Topic: New Zealand Unemployment Rate May 4 2021
What does the data mean to the market?
The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change which gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.
I saw some movement before the delivery of the news which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early but I held my nerve this time and it paid off.
Overall the price action was excellent.
See Chart here:
I will use forecasts of:
Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.3
Unemployment Rate 4.9
Today's trade plan
If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.
Please note that the standard deviation on today's forecast range is significantly smaller than the last quarterly release, so I would expect the data to cause a better market reaction this time.
New Zealand is the first country to emerge from Covid lock downs and hopefully, news events will continue to work. Unfortunately, the RBNZ is currently neutral regarding its stance on which way interest rates might go in the future. Which doesn't help to achieve those large rapid moves I used to see back before Covid came around.
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.