Re: Analysis from a European broker Forex.ee
Issue №27 from 13/12/2014
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The European broker Forex.ee analytical department offers you the Analytics.
The European macro statistics has disappointed traders. The France consumer price index fell by 0.2% in November against the growth expectations by 0.2%, the Italy industrial production decreased by 0.1% in October against the growth expectations by 0.3%. The second LTRO round was neutral-negative: against the demand expectations for soft loans in the amount of 150 billion euro, the requests volume was in the amount of 129.8 billion euro. Formally, it is believed that the LTRO reduced demand will force ECB to start the corporate repayment and government bonds "somewhat sooner than later."
The importance of the 25th figure for euro/dollar is obvious as all attempts to overcome it are unsuccessful. This level continues to attract interest for sale, so the day before the pair fell to the support around 1.2370 that increases risks for a decrease to the 23rd figure. The pair euro/dollar needs to stay above ongoing support for the growth resumption and the next 25th figure breakthrough.
The pound continues to strengthen despite the fact that the US positive macroeconomic statistics supported the US dollar growth. In general, the dollar has all chances to continue its growth. In 2015, the expected interest rates increase in the US that will have a positive impact on the US dollar. The pair continues to trade with the positive mood and it requires the UK positive news for the continued growth.
The pair was able to rebound from the support around 1.5670 and rise up to 1.5740, breaking through the resistance around 1.5710. Now this level provides a support and its loss will lead to a decrease down to 1.5670. The pair needs to rise up and consolidate above 1.5830 to continue its growth.
The Japanese statistics published the industrial production revised data for October, the specifying value marked improvement - an increase by 0.4% m/m and a decline by 0.8% y/y when the previous calculations showed 0.2% m/m, -1.0% y/y. As for expectations for the near future, it is likely that the pair activity ahead of Sunday holidays will fall and there will be a range trading with a tendency to continue growth.
The pair dollar/yen rebounded to the level of 119.90. After the rebound bears made another attempt to break through downwards. They managed to push the pair below the previous low and test the support around 117.45. The pair decrease again attracted buying interest and in result it rose up to 119.50. Then the pair consolidated around the level of 118.60. We should use the dollar decline for opening long positions, not forgetting at the same time to insure the purchase by protective orders.
The strong data and expectations regarding the policy tightening support the US dollar which strengthened during the trades last week. It is a negative factor for gold as the metal denominated in dollars and is becoming more expensive for investors using other currencies when the dollar rises.
The gold prices are near the level of $1220 per ounce under the influence of the dollar rising value, but in general, the negative dynamics are still preserved. Investment demand has grown again than supported prices. The nearest support levels in gold are 1200-1220 the resistance levels are 1240-1255.
The gold perspectives look positive as long as it is trading above 1200.00. At the same time, its decrease and consolidation below the mark of 1200.00 will negate the positive expectations and will confirm a new reduction round to the minimum near 1130.00.
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