The GDP increased by 2.3% in the second quarter, having corrected for seasonal variations. Economists had forecasted the GDP growth by 2.7% y / y. The Commerce Department also reported that the GDP grew by 0.6% y / y. Earlier it was reported about the GDP reduction by 0.2%. The economy has not made a sustained breakthrough since 2009 when the recession ended.

The initial jobless claims number rose up by 12,000, taking into account seasonal variations that amounted 267 000. The US Labor Department said that economists expected growth to 270 000 jobless claims.

Trading recommendations

The rate dynamics is showing a negative development in the short term within the pair euro/dollar. Reaching the level of 1.0900 and its breakthrough will allow bears to decline towards 1.0800.

Pound

The pound has not changed significantly in the absence of the UK economic data. The sentiments, formed amid the Fed's commitment to the exchange rate policy tightening and then the US encouraging economic data, were considered as a proof that the USA rate hike conditions are improving that supported the US dollar. This signal became the first US GDP assessment for the second quarter. The main economic indicator for the second quarter grew by 2.3% which was worse than it was forecasted +2.6% q / q. However, it did not disappoint investors.

Trading recommendations

The pair GBP/USD may show a negative development in the short term. If the pair reaches the level of 1.5700 and breaks it through, it may reach the mark of 1.5900 soon.

Yen

The yen strengthened after the Japan inflation data output. According to the Japan Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry data, the core consumer price index excluding the fresh food prices was 0.1% in June while the energy prices decline over the past year continues to keep inflation away from the target level of 2% that the Japan Central Bank had set. It is worth noting that these data were higher than it was forecasted. (0.0%).

Trading recommendations

The dollar / yen may show the positive dynamics development in the short term. If the pair reaches the level of 124.00 and breaks it through, the way to 125.70 will be opened.

Gold

The US personal consumption expenditures rose up by 2.9% against 1.8% in the previous period while the personal savings rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2%, reflecting the households‘ propensity to spending. In addition, the employment data were positively assessed – initial jobless claims rose weaker than it was forecasted that amounted to 267 thousand when it was expected 270 thousand.

The gold remains under pressure amid the stock markets renewed growth and under the corresponding demand decline for safe assets.

Trading recommendations

In the short term we expect the precious metal negative dynamics development. If it reaches the mark of 1070.00 and breaks it through, the way towards 1050.00 will be opened.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №61 from 14/08/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD opened trades at 1.5482 on Monday after significant losses of the end of the previous week when 9 out of 10 MPC members voted to keep the interest rate unchanged, which was followed by solid Non-Farm Payrolls data from the US. The downfall of sterling in July was mostly driven by technical correction as Great Britain continues to keep a strong and steady growth pace comparing to other developed economies. Since the beginning of this week, cable was erasing losses climbing up to the current price level close to 1.5637. On Monday, GBP was supported by the UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor data coming out in green colour. This was followed by the Average earnings data on Wednesday, which was slightly lower than expected. The unemployment rate was in line with the forecast of 5.6%, while RICS House Price Balance was two per cent higher than predicted, at 44%. Next week, investors are viewing British CPI and Retail Sales data.

GBP/USD (H4; August 14, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Since the end of June, GBP/USD was trading in the corridor between 1.5690 and 1.5466 creating a “flag” formation, which is a currently continuing consolidation after the rise that took place in spring. The market sentiment is mostly bullish for this instrument, so breaking through the resistance level at 1.5690 can give an early strong indication of bulls gaining momentum.

NZD/USD was heading down this week after market opening at 0.6612 on Monday. Despite the broad recovery of Kiwi on Wednesday amid weaker dollar, the pair’s downfall was mostly driven by devaluation of yuan. Meanwhile, data from New Zealand showed that electronic card retail sales did not reach the expectations of 0.5% coming out at 0.4% this month. The Food price index was also in red colour. At the end of the week, Retail Sales data showed disappointing numbers coming out at 0.1% below the 0.5% expected. Next week the market is waiting for external migration details from New Zealand.

NZD/USD (D1; August 14, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Technically, NZD/USD is trading close to lows of May 2010 – 0.6560, which currently serves as the key support level being tested.The RSI indicator also suggests that the pair is well oversold, but lack of upbeat fundamental data from New Zealand and strengthening dollar might push the pair even lower, in which case there will be much more space for falling than there is now, bearing in mind the Fed rate hike talks and current situation in China. The best tactic would be to catch intraday fluctuations for smaller profit while watching the key support levels for indications of further weakening.

EUR/USD broke through the 1.10 level this week rising from July lows of 1.0808. The single currency was mostly supported by mid-week plunge of the dollar and Athens reaching the agreement on the multiyear bailout plan with the creditors. Euro zone ZEW Economic Sentiment was out at 47.6 beating the expectations of 43.9, while Industrial Production contracted by 0.4%. The euro zone CPI matched the forecast of 0.2% while European GDP data showed 1.2% annual growth pace, 0.1% lower than expected. European Current Account and Consumer Confidence numbers are published next week, so the market is waiting to see the numbers.

EUR/USD (H4; August 14, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
As of writing the pair is trading at 1.1144 and a break below 1.1000 (psychological level) would target 1.0961 (low Aug.11) en route to 1.0855. On the upside, the initial up-barrier is located at 1.1190 (high Aug.13) ahead of 1.1215 (high Aug.12) and finally 1.1244 (high Jun.30).

USD/CAD was broadly down this week falling below the previous key support level located at 1.3063, which subsequently became the resistance level. Technically, the rise of two previous weeks might be taken as a bullish trap if prices start falling more actively. Canadian Housing Starts were lower than expected in July, while New House Price Index rose 0.3% in June, beating the forecast of 0.1%.On Friday, Manufacturing Sales in Canada missed the expectations coming out at 1.2% and pulling USD/CAD back above 1.3063. Next week will bring volatility with important data from Canada and the US coming out simultaneously including US Building Permits, Core CPI, Existing Home Sales and Canadian Wholesale Sales, Core CPI and Core Retail Sales.

USD/CAD (D1; August 14, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The fundamental data needs to be closely watched as the pair is trading near to a key resistance level of 1.3063 with a strong breakthrough potential. Overall forecast is bullish ahead of the possible rate hike in September, although recent mixed data from Canada does not give indications of weakening economy in this quarter. Passing the 1.3212level is a strong bullish sign, while falling below 1.2920 might be taken as a signal for opening a medium-term short position.

USD/JPY was rising this week after opening trades at 123.78 on Monday. The Bank of Japan saw some members question the sustained impact of aggressive easing on the pace of yen weakening and inflation expectations in the Wednesday release of the July minutes. The BoJ held policy steady at its latest meeting. Japanese current account reading was in red colour this week coming out at 0.559T, while Bank Lending rose 2.6%. Household confidence was also lower than expected. On the other hand, Industrial production and Tertiary Industry Activity Index have beaten the expectations of experts. Next week, Japanese GDP is due together with Trade Balance data.

USD/JPY (W1; August 14,2015)

Trade guidelines:
The expectations for next week are mostly bullish. In terms of technical levels, resistances can be found at 125.27 (highs of August 12)  and 125.66 (highs of June 8). Having passed those levels, the pair might test the 125.85 level.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №63 from 29/08/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD opened trades at 1.5680 this week and immediately started rising as concerns over Chinese recession weakened the greenback and caused super-volatile day for the financial markets. The pair reached as high as 1.5802 before the first correctional move was seen.  For the rest of the week, the cable was erasing gains and has passed even the formerly strong support level at 1.5425. In terms of fundamental data, the BBA Mortgage approvals were out in line with expectations at 46.0K, CBI Distributive Survey data was out in green colour at 24 versus 18 expected, Nationwide HPI showed positive reading of 3.2% growth in August and GDP numbers were in line with expectations at 2.6% YoY. Next week, data is expected from UK including Manufacturing and Construction PMI, as well as services PMI. The United Kingdom is one of the few economies that may be actually looking at a rate hike in the not-too-distant future, which is another point to consider in making forecasts of the currency’s valuation.

GBP/USD (D1; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Last week, the pair was trading close to 1.5690 resistance level eventually passing through above 1.57, indicating that bullish trend was about to start forming in the nearest future. However, the volatility of this week led the cable even below the previous consolidation in between 1.5690 and 1.5425. The expectations are bullish with target set at 1.56 for the next week, but beware of higher volatility.

EUR/USD opened trades at 1.1376on Monday and was unexpectedly driven higher to 1.1713asinvestors concerned about the collapse of the Chinese Stock Exchange chose the single currency as safe heaven, if even for a short period of time.The economic data showed German GDP was out in line with expectations. American data was mostly positive with CB Consumer Confidence at 101.5 versus 93.4 expected, New Home Sales missing the expectations by only 3K, Core Durable Goods Orders growing at a steady pace of 0.6%, Crude Oil inventories coming out in green colour and GDP showing steady growth. Next week, Euro zone publishes its CPI, PMI and unemployment rate data as well as retail sales numbers. The interest rate decision is likely to give the market a higher degree of volatility. On the US side, investors will be looking at ISM Manufacturing PMI and Non-Farm Payrolls.

EUR/USD (D1; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The pair is currently trading at 1.1296 after reaching its eight month highs on Monday at 1.1713. The forthcoming week promises to be no less volatile, but expectations remain slightly bullish, if not neutral. The pair might find support at 1.1116 and resistance at 1.1360.

NZD/USD was giving technical signs of consolidation constantly meeting with support at 0.65 until the beginning of this week, when the pair was harshly affected by the drop of Shanghai Composite Index. China is a crucial trade partner of NZ, so the Kiwi suffered severe losses together with other commodity currencies. This week’s data showed the Inflation Expectations were out in line with the forecast and Trade Balance deficit contracted more than expected. Next week will provide details on NZ Terms of Trade Index reading and Building Consents data.

NZD/USD (H4; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD broke through the key support level at 0.65, which opened up even more space for further decline. According to the most pessimistic opinion, the new target for this pair might be located as low as 0.62. However, as the time is coming close to September, there are many doubtful comments on the Fed rate hike decision, which eventually might be postponed to December. This will obviously support the NZD. The expectations are bearish for the next week, however, the pair might find resistance at 0.65 before falling lower. The target for next week is 0.6320.

USD/CAD reacted to the Monday news by immediately reaching its previous target at 1.32. Without much data from Canada, the pair mostly followed the moves of Shanghai Composite Index (in the morning) and the swings of the greenback (in the evening). However, the pair didn’t erase its gains as much as other currency pairs did, currently trading close to 1.32 level. Next week, investors are viewing Canada’s GDP, Trade Balance and Labor market data, which is likely to give us some very interesting moves on Friday after US Non-Farm Payrolls data publishing.

USD/CAD (D1; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Technically, the loonie has reached its previous target at 1.32 opening up new space for further rise. The 1.3390 level is now in the major point of attention. On the downside, 1.29 level will provide strong support in case we see unexpectedly disappointing data from US. The moving averages are pointing upwards, but the corridor has not been formed yet, so bearish correction  is possible.

USD/JPY was sent as low as 116.19 when investors turned their attention to Japanese bonds amid the situation in China. However, strong yen is not good for the Japanese economy as it diminishes the competitiveness of its global exports. On Wednesday, Bank of Japan governor said that the country will contribute to raising the growth potential of the economy through Quantitative Easing, which weakened yen in a matter of minutes sending USD/JPY back to 121.10 level with subsequent consolidation at 120.85. On Friday, the Japanese data was mixed:National CPI reading was flat versus negative figure expectations, while household spending rose modestly 0.6%. Retail sales data was positive with 1.6% growth figure. Next week, economists are waiting for Japanese Industrial production, Capital Spending and overtime pay data.

USD/JPY (D1; 29 August 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Ignoring the spike that occurred earlier in the week, the quick recovery of USD/JPY points out to the fact that the currency is likely to remain trading above 120.00, as Bank of Japan remains committed to keeping the currency weak. The expectations are neutral, however, we might see a little bit of the upside at 121.53.In our opinion, intraday tactics will prove to be the most winning

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №65 from 12/09/2015 

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD As forecasted by our analysts, the pound was in the recovery mode this week after opening trades at 1.5176 level. On Monday, the cable gained as many as 96 points, which was followed by a rise of 120 points on Tuesday. Although, GBP/USD suffered losses on  Wednesday, when disappointing data indicated contraction of British Industrial Production by 0.4%. Meanwhile, manufacturing production was down as much as 0.8% and Trade Balance deficit widened more than expected. On Thursday, the outcome of BoE MPC meeting showed the ratio of votes on interest rate has not changed since the last month: 8 to 1. Next week, data is expected from the United Kingdom, including CPI, Average Earnings, Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales.

GBP/USD (D1; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Looking from the technical perspective, the pound has returned to the previous consolidation corridor in between 1.5425 and 1.5690. It is expected that fundamental data will act as the main catalyst for the breakthrough above 1.55 to continue the bullish trend. The main focus remains on the US side, where interest rate decision is long awaited.

EUR/USD was higher this week after opening trades at 1.1146 on Monday. Tuesday GDP figures came out in green colour exceeding the expectations of experts by 0.1% QoQ and by 0.3% YoY. Germany continued to show stable economy data with Trade Balance proficit at 22.8B. The Eurogroup meeting is taking place today, while next week will provide additional information on the euro zone economy: Labor Market Data, Trade Balance, CPI and Current account reading. On the US side, the market is looking at retails sales, Core CPI, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Fed Interest Rate decision.

EUR/USD (D1; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The forecasts for EUR/USD are mostly bearish in view of the possibility of a rate hike in the US. Currently, the pair is seeing support in 1.0820 area and resistance at 1.1350, but experts are expecting the parity with the US dollar as soon as 2016. The comments from ECB officials indicated that euro zone easing program will be further implemented in view of concerns over lower than desired inflation growth rate, which will also affect the single currency in the negative way.

NZD/USD was slightly lower on Monday after the market opened trades close to 0.6285 area. However, the interest in riskier assets was heated up on Wednesday amid rumors of China introducing additional easing measures to support its economy, which sent the pair higher to 0.6421. The recovery did not last long, as RBNZ cut its interest rate on Thursday to 2.75% from the previous 3%. The market reacted by revaluing NZD/USD at 0.6254 level despite the positive data on electronic card retail sales. Next week, economic data from New Zealand consists of the current account and GDP.

NZD/USD (H4; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
While it is expected that NZ GDP will not exceed the growth rate of the previous year, main point of attention is seen as the situation in the Chinese markets. The economic data from China will be published next week including Industrial production, retail sales and house prices. The expectations are mostly negative, especially in case of strengthening of the US dollar. The pair’s new target is set at 0.6160, which might be reached as soon as next week. On the upside, we might see the pair testing 0.64 level, which will be followed by a sharp decline shortly after.

USD/CAD continued forming its consolidation close to the upper resistance level of the bullish trend, which started forming back in the beginning of April. Current consolidation is a clear indication of the fact that loonie will continue weakening against its US counterpart. This week, Canada showed some robust economic data with Housing starts exceeding expectations of experts by almost 27 thousand, while Building permits number contracted by just 0.6% versus 5 percent expected. However, Capacity Utilization Rate and New housing price index were lower in red colour. Next week, investors are viewing the manufacturing sales and Foreign securities purchases, as well as Core CPI data.

USD/CAD (D1; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
1.3106 has proved to be a reliable support level, however, the pair has already risen way more to its current 1.3254 level, where the consolidation is taking place. It is highly unlikely that any prolonged strengthening will be observed in loonie, as it is well possible for the Fed to raise interest rates next week. The fundamental data from Canada was mixed last month, so it is also possible for the pair to continue its consolidation. It would be reasonable to place buy stop orders just above 1.33 while benefiting from intraday moves in this pair until we see further developments.

AUD/USD was rising from its six-year lows this week currently trading at 0.7071. The market opened at 0.6917 on Monday, but demand for riskier assets, which was heated by the comments from Chinese officials, sent the pair higher. In terms of fundamental data, Australia did quite good this week with NAB Business confidence coming out at 1 versus 0 expected, while Labor market data also being impressive. On the other hand, Australian Home loans and Westpac consumer Sentiment were lower than expected. Next week, the market expects data on new motor vehicles sales.

AUD/USD (D1; September 12 2015)

Trade guidelines:
Looking from technical perspective, the moving averages are still pointing down without intersections and even with the recent rise, the expectations remain bearish as there are plenty of fundamental reasons for the pair to continue falling, including Chinese economy slowing down, low oil prices and interest rate hike in the US.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №67 from 26/09/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD opened trades at 1.5522 on Monday and by now has reached its 1.5223 level, down 30 points. There was bad news for the cable earlier this week when the latest UK government borrowing numbers were reported at an above-expected level. The August statistics revealed Public Sector Net Borrowing of 12.1B last month – over 10% up from the August 2014 figure. The Office of National Statistics, which published the number, explained that increase in borrowing was driven by decreased income tax revenues. Meanwhile, BBA Mortgage approvals were higher at 46.7K. Next week, the expected data from UK includes M4 Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, GDP numbers, Manufacturing and Construction PMIs.

GBP/USD (D1; September 26 2015)

Trade guidelines:
On the bullish side for those looking for good reversal points, support at 1.5200, 1.5184 and 1.5089 could provide a bottom, which the pair will bounce from to reach its target at 1.5287, 1.5308, and then 1.5410. On the short side, risk management will be more difficult as the volatile moves of the past four trading days have left little resistance for stop placement. The general outlook is bearish in mid-term in view of the strengthening seen in dollar and a possible rate hike delay by BoE.

EUR/USD opened trades at 1.1286 on Monday and was moving down in the first half of the week amid lower Consumer Confidence report and weak PMI data from Europe. However, hawkish comments from ECB president M. Draghi subsequently pushed the single currency higher. Draghi informed the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee of the European Parliament that slowing growth in emerging markets and the high value of the euro and falling commodities all prices are already factors frustrated expectations to enhance its purchase asset program, but that there is a need to determine whether these factors have a lasting impact. On the US side, there were also hawkish comments from J. Yellen, which helped the greenback to appreciate, pushing the euro down to where it is now – 1.1126.

EUR/USD (D1; September 26 2015)

Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD consolidated in a range between 1.1298 and 1.1104. The intraday technical picture for the pair is bullish, as we see the price moving close to the anticipated support level close to 1.11. However, our forecast for the week ahead is mostly bearish, especially if the US GDP, reported later today is in green colour. We are expecting that euro zone inflation data of next week will be lower than expected as falling commodity prices and general economy outlook seem grimmer. This can eventually push the price lower to the 1.0980 area.

NZD/USD struggled last week after GDP report showed the New Zealand economy grew slower than expected. However, the pair was able to recover after the Fed passed on an interest rate hike. Although, this week started with heavy losses as investors were going long on the US dollar after the greenback’s initial fall. This was followed by wider than expected N.Z. Trade Balance deficit data, which pushed the pair even lower. On Thursday, Fed chair J. Yellen provided strong indications that most of her colleagues will support the interest rate hike decision, which caused the USD price to rally. Next week, data is expected from New Zealand including Building Consents, ANZ Business Confidence and Private Sector Credit.

NZD/USD (D1; 26 сентября 2015)

Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD tried to fall during the course of the day on Thursday, but turned back around to form a relatively positive candle. There is a massive amount of resistance above 0.6393, so at this point there is no interest in buying this asset. Contrary, we believe that any candle above this level will simply be a nice selling opportunity to take advantage of.  Currently, 0.65 level is seen as an absolute “ceiling” of this instrument.

USD/CAD opened trades at 1.3227 this week and was mostly moving up as there was higher demand for the greenback, while Canadian data was mostly negative. The Wholesale sales were out flat versus 0.8% growth expectations, as well as Core Retails Sales numbers that came in at zero, below 0.4% expected. Next week, data is expected from Canada, including IPPI, RMPI, GDP figures and RBC Manufacturing PMI.

USD/CAD (D1; 26 сентября 2015)

Trade guidelines:
USD/CAD initially broke higher this Thursday, even getting above the 1.34 level. However, there was enough resistance in that area to turn the pair back and as a result a shooting star formation occurred. The shooting star, of course, is a negative candle, so further losses can be expected as a result. A pullback at this point in time should be a buying opportunity, as the pair’s potential of reaching 1.35 level remain very promising. The moving averages are still pointing up, but the graph moved a little bit away from the upper border of the bullish trendline.

AUD/USD suffered significant losses this week with Caixin Manufacturing PMI falling to its 47-week lows with 47.0 reading. The pair was subsequently pushed down by hawkish comments from the Fed with expectations of a rate hike still driving USD price higher. Next week, data is expected from Australia - Building Approvals, Housing Credit, Private House Approvals and Retail Sales. From Chine, market expects Manufacturing PMI data. On the US side, investors are viewing Pending Home Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing PMI and, of course, Nonfarm Payrolls.

AUD/USD (D1; 26 сентября 2015)

Trade guidelines:
AUD/USD initially fell during Thursday trade, breaking below the 0.70 level. However, there was enough support just below to turn the move back around, creating a hammer formation. Because of this, and the fact that the gold markets shot much higher should mean that this pair goes higher in the short-term, perhaps reaching towards the 0.7150 handle. On the other hand, a break down below the bottom of the hammer would be very bearish. Any considerable price rallies present great opportunity for selling this asset.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №69 from 09/10/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD is slightly up against a weaker US dollar. The pound rose 15 points to trade at above 1.53. The British Pound may continue higher after showing the largest two-day advance in three weeks as the Bank of England leaves the interest rate unchanged. Markets were most concerned with the ratio of votes of the MPC committee, which eventually was displayed as 8 to 1. The recent news-flow from UK has increasingly improved relative to the previous forecasts since September sit-down. The inflation expectations and 2015-16 GDP growth bets have also improved over the same period. This means a dovish turn in policymakers’ mood is highly unlikely. GBP began its rise on Wednesday after the release of some positive data. The cable surged as industrial production rose three times more than expected in the month of August, which was a breath of fresh air after back-to-back data disappointments. Next week, investors are viewing the British CPI, Average earnings and unemployment rate data.

GBP/USD (D1; October 9, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
GBP/USD went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday, forming a relatively neutral candle, but there was quite a bit of volatility during the day, which of course means that it will be very difficult to plan for a long-term trade at the moment. It would be sensible to use selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion of any rise, and as a result that is exactly what the market is waiting for. There is a strong resistance located at the 1.55 level, so having said that, there is absolutely no interest in mid-term buying.

EUR/USD is trading at 1.1337 having passed the top of its recent trading range. Having received the ECB policy minutes data, traders remained concerned over German trade balance which continued the line of German lackluster data this month. The US dollar continued to weaken as traders become more certain that there will be no interest rate increase in 2015. While the central bank has signaled a willingness to expand stimulus as needed, a swift rebound in inflation expectations since late August has probably defused the need for near term action. Next week, data is expected from euro zone including German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Industrial Production and CPI.

EUR/USD (D1; October 9, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD edged higher on Thursday as the FOMC minutes didn't provide any clear insight into rate hike timing. For most of hawkish indication, there was an offsetting "however." The minutes showed "many members" thought rate hike conditions had been met or would be met soon. However, "several members" were worried that the downside risks to growth and inflation had increased. The currency pair passed the resistance near 1.13. Support on the exchange rate is seen near the 200-day moving average at 1.1150. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a buy signal.

USD/CAD is trading at 1.2936 down by 18 points as the US dollar weakened and global commodities rebound. The Canadian dollar rose for the eighth day, its longest stretch of gains since June 2014, as advancing crude-oil prices led some traders to cancel bets against the currency. The loonie is rebounding from last week’s 11-year low. This week, the Ivey PMI was in red colour at 53.7, slightly lower than expected, while building permits data was also negative at 3.7% contraction rate versus 0.8% growth expected. However, the number of housing starts was higher than the forecast, coming out at 230.7K. Next week’s data that is likely to affect the loonie includes Foreign Securities Purchases and Manufacturing Sales.

USD/CAD (D1; October 9, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
USD/CAD has been falling on the daily timeframe since the release of GDP report on September 30 after it broke out of the consolidation triangle following the Federal Open Market Committee decision on September 17. It is expected that the bearish momentum will continue. A pending order to sell can be placed below 1.2867  level, with the stop loss the current price at 1.2930. After placing the pending order, the stop loss is to be moved every day following the bearish moves.

NZD/USD rose 4 points against weaker US dollar as traders evaluated the continued decline in global commodities after the IMF downgraded growth. The kiwi is trading at 0.6706. The effects from another positive dairy auction and an improvement in global sentiment are supporting the New Zealand dollar. Dairy prices were up almost 10 per cent at the Global Dairy Trade auction on Tuesday, the fourth consecutive lift. The next potential market-moving event was the reopening of the Chinese share market, which took a week-long break for the country's national holiday. Broad stabilization in risk appetite, combined with a less gloomy outlook for the NZ dairy sector, appears to have extended recent upward momentum. Next week, N.Z. publishes its Food Price Index, RBNZ Offshore Holdings figures, Business NZ PMI and CPI.

NZD/USD (D1; October 9, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
NZD/USD pair broke higher during the course of the session on Thursday, testing the top of the shooting star from Wednesday. With that being the case, the market looks as if it is ready to make a serious charged towards the 0.6750 level. It’s not going to be easy, but if the pair breaks above the top that shooting star we expect that level to be reached. On the other hand, if a decline is seen below the bottom of the shooting star we think it is a selling opportunity to the 0.65 level.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.

Issue №71 from 23/10/2015

Hello, our forum dear visitors.
The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.

GBP/USD rose 44 points to 1.5460 after retail sales beat forecasts of analysts. UK retail sales grew for the 29th month in September. Sales in the month grew 6.5% from the same month of 2014, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) estimated. The British data also showed decrease in the Public Sector Net Borrowing from the previous reading of 10.79B to its current 8.64B versus expectations of 9.40B. Next week, UK publishes its GDP figures and mortgage approvals data.

GBP/USD (D1; October 23, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
GBP/USD recovery from 1.5106 might extend higher but outlook is unchanged. It is believed that risk stays on the downside with 1.5658 seen as a strong resistance. This means that fall from 1.5929 is likely to resume later. However, break of 1.5658 resistance will invalidate this view and target 1.5929 resistance instead. In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 1.7190 should have completed at 1.4565. Momentum of the rebound from 1.4565 was relatively weak and the structure is somewhat corrective. Hence, price action from 1.4565 needs to be treated as developing into a consolidation/correction pattern only. Fall from 1.7190 is viewed as resuming the longer term down trend from 2.1161 and would target 1.3503 and below later.

EUR/USD declined 25 points as traders expected Mr. Draghi to deliver a speech on QE program on Thursdayand went further down extending losses by 2.0% during the conference. The euro is currently trading at 1.1138. The single currencyfell lower on Thursday after European Central Bank policy discussion when President Mario Draghireiterated QE program expansion possibility. The euro zone current account figures were out in red colour this week at 17.7B versus 20.1B expected while the interest rate was left at its previous level of 0.05%. The manufacturing PMI and Markit Composite PMI were reported to be higher than expected. Next week, data is expected from euro zone including M3 Money Supply, Consumer Inflation Expectation, CPI and Unemployment Rate.

EUR/USD (D1; October 23, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
EUR/USD pair approached 1.1100 by the end of the US session, and consolidated near the mentioned low, with no signs of changing bias any time soon. Nevertheless, the pair has reached a major long term support area, and given that the pair lost over 200 pips pretty much straight, it may attempt an upward corrective movement before resuming its decline. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators have lost their bearish strength, but hold in extreme oversold levels. The next strong support comes at 1.1080, a long term ascendant trend line coming from 1.0591, April monthly low, which if broken, should lead to a test of the 1.1000 critical figure in the near term.

USD/CAD dipped 16 points after the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday and lackluster comments from the Bank Governor. The pair is holding at 1.3083. The drop in oil and gold prices on Wednesday seriously affected the commodity currency. The Canadian dollar fell the most in three months after the nation’s central bank left interest rates unchanged while cutting its economic growth forecasts, saying the fallout from lower prices for crude oil, one of Canada’s largest exports, will be felt for longer than projected. The BoC cut its 2016 growth forecast to 2 percent, from 2.3 percent, saying capital spending by oil and gas firms will probably fall 20 percent next year as prices remain weak. Canadian Core retail sales were flat after 0.1% growth in the previous month, while retail sales were higher than expected at 0.5% beating expectations of 0.1%. Next week, Canada is expected to publish its IPPI and RMPI figures as well as GDP numbers.

USD/CAD (D1; October 23, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
The loonie broke down against the US dollar by 1.1% after the Bank of Canada revised their GDP forecasts for 2016 & 2017 lower. Larger focus remains on the breakdown of a 4-month rising channel with a 60 pip decline. The pair is coming into key resistance that could set up the answer as to whether a decline is likely to continue or a test of September highs is possible in the near future. Because price broke below 1.2950, the confidence of the longer-term uptrend is quickly waning. Today, we’ll have the last major news event out of Canada in the CPI report.

NZD/USD soared 53 points to 0.6818 recovering from excessive losses over the past few days. The kiwi took advantage of the drop in the US dollar and a better mood for Asian traders. The kiwi fell to 0.6731 on Wednesday but recovered from the overreaction Thursday morning. The New Zealand dollar had declined as commodity-linked currencies fell out of favor on concerns about global growth after oil prices dropped. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, advanced as investors favoured less risky assets following a drop in oil prices after US crude inventories increased by the most in six months.

NZD/USD (D1; October 23, 2015)

Trade guidelines:
NZD is attempting to launch a recovery after finding support near the 0.67 against its US counterpart. A daily close above 0.6789on Thursday opened the door for a challenge of the 0.6854 level. Alternatively, a reversal below the October 21 low at 0.6698 would clear the way for a test of the 0.6613-44 area. Current positioning does not offer an attractive trading opportunity.

Thank you for using the European broker Forex.ee Analytics! Have a profitable trade!

Our other services, as well as Forex.ee trading conditions you can find at our official website.