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XRPUSD - Murrey analysis

The XRPUSD pair continues to trade within a long-term downtrend. However, in early June, the quotes formed a sideways range of 0.293–0.366, which they still cannot leave. Last week, the cryptocurrency again tested its upper limit but failed to break through higher and began to decline. At present, the price of the asset has consolidated below 0.3418, supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands, which gives the prospect of further decline to 0.2930. In case of a repeated breakout of 0.3418, the price will return to the area of 0.3662. In general, movement is predicted within the formed sideways range since there are no serious drivers for a trend change in the market.

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Technical indicators show opposite signals, confirming the uncertainty of the market: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic reversed downwards, and the MACD histogram is near the zero line. Its volumes are insignificant.

Resistance levels: 0.3418, 0.366, 0.39 | Support levels: 0.3174, 0.293


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AUDUSD, H4
On the four-hour chart, at 0.6860, there is the formation of the Three advancing white soldiers pattern, meaning buyers have seized the initiative and intend to restore positions. In turn, the appearance of the Three “bullish” steps pattern also signals the continuation of the upward dynamics, and the “bullish” Marubozu pattern indicates the predominance of “bullish” sentiment. In the current situation, the asset will most likely continue to recover to the resistance level of 0.7037, which will allow the quotes to head to the zone of 0.7191−0.7397. An alternative scenario is possible after the consolidation below the support level of 0.6860, and then the downward movement may intensify to 0.6437.

https://i.ibb.co/F498qwk/audusd-1.png

AUDUSD, D1
On the daily chart, a Falling wedge price pattern is being formed, from which the asset managed to break up, but its implementation has not yet been completed. The “bullish” mood for the instrument is also confirmed by a series of formed Three “bullish” steps figures, which serve as signals for the continuation of the uptrend. Most likely, the trading instrument will strengthen the upward dynamics to 0.7037, consolidation above which will become a catalyst for the movement of quotations to the area of 0.7191−0.7397.

Support levels: 0.686, 0.6686, 0.6437 | Resistance levels: 0.7037, 0.7191, 0.7397

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Solid ECN Products

A professional method to secure assets reasonably is diversified trading. Trading on limited numbers of instruments was never suggested by the market leaders and hedge funders. They always spread their investments among commodities, indices, and or currencies. Diversity is one of the many keys to having success in the trading world.

At Solid ECN, clients have access to trade the world with high leverage whilst the spread is tightened at its minimum. You can create your dealing basket to enjoy the product diversity with Solid ECN. We strive to offer our customers the most popular and trending products, and we made a live and long list of trading instruments.

As of writing the list contains 250 products including:

> Forex (Major | Crosses | Minor)
> Precious Metals (Gold | Silver | Palladium | Platinum)
> Energy (Brent | WTI)
> Indices (spot)
> Nasdaq
> EPA (Adidas | British American Tobacco | BMW | Airbus and more …)
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$50 No Deposit Bonus

Solid ECN offers its clients multiple trading benefits to stay at Solid ECN, starting with a $50 Trading Bonus. In other words, we give you $50 worth of credit (non-withdrawable) just for opening your first Real Account, allowing you to test our products and services by starting to trade with no initial deposit.

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Last week, the BTCUSD pair had ambiguous dynamics.

First, the price fell to the 22200 area due to fears of a sharp increase in interest rates and the "hawkish" rhetoric from US Federal Reserve officials, as inflation in the country reached a record level of 9.1%. The regulator's decision was restrained, the interest rate was raised only by 75 basis points, and the head of the department, Jerome Powell, acknowledged the possibility of a further slowdown in its growth, which provoked a positive trend in "digital gold." The following data on the US gross domestic product (GDP) decline in the second quarter by 0.9%, which means the beginning of a technical recession in the US economy, contributed to an even greater decline in the dollar and the strengthening of alternative assets. Investors have again turned to cryptocurrencies as shelter assets, fearing worsening economic problems, which has caused enthusiasm among members of the digital community. Thus, the CEO of the Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, said in an interview with CNBC that the current increase in inflation, along with the decline in the world's leading economies, could lead to further popularization of digital assets. The businessman also considers holding the important mark of 20000 by the price as a positive moment, from which the beginning of a new growth cycle is possible.

However, the current situation does not yet mean a reversal of the long-term downtrend since the US Federal Reserve, despite the likely slowdown in monetary policy tightening, will not completely abandon it, and the final quarterly US GDP data may turn out to be better than the preliminary ones, which will once again force investors to buy the dollar.

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The price corrected downwards from the area of 24600, but for a serious decline, it needs to consolidate below the middle line of Bollinger bands around 22400. In this case, the quotes will be able to drop to 20000 (bottom line of Bollinger bands) and 18750. Otherwise, growth will resume to 25000 and 28125. Technical indicators suggest that the short-term uptrend will continue, as Bollinger bands are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone, while Stochastic is leaving the overbought zone, but so far, the downside potential is seen as limited.

Resistance levels: 25000, 28125, 31250 | Support levels: 22400, 20000, 18750

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84 (edited by SolidECN 2022-08-02 08:13:11)

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$50 No Deposit Bonus

Solid ECN offers its clients multiple trading benefits to stay at Solid ECN, starting with a $50 Trading Bonus. In other words, we give you $50 worth of credit (non-withdrawable) just for opening your first Real Account, allowing you to test our products and services by starting to trade with no initial deposit.


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This promotion is available to all traders opening a Solid ECN Real Account for the first time. This promotion is not available for the citizens of Indonesia, Russia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Egypt, Iraq, Pakistan, Syria, Afghanistan, and Palestine.

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ETHUSD - The decline may continue

This week, the ETHUSD pair is correcting downwards, losing the positions won last week, against the background of a possible slowdown in the pace of monetary policy tightening in the USA and the expectation of an early transition of the Ethereum network to the PoS proof algorithm.

Experts note that there is "fatigue" in the market from the constant news about the approaching merger of the Ethereum 1.0 and Ethereum 2.0 networks. Most investors have already put money in the purchase of ETH and are now waiting for an immediate update, which is scheduled for mid-September. Up to this point, observers do not rule out the continuation of the pair's decline or its consolidation.

In addition, the overall pressure on the market is exerted by monetary factors. Despite the possibility of reducing the pace of interest rate hikes, which was mentioned last week by the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell, the regulator will not give up tightening monetary policy to combat inflation and will spend it for a considerable time, strengthening the position of the US currency in relation to competitors. 

https://i.ibb.co/yfkht6V/eth.png

The price has corrected to the area of 1570, but for further serious decline it will need to consolidate below the strong support level of 1500 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, Fibo retracement 23.6%). In this case, the reduction targets will be 1375 and 1250. The key for the "bulls" remains the level of 1750, the breakout of which will give the prospect of resuming growth to the levels of 1875 (Fibo retracement 38.2%), 2000, and 2125.

Resistance levels: 1750, 1875, 2000, 2125 | Support levels: 1500, 1375, 1250


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What Is a Margin Call?

A margin call occurs when the value of an investor’s margin account falls below the broker’s required amount. An investor’s margin account contains securities bought with borrowed money (typically a combination of the investor’s own money and money borrowed from the investor’s broker). A margin call refers specifically to a broker’s demand that an investor deposit additional money or securities into the account so that it is brought up to the minimum value, known as the maintenance margin.

A margin call is usually an indicator that one or more of the securities held in the margin account has decreased in value. When a margin call occurs, the investor must choose to either deposit additional funds or marginable securities in the account or sell some of the assets held in their account.

> A margin call occurs when a margin account runs low on funds, usually because of a losing trade.

> Margin calls are demands for additional capital or securities to bring a margin account up to the minimum maintenance margin.

> Since short sales can only be made in margin accounts, margin calls can also occur when a stock goes up in price and losses start mounting in accounts that have sold the stock short.



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What Is Netting?

Netting entails offsetting the value of multiple positions or payments due to be exchanged between two or more parties. It can be used to determine which party is owed remuneration in a multiparty agreement. Netting is a general concept that has a number of more specific uses, including in the financial markets.

Netting offsets the value of multiple positions or payments due to be exchanged between two or more parties.
Netting is used in a number of settings and instances—securities or currency trading, bankruptcy, and inter-company transactions, among others.
Netting can involve more than two parties, called multilateral netting, and generally involves a central exchange or clearinghouse.

How Netting Works

Netting is a method of reducing risks in financial contracts by combining or aggregating multiple financial obligations to arrive at a net obligation amount. Netting is used to reduce settlement, credit, and other financial risks between two or more parties.

Netting is often used in trading, where an investor can offset a position in one security or currency with another position either in the same security or a different one. The goal of netting is to offset losses in one position with gains in another. For example, if an investor is short 40 shares of a security and long 100 shares of the same security, the position is net long 60 shares.


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ASK (OFFER) PRICE

The price at which the market is prepared to sell a product. Prices are quoted two-way as Bid/Ask. The Ask price is also known as the Offer. In FX trading, the Ask represents the price at which a trader can buy the base currency, shown to the left in a currency pair. For example, in the quote USDCHF 1.4527/32, the base currency is USD, and the Ask price is 1.4532, meaning you can buy one US dollar for 1.4532 Swiss francs.

In CFD trading, the Ask also represents the price at which a trader can buy the product. For example, in the quote for UK OIL 111.13/111.16, the product quoted is UK OIL and the Ask price is £111.16 for one unit of the underlying market.

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Crude Oil - OPEC+ ignores US pressure

Cartel Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said that the increase in production in September by 100 K barrels per day is not a mechanism for influencing oil quotations but acts as a check to ensure a complete balance of supply and demand. According to members of the organization, it is not the oil price that causes much greater concern but the low financing of the oil sector in the world, which this year has decreased from 600 B dollars to 450 B dollars. Thus, according to the results of the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia will increase production by 26.0K barrels per day, and the remaining 48.0K will fall on other members of OPEC+.

Demand for contracts by investors continues to decline gradually, reaching its lowest levels since 2016. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positions amounted to only 253.8K compared to 259.3K a week earlier.

https://i.ibb.co/F59dk3c/oil.png

On the global chart of the asset, the price is moving within the local downward channel, heading towards the support line. Technical indicators keep a clear sell signal and completely exclude a reversal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 96.48, 105.23 | Support levels: 92.48, 85.60

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XAGUSD - Growth is possible.

On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level formed as the second wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed. Now, the third wave (3) has formed, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the XAGUSD pair will grow to the levels of 22.47–25.4. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 18.27.

https://i.ibb.co/Y05G8TN/silver.png

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How to avoid being affected by inflation

For people who have a free, but not anarchic lifestyle, trading is another possibility to earn extra money. The most important factor is time, if you have it at your disposal, you can use it to make trades that lead you to live in a different way.

How to avoid being affected by inflation

Unfortunately, inflation is a very topical issue. At the time of writing, inflation in Europe is high and in Spain it has shot up to 8.7%. To sum it up quickly, inflation is how much prices are rising and the cause of money losing value. Realistic, analytical and scientific trading will increase your winning positions, get money back and, of course, protect you from inflation. This is because you will increase your income and avoid going into debt to continue living, which is unfortunately a very common practice.

We insist on the importance of training, doing trading is not to arrive and kiss the saint, it has a huge work behind that, too often, is not seen. If you have taken a stroll around the supermarket these days, you will have noticed that most of the products sold there are more expensive.

How to increase your savings

Many people who started out trading as a casual activity have gone on to make it a way to increase their income and, therefore, their ability to save. Trading is not about getting in and getting rich, in fact, those who go in with those intentions quickly achieve the opposite. If you keep a cool head and set aside a certain amount of your earnings, you will be acquiring financial freedom and you will have a basis for anything. Get the idea that trading is about casting the net and catching fish, not filling the boat immediately. If you are willing to make trading a way to hold on to your savings, you can do it as long as you take small steps.

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BTC USD - short-term price correction possible

The main driver of positive dynamics was the July data on US inflation: a slowdown in its growth to 8.5% made many investors hope that the peak of consumer price growth in the country has passed, and the indicator will now begin to move towards the target level of 2.0%, which may force the US Federal Reserve to abandon a sharp rate hike of 75 or 100 percentage points at the next meetings. It, in turn, became a catalyst for the active decline of the dollar against its main competitors. Also, the transition of the Ethereum network to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) proof algorithm, scheduled for mid-September, arouses the interest of traders in the entire cryptocurrency market and “digital gold” in particular.

https://i.ibb.co/GMFg6yv/btcusd.png

The price has rolled back down and not consolidated above 25000. Judging by the reversal of Stochastic near the overbought zone, the decline may continue to the middle line of Bollinger bands around 23650, and in case the quotes consolidate below it and 23437.5, return to 21875. Otherwise, growth will resume towards 25000, 26562.5, and 28125.

Resistance levels: 25000, 26562.5, 28125 | Support levels: 23437.5, 21875, 20312

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Dow Jones - The US market continues to rise

Tomorrow, investors will pay attention to the financial publications of two retail market leaders, Walmart Inc. and Home Depot Inc. From Walmart Inc. analysts expect revenue of 150.93 billion dollars, well above the 141.57 billion dollars shown in the previous quarter. At the same time, Home Depot Inc. also could well outperform the first quarter of 38.91 billion dollars to 43.36 billion dollars, and EPS could reach 4.94 dollars, which has never happened before in the company's history.

https://i.ibb.co/JdxpCwL/ym.png

Quotes of the index left the limits of a wide downward channel, having overcome the resistance line last week. Technical indicators have already reversed and are holding a steady buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator expands in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new ascending bars in the purchase zone.

Support levels: 33290, 31626 | Resistance levels: 34050, 35274

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Key Releases

The USD today continues to strengthen against its main competitors – the euro, the pound and the yen.

Investors are still waiting for the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Fed, which should be published on Wednesday. The document may contain comments on the latest increase in interest rates, as well as hints at further actions by the financial authorities. Thus, some investors believe that the slowdown in inflation in July from 9.1% to 8.5% can act as a catalyst for adjusting the indicator by 50.0 percentage points, while others tend to move to 75.0 percentage points, since the level of consumer price growth in the country remains extremely high and threatens the purchasing power of households. In this regard, we can note a review by analysts from The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who believe that the decisions of the US Fed may be justified and not plunge the economy into a recession, but there is less and less chance of this. July data from the US construction market was also published today. The figures were mixed, with the number of building permits issued falling from 1.696M to 1.674M, better than the expected 1.650M, while the number of houses under construction corrected from 1.599M to 1.446M.


The euro is weakening today against the USD and the pound, but is strengthening against the yen.

The focus of investors is the release of data on the index of economic sentiment from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) and trade data from the eurozone countries. Indicators in August showed negative dynamics: the value for the eurozone fell from -51.1 points to -54.9 points, and for the EU economic leader, Germany, from -53.8 points to -55.2 points, which is stronger than experts expected. In general, companies' biggest fear is that a continued rise in the cost of living will be reflected in private consumption and lead to a reduction in household spending. ZEW spokesman Michael Schroeder noted that high inflation and expected increases in heating and electricity tariffs are leading to lower profit expectations for companies. Also today came out the June data on the trade balance of the eurozone, which remained in deficit in the amount of 24.6B euros against the background of the rapid rise in oil and gas prices.


The pound is weakening against the USD, but strengthening against the euro and the yen.

The data of the British labor market published today turned out to be generally weak: the unemployment rate in June remained the same and amounted to 3.8%, but employment increased only by 160.0K, which is lower than the forecasts of 256.0K, and the May indicator of 296.0K. At the same time, the level of wages continues to grow, which contributes to the development of inflation: excluding bonuses, the indicator increased by 4.75%, and including them – by 5.1%. However, it still does not keep up with the increase in prices, which creates additional pressure on the standard of living of citizens and may seriously reduce consumer demand in the future. This situation is likely to cause further sharp rate hikes by the Bank of England.


The yen is weakening today against its main competitors – the USD, the euro and the pound.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the Japanese currency is traded under the influence of external factors. It is only worth noting that investors are preparing for the publication of foreign trade data for July. It is expected that the volume of exports of goods will slow down growth from 19.35% to 18.2%, and imports of products to Japan will be the June figure of 45.7%. The trade balance deficit will increase from 1.398B to 1.405B yen. Realization of forecasts may put additional pressure on the yen. We also note that the government is preparing a new package of support for the population in the amount of 4.7T yen, the details of which are not yet known, but experts believe that it will contain measures to curb rising fuel and food prices.


The Australian dollar is weakening today against the pound and the USD, but is strengthening against the yen and has ambiguous dynamics paired with the euro.

In the focus of investors' attention is the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). According to the document, the regulator still sees the need for a further increase in interest rates in order to prevent inflation from rising, but does not have a clear plan for tightening monetary policy and will try to prevent the economy from going into recession. It should be recalled that in August the RBA raised the rate by 50 percentage points, bringing it to 1.85%.


Oil quotes are trying to grow today.

Oil quotes are attempting growth today, winning back yesterday's losses, but in general the situation on the market remains uncertain. The influence of two opposite factors is observed. On the one hand, investors fear a global economic slowdown that could hit demand for oil and fuel, as the latest economic data from China turned out to be weak: production rose by 3.8% instead of 4.6%, and retail sales – by 2. 7% instead of 5.0% expected. On the other hand, rising prices are supported by investors' hopes that the difficult economic situation will push the Chinese authorities to introduce new incentives that will revive the industry and demand. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has already promised such measures. The situation with the “nuclear deal” between Western countries and Iran also remains ambiguous. Earlier, the authorities of the Islamic Republic gave a response to the new proposals developed by EU diplomats, but the text was not made public. During the day, investors are also waiting for the publication of a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves in the USA from the American Petroleum Institute (API). The last time the figure rose by 2.156M barrels. The continuation of this trend may put pressure on oil quotes.

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Key Releases

USD is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and JPY.

The July data from the US construction market was published yesterday, which alarmed investors: the number of building permits issued decreased by 1.3%, and the volume of new homes – by 9.6%. Also, the American Association of Mortgage Bankers said that the demand for loans is at its lowest level since 2000, as potential home buyers are not ready to put up with high rates. Thus, the labor market is beginning to experience significant difficulties against the backdrop of a serious tightening of monetary policy, and some experts have already started talking about the onset of a recession in this particular economic sector. Poor July retail sales data in the US were released today, showing zero dynamics instead of the expected growth of 0.1%, as the effect of lower gasoline prices was leveled by a decrease in car sales. In the evening, investors are waiting to release the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, from which they hope to find out whether the rate will increase by 75.0 basis points, as before, or by 50.0 basis points. Any hint of a monetary policy correction could cause significant price movement.


EUR is weakening against USD but is strengthening against JPY and GBP.

Q2 Eurozone macroeconomic data were published today: gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% QoQ and 3.9% YoY, slightly lower than the forecasted 0.7% and 4.0 % but still positive. Employment in the region is also increasing, albeit slower than before: by 0.3% QoQ and by 2.4% YoY. However, experts believe that the further economic prospects for the Eurozone are negative: GDP will begin to decline in the second half of the year under the pressure of high inflation and disruptions in supply chains. Most analysts believe that by the end of the year, the European economy will enter a recession, and next year's growth will be very insignificant.


GBP weakens against USD and EUR but strengthens against JPY.

Investors are focused on the publication of July data on inflation in the UK, where the consumer price index fell from 0.8% to 0.6% MoM, not justifying the analysts' forecast of 0.4%, and it rose from 9 .4% to 10.1% YoY, which is higher than the preliminary estimate of 9.8% and is the highest value since 1982. Experts say that the main driver of inflation is the increase in energy prices, which intensified after the start of the Ukrainian crisis, and they fear that the fight against it in the UK may last longer than in other countries. Under these conditions, the actions of Bank of England officials come to the fore, who have already adjusted the interest rate six times but so far have not been able to stop the rise in prices. According to calculations, the regulator is expected to continue its hawkish policy of tightening monetary parameters, which could catalyze an even deeper recession in the British economy in the year's second half.


JPY is weakening against its main competitors – USD, EUR, and GBP.

Investors are focused on the publication of the July data on foreign trade in Japan: the volume of exports increased by 19.0% instead of 18.2%, while the volume of imports added 47.2%, which is higher than the forecasted 45.7% and brought the trade balance deficit to 1.4368T yen. In general, the situation for Japanese companies remains difficult due to rising fuel prices and a weakening yen, and experts fear that the export-oriented national economy may begin to decline in the event of a global economic crisis. Also, today, poor June data on orders in the engineering sector was released, which is the main indicator of investment in production: the indicator rose by 0.9% MoM against the forecast of 1.3%, and the value fell from 7.4% to 6.5% YoY.


AUD is weakening against its main competitors – EUR, JPY, GBP, and USD.

AUD is under pressure amid the publication of data on the wage change index in the second quarter of this year: the indicator remained at the same level of 0.7% QoQ instead of the expected growth of 0.8%, and it rose from 2.4 % to 2.6% YoY, which is less than the forecast of 2.7%. Although wages are rising at the fastest rate in almost eight years, they still lag behind the pace of inflation, so consumer demand remains under pressure, worsening the economic situation in the country. On the other hand, a serious increase in wages caused by a shortage of qualified personnel could become a catalyst for a new wave of consumer price growth, as enterprises will shift the costs of hiring and retaining employees to buyers of their products. Under these conditions, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced to continue aggressively raising interest rates, further increasing the risks of a recession in the national economy.


Oil quotes are trying to reduce.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report on energy inventories was released yesterday, which was generally positive for the market: the figure fell by 0.448M barrels, exceeding the forecasted decrease by 0.117M barrels, while gasoline inventories fell by 4.5M barrels. However, these data failed to strengthen fuel quotes significantly, as investors' fear of an impending global recession, supported by poor production data in China and July inflation statistics in the UK, continues to prevail. Today, markets are waiting for data on oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA): the value may decrease by 0.0275M barrels, which will support energy prices.

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ADAUSD - Technical analysis

The ADAUSD pair is moving within a long-term downtrend, but since the middle of last month, it has attempted to grow, forming a short-term upward channel. Currently, under the influence of the delay in the activation of the Vasil update and the publication of the latest minutes of the US Federal Reserve, which confirmed the regulator's determination to continue raising interest rates, the price has dropped to 0.5280 (the middle line of Bollinger bands, the lower limit of the ascending channel). Consolidation below this level will give the prospect of quotes returning to 0.4882 (Murrey [4/8], bottom line of Bollinger bands) and 0.4638 (Murrey [3/8]). The key "bullish" level is 0.5615 (Murrey [7/8]), which has been repeatedly tested this week, and consolidation above which will allow the trading instrument to rise to 0.5859 (Murrey [8/8]), 0.6103 (Murrey [+1 /eight]).

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Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone, and Stochastic is directed downwards. The level of 0.5280 is quite strong, so the return of the price to the upward movement within the short-term upward channel seems to be a more likely scenario.

Resistance levels: 0.5615, 0.5859, 0.6103 | Support levels: 0.5280, 0.4882, 0.4638

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Morning Market Review

EURUSD
The European currency shows mixed trading dynamics, holding near the strong psychological support at 1.0000. Market activity remains quite low as Monday's macroeconomic calendar is empty, and investors fear increasing risks in the global economy. The focus today is on the monthly report from the Bundesbank. Investors remain concerned about high inflation in the EU, which is forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to act more decisively. German producer inflation data released last Friday showed a 5.3% increase in July after rising 0.6% a month earlier, although analysts' forecasts did not suggest significant changes, and in annual terms the Producer Price Index accelerated from 32.7% to 37.2% against the expected 32.0%.

GBPUSD
The British pound is trading with mixed dynamics, holding near 1.1830 and trying to move away from the "bearish" close of trading last week. Against the backdrop of an active fall on Thursday and Friday, the British currency updated local lows from July 14. In turn, the US dollar is again actively in demand among investors, as the unstable situation on world markets is pushing them to look for new options for preserving their capital. Despite positive macroeconomic data on inflation, which receded from record highs in July, the US Federal Reserve is still set for further sharp tightening of monetary policy. A similar position is shared by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, forced to deal with high inflation at the cost of an almost inevitable recession. The latest forecasts of the British regulator suggest that the decline will be recorded as early as the fourth quarter, and the transition to growth is expected no earlier than 2024. Meanwhile, the pound received some support on Friday from Retail Sales data, showing a rise of 0.3% in July after declining by 0.2% a month earlier, although analysts had expected the negative trend to remain at –0.2%. In annual terms, sales volumes decreased by 3.4% after falling by 6.1% in June.

AUDUSD
The Australian dollar shows a noticeable increase, recovering from the "bearish" last week. The AUD/USD pair is testing 0.6900 for a breakout, retreating from the local lows of July 21, updated last Friday. The current growth of the instrument can be associated only with technical factors, while the positions of the US currency are still quite strong. In addition, earlier the US Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to the policy of a sharp increase in interest rates, intending to put an end to the risks of high inflation. The focus of investors at the beginning of the week is the decision of the People's Bank of China to cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.70% to 3.65%. Recall that since August 2019, local banks have been using the LPR parameter to calculate their floating rates, while previously a more traditional base lending rate was used. It should also be noted that last week the Chinese regulator announced a reduction in interest rates under the Medium-Term Lending Facility program (MLF), and also announced quantitative easing (QE) in the amount of 2.0 billion yuan.

USDJPY
The US dollar continues to trade with an uptrend, developing a "bullish" trend and updating local highs from July 27. The instrument continues to be supported by expectations of further tightening of monetary policy in the US, despite the fact that inflation showed a decrease in July, retreating from record levels. Meanwhile, demand for risky assets is falling amid growing fears about a possible transition of a number of developed economies into recession. In addition, traders are concerned about the situation in the energy markets against the backdrop of the approach of cold weather and the persistence of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. The Bank of Japan is noticeably inferior to the US Federal Reserve in decisive steps to curb inflation and, in particular, to adjust monetary policy parameters, since the national economy has long been under pressure from deflationary phenomena. At the moment, the situation with the growth of consumer prices has improved somewhat, but the indicator is still below the central bank's target levels. Last Friday's data showed an acceleration in the National Consumer Price Index in July from 2.4% to 2.6%, while analysts had expected a decline of 2.2%. CPI Excluding Food and Energy in July rose from 1.0% to 1.2%, while the forecast was for a slowdown in dynamics to 0.6%. At the end of the week, investors expect the publication of preliminary data on Tokyo Consumer Price Index for August.

XAUUSD
XAUUSD is trading near 1740, updating local lows from July 28. The pressure on the position of the instrument is exerted by distinct "hawkish" signals generated by the US Federal Reserve in an attempt to overcome record inflation. This week, investors are looking forward to the regulator's conference in Jackson Hole, where the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will make a traditional speech. Market participants are looking to get a few more hints on the prospects for further monetary policy, as current analyst forecasts suggest a roughly equal chance of an interest rate hike during the September meeting of the regulator by 50 basis points or by 75 basis points. In addition, the XAUUSD pair cannot change the current trend against the backdrop of a rising dollar, which is supported, among other factors, by the fall in the Chinese yuan quotes. While the US Federal Reserve is hesitant about the pace of tightening monetary parameters, the People's Bank of China is pursuing an easy monetary policy and adjusting interest rates downwards in order to support the national economy after the coronavirus pandemic. The country still adheres to a "zero tolerance" policy for the possibility of an increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in the population, which leads to


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