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Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD: another bottom is here. Overview for 28.09.2022

The major currency pair continues plummeting. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9560.

Yesterday, the “greenback” was once again in demand as a “safe haven” asset. At the same time, number released by the US were surprisingly confident.

For example, the Durable Goods Orders report showed -0.2% m/m in August against the expected reading of 0.1% m/m. The Core Durable Goods Orders expanded by 0.2% m/m.

The New Home Sales gained 28.8% in August, showing 686K against the expected reading of 500K, even amid rate hikes. Either people prefer to invest money in real estate, or the real estate market demand has reached stability.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence in the US improved in September and showed 108.0 points after being 103.6 points the month before and against the expected reading of 104.0 points. The likeliest reasons for this are the energy price fall in the country along with the stable labour market.

Earlier today, Germany reported on the GfK Consumer Climate in October and the news was pretty bad – the indicator dropped to -42.5 points after being -36.8 points in September. The reasons are also quite clear – inflation boost.

Later in the evening, investors will switch their attention to the speech to be delivered by the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Pound is having tough times. Overview for 29.09.2022

The Pound Sterling is keeping balance against the USD as much as possible. The current quote for the instrument is 1.0800.

The news released yesterday were rather puzzling. The Bank of England announced its decision to buy long-term bonds to calm markets starting 28 September, thus stopping the bond buying programme that started earlier. The programme volume is not limited – the regulator said the purchases might be any number necessary to achieve the target.

The target is to get back to normal market conditions.

The surge in profitability of the British national debt was caused by the programme to cut taxes in the country, which might add over 70 billion to the UK budget this year alone.

What does it mean? First of all, the BoE acknowledged a defeat in its fight against inflation. It happens. But now the UK is facing hyperinflation. In other words, they use gasoline to fight fire.

A as result, the new Prime Minister Liz Truss has met all concerned expectations so far – her policy is aggressive and rather questionable. She was already asked to fire Chancellor of the Exchequer, but she hasn’t made the decision yet.

In this light, the Pound found itself even in a more complicated position.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD recovered. Overview for 30.09.2022

The major currency pair moved away from the local bottom. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9800.

The “greenback” dropped yesterday due to the decline in the US bond yield. Another thing that put pressure on the American currency was the strengthening of the offshore exchange rate of Chinese yuan. It looks rather unusual, but that’s a new global tendency.

The statistics published yesterday confirmed that the Q2 US GDP lost 0.6% q/q. A pleasant surprise was the weekly report on the Unemployment Claims, which showed 193K against the expected reading of 215K.

Later today, the US is scheduled to release an important report, Core PCE Price Index. The US Fed pays special attention to it when estimating inflation. The indicator is expected to gain 0.5% m/m in August after expanding by 0.1% m/m in July. A high reading might confirm expectations of a rate hike up to 4% by the end of 2022. Other reports worth paying attention to are Personal Spending/Income.

In case there are no external stresses, the Euro might try to continue recovering.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD has reached stability. Overview for 03.10.2022

The major currency pair is looking rather neutral early in a new week, which is promising to be quite volatile. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9788.

In September, EURUSD lost 2.5%. Also, it has declined 16% since the beginning of 2022.

This week, the US will release new numbers on the labour market. The first September report, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, will be published on Wednesday and might show 200K after being 132K the month before. On Friday, investors will witness the Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls data. The NFP is expected to show 265K after being 315K in August.

Signals from the labour market will be extremely important – they will provide the understanding of how stable the American economy is after the tight monetary decisions introduced by the US Fed.

There is an opinion that the fourth quarter might be quite successful for the “greenback” due to rising demand for “safe haven” asset and additional rate hikes. Still, expectations are rather different. For example, Wells Fargo experts believe EURUSD might drop to 0.9100 by the end of 2022 due to global inflation boost and a decline in consumer and business confidence in Europe.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Aussie got under pressure. Overview for 04.10.2022

The Australian Dollar is retreating against the USD again. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6469.

The Reserve Bank of Australia had a meeting today and decided to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, from 2.35% to 2.60%. Market players were quite surprised: the RBA introduced a 50-point rate after each of its latest meetings. Average market expectations implied the same hike, that´s why such a soft move of the regulator received a negative vibe.

In the comments, the RBA said that the future moves and rate hikes would be defined based on inflation and the labour market in the country. An increase in the rate will help reach some kind of a balance between supply and demand. The regulator believes there were enough rate hikes in such a short period of time. In the future, the rate will continue rising.
already introduced rate hikes are quite enough.

Inflation expectations remain the same – 2-3%. Mid-term inflation forecasts are looking quite stable.
In the future, the RBA will continue paying much attention to the labour market dynamics and formation of prices.

Overall, everything sounded pretty confident, apart from the rate decision. Probably, the first negative vibe in the AUD will be priced in quickly and the asset may reach stability.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD: back to parity again. Overview for 05.10.2022

The major currency is ready to test parity on Wednesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9990.

The key trigger for the EUR right now is a huge rebound in global capital markets, which revived risk attitude. The USD, in its turn, is being failed by a decline in the US bond yield.

Investors are clearly longing for purchases.

Today’s trading session is expected to be quite interesting statistically-wise. The Euro Area and some of its members will release final reports on their Services PMIs in September. For the Euro Area, the indicator is still below the psychologically important level of 50 points and will probably remain there. As long as inflation is high, it’s rather difficult to expect anything else.

On Wednesday, the US is scheduled to start reporting on its labour market. The first repot to be published is the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is expected to show 200K in September after being 132K the month before. It would be good news.

We remind you that there is no direct correlation between the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the Non-Farm Payrolls, which will be released on Friday. However, the first report might help to gain an overview.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Australian Dollar moved “into the black”. Overview for 06.10.2022

The Australian Dollar reached stability against the USD on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.6534.

The Aussie had difficult times handling the RBA’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate below market expectations. The next thing that put pressure on the Australian currency was a local recovery of the “greenback”. However, these reasons are no longer actual.

The statistics published today showed that the Australian Trade Balance dropped to AUD$8.32 billion in June against the expected reading of AUD$10.0 billion. The components of the report show that the Export gained 2.6% after losing 9.9% the month before, while the Import went from 5.2% to 4.5%.

Globally, Australia could have enhanced its standing on the world economic stage by increasing the production of coal and other energy resources. Australia already did this in the past, but about ten years ago the country started to restructure and diversify its economy. As a result, coal mining was no longer the key income source for the budget.

Nowadays, demand for alternative sources of energy is increasing. Possibly, Australia might expand its share in this market. However, if it happens, the AUD might get more volatile due to the fluctuations in energy prices.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Investors must accept the weak Euro. Overview for 07.10.2022

The major currency pair is looking weak on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9800.

Investors revived their interest in “safe haven” assets amid deterioration of market sentiment and the USD is taking the centre stage. At the same time, the Euro is getting weaker after the comments from the International Monetary Fund about raising concerns about global recession and worsening forecasts of the global economy next year.

Yesterday, the US reported on the Unemployment Claims, which showed 219K against the expected reading of 205K. The last week’s reading was revised downwards. It looks like the previous improvement was local.

Today’s trading session is going to be interesting. The US continue publishing the labour market statistics. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 3.7%, while the Average Hourly Earnings might add 0.3% m/m. The key highlight is the Non-Farm Payrolls, which may show 265K In September after being 315K the month before.

The US FOMC is keeping a close eye to the statistics – the data will help the regulator make monetary policy effectiveness. As a result, EURUSD might get more volatile in the evening.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Euro retreated. Overview for 10.10.2022

The major currency pair remains weak. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9720.

The labour market statistics for September published by the US last Friday were quite positive. For example, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5% after being 3.7% the month before, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Average Hourly Earnings added 0.3% m/m, the same as expected. On YoY, the indicator showed 5.0% after being 5.2% in August.

The Non-Farm Payrolls data showed 263K, which is better than expected, after being 315K in the previous month.

On one hand, the labour market is looking as stable as before, and it’s a good signal. On the other hand, salaries, a pro-inflation indicator, dropped a bit. However, this decline is too insignificant to prevent the US FOMC from continuing its aggressive monetary policy.

The Fed’s monetary plans remain the same – it’s too early to think of making a pause in rate hikes.

The benchmark interest rate is likely to reach 4% by the end of 2022. For the “greenback”, it’s a very positive vibe.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Statistics made the Pound fall. Overview for 11.10.2022

The Pound Sterling is retreating against the USD. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1012.

The USD is raising pressure on other currencies. The reason is global risk aversion in capital markets.

The statistics published by the United Kingdom in the morning were rather mixed. For example, the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5% in August after being 3.6% the month before, although it wasn’t expected to change. The Average Earnings Index gained 6.0% 3m/y after adding 5.5% 3m/y in the previous period and against the expected growth of 5.9% 3m/y.

It appears that the growth in salaries is the result of mass strikes that took place in the UK in July and August.

There is some tension resulting from the Claimant Count Change report, which showed 25.5K in September against the expected reading of 4.2K. At the same time, the August reading was revised upwards, from 6.3K to 1.1K.

In September, the labour market might have lost a lot of job due to seasonal periodicity. However, if the October data confirms the trend, one may talk about an escalation of the labour market crisis. For the Pound, it’s bad news.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD found support. Overview for 12.10.2022

The major currency pair managed to reach stability on Wednesday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9730.

The United States secretary of the treasury Janet Yellen believes the current USD rate reflects the corresponding monetary policy. According to Yellen, there are no signs of financial instability in global capital markets. She said that strengthening of the American currency is a logical result of different policies e also said that a decline in the number of jobs offered relieves some stress in the employment sector.

The September labour market data showed stability in the sector: the Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5%, the Non-Farm Payrolls showed 263K. Experts were expecting weaker readings, which might force the US FOMC to slow down its aggressive monetary tightening. However, it didn’t work.

In the afternoon, the Euro Area will report on the Industrial Production, which might add 0.6% m/m in August after losing 2.3% m/m the month before. Later in the evening, investors will switch their attention to the FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD is stable. Overview for 13.10.2022

The major currency pair is looking neutral on Thursday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9700.

The currency market seems to have calmed down – you don’t often see such a situation recently. Investors decided to simply monitor what is happening in the market in anticipation of important statistics.

Yesterday, the US FOMC released its latest Meeting Minutes. The document says that the regulator must switch and stick to a more aggressive monetary policy to reach inflation targets. Many members of the Committee revised their opinions on the highest rate value. They say that after raising the rate to the particular level, the FOMC should keep it there for a specific period of time.

All these remarks are quite standard. Among more important and unusual things was the comment about the importance of adjusting the pace of future rate hikes and monetary policy strengthening in order to avoid significant negative consequences of the country’s economy and its future outlook.

In other words – the regulator should raise the rate in a way it won’t hurt the economy.

Later today, investors should pay attention to the inflation data for September from the US. The indicator is expected to show 0.2% m/m after being 0.1% m/m in the previous month.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EUR found a reason to grow. Overview for 14.10.2022

The major currency pair is stable on Friday. The current quote for the instrument is 0.9780.

Yesterday the US released this week’s key report, the CPI for September. The indicator dropped to 8.2% y/y after being 8.3% y/y in August, which is quite good. However, on MoM, it added 0.4% against the expected reading of 0.2%.

No matter how you slice it, inflation in the US remains at its all-time highs.

The Core CPI updated its 1982 high and reached 6.6% y/y against the expected reading of 6.5% y/y.

When making monetary decisions, the US FOMC uses the other inflation indicator, PCE Price Core. It was released earlier and turned out to be rather neutral. However, it doesn’t mean that the regulator pays no attention to other CPI reports.

At some point of time, the USD was in demand, but it retreated after market tendencies reversed.

Later today, investors should switch to the Retail Sales report for September. There will be no hype around the release like yesterday, but the statistics might provide the latest data on the sector and consumer sentiment.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Yen heading for new lows. Overview for 17.10.2022

Japanese yen paired with the US dollar has returned to a devaluation strategy. The current quote in USDJPY is 148.70. It is close to a 32-year high.

Morning statistics showed that Japan's final volume of industrial production for August rose to 3.4% y/y, while a gain of 2.7% y/y was expected, as before. This is not a bad signal, although there are opinions that it has a purely local nature.

Japanese monetary policy makers have spoken this morning and said it is appropriate to continue monetary policy easing. The Prime Minister noted the possibility of taking action against currency speculation.

The yen's devaluation is a consequence of the difference between the monetary strategies of the BoJ and the world's leading central banks. The BoE is now probably the only one that implements economic stimulus and keeps the interest rate negative.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Australian dollar is trying to rise. Overview for 18.10.2022

The Australian dollar remains in a weak position against the US dollar, although it is trying to bounce back. The current quote in the AUDUSD is 0.6308. Relations with China are coming to the fore for Australia. The Prime Minister said today that Australia should cooperate with China wherever possible.

China has cancelled its planned block of macrostatistics for publication today. Amongst the reports were the GDP figures for the third quarter of 2022. The economy was supposed to have risen by only 3.5% y/y. For the PRC this is too low. The Australian exchange rate might have reacted negatively to the weak statistics.

According to one of the RBA's assistant governors, we should expect further rate hikes from the regulator in the coming months. That said, the position is that the RBA will be able to achieve the same interest rate hikes as the major central banks at the expense of fewer steps.

As previously reported, the timing and pace of rate increases will be determined on the basis of incoming data, primarily the characteristics of household spending, wage developments, the state of the world economy and so on. One of the key policy objectives of the RBA is now to bring inflation back to the target level.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

741 (edited by RF roboforex 2022-10-19 11:56:41)

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD is stable. Overview for 19.10.2022

The main currency pair looks stable on Wednesday. The current quote in EURUSD is 0.9830. The day before there was a local increase in risk appetite. On the one hand, spot gas prices in Europe have normalised. This is due to the high level of gas storage capacity (e.g. 97% in Germany) and the warm weather. As long as climatic conditions permit, gas withdrawals have been reduced.

On the other hand, China has refused to publish Q3 GDP statistics and a number of other indicators. The decision probably stems from a desire not to disturb the already emotional capital markets. Overall, this is what is keeping EURUSD "balanced".

Today the Eurozone will present the final inflation calculation for September. The consumer price index is likely to remain at 10.0% y/y, as shown by the initial release. Core inflation was 4.8% y/y. There are no "surprises" in the data, but one can be surprised by how quickly prices are "accelerating".

The US is preparing to release reports on the number of building permits and new home starts. Reactions to the data are unlikely: investors are interested in news of a different order - for example, what the Fed's rate will do next.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Yen is even weaker. Overview for 20.10.2022

The Japanese yen paired with the US dollar has fallen to another low in more than 30 years. The current quote in the USDJPY is 149.94. The devaluation of the yen is "in full swing" and this is now really scaring the monetary authorities in Japan. The situation is clearly spiralling out of control.

This morning the Central Bank announced its readiness to urgently purchase USD 667 million worth of government bonds in order to stabilise the debt market. The decision was probably taken after the yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 0.225%, which exceeded BoE targets.

The Japanese Prime Minister estimates that the economy is facing external risks and realising the consequences of foreign developments. The Japanese authorities are now preparing a stimulus package for the economic system and are likely to decide on the level of spending.

Earlier, the monetary watchdogs had carried out a massive 2.84 trillion yen currency intervention. But these measures had only a short-term effect.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

The Pound "says goodbye" to the prime minister. Overview for 21.10.2022

The British pound sterling is down against the US dollar on Friday. The current quote in GBPUSD is 1.1190. So, another political intrigue in the UK has been resolved. Prime Minister Liz Truss has resigned over the consequences of the economic programme she was promoting. "A 'split' in the ranks of the Conservative Party is unusual in itself. But when you remember that Truss proposed to reduce taxes by increasing the national debt and at the same time reducing confidence in the British economy in general, everything falls into place.

Truss' resignation came a day after the minister of the interior stepped down. Earlier, the finance minister had left their post.

For now the political debate and the search for a new head of government will remain the "focus" of market attention.

At the same time, it is worth keeping an eye on what the Bank of England will do now. Earlier comments were made by its representatives that rates might not rise as quickly as the markets would like them to. The English regulator is facing a fantastically difficult task in reducing inflationary pressures. The consumer price index has reached double digits and for conservative England this is a huge "stress".

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EURUSD: Fed's interest rate is in focus again. Overview for 24.10.2022

On Monday, the EURUSD major looks quite stable. The current quote is 0.9840 In the US Fed, they are discussing an increase in the interest rate by 75 base points again, as reported in a WSJ publication. Some members of the monetary committee do not exclude the chance for a slow-down in the tightening of the credit and monetary policy later. The Fed will hold a meeting at the beginning of November.

On Thursday this week, the European Central Bank will also have a meeting. As a result, the interest rate might grow by 50 or even 75 base points, or at least this is what the inflation situation requires. According to average market expectations, the ECB interest rate will have reached 3% by the end of Q1, 2023.

Increased price pressure on the economy might become the factor that will make the ECB act more decisively. It should also be remembered that the European regulator has already acknowledged the CPI as a serious trouble, though it refuse to move as fast as the Fed.

The chance for a higher than usual increase in the interest rate supports the EUR.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Pound is looking for foothold. Overview for 25.10.2022

On Tuesday, the British pound against the US dollar looks neutral. The current quote is 1.1300. The main political intrigue of Great Britain got solved faster than anyone could expect. The new head of the Conservative Party and simultaneously the new PM was elected Rishi Sunak. He is the first PM of Indian origin and the youngest one over the last 200 years.

For GBP, this is good news, though it remains unclear how Sunak will be saving the drowning economy of Britain.

The market is now focusing on the November meeting of the Bank of England. It is scheduled for the first week of the month already. Averaged market expectations presume that the interest rate might be lifted by a lot at once. However, compared to the aggressive monetary policy of the US, this will definitely not be enough. In these circumstances, no aggressive growth of the pound should be expected.

The weak fundamental background in the medium run will for now be playing against any attempts of the pound to start growing.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Euro/dollar: parity again. Overview for 26.10.2022

On Wednesday, the market major reached parity. The current quote is 1.0000.

On the one hand, the US dollar got seriously affected by the disappointing statistics from yesterday. The Conference Board CCI in October dropped to 102.5 from 107.8 previously. The forecast had suggested a decline to 105.90. The dwelling prices statistics never impressed the market either.

The profitability of the 10-year treasury bonds crashed, dragging the dollar behind.

On the other hand, warm weather in Europe and enough gas in underground storages postpone the start of the heating season in the region. This saves gas and has a good influence on the euro.

On the whole, investors are ready for risks, which supports the Euro.

Market attention remains focused on the meeting of the European Central Bank that is due on Thursday. The main expectation is the growth of the interest rate by 75 base points.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Australian dollar paused. Overview for 27.10.2022

The Australian dollar against its US colleague has stabilised after a wave of growth. The current quote is 0.6473.

The Reserve Bank of Australia doubts the economic perspectives due to high inflation. In a tweet posted yesterday, the RBA still expresses its resignation to keep lifting the interest rate until inflation is brought to order.

This is a positive message for the AUD. It means the financial policy will remain tight, which is good for the national currency.

With the USD being weak, the Aussie got much stronger earlier. Now the market is wondering whether the time has come for a technical pullback; strategically, however, the situation in the currency sector has not changed. Risks can become acute at any moment, and the USD has no rivals as a protective asset.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

EUR dropped on facts. Overview for 28.10.2022

At the end of the week, the market major stays under the parity level. The current quote is 0.9999.

The last trading session turned out very active and eventful.

The October session of the European Central Bank ended in the expected increase in the interest rate by 75 base points to 2.00% annual from 1.25% previously. In the comments, the ECB repeated that it would aim at inflation of 2.00% as before.

The market reaction was natural: getting facts at hand, investors hurried to take the profit made on expectations.

The US issued curious reports. The prelim GDP estimation for Q3 showed growth of the economy by 2.6% against the forecast 2.3% and the previous decline by 0.6%. Such a noticeable impulse upwards is a good signal.

Durable goods order volume in September in the US grew by 0.4% but missed expectations. Still, this result partially covered up for the decline from August.

Today investors will keep an eye on the Q3 GDP statistics from France and Germany, as well as personal expenses and earnings of Americans in September.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Yen is balanced. Overview for 31.20.2022

On Monday, the Japanese yen against the US dollar looks neutral. The current quote is 148.25.

The yen is becoming weaker again after large-scale interventions of the Bank of Japan. The process will not be fast, because the market is still full of money. However, the yen has no other option than to fall as long as the difference between monetary approaches and interest rates of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve System remains so huge.

Morning statistics from Japan turned out to be mixed.

Particularly, retail sales in September grew by 4.5% y/y against 4.1% in August and the forecast decline to 4.0%. This is a good signal even with the growing inflation.

The Japanese CCI dropped to 29.9 points from 30.8 before. It had been expected, however, to grow to 31 points.

The number of new houses starts in September, which is the most important index for the real estate market, grew by just 1% upon growing by 4.6% in August. The decrease in the segment might be due to the speeding-up of growth of the CPI.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

Re: Forex Fundamental Analysis & Forecast by RoboForex

Australian dollar grew after RBA decision. Overview for 01.11.2022

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar started growing against the US counterpart. The current quote is 0.6419.

At the meeting the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the interest rate to 2.85% annual from 2.60% previously. This decision was anticipated, and this increase by 25 base points goes in line with the previously voiced RBA policy. This is the seventh increase in a row, so the interest rate has reached the high since April 2013. It seems that the rate is likely to keep growing: the RBA might go on raising it to hold back inflation.

In the comments, the Australian regulator mentioned that the growth of the interest rate is necessary for forming a good balance of supply and demand inside the economic system.

According to RBA expectations, inflation will reach the peak in Q4, hitting 8.00%. In 2023, average CPI is expected to be 4.75%, and in 2024 – 3.00%.

For the Aussie, all said above is a positive supportive factor.

Forecasts for other instruments can be found in the section "Forex Forecasts and Analysis" on our website.

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