1 (edited by SolidECN 2022-05-10 12:11:44)

Topic: Crude Oil

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Brent Crude Oil prices are consolidating near 104.00, correcting after an active decline yesterday. At the beginning of the current trading week, quotes lost sharply in value in response to reports that several EU countries are still blocking the introduction of a full-fledged oil embargo on supplies from Russia.

Last Sunday, the leaders of the G7 countries held talks via videoconference, within which the decision to phase out energy resources and ban the import of "black gold" from Russia was supported. Against this background, the participating countries pledged to cooperate on the issue of ensuring the stability of supplies, finding suppliers, and reducing fuel dependence. Meanwhile, negotiations in the EU concerning new sanctions under the sixth package of economic restrictions on the supply of Russian oil and petroleum products ended unsuccessfully. The representatives of Hungary voted against them, as the country's dependence on supplies from the Russian Federation is about 60%, and this blocking does not yet allow the introduction of a pan-European embargo. The next round of negotiations can be started today, but the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that progress in discussing the issue with the country's leader Viktor Orban is noticeable.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia adjusted Arab Light crude prices to 4.40 dollars per barrel for June Asian deliveries for the first time in four months. The indicator dropped significantly compared to the May value of 9.35 dollars. The decline is due to the current uncertainty in the oil market and, in particular, a possible ban on the supply of Russian "black gold" due to the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine and the strengthening of quarantine restrictions in China. The country's authorities, adhering to the policy of "zero tolerance" regarding the spread of COVID-19, introduced quarantine in Shanghai and Beijing, which led to a noticeable decrease in demand in the oil market.


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On Tuesday, traders will focus on the publication of the American Petroleum Institute (API) on stocks in the US for the week of May six. The previous report reflected a sharp decline of 3.479M barrels.


Resistance levels: 106, 109, 112, 115.5 | Support levels: 102.57, 100, 96.5, 93.34

2 (edited by SolidECN 2022-05-11 10:50:42)

Re: Crude Oil

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WTI oil prices show corrective growth during the Asian session, recovering from a rather active decline at the beginning of the current trading week. Quotes are testing the level of $101; however, the factors capable of having a significant impact on the dynamics of the trading instrument have not yet appeared on the market. Earlier, oil prices came under pressure due to the fact that the EU countries did not agree on restrictions on the import of oil products from Russia in their sixth round of sanctions. In addition, low demand for oil from China did not allow the "bulls" to develop an upward momentum in the asset.

The day before it became known that a ban on the transportation of oil was excluded from the next package of anti-Russian sanctions, since the decision provides for coordination at the international level, including representatives of the G7 countries. According to the Deutsche Presse-Agentur, countries such as Greece, Cyprus and Malta are currently opposed to restrictions, arguing that the activities of local shipping companies could be under pressure. In addition, another round of talks between French President Emmanuel Macron and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban took place the day before, and it is reported that the parties managed to reach an agreement on an embargo on Russian oil and oil products.

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Additional pressure on oil quotes was exerted by the report published the day before by the American Petroleum Institute (API) for the week ended May 6, according to which US inventories increased by 1.618 million barrels after a sharp decline by 3.479 million barrels over the past period. During the day, the dynamics of oil reserves from the US Department of Energy is expected to be released. Current forecasts suggest a decline of 1.200 million barrels after rising by 1.302 million barrels last week.

Resistance levels: 101.37, 103, 105, 107.67 | Support levels: 100, 98, 96, 93.97

Re: Crude Oil

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Benchmark Brent Crude Oil is correcting, trading just above 105 dollars per barrel. The quotes stopped their protracted decline and made a significant leap up against the backdrop of positive news from China and the growth of energy reserves in the United States.

Yesterday it became known that the situation with the spread of coronavirus infection in China has improved significantly, and the number of new cases of infection in Shanghai, where severe restrictions were introduced, decreased by 51%. On Wednesday, authorities in the industrial center said that the number of cases of COVID-19 had been reduced to zero in at least half of the city's districts, but there is no talk of lifting restrictions yet. Thus, fears for a decrease in demand in the world oil market have weakened.

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported that European politicians were preparing a plan to reduce the dependence of EU countries on imports of Russian energy resources. In particular, it is planned to develop renewable energy, increasing its share to 45%, as well as to reduce electricity consumption by 13% by 2030 instead of the 9% previously indicated. The measures will also allow significant savings on the purchase of gas, oil, and coal by 80B euros, 12B euros, and 1.7B euros per year, respectively. The document will also contain steps to replace resources from the Russian Federation in the event of an immediate cessation of supplies.

Additional support for the quotes of the asset was provided by statistical data from the United States. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase of 1.618M barrels in inventories after reducing by 3.479M a week earlier, followed by the Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported a significant increase in inventories of 8.487M barrels from 1.302M a week earlier.

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Yesterday, Washington again called on the OPEC+ countries to increase oil production levels. In case of refusal, Saudi Arabia will be accused of cartel conspiracy, and a corresponding bill will be adopted. Current production levels, according to the US authorities, could push the economy into recession, contribute to a crisis in the cost of living, and put pressure on both supply and demand for energy resources. Saudi Arabia has threatened that if this bill is passed, the country will reserve the right to refuse to pay in dollars when selling oil and investing in the American economy.

On the global chart, the price moves within the Triangle pattern. Technical indicators remain uncertain without giving clear signals: the fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator are close to the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is at the transition level without leaving any of the zones.

Resistance levels: 112.2, 128.16 | Support levels: 100.5, 90

Re: Crude Oil

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During the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices are moderately declining, retreating from local highs of May 9 at 111.5 and testing 108.5.

The positive dynamics at the end of last week were due to the announcement of new restrictions on the import of Russian oil by the EU. It tries to agree on the sixth package of sanctions against the Russian economy, including a ban on oil supplies, which so far does not find unanimous support among all states since, according to Bloomberg, the heads of some of them have proposed to postpone the embargo. Although specific information was not disclosed, market participants consider a possible refusal as a sign of EU weakness. However, the European Commission was earlier ready to provide financial compensation to countries most dependent on Russian supplies, such as Hungary and Slovakia. Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban said that any changes regarding oil transportation should be discussed at EU leaders, while he announced his readiness to support a pan-European solution if pipelines that supply Russian oil are excluded from the sanctions package. Certain steps are being taken toward reducing Europe's energy dependence on Russia, and agreeing on the terms of a full or partial oil embargo is only a matter of time. Also, unilateral sanctions by the Russian government should not be ruled out.

A report from the International Energy Agency published last week had a certain impact on the market dynamics. It says that rising oil production in the Middle East and the United States will positively impact supply dynamics in the market. Also, given the declining demand for hydrocarbons, it is likely that soon it will be possible to avoid a situation of acute shortage in the market.

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On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing slightly: the price range is practically unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a relatively strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics. However, it is quickly approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 109, 112, 115.50, 118.32 | Support levels: 106, 102.57, 100, 96.5

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Re: Crude Oil

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Benchmark Brent Crude Oil price is correcting, trading just above 112 dollars per barrel.

The quotes have returned to upward dynamics against the backdrop of positive reports received this week about the stabilization of supply in the hydrocarbon market. For example, Saudi Arabia announced that it plans to increase oil production to 13.4M barrels per day by 2027. The country's energy minister, Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, said the country is ready for such an increase in production and will maintain it at this level if the market demands such a volume, but so far, this is not happening.

Iran's state oil company NIOC said it could double the current level of supplies to the global market if buyers are willing. The corporation can achieve similar volumes after the start of the second stage of development of the Azedegan field, whose reserves are estimated at 32B barrels.

Local support for the quotes of "black gold" was provided by a Reuters report, according to which India has seriously increased the volume of oil purchases from Russia. According to the agency, India has placed orders for at least 40M barrels of oil on the exchange between mid-February and now, which significantly exceeds the entire volume of purchases in 2021, which amounted to 16M barrels.

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On the global chart, the price tried to exit the Triangle pattern. The technical indicators reversed and gave a buy signal: fast EMAs of the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram again moved into the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 118.20, 131.8 | Support levels: 108.30, 98.8

Re: Crude Oil

Crude Oil, growth is possible, but correction risks remain

The quotes of WTI Crude Oil have formed a short-term upward channel and this week have reached its upper limit around 115.5.

Currently, prices are supported by positive pandemic data from China and a reduction in oil inventories in the United States. Today it became known that the Chinese authorities allowed 864 institutions to resume work in Shanghai after no new coronavirus cases were recorded outside the quarantine zones of the metropolis for three days. The retreat of the pandemic and the reopening of China's leading financial center give investors hope for stronger demand for oil in the Chinese economy. At the same time, US oil inventories declined again. According to the latest report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), the volume of oil reserves in the United States decreased by 2.445M barrels. So far, the situation seems to be favorable for the market. However, significant risks of price correction remain. They are associated with the postponement of the announced but still not implemented EU embargo on the supply of Russian "black gold." Experts fear that Hungary, which opposes the restrictions, will not be persuaded, or this process may be extremely protracted. Another negative factor for prices could be a US government permit for Chevron Corp. to negotiate oil supplies from Venezuela. If successful, the volume of energy supplies to the market may increase.

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Further price growth is slowed down by the upper limit of the rising channel, around 115.50. If it consolidates above it, the positive dynamics will continue to 118.75 (Murrey [3/8]) and 125.00 (Murrey [4/8]). If 111.50 (Fibonacci retracement 23.6%) is broken down, a correction to 106.25 (Murrey [1/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 102.50 (Fibonacci retracement 38.2%, the lower limit of the ascending channel) may develop. The indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands reverse upwards, the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone but Stochastic is getting ready to leave the overbought zone and may form a sell signal.

Resistance levels: 115.5, 118.75, 125 | Support levels: 111.5, 106.25, 102.5

Re: Crude Oil

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Yesterday, Brent Crude Oil prices declined moderately, continuing the development of the corrective impulse formed on Tuesday, when the instrument was at its local highs since March 28 and near the psychological resistance of 114 dollars per barrel.

The pressure on quotes is exerted by reports that the sixth package of EU sanctions against the Russian economy has been blocked. The new restrictions provided for a full or partial reduction in the import of Russian oil and oil products. The issue, as expected, was met with strong resistance from several members of the union, as a result of which the parties could not agree on the exact terms. Negotiations within the bloc will continue. The United States proposed not introducing a complete embargo (at least at the first stage) but implementing import duties only.

Yesterday the quotes were moderately supported by data from the US Department of Energy on the dynamics of oil reserves. Thus, for the week of May 13, oil inventories decreased by 3.394M barrels after a steady increase of 8.487M barrels over the previous period, although market forecasts assumed that positive dynamics would remain at 1.383M barrels.

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On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands show ambiguous dynamics. The price range remains virtually unchanged, remaining spacious enough for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator falls, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Having retreated from its highs, Stochastic maintains a confident downward direction and has not yet reacted to an attempt to resume growth.

It is better to keep the current short positions until the signals from technical indicators are clarified.

Resistance levels: 109, 112, 115.5, 118.32 | Support levels: 106, 102.57, 100, 96.5

https://i.ibb.co/nP0Bzvn/oil-2.png

Re: Crude Oil

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On the daily chart, the upward wave C develops, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C formed. Now, a downward correction is forming as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave of the lower level a of 2 has formed, and the wave b of 2 has ended as a triangle.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 77.08 - 62.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 115.62.

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Re: Crude Oil

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On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) of C developed, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level a of 2 is developing, within which the correctional wave (ii) of a has ended.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall within the wave (iii) of a to the levels of 82.3 - 67. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.17.

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Re: Crude Oil

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During the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices slightly decline, consolidating near 110 dollars per barrel. Yesterday, the quotes failed to record steady growth, despite the general correction of the US currency.

Investors fear that the protracted military conflict in Ukraine and the widespread decline in business activity will lead to a noticeable reduction in demand for "black gold." Nevertheless, there are also favorable factors on the market, for example, the upcoming summer season in the US, when traditionally, the demand among the population for gasoline and other petroleum products is increasing. Skeptics, however, point to a record jump in fuel prices, suggesting a decline compared to the period before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

On Tuesday, investors are focused on a block of macroeconomic PMI statistics from Europe and the US. Analysts' forecasts are very negative and suggest a general decline in indices. Also, during the day, a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on stocks in the US for the week of May 20 will be released. The previous report showed a decline of 2.445M barrels.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, which started on Sunday, said that global geopolitical tensions amid the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine and the ensuing energy security crisis should not lead to even greater dependence states from fossil fuels. Currently, energy prices are too high, which is a negative factor for economic recovery around the world, especially in developing importing countries. The official also said that increased demand for "black gold" in China could pressure the global economy.

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On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat: the price range remains practically unchanged, remaining quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator tries to reverse into a downward plane, keeping its previous buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic remains relatively strong growth. However, it is close to its highs, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 112, 114.09, 115.5, 118.32 | Support levels: 109, 106, 102.57, 100

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Re: Crude Oil

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The price of WTI Crude Oil is correcting in an uptrend at 110.1, continuing its volatile dynamics and being under pressure from an unstable fundamental background.

The day before, it became known that the United Arab Emirates resumed the supply of "black gold" to the countries of the European Union after an almost two-year break against the backdrop of a reduction in energy imports from Russia. The first vessel with 1 million barrels of oil on board has already departed for the Dutch port of Rotterdam and, according to Bloomberg TotalEnergies SE has chartered another tanker that is supposed to deliver Arab oil to Egypt, from where it will also enter the EU through an oil pipeline.

According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions on the asset over the past week increased to 325.6 thousand from 310.8 thousand positions a week earlier, which is fully reflected in the quotes on the stock exchange. In addition, the stabilization of "black gold" reserves in the United States should be noted, which, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), increased by 0.567 million barrels over the past week after falling by 2.445 million a week earlier.

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After overcoming the upper limit of the global Triangle pattern, the price continues to trade without a pronounced trend. Technical indicators continue holding a buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator started expanding in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is still trading in the purchase zone while forming correctional bars.

Support levels: 106.80, 94.74 | Resistance levels: 113.67, 124.96

Re: Crude Oil

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During the morning session, Brent Crude Oil prices remain around 111 dollars per barrel. Quotes are moderately supported by expectations of a growing shortage of raw materials yesterday, the summer automobile season in the United States with the simultaneous opening of enterprises in China after the end of the quarantine caused by a new outbreak of COVID-19. Due to the deterioration of the geopolitical situation around Ukraine, the supply of energy resources on the market is noticeably declining, while OPEC+ is in no hurry to increase the current quotas for increasing hydrocarbon production. The cartel members are satisfied with the situation of a moderate, controlled deficit, which allows them to maintain a fairly high level of prices for oil and petroleum products.

The instrument was also supported by the published report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) on the dynamics of energy stocks in warehouses. Thus, for the week of May 20, the indicator fell by 1.019M barrels after a reduction of 3.394M barrels over the previous period. Analysts had expected a more modest decrease of 0.737M barrels.

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On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat: the price range has not changed much since the beginning of the week, remaining quite spacious for the current level of activity in the market. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic keeps a moderate upward direction but is near its highs, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 112, 114.09, 115.50, 116.5 | Support levels: 109, 106, 102.57, 100

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Re: Crude Oil

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The reference Brent Crude Oil prices increase, trading just above 116 dollars per barrel amid anxious information regarding the capture of two Greek oil tankers.

As it became known yesterday, the Corps of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution captured two oil Greek tankers in the Persian Gulf. The action was an answer to the recent decision of the Athenian Court to transfer to the United States Iranian oil from the detained Russian tanker. Similar incidents in the Persian Gulf threaten the entire traffic of oil supply through the Ormuzian Strait, and some suppliers have already begun to think over alternative routes, which will significantly increase the costs of transportation and energy supply time.

Also, to the fundamental background, statistics signal in favor of the growth of the instrument. According to the US Commodity Futures Trade Commission (CFTC), the demand for oil contracts by traders began to increase sharply, and last week their number rose to 334.8K, exceeding 325.6K a week earlier, indicating the intention of the majority of the traders to purchase them in their long-term portfolios.

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On the global chart, the asset is growing within the development of the global Triangle pattern with the ultimate target around the year’s high of 130. Technical indicators keep a stable buy signal: the fast EMA of the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, expanding the oscillation range, and the AO indicator histogram forms upward bars in the buy zone.

Resistance levels: 118.50, 130 | Support levels: 112.3, 100.8

Re: Crude Oil

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Brent Crude Oil prices show moderate growth, developing a strong "bullish" momentum formed last week and updating local highs from March 24. At the moment, the instrument is testing the level of 118.9.

Representatives of the EU countries, after lengthy negotiations, agreed on the sixth package of sanctions, which, among other things, includes a partial embargo on the supply of Russian oil, and also prohibits operations related to insurance of the delivery of energy from the Russian Federation to third countries. Earlier Hungarian officials opposed a complete ban on energy imports, comparing it with dropping a nuclear bomb on their economy, and Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that he would support anti-Russian sanctions only after providing guarantees on alternative fuel supplies. In the end, EU leaders still managed to reach an agreement on a partial ban that would not affect Hungary. The restrictions will affect the purchase of "black gold" supplied by sea, but will allow a number of countries to use the existing infrastructure, in particular, the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which deliveries to Germany and Hungary are possible.

The rise in prices for oil and oil products is also facilitated by the beginning of the automobile season in the US, where record prices for gasoline are fixed. The decision of the Chinese authorities also has a positive effect on the quotes: from June 1, the work of enterprises in Shanghai is resumed, and a number of restrictions on the operation of public transport and retail outlets are lifted in Beijing.

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Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding, but it fails to catch the development of "bullish" trend at the moment. MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has approached its highs, indicating the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 120, 122.60, 125.85 | Support levels: 118, 115.5, 114.09, 112

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Re: Crude Oil

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The North American WTI Crude Oil price is correcting in an uptrend around 114.78.

The Wall Street Journal published an article stating the intention of some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to work out a plan to exclude Russia from the OPEC+ deal. According to experts, Western sanctions and a ban on the import of energy resources by the EU countries will lead to the fact that the production of Russian "black gold" will be reduced by 8% in 2022, and the country will not be able to support the cartel's plan to increase production. However, investors and many analysts have already questioned the reliability of this information since a few days earlier, Saudi Energy Minister Salman bin Abdul-Aziz announced the creation of a draft new OPEC+ agreement, which would include Russia. According to the official, the organization intends to increase production if the oil demand is sufficient. He also stressed that there was no place for politics in an agreement on which the energy stability of the whole world depends.

As for the current demand for oil contracts from investors, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in the asset over the past week increased to 334.8K from 325.6K, which confirms the stable interest of traders for the seventh week in a row.

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The price continues to work out a stable buy signal after overcoming the upper border of the Triangle pattern. At the moment, indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range is actively expanding upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is trading high in the buying zone, forming rising bars.

Resistance levels: 115.85, 123.8 | Support levels: 111.77, 98.24

Re: Crude Oil

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Last Tuesday, May 31, the leaders of the countries of the European Union agreed on the sixth package of economic sanctions, which included an embargo on the import of two-thirds of Russian "black gold". Against this backdrop, Brent Crude Oil quotes reached new highs around 122.

The new restrictive measures include a ban on the import of energy resources transported by sea, but do not affect supplies to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline. Officials also said that by the end of the year they would refuse 90% of Russian oil imports, in exchange for which the EU plans to purchase energy carriers in Asia and Arab countries, as well as in the United States, but it will take time to adjust to new logistics. Due to the artificially limited supply on the black gold market and the growing demand for raw materials in Europe, Brent Crude Oil quotes showed a rapid increase and stopped at around 122.00 this week, updating the high of March 24.

Now the trading instrument is correcting in anticipation of the OPEC+ meeting, which will discuss the possibility of adjusting the production of "black gold" against the backdrop of the continuation of a special military operation in Eastern Europe, initiated by the Russian authorities, as well as its consequences for the energy market. Participants are expected to continue to adhere to the current 432K barrels per day production recovery plan, despite the EU authorities' decision.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is ready to increase the production of "black gold" if it suddenly needs to compensate for the falling volumes from the Russian side. In turn, the United States offered Saudi Arabia to increase energy supplies to the EU and exclude Russia from the OPEC+ deal in exchange for unblocking arms supplies, but official Riyadh did not agree to take this step.

Summing up, one can conclude that if the increase in the rate of oil production by OPEC+ countries occurs according to a pre-approved plan, then prices will continue to rise in the future due to increased demand and insufficient supply. However, if a decision is made on an emergency adjustment in order to replace volumes of Russian oil, the instrument may head towards 100 in the long term.

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The long-term trend is upward. After updating the March 24 high, the price decreases and approaches the support level of 114.50, and if it is held by the "bulls", the growth will continue with the target at the May high. Otherwise, the correction will continue to the level of 107.15. The medium-term trend is upward. This week the target zone 2 (118.57–117.67) was broken out, and the next target is in the area of 127.57–126.67. Now the price is correcting and approaching the key trend support at 114.31–113.41, after reaching which new purchases can be considered with the first target at the high of the current week.

Resistance levels: 122, 129, 135 | Support levels: 114.5, 107.15, 101.9

https://i.ibb.co/7npYrrX/oil-2.png


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Re: Crude Oil

https://i.ibb.co/V352bmJ/oil-forum-1.png

On the daily chart, the upward wave C develops, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C has formed. Now, a downward correction is developing as the second wave 2 of (1) of C, within which the wave of the lower level a of 2 has formed, and the development of the wave b of 2 is ending.

If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 77.08 - 62.5. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 139.53.

https://i.ibb.co/6Z75KNT/oil.png


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Re: Crude Oil

https://i.ibb.co/qn88cLN/oil-froum-1.png

On the daily chart, the development of the first wave of the higher level 1 of (1) of C ended, and a downward correction develops as the second wave 2 of (1) of C. Now, the wave of the lower level a of 2 is developing, within which the wave (i) of a has formed, and the correctional wave (ii) of a is ending.

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall within the wave (iii) of a to the levels of 82.30–67.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 131.17.

https://i.ibb.co/j882B0j/oil.png


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Re: Crude Oil

https://i.ibb.co/WpFb8th/oil-forum-1.png

Trading near local highs
During the Asian session, Crude Oil prices show flat dynamics, trading near the level of 118.5 and holding close to local highs from March 9.

The instrument is supported by an increase in energy demand with the beginning of the summer season in the US. Also, investors fear that a new EU sanctions package against the Russian economy, which includes a partial embargo on the supply of "black gold," may provoke a supply crisis in the market. Demand for hydrocarbons is also rising in China, where quarantine restrictions were eased in early June, and enterprises in Shanghai resumed their work.

Investors continue to evaluate the decision of OPEC+ members to increase production volumes to compensate for existing losses in supply chains after the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions against the background of the military conflict in Ukraine. Thus, in July, production will increase to 648K barrels per day instead of 432К barrels per day predicted by analysts, which is 0.7% of world demand. Market experts believe that the unpredictable decision of the cartel members is unlikely to significantly affect the dynamics of the instrument since, even now, the largest producers, excluding Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are working at their limit.

On Tuesday, the quotes were under pressure from the American Petroleum Institute (API) report on oil stocks in the country. For the week of June 3, the indicator increased by 1.845M barrels after falling by 1.181M barrels in the previous period. On Wednesday, traders are waiting for the publication of the final report on oil reserves from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA).

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On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately: the price range remains practically unchanged; however, it lets the "bulls" renew local highs. The MACD indicator grows, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Having reached its highs, Stochastic reversed into a horizontal plane, indicating that the instrument may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 119.1, 121, 123.30, 125 | Support levels: 115.79, 113.13, 110, 107.67

https://i.ibb.co/j3LTyjV/oil-2.png


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Re: Crude Oil

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Brent Crude Oil prices are holding near a 13-week high after China reported higher-than-expected exports in May, but new lockdown restrictions in Shanghai are holding back a faster gain.

For example, China's exports for May increased by 16.9% compared to last year, as the easing of restrictions related to the COVID-19 epidemic allowed some factories to restart. It was the fastest rise since January this year and more than doubled analysts' expectations of 8.0%. Imports also rose by 4.1% YoY, doubling the forecast of 2.0%. New social restrictions have been introduced in some areas of Shanghai. So, in Minhang, where about 2M people live, authorities asked residents to stay at home for two days to control the spread of the virus. At the moment, operational measures are being taken to avoid crowds and testing in places where cases of infection are recorded.

Meanwhile, in the US, there is an increase in commercial oil inventories, which casts doubt on further price increases. According to the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA), the figure rose by 2.025M barrels, despite the forecast for their decline by 1.917M. According to the World Bank report, oil prices added 350% in two years alone, showing a record increase in two years period since 1973. The upward dynamics continue against the background of the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine. Experts predicted that quotes would add up to 42% compared to the same period last year but already in 2023, the dynamics will correct, and there will be a decline of 8%, and in 2024 – by 13%.

Thus, we can conclude that if restrictions in China regarding COVID-19 weaken and the demand for gasoline and petroleum products grows due to the summer season, oil prices will continue to strengthen with an immediate target of 129.

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The long-term trend is upwards. This week, the price consolidated above 120, and the next target is 129, the breakout of which will allow the instrument to reach the area of 135. The key trend support is at 115.20. The RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone, but it still allows considering trades along with the current trend.

The medium-term trend is upwards. After the breakdown of the target zone 2 (118.57–117.67) last week, the growth target was zone 3 (127.57–126.67). Long positions may be opened on the correction from the key trend support 117.14–116.24.

Resistance levels: 129, 135 | Support levels: 122, 115.2

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OPEC's ability to increase production has been exhausted.
Yesterday, OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo said that the cartel was running out of opportunities to increase the production of "black gold." According to the official, the production capacities of the participating countries, except for two or three states, are at their peak, and in this situation, there are practically no opportunities to influence the rise in prices. Barkindo added that the market could expect even more turmoil as China recovers from a new wave of the coronavirus pandemic and boosts demand significantly. He also called for increased investment in the oil and gas sector, although the US authorities have previously called for a stop to financing fossil fuels, switching to renewable energy.

During the hearings of the US Committee on Foreign Affairs, US State Department Senior Energy Security Adviser Amos Hochstein expressed concern that India had increased its purchases of Russian oil from 100K barrels per day to 800K and urged official New Delhi to curb this trend, despite strong dependence on supplies. One of the main reasons for the observed dynamics is a significant discount for the Urals brand relative to the oil price for Brent Crude Oil. According to the official, if the country refuses to import resources from the Russian Federation, then there will be no other buyer for them, so these purchases will not look like a blow to European and American consumers who have already refused to cooperate with the Russian authorities under the sixth economic package sanctions.

Thus, there are almost no factors that can put pressure on the asset's quotes on the market now, in connection with which many experts spoke about the possibility of oil prices rising to 150 dollars or more by the end of 2022.

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After the breakout of the upper border of the Triangle pattern, the price works out a signal to open long positions. At the moment, indicator Alligator's EMA oscillation range is actively expanding upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming rising bars high in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 122.2, 130 | Support levels: 113.8, 97.5


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Crude Oil, decline on expectations of the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve
Previously, experts predicted that the US regulator would raise rates by 50 basis points at a meeting on Wednesday, but after the release of strong data on the consumer price index for May last Friday, more investors expect a change of 75 basis points, which puts pressure on stock positions and oil. Last month, the inflation in the US accelerated from 0.3% to 1.0%, which exceeded the average market forecasts of 0.7%. The value has renewed 40-year highs, reaching a new peak at 8.6% YoY, while in April, the growth was 8.3%.

Additional pressure on the oil quotes is exerted by reports that the chairman of the US Senate Finance Committee, Ron Wyden, plans to pass a law establishing a 21% income tax on excess profits of oil and gas companies with an annual income of more than 1B dollars, which analysts perceive as excessive in these conditions.

From an even stronger fall, the trading instrument is kept by reports that Libya has almost completely stopped oil production due to the political crisis in the east of the country. Market losses are estimated at 1.1M barrels per day, although last month's production averaged 1.2M barrels per day. Libyan Oil Minister Mohammed Aoun said that almost all fields are currently closed. In turn, the limitation of oil production leads to a lack of supply, which, against the backdrop of high demand, does not allow prices for Brent Crude Oil to fall below 120.

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The long-term trend is upwards. In early June, the support level of 120 was broken, around which the price is now correcting, and long positions with the target of around 129 may be opened here. The medium-term trend is with the target in zone 3 (127.57–126.67). Now the price is heading for a correction towards the area of the trend's key support at 117.63–116.76, after reaching which, long positions with the first target at the current week's high at 126.20 may be opened.

Resistance levels: 129, 135 | Support levels: 121, 115.2, 107.15

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Crude Oil, prices for "black gold" are slightly reduced
During the Asian session, Brent Crude Oil prices are traded in different directions, consolidating near 117.00. Yesterday, the instrument moderately declined in response to the publication of macroeconomic statistics on energy reserves, which slightly eased experts' fears regarding oil supply on the market.

In particular, the International Energy Agency (IEA) report indicated an increase in commercial oil reserves worldwide by 77M barrels in April compared to March. The positive dynamics were confirmed by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) statistics: as of June 10, the indicator rose by 2M barrels, while analysts expected it to decrease by 1.3M barrels. The overall level of oil production in the United States also increased by 100K barrels per day to a combined level of 12M barrels per day. The OPEC report reflects that demand from market participants remained around 3.4M barrels per day, amounting to 100.3M barrels per day. The cartel is confident that the resumption of scheduled air travel after the coronavirus pandemic and the elimination of disruptions in supply chains will maintain positive momentum.

In turn, quotes continue to be supported by the prospect of a decrease in oil supply on the market with a moderate increase in consumption. Thus, the export of resources from the Russian Federation is currently difficult since Western countries are actively introducing new blocking sanctions against the Russian economy in response to a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. Analysts note that the decline in the production of raw materials in Russia will be compensated by the growth in production in the Middle East and the United States, but only partially.

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On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse into a horizontal plane: the price range remains practically unchanged, reflecting the flat nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is falling, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows similar dynamics, approaching its lows and indicating that the instrument may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 120, 123.24, 125.85, 128.6 | Support levels: 116, 114.09, 112, 109

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Crude Oil - The price may fall

If the assumption is correct, Brent Crude Oil price will fall within the wave c of 2 to the levels of 77.08 – 62.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 139.53.

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