CryptoNews

- Editor-in-chief and founding family member of Forbes business publication Steve Forbes called bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies a protective tool against unstable economic policies of states. In his opinion, cryptocurrencies have become a technologically advanced “cry for help.” They become relevant when governments resort to handing out free loans and quantitative easing.
At the same time, Forbes noted a number of disadvantages of bitcoin. He believes that limiting emissions to 21 million BTC is Satoshi Nakamoto’s erroneous move, because money is needed to simplify trade and not control the economy.

- Kenya and Brazil have taken a leading position in terms of the level of public interest in bitcoin. This is evidenced by data from the analytical portal Blockchaincenter. The researchers compared the data from Google Trends and concluded that 94.7% of all cryptocurrency-related requests in Kenya relate specifically to bitcoin. In Brazil, the figure is as high as 92.6%. Poland closes the top ten with an indicator of 86.4%.
South America became the most interested continent in the leading cryptocurrency. On average, bitcoin accounts for 80.8% of all cryptocurrency related requests in Google. Ethereum is significantly inferior with an indicator of 13.7%, the top three is closed by ripple - 7.7%.

- Researchers of the analytical service Glassnode noticed a sharp increase in the number of large bitcoin investors. The number of such “whales” has been steadily increasing since the beginning of last year and is now approaching the level recorded at the end of 2017, when the BTC price was approaching $20,000. In the expert environment, “whales” are holders of wallets with 1000 or more coins, which at any moment can provoke both strong growth and a collapse of quotes.

- Protocol Podcast host Eric Savix lost all his savings in BTC, which he saved for seven years to buy an apartment. On June 10, Savix downloaded a fake Google Chrome extension for storing cryptocurrencies, Keep Key. He was not embarrassed by the requirement of the program to introduce a seed phrase from the wallet. As a result, the hackers transferred all Savix's 12 BTC (about $120,000 at the time of the theft) to their account.
The concerned community managed to collect a sixth of the stolen within one day. However, some Twitter users questioned Savix' honesty after spotting this name in the Panama Papers. This is the name given to confidential documents of the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca, leaked in 2015 and launched a large-scale investigation into the shadowy activities of 140 heads of state and prominent politicians, as well as 240 thousand offshore companies from 200 countries.

- Nuriel Roubini, an economist and well-known critic of bitcoin, expressed confidence that the cryptocurrency market is full of fraudulent schemes. Commenting on the story of Protocol Podcast host Eric Savix about the loss of 12 BTC due to a phishing scheme, Rubini exclaimed: “This is only one of the 1000 daily scams in the world of bitcoin and shitcoins. There is zero security in the world of shitcoins! If someone steals my credit card or bank account details, I will get a 100% refund after a one-minute phone call. Traditional financial systems have 100% protection! “. For reference: CipherTrace estimates that in the first five months, the total amount of crypto assets seized by fraudsters was $1.4 billion.

- Less than three years ago, Estonia opened its doors to cryptocurrency industry participants. And now, after instead of a fintech hub, this Baltic country almost became a money laundering hub, the Estonian financial authorities revoked licenses from more than 500 of 1,400 crypto companies and substantially tightened the requirements for issuing new licenses. Experts have already called such a sharp change of course a “crypto-sweep”.

- American Knoxville joined the list of cities that were attacked by hackers who demanded a ransom in crypto assets. The introduction of the virus took place on June 10-11 and led to the disconnection of city information systems, including the city hall and the court, and the city information portal also stopped working. The FBI is currently investigating, but the identity of the hackers who control the ransomware virus has not yet been established.
On the other side of the planet, in South Korea, law enforcement has shut down another cryptocurrency pyramid called “ETH Wallet.” As in other similar cases, attackers lured victims with promises of high incomes. Police estimate the number of victims at between 500 and 20,000, and the amount of stolen money at $100 million. Three organizers of the fraudulent scheme have already been charged, and about a hundred people are still under investigation.

- Bearish sentiment this year can positively affect the growth of the first cryptocurrency in 2021. This was stated by a well-known trader Tone Vays in a live broadcast on the ForkLog YouTube channel. According to him, the absence of To the Moon should make people angry enough to start selling bitcoin. To the Moon means the continuous growth of the cryptocurrency rate in a geometrical progression. It is the lack of such growth that will trigger its rapid rise in the future. According to the analyst, "for bitcoin to rise, people must hate it."
"Until the price breaks through $10,000, I will expect the price to fall," Weiss concluded his interview. – If we fall by the end of the summer, I think it will be somewhere around $7,000. But the first cryptocurrency will not fall below $6,000."

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CryptoNews

- Deutsche Bank spoke about the possible future of bitcoin. According to the experts of this regulator, the situation with cryptocurrencies may change significantly in the next 10 years, while there are two scenarios. The first is, digital assets will become even more popular against the backdrop of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the financial industry and many other external factors. And the second one is apocalyptic, in which the electronics on the planet at some point will seriously suffer from solar flares, which makes the use of bitcoin simply impossible, because, unlike fiat money, it cannot be used without additional devices and energy consumption.

- 20 thousand outlets in the USA began to accept bitcoin when paying for goods through LibertyX terminals. Until July 31, the company will not charge a transaction fee, later its amount will be slightly less than $5 for each BTC coin. Also, it will be possible to pay for purchases directly from a cryptocurrency wallet in many chain stores. The head of LibertyX, Chris Im, said that the ability to make payments with digital assets will also appear in smaller retail outlets in the future. In addition, you can now buy cryptocurrencies worth up to $500 at LibertyX ATMs. This digital asset rollout program has been called “Bitcoin for Every Quarter”.

- The role of millennials in the future of the cryptocurrency industry is noted by many experts. At the end of last year, the American brokerage company Charles Schwab said that this age group invests in bitcoin more often than in Netflix and Microsoft. Over the past three years, the younger generation has come to trust bitcoin more than global banks like Wells Fargo, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. This is evidenced by a study conducted by Tokenist in 17 countries involving 4,852 respondents between the ages of 18 and 65. According to the results, 51% of the millennials preferred the leading cryptocurrency. Among older generations, this figure was lower, due to which the overall level of confidence in bitcoin was 47%, which is 29% more than in 2017. 24% of millennials consider bitcoin a soap bubble, among the age group of 65 this indicator reached 50%. At the same time, more than 45% of respondents prefer BTC to traditional assets: securities, real estate and gold. 78% of millennials are familiar with bitcoin, 14% have owned it.

- According to the Cointelegraph agency, a resident of Spain received the rights to the logo and name of bitcoin in the Patent and Trademark Office of this country. It was a local businessman engaged in cryptocurrency exchange. He refused to disclose his identity to reporters but spoke about the reasons for this step. "I am not a fake Satoshi; I just registered the rights to own and use the logo and the word. And if someone uses them incorrectly, I will stand up for them," the entrepreneur said, adding that he does not intend to prevent others from working with bitcoin, provided that they are honest people, and not scammers.
Recall that the Bitcoin trademark was registered in Russia in April 2016. In 2018, the British company A.B.C.IPHoldings South West LLC. acquired the rights to the same brand   - In May 2019, the copyright for this coin was registered by a Chinese woman, Wei Liu, and Craig Wright, who calls himself the Creator of the main cryptocurrency, since August 2017, has filed more than 150 patent applications with various authorities mentioning cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

- The head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, Mike Novogratz, predicted the timing of a new bitcoin rally in an interview with CoinDesk. The billionaire is convinced that the arrival of major players is necessary for a new round in the development of the industry and admitted that he was in a hurry trying to attract institutions to the digital asset market three years ago. However, now, in his opinion, an excellent moment has come for a new attempt: “It took more time than expected, but intuition tells me that in the next 6 to 24 months we will have great [institutional] progress.” The businessman called the measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to support the economy as another factor influencing the price of bitcoin: “Within the week after the crisis began, the Fed printed more dollars than for the entire period 2008-2009. My mother used to tell me that money doesn't grow on trees, but that's what's happening right now.

- The PayPal payment system plans to implement the possibility of buying and selling cryptocurrencies for 325 million of its users. At the moment, this payment system can only be used as a way to withdraw money from crypto exchanges. An informed source said that the launch of the service could take place within the next three months: “As far as I understand, they intend to allow buying and selling cryptocurrency directly in PayPal and Venmo. There will be some functionality of the built-in wallet so that it can be stored.” Coinbase and Bitstamp are mentioned as likely partners of PayPal, and it is not yet known which cryptocurrencies can be added to the service.

- A small independent film company Substantial Films is making a film "Decrypted" about the cryptocurrency and the mysterious bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. According to the description, it will be "a scandalous and provocative black comedy about a team of the US National Security Agency that kidnaps Satoshi Nakamoto and tries to get information from him necessary to destroy cryptocurrencies." The film is scheduled for release later this year.

- Experts of the US analytical company Weiss Ratings have come to the conclusion that the main cryptocurrency will rise to $180,000. The company believes that the entry of billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones into the BTC futures market shows that institutions are paying increasing attention to cryptocurrency markets. This is because bitcoin has become "one of the safe haven assets with the greatest profit potential," especially since central banks print fiat money non-stop. According to Weiss Ratings experts, bitcoin is much better than gold in terms of security, mobility and utility, and “if bitcoin takes at least a third of gold's share, it will trade about $180,000, that is about 20 times the current levels.”

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Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 29 - July 03, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. COVID-19 continues its second attack on the United States. A new spike in incidence is observed in at least seven states. And in the three most populous states, the number of infected people continues to grow at a record pace, with a spike in deaths due in about two weeks. Authorities in Houston (Texas) announced that intensive care units in hospitals are nearly overcrowded. It is clear that this new outbreak is related to the lifting of the quarantine at the end of May. And no matter how much the White House and the governors would not like to return to strict quarantine again, it is possible that they still have to do this.
Against this background, risk sentiment began to weaken, the stock market and government bond yields went down, and the dollar, now entrenched in the status of the main protective currency, on the contrary, went up. Investors believe in the dollar largely thanks to the policy of President Trump, who, for the sake of supporting his own economy, is again starting to increase pressure on other countries, threatening them with another portion of trade tariffs. Not only China, but also the EU, Great Britain and Canada have already come under attack. 
And if at the beginning of the week the dollar slightly lost to the European currency, it managed to win back a significant part of the losses since Tuesday June 23. As a result of this counterattack, theEUR / USD pair returned to the strong support / resistance zone 1.1240, around which it fluctuated as early as March 2019, and completed the five-day period at 1.1225;

- GBP/USD. If the distance, which passed in the second half of the week EUR/USD pair was about 160 points, the flight down of the British pound was more rapid: 230 points. Even the 60% growth in the Markit index of business activity in the service sector did not help the pound, which is not surprising given the serious concern of the markets with Brexit problems. However, summing up the week, it is necessary to take into account the growth of the pair from June 22 to 24, one of the reasons of which was the  tapering by the Fed of swap lines central banks, opened to maintain liquidity back in March. Given this growth, the final result of the week is close to zero: starting from 1.2350, the pair finished at 1.2335, with a minimum margin of 15 points in favor of the dollar;

- USD/JPY. Most analysts (60%), with almost full support for the indicators, expected this pair to decline to the horizon of 106.00, and this forecast turned out to be 100% correct: the pair reached the local bottom at 106.05 on Tuesday June 23. After that, it turned around and rose to the height of 107.45, which was followed by a correction and a final chord at 107.20, also with a slight advantage of 35 points in favor of the dollar;

– cryptocurrencies. Experts from the cybersecurity company ClearSky calculated that a group of hackers called CryptoCore (also known as Leery Turtle) have stolen more than $200 million over the past couple of years, attacking crypto exchanges and cracking crypto wallets. It should be noted that security is actually a weak point of many cryptocurrency exchanges, which cannot be said about the NordFX brokerage company. Over more than 10 years of its work, its experts have gained vast experience in repelling hacker attacks, which, coupled with the most modern technological support, allows us to talk about the maximum protection of customer funds. There hasn't been a single hack at NordFX since 2008, and this applies to customer accounts in both USD and BTC and ETH.
In addition to crime news, the Deutsche Bank brought us troubling news. Its experts, predicting the future of cryptocurrencies, voiced, among others, one completely apocalyptic scenario. According to them, electronics on the planet will at some point be seriously affected by outbreaks in the Sun, causing bitcoin to simply disappear as, unlike fiat money, it cannot to be used without additional appliances and energy consumption.
Meanwhile, oblivious to solar activity, the main cryptocurrency continues to move in the range of $9,000-10,000 for the sixth week in a row. Another attempt to break through the sign $ 10,000 resistance ended in failure on Monday June 22, after which the initiative passed into the hands of the bears, who dropped quotes to the lower border of the channel.
According to some analysts, the reason for this fall is the early expiration of $1 billion in bitcoin options. Fears of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which are putting more and more pressure on the market, cannot be ruled out either. In the eyes of many investors, bitcoin was, is, and will still for a long time remain the riskiest asset they will get rid of in the first place. While investors wait for clearer signals from traditional markets, the crypto market has metered, reminding a cocked trigger. But it is not clear which way the bullet will go.
Despite taking off to $276 billion on June 24, the crypto market's total capitalization was virtually unchanged in seven days: $263 billion on June 26 versus $266 billion a week ago. The same applies to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index which is at 40 (39 seven days earlier).
As for the main altcoins, in general, fluctuations in their quotes duplicate the movements of the main cryptocurrency. However, if the volatility of the BTC/USD pair in June was about 13%, litecoin and ripple show a greater tendency to fall: LTC/USD - 18%, XRP/USD - 17%. Ethereum (ETH/USD), on the contrary, was more stable, and the width of its side channel did not exceed 13% of the June 02 high.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The closer the November U.S. election, the higher the activity of President Trump and his entourage. The White House is considering imposing duties on goods from the EU and the UK worth more than $3bn, and 20 major Chinese companies have been blacklisted by the Pentagon on suspicion of links to the PRC military. On the other hand, in Europe, everything is going downhill. ECB officials predict a further slowdown in economic growth and weak consumer demand. According to ECB board member Yves Mersch, “the prospects for Eurozone economic recovery are shrouded in uncertainty” and, as a result, long-term scenarios may prove too optimistic. All this, coupled with a decrease in risk appetites due to the second wave of COVID-19, should lead to further growth in the dollar. Such sentiments are particularly visible in monthly and medium-term forecasts.
Thus, as for the behavior of the pair in the coming week, the opinions of analysts were divided almost equally: 30% voted for the growth of the pair, 40% - for its fall and 30% - for the side trend. At the same time, the main levels of support and resistance are the boundaries of the channel that it has moved the last two weeks - 1.1170 and 1.1350.
When moving to the forecast for July, the number of supporters of the dollar increases to 65%. In their opinion, the pair will first drop to 1.1100, then to 1.1000, and will grope the local bottom another 100 points lower. And here we must take into account that very often such forecasts are implemented within the first two weeks of the month.
The goals of the bulls are 1.1350, followed by the 09 June high at 1.1425 and finally the height of 1.1500.
Among the events that should be paid attention in the coming week are data on the consumer market in Germany and the EU, which will be published on Monday, June 29 and Tuesday, June 30, respectively. The statements of US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled for June 30, are also of undoubted interest to the markets. As for the second half of the week, we are expecting a whole series of data on business activity and labour market in Germany and the US, including such an important indicator as NFP - the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector;

- GBP/USD. Next week, with regard to the British pound, important news risks await us: negotiations with the EU on the transition period in the framework of Brexit will resume. In their expectation, the experts' votes are distributed almost the same as in the case of EUR/USD: 35% vote for the pair's growth, 35% – for its fall, and 30% – for a sideways trend.
Technical analysis gives a slightly different picture. Almost 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are painted red. Red also dominates among the oscillators, however 15% of them give signals about the pair being oversold, which may indicate a trend reversal up. The pair's northward reversal and return to the June 10 high at 1.2810 is also indicated by graphical analysis. Support levels are 1.2245, 1.2160 and 1.2070, resistance - 1.2470, 1.2545 and 1.2650;

- USD/JPY. If 75% on the H4 trend indicators point to the north, as much look to the south on D1. Green also dominates among the oscillators on H4, but on D1 there is a complete mess of green, red and neutral gray colors.
Most of the analysts are bearish: 65% of them believe that with a full-scale decline in interest in risky assets, investors will again want to withdraw their capital to such a safe haven like the yen. As a result, the pair will test the 106.00 level again. The nearest support is in the 106.75 zone.
35% of experts vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, expecting its rise to the 108.00 zone. The nearest resistance is located in zone 107.45-107.60;

– cryptocurrencies. Downward trends in the crypto market are once again correlated with the dynamics of stock exchanges.  And according to a number of experts, the sell-off of risk assets caused by the expectation of the second wave of coronavirus will negatively affect cryptocurrencies as well. Although, as usual, there are optimists. For example, Dan Tapeiro, co-founder of Gold Bullion International, believes that some of the anti-crisis $4.6 trillion that the US Federal Reserve has distributed over the past 3 months in the form of assistance can be used to buy bitcoin.
Since the BTC halving on May 11, despite all expectations, it has not been able to overcome the $10,000 bar. This suggests that the famous trader and analyst Tone vays was right when he said that "for bitcoin to rise, people must start to hate it." It is possible that this is what big speculators are trying to achieve – having pinched the pair in the range of $9,000-10,000, they are waiting for small investors, who have not seen the take-off, to start mass sales of bitcoin, which will allow the "whales" to buy coins with a significant discount and fully take over the market. And then...
..Then they will send the main crypto asset to new, space heights. For example, experts at Weiss Ratings, an analytical company from the USA, believe that the main cryptocurrency will rise in price to $ 180,000. In terms of security, mobility and utility, Bitcoin is much better than gold, and if it takes at least a third of gold's share, it will trade at about 20 times higher than current levels, they believe.
Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, is also waiting for a new bitcoin rally. In an interview with CoinDesk, the billionaire admitted that he was in a hurry trying to attract institutionalists to the digital asset market three years ago. However, now, in his opinion, an excellent moment has come for a new attempt: "It took longer than expected, but intuition tells me that in the period from 6 to 24 months we will have great [institutional] progress".
The influence of institutional investors in this case is beyond doubt. According to Chainalysis estimates, only 3.5 million BTC coins are used for trading now. (The rest of the 18.6 million are either frozen as long-term investments or lost altogether). And here 85% of these 3.5 million belong to “whales”, which shape market trends on their own.
Now about the forecast for the coming week. From the technical analysis side, important support in the form of a 50-day moving average passes through the $9,000 level. And if the pair breaks this level, we can expect it in the zone of $ 8,500-8,800. This development is expected by 30% of analysts. Another 25% believe the 6-week side trend will last further, keeping the pair in the $9,000-10,000 range. And the remaining 45% of experts do not lose hope of seeing bitcoin above the psychological level of $10,000.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 06 - 10, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD.  The latest US employment data is not just optimistic, but over-optimistic: approximately 4.8 million people returned to work in June. The unemployment rate fell from 13.3% to 11.1% - the best increase in employment outside the agricultural sector since records began in 1939.
So what? Nothing! The market has almost stopped responding to macroeconomic indicators as it has new, outperforming indicators: the number of newly infected COVID-19 and the number of dead from this virus. And here the United States far surpassed both Europe and China. As a result, the American economy is in a vicious circle: the more employment, the more newly opened businesses, the more people went to work, began to visit restaurants, travel by bus and subway, the more ... newly infected with the coronavirus. The number of such only on Thursday July 2 was 57 thousand - an increase of almost twice as much as at its peak in April.
Things are significantly better in China and Europe, and so they can relaunch their economies more actively. The United States, on the contrary, will be forced to slow down this process. Positive statistics for July may be the peak, followed by a new fall. But the US will need, according to the congressional Budget office, at least ten years in order to return to the level of unemployment that was before the pandemic (3.5%). 
In the absence of other drivers for decision-making, the market is at a crossroads, expecting how the situation with COVID-19 will develop further and what measures the US leadership can take to deal with the new wave of the pandemic. This inability of investors to take any direction was reflected in expert forecasts. Recall that last week their opinions were divided almost equally: 30% voted for the pair's growth, 40% for its fall and 30% for the side trend. At the same time, the boundaries of the channel on which it moved the whole second half of June — 1.1170 and 1.1350 were named as the main levels of support and resistance. In reality, volatility was even lower, the pair did not go beyond 1.1185-1.1300, and ended the week at 1.1245 - almost at the same Pivot Point 1.1240 along which it moved back in March 2019;

- GBP/USD. Was it a temporary correction or a reversal of the June 20-day downtrend? Negotiations on the post-Brexit period are, according to a number of experts, going well and it looks like the EU is ready to make concessions on the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. This inspires investors with a certain optimism about the future of the British currency, which is reflected in its quotes: the pound is growing in relation to the euro and the dollar. The GBP/USD pair found a local bottom at 1.2250 on Monday, June 29, after which it steadily went up, reaching a high of 1.2530 on Thursday, July 2. The final chord sounded at around 1.2480, which allowed the pound to win back 145 points from the American currency in a week;

- USD/JPY. Japan's State Pension Fund (GPIF), the world's largest management company in this sphere, announced record losses for the first quarter of 2020, which amounted to ?17.7 trillion ($165) billion). The structure of its losses allows us to draw some analytical conclusions. So, GPIF lost 22% (?10.2 trillion) on investments in shares of foreign companies, 18% (?7.4 trillion) on investments in the Japanese stock market and only 0.5% (?185 billion) on investments in Japanese government securities. Due of the pandemic, the American S&P500 index fell by 20%, the Japanese Topix slightly less — by 18%, the yield of ten-year US Treasuries over this period fell by 125 basis points, and here the yield of similar government securities in Japan increased by 3 bps. The yen also strengthened in the first quarter – by 1% against the dollar, and by 3% against the Euro. These figures are quite eloquent about which Japanese assets can be considered a real haven.
As for the behavior of the pair USD/JPY in the past week, there were no special events: the yen and the dollar continue to struggle with varying success for the funds of investors who do not want to risk, as a result, the pair continues its movement along the Pivot Point in the 107.50 zone. That's where it ended the trading session;     

– cryptocurrencies. According to estimates by British investment firm Buy Shares, bitcoin has bypassed the world's leading indices by an average of 70 times over the past five years. During this period, investments in the main cryptocurrency could bring more than 3400% profit. At the same time, the NASDAQ index rose 96 percent. The S&P500 index, whose basket includes 505 selected companies traded on US exchanges, showed even lower returns – 46%. The Dow Jones industrial average has a similar result – 42%. The worst result from the above was shown by the leading index of the British Stock Exchange FTSE100 - from June 2015 to the present day, its quotes fell by almost 7%.
However, past merits of bitcoin are not at all a guarantee of merits in the present and future. The main cryptocurrency continues to move in the narrow range of $9,000-10,000 for the seventh week in a row. Such sideways trends have repeatedly ended in a collapse. So, bitcoin dangerously pressed to the lower boundary of the channel all last week, not rising above the horizon $9,285. Moreover, the bears made several breakout attempts, during which the price of BTC fell to the $8,840 mark, which gave investors a lot of unpleasant feelings. Such dynamics cannot please the miners working after the May halving at a loss either.
Despite the above figures of staggering bitcoin returns, analysts are increasingly talking about the correlation of this cryptocurrency with the stock market. Against the backdrop of alarming expectations of a new wave of a pandemic in the United States, stock indices moved to the red zone at the end of the week: investor risk appetites are disappearing. Accordingly, their interest in bitcoin is falling. Crypto market capitalization is virtually unchanged: $266 billion on June 19, $263 billion on June 26, $260 billion on July 03. (Note that the crypto market showed the same volumes exactly two years ago, in June-July 2018). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is also behaving sluggishly: its arrow is at 41 (39 on June 19 and 40 on June 26).
Now about the altcoins. The total number of all kinds of crypto coins today is a gigantic figure, 5687. Bitcoin dominates the market, covering 64.4% of its volume. It is followed by Ethereum (ETH) with 9.70%. Demand for this coin is fueled by the promises of its creator, Vitalik Buterin, to increase network bandwidth to 100K transactions per second. The next most popular bypassing the Ripple turned out to be the Tether stablecoin (USDT), which shows positive dynamics in moments difficult for the cryptocurrency market. The capitalization of the USDT at the end of the past week was 3.55%, while the capitalization of the Ripple (XRP) was only 3.04%.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. No particularly important economic events are expected in the coming week. The number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, as well as some data on ISM business activity in the services sector in this country, and industrial production in Germany will become known. However, most likely, they will not be able to shake the market much. Due to the fact that all interest rates are about zero, the spreads of bond yields have almost nothing to react to either. And, as has already been said, the reaction of investors to the news about COVID-19 will most likely be affecting the behavior of the EUR/USD pair.
There is another interesting factor that can affect the dollar, it is the results of the US presidential election, which will determine the further economic policy of the country. But it is still four months away, and a serious recovery should be expected only when autumn starts. Although Donald Trump is known for his ability to present the most unexpected surprises at any moment. However, this "parameter" is almost impossible to predict.
It is not worth focusing on the indicator readings with this behavior of the EUR/USD pair in recent weeks, and it is almost impossible, since their main color on both H4 and D1 has become neutral gray. Graphical analysis refuses any constructions as well. But among analysts, the belief in the dollar still dominates. So, 45% of them voted for its growth and reduction of the EUR/USD pair, first to the lower border of the channel 1.1170, and in case of its breakdown - another 70-100 points below. 25% of experts expect to see the pair at a height of 1.1400, and the remaining 30% predict the continuation of its consolidation in the region of Pivot Point 1.1240;

- GBP/USD. So, let's repeat the question asked in the first part of the review: "Was it a temporary correction or a reversal of the June downtrend?» Graphical analysis on H4 confidently answers: “A reversal” and draws a further rise of the pair to the high of June 10 at 1.2810. On D1, the forecast is somewhat different - first, a decline to support 1.2245, then a return to the level of 1.2480.
The vast majority of trend indicators (90%) and oscillators (85%) on H4 are painted green. On D1 there is no such solidarity: here priority is given to gray neutral, and 15% of oscillators signal the pair is overbought.
As for analysts, they will first of all wait for the results of the next round of negotiations on the terms of the UK's exit from the EU. In the meantime, 30% of them believe that the pair will move within the lateral corridor 1.2245-1.2680, in the central zone of which it completed the previous week. Another 20% expect it to rise to a height of 1.2810, and 50% of experts expect the pair to decline to support 1.2160, and then 100 points lower;

- USD/JPY. Here, the expert votes were distributed as follows: for the pair’s growth - 40%, for its fall - 40%, for the sideways trend - 20%. On H4, the indicator readings are indistinct, and the only reference point can be their readings on D1. Among the trend indicators on this timeframe, 70% point to the north, and 85% among the oscillators. Support levels are 107.30, 106.60 and the lower border of the side channel is 106.00. Resistance levels are 108.10, 109.30 and 109.85;

– cryptocurrencies. The gurus of this market, as usual, raise their heads to the stars, predicting bitcoin's cosmic takeoff. The June issue of Crypto Research Report presents a forecast that the price of BTC could approach $400,000 in the next ten years. Top altcoins, Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Stellar (XLM) will also significantly increase the price. “We believe bitcoin is at the very beginning of its acceptance curve,” the report said. “The $7,200 price at the end of 2019 indicates that BTC is present at less than 0.44% of all of $212 trillion markets. If this penetration reaches 10%, its cost should be almost $400,000.” This will mean an increase in the price of BTC by 2030 by more than 4000%. ETH, LTC and BCH in this scenario also look extremely optimistic, showing gains of 1600%, 5000% and 5400%. The largest growth should be shown by XLM, over 11,000% (from $0.07 to $7.81).
An even higher cost of Bitcoin is predicted by the TV presenter and founder of Bitcoin Capital, Max Kaiser. Recall that he began to promote this cryptocurrency when it cost only $1, and now Kaiser suggested that the price for a coin could reach $500,000. However, this requires “just a little thing” - the US mining war with Iran and Venezuela for hashrate. According to the TV presenter's calculations, Iran controls 3% of the world's hashrate, and Venezuela could soon gain control of 3 -5% of the hashrate, forcing the US into the race for mining, and will lead to an increase in the price of the main cryptocurrency.
However, the near future does not look as rosy as Max Kaiser would like. We have already said that in the eyes of large institutional investors, bitcoin was, is, and will remain for a long time a risky asset, following such stock indexes as the S&P500. And in the near future, according to analysts at JP Morgan, pension funds can liquidate their assets in shares worth $ 175 billion, which will work like a trigger, causing a wave of sales in the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
None of the experts sees the BTC/USD pair above the $9,000 mark in the coming week. 40% of experts expect a continuation of its sideways trend in the range of $ 9,000-10,000. Most analysts (60%) believe that the pair will fall into the $ 8,000-9,000 level.         
In the transition to the medium-term forecast, the number of bulls’ supporters rises to 55 -60%. So, for example, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone thinks the price of BTC could rise to $13,000, and even close to the critical $20,000 mark by the end of the year. After that, according to the expectations of many experts, there will be a massive closure of long positions and an impressive rollback of the pair down.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 13 - 17, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The dollar is slowly weakening, the pair moved above Pivot Point 1.1240 last week, but is still within the five-week channel 1.1170-1.1350. As expected by 25% of experts, the bulls made an attempt to reach the level of 1.1400, but their attack  choked quickly, and, turning at the height of 1.1370, the pair went down again, ending the five-day period in the 1.1300 zone.
The pressure on the American currency is explained by the improvement in the economic situation in a number of countries, including the EU. Enterprises have started working there, demand is recovering, buyers are returning to stores, unlike the United States, where even Fed officials doubt the ability of the economy to recover quickly. Thus, FOMC members Rosengren and Barkin noted that, having fulfilled the old orders, the industry has so far not received new ones. And this could lead to further printing of dollars and an increase in the quantitative easing (QE) program.
All this comes amid a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. On Wednesday, July 08, a new peak of infections was reached in the United States, 60 thousand people. The number of deaths doubled compared with average levels, reaching 1000 per day, which is a significant reason for the growth of pessimism among market participants.
The euro, on the contrary, feels better, thanks to the improvement of the epidemiological situation and the competent monetary and fiscal policy of the EU. Support for Europe is also provided by the rapidly strengthening yuan and, paradoxically, the US president Donald Trump. More precisely, his falling ratings, because of which he is now not up to the trade wars with China. And if Democrat Joe Biden becomes the new president, then Washington’s policy towards Beijing may change dramatically, which will lead to further growth of the Chinese and, as a consequence, European economies;

- GBP/USD. In the last issue of the forecast, we wondered whether the growth of the pound was considered a temporary correction or a serious turnaround in the trend. The vast majority of indicators, along with graphical analysis, predicted a further rise for the pair. A total of 50% of experts also spoke in favor of its northward movement, with 30% pointing to a resistance of 1.2680 as a limiter. And they were right: the week's high was recorded at 1.2670, followed by a slight bounce down and a finish at 1.2625.
The steady growth of the pound was facilitated by the widespread weakening of the dollar (the reasons are indicated above), as well as moderate optimism caused by the negotiations on the terms of the UK's exit from the EU;

— USD/JPY. Tokyo, like a number of US states, has also recorded a record rise in coronavirus cases. However, so far this is not very worrying for investors, especially since the data on actual orders for machine tools and equipment that became known this week turned out to be higher than forecast, which indicates some recovery in the Japanese economy.
Against the backdrop of a general weakening of the dollar, the yen was able to strengthen its position a bit: starting the week from 107.50, the pair sank to the horizon of 106.65 by Friday evening. The final chord of the week was set at 106.90;

– cryptocurrencies. If a few months ago, the main topic of discussion was the question of whether Bitcoin can be considered a safe haven asset, now the topic of correlation of the main cryptocurrency with the stock market is constantly being discussed. For example, the Skew portal calculated that the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P500 index has now reached a historical high and currently its coefficient is approximately 66%. According to portal analysts, this means that Bitcoin has failed to become the antithesis of traditional finance and is moving in the same harness with them. Some even called bitcoin a "stock market startup."
There is a certain logic to this, since the main source of financing for both markets, both the stock and crypto, have been central banks in recent months, and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve, which pours the economy with a huge amount of cheap money.
But if you look at the graphs, a completely different picture emerges. Since the May halving of the BTC, the S&P500 index has risen by about 9%, the Nasdaq 100 - by 19%, but bitcoin, having failed to gain a foothold above $10,000, has gone down and now is consolidated in the $9,000-9,500 zone. So where's the correlation?
Unlike the stock market, bitcoin does not look like the most attractive asset at the moment, despite the entreaties of all kinds of crypto gurus. The main cryptocurrency continues to consume a huge amount of energy, and at its current price, it loses its supporters even among miners, whose revenue, according to Coindesk estimates, fell by 26% in June.
The cryptocurrency market capitalization has grown slightly over the past week, reaching $269 billion, and has only returned to where it was already on June 22 and 24. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index of Bitcoin has not changed at all for the week: its arrow is still at 41.
Such sluggishness of the main cryptocurrency plays into the hands of altcoins, especially since it has become much easier to buy them than a year or two ago. And if on May 15 the share of Bitcoin in the crypto market was 69.81%, now it has dropped to 62.79%. That is, in less than two months, the drop was 7.02% in absolute terms and 10% in relative terms.
Unlike BTC, many altcoins show impressive growth in July, and this can't help but attract investor attention. So, for example, the growth of Ethereum (ETH/USD) at the high of July 07 was about 10%, Ripple (XRP/USD) - 20%, Cardano - 34%. The record holders were Dogecoin, which added 79% after the viral video in TikTok and VeChain with 101%.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If earlier the main reference point for investors was US stock indices, now everything has changed. At the beginning of July, the ball is ruled not at all by the American S&P500, but by the Chinese Shanghai Composite. And if before the US economy grew much faster than the European economy, fueled by trade wars with China, things have now turned 180 degrees. Now the Fed no longer has the ability to raise the interest rate, making the dollar more attractive compared to rival currencies. A black cloud over the US economyis the prospect of massive non-repayment of loans, which are the main driver of its growth.
The dollar index has already returned to the area of June lows, losing 1.4% since early July, and this trend threatens to become long-term. According to some experts, the American currency may lose up to 20% of its value within a few years, losing most of what has been won since 2014. 
The average forecast of the 11 largest US banks indicates the EUR/USD pair at 1.1500 by the end of 2020. The only one to favor the strengthening of the dollar and lower the pair towards 1.0500 was investment bank Merrill Lynch. The reason for this forecast was the expectation of an expansion of the ECB's quantitative easing program by €400-600 billion.
If we talk about the forecast for the coming days, according to the Bloomberg Probability Calculator, based on the readings of the options market, the EUR/USD pair has a better chance to rise above 1.1500 than to fall below 1.1200. 80% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are also colored green. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. 

- GBP/USD. This week we expect: Monday, July 13, a statement by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, Tuesday - data on GDP, Wednesday - on the consumer market, and Thursday - on the UK labor market. Particular attention should be paid to Tuesday 14 July: according to preliminary forecasts, GDP growth in May may be 5% compared with a drop of 20.4% a month earlier. And if the forecast proves correct, it could serve to further strengthen the British currency.
Its growth is expected by 65% of experts, supported by 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on H4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. The main goal is the high of June 10, 1.2810, resistance is located at levels 1.2670 and 1.2740.
The opposite point of view is shared by 35% of analysts and the remaining oscillators, painted red on H4 and located in the overbought zone on D1.
It should be noted that when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the number of bear supporters among experts increases to 60%. The goal is to return the pair to the 1.2250-1.2400 zone;

- USD/JPY. Except for a single release on June 2-05, the pair has been moving in the lateral corridor 106.00-108.10 for 13 weeks, and, according to experts, is not going to leave its limits yet. At the same time, 70% of analysts vote for further strengthening of the yen and reduction of the pair to the lower border of the corridor, supported by graphical analysis on H4, and 30% are for its growth to the upper border. Among the oscillators on both H4 and D1, 80% are colored red, 95% among trend indicators.
In terms of important economic developments, the Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate on Wednesday, July 15, followed by a press conference of its management. However, surprises are most likely not worth waiting for, and the rate will remain negative at the level of -0.1%; 

– cryptocurrencies. The gurus of this market, as usual, compete in predictions regarding the rise of Bitcoin. So, a team of researchers from the Bloomberg Agency published a report, according to which the BTC/USD pair is expected to grow to $12,000 in the near future. Recall that among Bloomberg analysts, Mike McGlone is an ardent supporter of the largest cryptocurrency. He said back in June that a BTC jerk was imminent, with the result by the end of the year being to overcome the psychological milestone of $20,000.
- Anthoni Trenchev, Managing Partner of Nexo Credit Platform, gave an even more optimistic forecast. In his opinion, the value of bitcoin may exceed $50,000 in a few months. During an interview at the Block Down conference, Anthoni Trenchev said that the Nexo platform is growing tens of percent every month, new customers are constantly registering, both retail and institutional investors. And it is the increased participation of institutionals that can be the driver of growth. I admit, this is a bold statement, but fundamental factors and a change in attitude towards cryptocurrency make it real,” he concluded.
The fact that the attitude is changing is indisputable. According to the survey conducted by The Tokenist in 17 countries, 45% of respondents would prefer to have cryptocurrency instead of stocks, real estate and gold, and among millennials their share is 92%.
And now the results of another survey conducted on Twitter by popular cryptanalyst under the nickname PlanB with the aim of finding out what price BTC will be by the end of 2021. Of the nearly 27,000 surveyed, the majority (53%) were inclined to a high of $55,000. Nearly 30% of respondents named the $100,000 mark. And 17% do not exclude the option in which BTC will approach $ 300,000.
As for forecasts for the next week, the vast majority of analysts still consider the level of $9,000 as Pivot Point for the pair BTC/USD, citing the lower limit of fluctuations as $8,800, the upper - $9,700. And only 10 per cent believe the pair could drop to the $8,400 zone.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 20 - 24, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Relations between Beijing and Washington continue to heat up, the onslaught on coronavirus goes with great difficulty. 1.3 million people applied for primary unemployment benefits last week in the United States. For more than 17.3 million it was not the first time that they received them, which is 10 times higher than the pre-crisis norm. But at the same time, the risk appetite of investors does not fade away, the stock markets continue to grow. The S&P500 index has been climbing since March 23 and is already approaching February highs. The Nasdaq 100 has broken all records, jumping over the 10,650 mark.
Some analysts attribute this to low expectations of a post-crisis economic recovery. Investors had expected to see a complete disaster, but everything turned out to be not so bad, and 80% of the companies that reported showed very optimistic results, fueling the craving for risky assets.
Amid the growth of the stock market, the US dollar as a safe-haven currency is not so attractive. If in March its USDX index, showing the ratio of the dollar to a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK and CHF), was approaching at 103, it has now fallen below 95.
The dollar weakened against the European currency as well. Since Monday the EUR/USD has gone up steadily. However, it fell slightly short of the 1.1500 height predicted by the Bloomberg probability calculator, and stopped at 1.1450 on Wednesday, July 15. A day later, on July 16, following the ECB meeting, a slight rebound followed, but then the dollar retreated again, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.1435;

- GBP/USD. The absence of any significant drivers last week led to the British currency moving into a side trend, gradually consolidating in the 1.2560 zone. The pair failed to rise above the resistance of 1.2670 and fall below 1.2480, and as a result it placed the final chord almost in the middle of this corridor: at 1.2570;

— USD/JPY. The share of the Japanese currency in the USDX is not so large - only 13.6%, but some analysts consider the behavior of the USD/JPY pair to be a good indicator that determines the risk appetite of the markets. However, it should be noted that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the dollar has sharply strengthened its position as a protective asset, and it has become much more difficult to use this indicator. So last week it gave almost no signals. The pair demonstrated a classic sideways trend of two parabolic waves within 106.65-107.40, completing the trading session in the central part of this channel, at the horizon 107.00

– cryptocurrencies. News of the week: The night of July 16 saw the largest hacking attack in Twitter history. Crypto scammers hacked over 50 accounts, including profiles of Tesla and Space X CEO Elon Musk, Microsoft founder Bill Gates, Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos, musician Kanye West, former U.S. President Barack Obama, current Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, Wall Street legend billionaire Warren Buffett, as well as Bloomberg, Apple and Uber, official profiles of Bitcoin, Ripple, Cash App, Coindesk, Coinbase and Binance. There appeared reports of bitcoin giveaways on all of these pages. The scammers acted according to the classic scammer scheme: they asked to send them a certain amount of cryptocurrency, promising to return twice as much.
Although the real account owners and social network employees tried to delete these messages, they immediately appeared again. Even the two-factor authentication used for most of these accounts did not help.
This hacking attack is called by many a coordinated attack on bitcoin and Twitter, whose founder is a well-known supporter of the first cryptocurrency. However, bitcoin hardly noticed this event. The bears failed to break through the $9,000 level, and the BTC/USD pair rose to $9,180 by the evening of July 17.
The main cryptocurrency continues to consolidate after the May halving, the amplitude of fluctuations  did not exceed $ 350 last week, which, together with a decrease in trading volume to $15 billion, suggests that most players are not interested in the current levels: they see no reason to open either long or short positions. Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 41 for the third week in a row.
There is another interesting version. According to Paolo Ardoino, technical director of the Bitfinex crypto exchange, the reason for the decrease in the bitcoin volatility could be an increase in the number of companies engaged in high-frequency trading (HFT). So, according to him, 80-90% of trading volumes on Bitfinex for the BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs are generated precisely due to this type of transactions.   
Speaking of Ethereum. We have repeatedly written about the increase in investor interest in this altcoin, quotations of which have increased by almost 80% since the beginning of 2020. In addition, ??? shows more than twofold growth in the number of active wallets and is seriously ahead of BTC in this indicator. However, in order to catch up with the leading cryptocurrency, it is necessary that the capitalization of Ethereum grow by more than 6 times, which, of course, is hardly possible in the near future.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The ECB left the interest rate unchanged at 0.0% on July 16. A day earlier, the Bank of Japan remained in the same positions with a negative rate of -0.1%. Of course, when the pandemic comes to an end, inflation figures and which regulators will start raising their interest rates faster will play a decisive role. In the meantime, factors directly related to COVID-19 continue to play a crucial role on market sentiment.
Recall that a week ago the Bloomberg probability calculator, based on the options market readings, showed that the EUR/USD pair is more likely to rise above 1.1500 than fall below 1.1200. And now this forecast is supported by 80% of experts, pointing to the zone 1.1470-1.1530. Only 20% expect the pair to decline to the area of 1.1200-1.1300.
75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 are also painted green. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 expects the pair to grow up to 1.1500 as well, after which, according to its readings, it should return to the 1.1385 zone.
There is such a strategy - to trade “against the crowd”, that is, see where most traders are looking, and do the opposite. The current nearly unanimous “green” sentiment “for some reason” makes us remember it...

- GBP/USD. The vast majority of experts (70%) expect that market interest in protective assets such as the dollar will continue to weaken, and this will help the GBP/USD pair to continue its northward movement, which began on June 30. The main goal is the high of June 10, 1.2810, the resistance is located at levels 1.2670 and 1.2740. Bullish sentiment is supported by 60% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. As for their readings on the H4 timeframe, there is complete confusion caused by the sideways trend of the past week.
The remaining 30% of analysts support the pair's fall. Support levels: 1.2480, 1.2350 and 1.2250;

- USD/JPY. Except for a single release on June 02-05, the pair has been moving in the lateral corridor 106.00-108.10 for 14 weeks, and, according to experts, is not going to leave its limits yet. Moreover, this channel has narrowed even more in the last week, to just 75 points. In such conditions, opinions of experts were divided equally, 50% by 50%, but indicators on D1 give priority to the bears: 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators are painted red.
They are opposed by 15% of oscillators giving signals about the pair being oversold and graphical analysis on H4, confidently indicating the height of 108.10;

– cryptocurrencies. As usual, first about crypto guru predictions. - Max Keiser, the founder of Heisenberg Capital, told the world about the day when the first cryptocurrency will destroy all other coins, as well as which of these coins is "outright garbage". Bitcoin will rise to $100,000, the billionaire said during his Keiser Report show on the Russia Today channel. He noted that the first cryptocurrency will destroy all other projects this or next year, including the XRP token, which is, in his view, “outright garbage.” Keiser was sharply critical of the projects that received government subsidies from the US government during the crisis. This list includes 75 companies related to the field of blockchain and cryptocurrencies.
A more modest forecast was made by economic bestselling author Robert Kiyosaki, stating that the BTC/USD pair could reach $75,000 within the next three years.
But Weiss Crypto experts said that the cost of bitcoin will reach $70,000 by 2021. This can be indicated by the Stock-to-Flow model that the main cryptocurrency has chosen. It implies measuring the ratio of the value of an asset to its annual growth. Even if the coin quotes are almost unchanged, it remains promising for long-term investments.
According to the experts, if the Stock-to-Flow model is maintained, the value of bitcoin will approach the $50,000 mark by the end of this year. A slight downward correction is possible in January, which happens almost annually. A return to positive dynamics will follow, but it could end with an even stronger drawdown. If traders and investors survive the losses and do not arrange a massive sale of bitcoins, the value of the main coin will be about $70,000 by the middle of next year.
As for forecasts for the next week, the vast majority of analysts (55%) expect the pair to rise to the zone of $9,400-9,700. 10% are in favor of the pair's movement in the channel $9,000-9,400, and 45% think that it could drop to the $8,400-8,700 zone.
And at the end news for skeptics claiming bitcoin faces an imminent collapse to the zero mark. "This will never happen!" – this is what crypto entrepreneur Alistair Milne decided and placed a bid on the Bitfinex exchange to buy 18.52 million BTC ($174 billion at the current exchange rate) at the price of 1 cent for 1 coin. “I hereby confirm that bitcoin will never go down to zero,” Milne wrote. “I buy them all at $0.01.” Milne's application amounted to $185,000 - that's the money for which you can now buy only about 20 bitcoins.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for July 27 - 31, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The USA does not bring good news to the markets.  Escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington, rising jobless claims, and the ongoing COVID-19 offensive frighten investors, raising doubts about the imminent recovery of the American economy. The Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes turned red at the end of the week. However, their decline is not yet large enough to return investor interest to the dollar - the USD (DXY) index continues to fall and has already reached 94.4, which is even below the low of March 09, 2020.
In his speech on Thursday, July 23, the head of the Treasury Department, Steven Mnuchin drew attention to the weakening of the dollar and noted that the USA intends to protect its stability. However, the same Mnuchin said in the same speech that in addition to the fourth package of economic stimuli worth $ 1 trillion, which is currently being discussed in Congress, a fifth one may also be required. And this, coupled with cheap liquidity from the Fed and the possible emergence of a vaccine against the coronavirus, means that stock markets can turn north again, and the dollar can continue to move further south.
In the future, additional pressure on the US currency can be exerted by the issue of bonds worth €750 billion, which the European Commission plans to carry out. The lion's share of China's gold and foreign exchange reserves is denominated in dollars now. That is just over $3 trillion. And if Beijing, offended by the United States and PresidentTrump, decides to transfer some of them into Eurobonds, this will cause another dollar collapse, which has already yielded 465 points to the euro in July alone. Of these, 215 points were made over the past week. 
This development was expected by 80% of analysts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators. And this forecast turned out to be correct, except that the EUR/USD pair did not just break through the 1.1500 resistance, but reached the 1.1650 high, where it ended the five-day session;

- GBP/USD. The vast majority of experts (70%) expect that market interest in the dollar will continue to weaken, and this will help the GBP/USD pair to continue its northward movement, which began on June 30. The main target was the June 10 high of 1.2810, and this target was practically reached: the pair rose to the height of 1.2803 on the evening of Friday July 24. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.2790;

— USD/JPY. Apart from a single blowout on June 02-05, the pair has not left the 106.00-108.10 side corridor for 15 weeks. Moreover, this channel has narrowed even more in the last week, to just 75 points. In such conditions, the opinions of experts were divided equally: 50% for the growth of the pair, 50% for its fall. But 85% of the oscillators and 100% of the trend indicators on D1 pointed to the south and were right. The first attempt to break through the 106.65 support on Tuesday July 21 ended in failure. But the bears did not stop there, and the pair went for a new breakthrough on Thursday July 23, this time successful. It reached a local bottom at 105.65 by Friday evening, and the final chord of the week sounded in the 106.00 zone four hours later;

– cryptocurrencies. The past week did not bring anything extraordinary to the crypto market. There was both good news and bad news. Let us start with the crime.
Cisco Talos specialists discovered a botnet that infected about 5,000 computers for hidden mining of Monero. And this is good. However, it was not possible to identify the hacker, tentatively from Eastern Europe. And that's bad. And in China, hackers stole 10,000 bitcoin mining devices from one of Bitmain's farms, which is bad for Bitmain and probably good for the hackers.
As for more global news, we note the decision of the world giant Mastercard to open access to its payment system for cryptocurrency companies. The first Issuer of crypto cards will be the British startup Wirex, whose cards will allow you to store and spend both fiat and digital currencies, as well as convert one asset to another.
The names of lobbyists who prevent the US government from completely banning bitcoin have become known. They were named by the head of Grayscale Investments, Barry Silbert. “In terms of our relationship with Washington, we as an industry are experiencing the best period ever. Two groups - the Blockchain Association and the Coin Center - are bringing the benefits of this technology and asset class to policymakers. The catastrophic legal risk that could have existed earlier is now over,” he said addressing his investors.
And although the situation in the US has improved for bitcoin, it is still very far from ideal. According to experts from Fidelity and BitOoda, the US is gradually losing the mining market due to various legal restrictions. The US segment now accounts for only 14%, while China controls about 50% of the world's capacity. And according to expert Max Keyser, the hashrate of bitcoin may become a factor of serious confrontation between the United States, on the one hand, and Iran and Venezuela on the other in the near future, as they gradually take the American “piece of that pie”.
As for the behavior of the main cryptocurrency, the forecast that most experts had given last week also proved 100% correct. Recall that 55% of analysts supported the rise of the BTC/USD pair to the $9,400-9,700 zone. This is exactly what happened - starting from the $9,150 mark, it was striving up all seven days, which is most likely caused by the general weakening of the dollar. On Thursday, July 23, the pair peaked at $9.675, showing an increase of 5.7%, followed by a rebound, and it fell into the $9,500 zone.
It should be noted that bitcoin cannot overcome the resistance of $9,700 for 6 weeks in a row, although the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown to the mark of 53 (41 weeks ago). The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by $15 billion (to $ 286 billion). However, only half of this increase comes from BTC, the other 50 percent belongs to altcoins and stablecoins.
The only cryptocurrency with a daily trading volume of over a billion dollars was the stablecoin Tether (USDT), showing a daily turnover of $1.5 billion. The next stablecoin, USD Coin (USDC), shows only $32 million. For comparison, the real daily turnover of BTC, according to the provider Messari, is now about $430 million. Note that the market capitalization of Tether again exceeded $10 billion (for bitcoin, it is now equal to $175 billion).
Among the TOP-10 digital coins, Ethereum still demonstrates the maximum growth. It grew 210% heavier in 4 months and almost reached the pre-crisis highs of February 2020. The ETH/USD pair grew by about 20% just over the last seven days.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So, the fourth and fifth economic stimulus packages, liquidity from the Fed and the COVID-19 vaccine can seriously support the US stock markets. However, according to experts of Moody's Analytics, if the decision to stimulate the American economy is stuck in Congress for a long time, the risks of a double recession will seriously increase. In addition, until the pandemic recedes, unemployment will continue to be in two-digit numbers. Those factors could push the Nasdaq and S&P500 further down, which would return investor interest in the dollar as a protective asset.
It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are colored green at the end of the trading session, on July 24. Among the oscillators, there are fewer of them - 75%, while the remaining 25% signal that the EUR/USD pair is overbought. 45% of experts expect at least a downward correction, another 35% vote for the transition to a sideways trend, and 20% for further growth of the pair. Support levels¬ are 1.1500 and 1.1380, resistance levels are 1.1740 and 1.1815.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws a rebound on H4 from the resistance at 1.1650 and a decline to the horizon at 1.1565. On D1, naturally, the oscillation span is greater: first, a fall to 1.1500, and then an increase to 1.1740.
Of the important macroeconomic events next week, they are expecting: July 27 - the publication of data on the US consumer market, July 29 - the Fed's decision on the lending rate and a press conference of its management (according to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged at 0.25%),  the data on the GDP of Germany and the United States will be released on July 30, and the week and month will end on July 31 with the publication of the data on the consumer market and GDP of the Eurozone, as well as on retail sales in Germany. Note that, according to forecasts, the fall in GDP (Q2) in the United States may reach -35%, which is 7 times more than the previous value (-5%);

- GBP/USD. “Both the euro and the pound” - this is what the forecast for the GBP/USD pair looks like this week. Just like in the case of EUR/USD, 45% of experts vote for a downward reversal of the pair, 35% for a sideways trend, and 20% for further growth of the pair. Indicators have a similar picture: 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators look up, and the remaining 25% give signals that the pair is overbought.
It should be borne in mind here that on July 24, the pair almost reached the high of June 10, 1.2810, thus completing a seven-week V-shaped cycle. Therefore, the probability of a downward correction is now quite high. The target for the bears may be a return to the 1.2480-1.2670 zone, the nearest support is at 1.2715. If the pair, having broken through the resistance of 1.2810, nevertheless goes further upward, its targets will be the levels 1.3020, 1.3070 and 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. As mentioned above, this pair has not left the side corridor 106.00-108.10 for 15 weeks. However, on Friday, July 24, it broke through its lower border and dropped to 105.65. True, then it turned around and finished the last five days in the area of 106.00. So, what was it: a false breakthrough, a move to a new echelon or a serious trend sweep? We'll find out soon enough. In the meantime, the forecast for the Japanese yen looks like this: 60% of experts vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the return of the pair within the trading range of 106.00-108.10. The targets are 106.65, 107.50 and, of course, 108.10. The remaining 40% believe that investor interest in the yen, as a protective asset, will still outweigh interest in the dollar, and the pair will go further down. Supports are 105.65 and 105.00.
As for indicators, their readings are largely like those of their “colleagues” on the euro and the pound, of course, in a mirror reflection. Colored red: on H4 - 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators, on D1 - 70% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators, and 15% of oscillators on H4 and 30% on D1 signal that the pair is oversold;

– cryptocurrencies. Some experts talk a lot about bitcoin being linked to the stock market. In their opinion, the change in stock indexes pulls the change in bitcoin quotes. Though, probably, it is not like this It is just that both stocks and cryptocurrencies are, in the eyes of institutional investors, independent risk assets that are pushed up by fear for the fate of the dollar. At the same time, the crypto market, if compared with the traditional one, is quite small, and any moves by large speculators can cause serious excitement on it, and sometimes a real storm.
In the meantime, expert opinions are as follows. 45% of them believe that the BTC/USD pair will continue to move sideways and will not go beyond the $9,000-9,700 corridor. 45% do not rule out attempts by bitcoin to break into the $9,800-10,000 zone, and only 10% expect it to fall below $9,000. At the same time, 65% are confident that the main cryptocurrency will still be able to gain a foothold in the area of the landmark $10,000 mark within two to three months.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 03 - 07, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The U.S. economy is not just in recession. It's flying down at a breakneck speed. The decline in US GDP in the second quarter was the largest ever recorded - minus 32.9%. The reasons for this fall are well known - these are quarantine measures caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The authorities hope they can stop the spread of COVID-19 without turning the economy to zero. Some states have managed to tighten quarantines without restricting economic activity and to achieve a smoothing of the incidence curve.
However, there are hopes and there is a reality - the same minus 32.9%, which plunged investors into a real shock, causing a simultaneous fall in both the US dollar and stock indices. While these two indicators were going in antiphase in spring - the USD index (DXY) grew, when the Nasdaq and the S&P500 fell, and vice versa, now they all fell.
In contrast to the United States, things in Europe turned out to be not so bad, as evidenced by the macroeconomic indicators published last week. Germany's GDP fell by only 10.1% in absolute terms, and in the Eurozone - by 12.1%, the data on GDP and consumer spending of France, as well as retail sales in Germany look rather optimistic, which contributes to the strengthening of the European currency.
The EUR/USD pair is growing for the third month in a row, the strongest strengthening since 1998 and the sharpest upward jump in 10 years. In July alone, the euro strengthened against the dollar by 725 points (5.6%), which has not been observed since September 2010. As a result, the pair reached a local high of 1.1908 on Friday 31 July, followed by a pullback on the wave of the monthly profit fixing, and it ended the session at 1.1775;

- GBP/USD. Following the EUR/USD, the pair continues to strive up. Over the past week, the pound has slipped the dollar by 380 points, and has almost reached 1.3200, stopping at 1.3170. Then, just like in the case of the euro, the July profit was fixed, and the finish was at 1.3085;

— USD/JPY. The Japanese currency has been strengthening its positions for almost the entire week. A particularly noticeable move occurred on Thursday, July 30, following the release of dismal US GDP data. At this point, the pair almost came close to the 104 yen to the dollar mark. However, there was a sharp reversal of the trend on Friday, and it returned almost where it started the five-day period. The final chord was played at 105.90. And thus, the change in the quote for the week was only about 20 points;

– cryptocurrencies. What everyone has been waiting for since mid-May, when bitcoin was halved, finally happened. Bitcoin broke through the level of $10,000 in a powerful snatch and stopped, only reaching the height of $11,365, then moved into a sideways trend with gradually fading fluctuations, choosing as Pivot Point the horizon $11,000.
Experts cite the continuing fall of the dollar and the beginning of the fall in stock markets as the reason for the growth of the main cryptocurrency. The dollar has ceased to play the role of a defensive asset, which it was this spring, in the midst of the panic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and investors again turned to such traditional instruments as precious metals, and at the same time to the "digital gold" - bitcoin.
The BTC/USD pair ceased to correlate with stock indices and returned to the correlation with XAU/USD. This has once again shown that big institutional investors see BTC only as a "supplement" to core financial assets. It is difficult to argue with that, because even the total capitalization of the crypto market, which has reached $330 billion, is a drop in the ocean compared to traditional markets.   
So, over the past week, the capitalization on the high-rise has grown by $44 billion, or about 15%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has jumped to 75 (53 a week ago), matching the coin being heavily overbought and pointing to a possible correction.
In its quest to upward, the main cryptocurrency has pulled the top altcoins, which show even greater growth than the "mother" asset: bitcoin (BTC/USD) 17%, ripple (XRP/USD) 19%, ethereum (ETH/USD) 21%, litecoin (LTC/USD) 30%. In the long term, experts assess Ethereum's chances above all else. With a 75% probability, this coin could rise in price to $400 by the end of the year.
The growth of the crypto market has certainly become the main news of the week, but there are other that may play a significant role in the future. So, a Federal Court in the United States has finally recognized bitcoin as money. This was stated by Chief Justice of the District Court of the District of Columbia Beryl Howell, considering the case of Coin Ninja CEO Larry Dean Harmon, accused of laundering $ 311 million. She noted that the concept of money “usually means a means of circulation, a method of payment or a means of saving. And bitcoin is those things.” Recall that the US has precedent law, and such a judge's decision can have far-reaching consequences.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Fed officials acknowledged last week that the pace of recovery in the U.S. economy is directly dependent on the epidemiological situation. Naturally, the same goes for Europe. However, despite the fact that in order to make any decisions, European politicians each time need to reach a consensus, it is difficult, but they manage to do it. Quarantine measures taken by the leaders of individual EU countries, in total, turned out to be much more coordinated and effective than in the United States, which has a direct impact on the economic situation. It is evident that America feels noticeably worse than Europe, which is reflected in the EUR/USD pair rate.
75% of trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 are painted green, as well as 85% of oscillators on both timeframes. Also, 45% of experts are expecting the continuation of the euro growth, supported by graphical analysis on D1. The target is an important psychological level 1.2000, after breaking which in the medium term the road to 1.2500 will open.
Although, referring to September 2017, we see that after reaching the level of 1.2000, a deep two-month correction to 1.1550 followed, and only after its completion the pair reached the height of 1.2500.
Of course, there was no coronavirus pandemic three years ago and things may now go according to a different scenario. However, according to 55% of analysts, the dollar should not be written off. And as far as the immediate outlook is concerned, they believe the pair could drop to the 1.1650-1.1700 zone, which is confirmed by graphical analysis on H4 and 15% of oscillators that signal it is overbought.
As for the coming week, we should pay attention to the indicators of the ISM Business Activity Index in the US manufacturing and services sector (to be published on August 03 and 04, respectively), as well as to the labour market data (NFP), traditionally published on the first Friday of the month.
It should be noted that in the medium term, the overwhelming majority (80%) of experts expect the US to improve and the dollar to return to 1.1000-1.1300;

- GBP/USD. Unlike EUR/USD, the pair being overbought signals here are given by significantly more oscillators: 15% on H4 and 35% on D1. Graphical analysis on H4 looks south as well. But the trend indicators - 90% on H4 and 100% on D1 - are still pointing north.
Among experts, the majority of votes are given to bears - 60% on W1 and 80% on MN - indicating markets are uncertain about the strength of the British currency. Indeed, despite some lull, the problems associated with Brexit have not gone away.
Some clarity regarding the state and prospects of the UK economy can be given on Thursday, August 06, when the Bank of England will meet, its monetary policy report will be published and the decision on the interest rate will become known. Also, of interest to traders and investors is the subsequent speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.
In the meantime, the following levels can be marked for the GBP/USD pair: support -1.3000, 1.2900, 1.2770 and 1.2670, resistance - 1.3200 and the December 2019 high, 1.3515; 

— USD/JPY. 60% of experts supported by graphical analysis on H4 believe that the pair will try to test the 104.00 level once again in the next few days. And it will not succeed and will return first to the area of 106.00 within a month, and then rise even higher - to the zone 106.60-108.00. According to the remaining 40% of analysts, there will be no attempt to re-break south, and the pair will immediately strive to the height of 108.00.
After the forward and reverse movement of the pair last week, there is complete confusion among the indicators on H4. But the D1 is still dominated by red, 80% of oscillators and the same number of trend indicators are painted in it;

– cryptocurrencies. According to Glassnode specialists, after the price overcame the psychological barrier of $10,000, miners began to hold on to most of the bitcoins they mined. This can create a certain deficit in the market and contribute to the growth of quotations.
According to billionaire Max Kaiser, founder of Heisenberg Capital, the main cryptocurrency should break the previous record of $20,000 and rise in price to $28,000. True, there are also those who disagree with this forecast.  “Bitcoin is attractive for investment. Nevertheless, an update of highs in the region of $28,000, which Kaiser designated, is unlikely, - retorted the billionaire of the Data Center Six-Nines Sergey Troshin. - As usual, the first hype is the most powerful, the other hypes are already lower. Perhaps when bitcoin reaches the $17,000-$18,000 mark, many will start fixing profits, waiting for a correction,”
An even more modest forecast was given by analysts at Bloomberg. They believe that if the number of active user addresses does not change, the bitcoin's target will be the 2019 high, $12,734.
As for the average forecast of analysts, 60% of them expect a correction in the near future and a decline of the pair to the resistance of $10,000. The remaining 40% agree with the Bloomberg forecast. At the same time, the most cautious experts do not tire of reminding about the volatility of crypto trends. Thus, the launch of futures in December 2017. became the starting point of crypto winter, and after impressive growth in the first month and a half of 2020 bitcoin collapsed to $3,830, jeopardizing the existence of all of the digital currency market.
But there is also good news for those who fear a similar apocalypse. One of the veterans of the bitcoin industry, the Abra platform has added the feature to earn on deposits in cryptocurrency and stablecoins. According to the company's website, TrueUSD (TUSD), Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) are the most profitable - 9% per annum. The annual return of deposits in bitcoin and ethereum is 4.1% and 4.0% respectively. The rates offered by Abra are indeed higher than bank interest on deposits in dollars or euros, which is good news. But the question arises about the reliability of these deposits - in a conversation with The Block, Abra representatives said that rates will be revised weekly. And it will be very sad if they go down to zero or go into the negative zone altogether.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 10 - 14, 2020

First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The dollar has been falling for six straight weeks. The USD index (DXY) fell to the minimum values since May 2018. In total, it has lost about 10% in the last five months. And now, it seems that the fall has stopped: the EUR/USD pair is moving along the side corridor within 1.1700-1.1910 for the second week in a row. Attempts to break through its upper border on August 05-06 ended in failure, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.1785 on Friday August 07.
The U.S. President, who attacked China's social networks, added to the strength of the dollar. The bears await a full-scale resumption of trade wars between Washington and Beijing like manna from heaven, and hope that Donald Trump will not limit himself to this one-time attack.
Congress, which has not yet been able to reach an agreement on new stimulus measures for the U.S. economy, helped the dollar to strengthen a little. As a result, the growth of stock indices stalled, and investors' views turned to the American currency again.
U.S. macroeconomic indicators released last week, also forced to talk about the fading of positive dynamics. The Private Sector Employment Report (ADP) looked rather weak, and activity indices based on credit card transactions and mobile traffic were at levels 10-30% lower than before the COVID-19 crisis.
The NFP indicator seems to have turned green, but, in fact, the figure of 1.763 million is not newly created, but old jobs, to which people who had previously been sent on forced long-term vacations returned. Recall that in May and June this figure was 2.7 million and 4.8 million, respectively. So the July result was the worst for the period.

- GBP/USD. Since March, during the entire period of the crisis, the GBP/USD pair has been showing a close correlation with EUR/USD, practically repeating all its fluctuations. The British pound approached its March high on Thursday, August 06, reaching the height of 1.3185. Some analysts believe that this happened following the meeting of the Bank of England. However, one can disagree with this. Rather, the blame is the general drawdown of the dollar, the DXY index of which dropped to a low these days.
The meeting of the British regulator, as expected, offered no surprises. The Bank of England decided to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 0.1%, and the target volume of the QE program at ?745 billion. At the same time, the Bank's management believes that the UK economy will recover from the effects of the pandemic until the end of 2021, and the pace of its recovery again will depend on the pandemic itself. In general, there is no certainty. At the same time, the regulator believes that there is no urgent need to adjust its monetary policy, and even more so, it is not worth discussing the introduction of negative interest rates. Such a move could create difficulties for banks, which are already suffering serious losses associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.
As a result, the British currency, just like the European one, moved sideways against the dollar, holding in a trading range 1.2980-1.3185. The final chord was set at 1.3055;

— USD/JPY. The Bank of Japan is a member of a consortium of several other central banks, including the UK, Europe and Canada, that have teamed up to explore the prospects and challenges of a digital currency launch. Now Japan is actively working to launch the digital yen, for which a special supervisory committee has even been created. Perhaps this event will attract the attention of investors, but so far the fiat yen has again dropped out of sight of large financial "sharks": over the past five days, the range of its fluctuations did not exceed 115 points, and the Japanese currency ended the trading session almost in the same place where it started a week ago - at around 105.90;

– cryptocurrencies. The opinion that cryptocurrencies can make everyone, even a child, a millionaire, was confirmed last week. However, this does not always happen in an honest way. So, a few days ago, the police detained 17-year-old Graham Clark, who is accused of organizing hacker attacks on celebrity Twitter accounts. Among others, his targets were Elon Musk, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, on whose behalf he organized bitcoin fraudulent actions. So, this teenager turned out to be the owner of 300 BTC, which at the current exchange rate is about $3.5 million!
As for adult residents of the United States, Cornerstone Advisors have recently published the results of a study according to which 15% of Americans already own bitcoins or other altcoins, and half of them have become crypto investors in the last six months. On average, new investors, who have invested more than $67 billion in the crypto market, spent about $4,000 each. Most of them are high-income people (about $130,000 a year) with college degrees. And interestingly, almost 100% of investors are men.
And now for the news that scared many members of the crypto community. After an impressive rise to a height of $12,080, on Sunday, August 02, the price of bitcoin unexpectedly, within just a few minutes, collapsed to $10,500, causing panic among investors. However, to their delight, there was no further decline, and the quotes quickly returned to the $11,000 mark. Rupert Douglas, head of institutional sales at Koine, said the move was driven by the liquidation of long positions at high prices. Thus, on this day, positions worth $147 million were liquidated on the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange. All in all, during this "gray Sunday" cryptocurrency market capitalization lost about $30 billion, falling from $361 to 331 billion.
The level of $11,000 became a new powerful support for BTC/USD, pushing back from which, the pair was able to rise again to the zone of $11,500-11,850 by Friday 07 August. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has also almost recovered, reaching $357 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 77, which is about the same as seven days ago.
The ETH/USD pair is back in the $400 zone. It should be noted that the growth rate of ethereum trading volumes in spot and futures markets is increasing faster than the same rate of bitcoin. If the trade volume ratio between ETH and BTC was only 16% in September 2019, so far this figure has risen to 50%. In the futures market, it climbed from 8% to 29% over the same period. Figures are based on cryptocurrency exchanges Binance, Coinbase, Bitfinex, Kraken and Bitstamp. According to CoinGecko, daily trading volumes of transactions in ethereum currently exceed $15.1 billion, behind the same indicator of bitcoin by only 25%. However, the capitalization of ETH is still significantly - 5.25 times - lower than that of BTC.

As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The Fed's balance sheet has not been growing for several months, and the Treasury has accumulated more than $1.7 trillion in its vaults. As a result, we are seeing a slowdown in the recovery of the US economy, which is likely to still force the government and the Fed to take new measures to stimulate it. Otherwise, instead of a V-shaped rebound, a W-shaped recession will become reality, and Donald Trump will finally lose the already weak chances of re-election.
50% of the experts believe that the next stage of pumping the economy with liquidity and other measures of fiscal stimulus will not take long. Therefore, the dollar will continue its fall, and the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow. The nearest targets are 1.1840, 1.1900 and 1.2000.
20% of analysts expect the continuation of the lateral trend of the pair within 1.1700-1.1910, and the remaining 30% believe that within the next few weeks it will return to the area of 1.1450.
Apart from half of the experts, graphical analysis is looking to the north, as well as 80% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators on D1. The remaining 20% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
We are waiting for data on the US consumer market in the coming week, which will be released on Wednesday August 12 and Friday August 14. And if the consumer price index is forecast to stay flat, retail sales could show a decline in July from 7.5% to 1.7%. Also, on Friday, preliminary data on Eurozone GDP for the second quarter will be known;

- GBP/USD. Apart from the weak dollar, the Bank of England's refusal to cut interest rates and increase the asset purchase program plays for the pound. On Wednesday August 12, UK GDP data for QII will be released, which is forecast to have contracted by 20.2%. By comparison, the Eurozone economy fell by 12% over the same period and the US one by 9.5%. And investors assumed that such a difficult situation could force the regulator to take additional stimulus measures. However, the firm position of the Bank's management should allay their fears and help the British currency not only stay afloat, but also push it further up against the dollar.
This is exactly what 60% of experts believe at the moment, supported by 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1. Resistance levels are 1.3185, 1.3200 and 1.3285. 40% of analysts have taken the opposite position. Support levels are 1.2980, 1.2900, 1.2765 and 1.2670. As for the graphical analysis, it draws a continuation of the lateral movement of the pair in the range 1.2980-1.3185 on H4, followed by a decrease to 1.2900;

- USD / JPY.  50% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that in the coming days the pair will once again try to test the level of 106.40, and, if successful, rise another 100 points higher. Intermediate resistance is at 106.65. 20% of analysts are in favor of sideways movement, and the remaining 30% are waiting for the pair to fall first to support at 105.30, and then to 104.75. The ultimate target is the July 31 low at 104.18.
Now a few words about indicators. While their readings for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on H4 showed complete chaos and relative order on D1, the opposite is true for the Japanese yen. It is almost impossible to bring indicator signals on D1 to any denominator. But on H4 65% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators are painted green. However, the number of oscillators signaling the pair is overbought is also quite large: 25%. And 10% of them have taken a neutral position, painted grey;

– cryptocurrencies. Bloomberg experts confirmed the forecast for the value of bitcoin at $20,000 by the end of this year. “After a slump of 60 percent in 2014, the value of the coin increased several dozen times over the following three years. The decline in 2018 was about 75 percent. Bitcoin had previously approached $20,000 and even took the corresponding barrier, but quickly slipped. In the current reality, the coin has every chance to gain a foothold at peak values," Bloomberg experts say.
The value of the cryptocurrency may also be affected by macroeconomic factors, including the policy of low rates of the US Federal Reserve. Many large countries are trying to get out of the crisis as soon as possible, and therefore allow the drawdown of fiat. Against the background of such fluctuations, bitcoin has a chance to come out on top in investor preferences.
Well-known analyst TV presenter Max Kaiser, who expects a rapid rise in BTC/USD to $28,000, also confirmed his forecast. According to him, bitcoin will not have noticeable levels of resistance before this mark. The December 2017 high in the region of $20,000 will not become it either. "Then a short pullback, and an assault of $100,000 with renewed energy," Kaiser continued his forecast, though he did not name a time frame for it.
But it was identified by the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, who said that the quotes of the first cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 by December 2020. Another popular cryptanalyst, Plan B, indicated a longer term. Based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, he calculated that bitcoin would rise to the specified mark only by the end of the next year, 2021.
Experts of the Zubr cryptocurrency platform decided to somewhat cool the ardor of enthusiasts. They conducted a study of the volatility of BTC and came to the conclusion that, despite the increased volatility compared to traditional assets, the main cryptocurrency maintains "market equilibrium" most of the time. Analysts at Zubr found that after sharp changes in bitcoin price, in most cases, there is an almost symmetrical percentage move in reverse. This means that soon, after rising above $12,000, the price of bitcoin may return to the $10,000 mark.

NordFX Analytical Group

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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CryptoNews

- The head of the investment company Morgan Creek Anthony Pompliano believes that bitcoin in a few years will overtake the capitalization of gold. According to him, the main cryptocurrency is increasingly in demand among large investors. It is no longer perceived as a supporting asset, making it one of the most versatile investment tools that even government regulators will start working with. When the world has the possibility of “white” investing in bitcoin, its popularity will begin to increase at a frantic rate.
“I think bitcoin will surpass gold in capitalization by 2029. Then most of the financial institutions will stop being afraid of cryptocurrency and start investing large amounts in it. Until that time, digital assets will continue to be less in demand than fiat. The dollar and other currencies this year have shown weakness in the face of geopolitical fluctuations and even pandemics. Bitcoin has not only resisted, but also increased its potential”, Pompliano said.

- Larry Cermak, an analyst at The Block cryptocurrency publication, believes that if the trend continues, Ethereum can become the most sought-after asset in the corporate environment. “The commission revenues of Monero, Bitcoin Cash and BSV miners remain negligible. I think that there will be two big players in this game soon, bitcoin and ethereum. ETH continues to break records, and BTC still looks very weak in terms of the use of its network among companies,” Cermak said. In his opinion, the difference in their indicators will become so obvious soon that the altcoin will be officially recognized as the leader.
Emin Gun Sirer, a renowned researcher specializing in computer networks and P2P systems, also noted the upward trend in activity on the ethereum network. According to him, a typical mistake of investors in bitcoin is that they believe in its popularity this year, even though the coin has actually become just a means of saving assets.

- Seven out of ten cryptocurrency investors will keep their bitcoins even if its price drops to zero. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by a well-known analyst under the nickname PlanB. The survey involved 22,635 Twitter users. When asked “At what price will you get rid of bitcoin if it does not rise sharply in the next few years?” 5.8% of respondents named the price below $1000, about the same amount - the range of $1000- $3000. 16.2% of those surveyed would have sold the coins at around $6,000. The remaining 72% of the survey participants said that they would continue to hold bitcoin even if its price approached zero.
Almost as many fanatical “hodlers” (57.5%) turned out in a July survey by critic of the first cryptocurrency, president of brokerage Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff, attended by 28,000 people.

- Legendary investor Warren Buffett will eventually see bitcoin in the investment portfolio of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway. Morgan Creek Digital venture capital firm co-founder Jason Williams is convinced of this. Moreover, in his opinion, Berkshire Hathaway can buy BTC even without the knowledge of its founder. 'These are young managers and analysts who are pushing gold trading and BTC trading. He won't even know when it happens," Williams explained. The reason for this forecast was the report of the management company of the "Oracle of Omaha" to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to this document, Berkshire Hathaway has reduced its positions in shares of the largest US banks - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, PNC Financial Services Group and US Bancorp, and has acquired almost 21 million shares of the gold mining company Barrick Gold for $562 million Now it's up to bitcoin.

- The SpaceChain project has announced the successful implementation of a multi-signature bitcoin transaction from space. The researchers sent 0.01 BTC to two addresses, for which they used specialized equipment located on the international space station. Recall that a multi-signature transaction, unlike a conventional transaction, requires multiple signatures for authorization, which has additional security benefits. “The implementation of the multi-signature transaction in space reflects our continued efforts to create an open network of satellites on the blockchain with enhanced security and unchangeability characteristics », 'reported SpaceChain co-founder and CTO Jeff Garzik.
The project is supported by the European Space Agency and intends to create products for digital banks and fintech companies in the future.

- Bitcoin price will reach $100,000 next summer, to be exact, on August 16, 2021. This is evidenced by the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model used in the gold market. The forecast was published by an analyst under the moniker Bit Harrington. He added that the value seems too high to him for such a period but noted that Bitcoin has always gone against bearish sentiment.
Analyst and entrepreneur Mark Van Der Chase explained why this forecast could well come true. “A lot of people think it's impossible,” he wrote, “but I've seen 1,000% growth in less than a year at least twice in BTC history (in 2013 and 2017). S2F holds up pretty well after the halving. If the fear of lost profits resumes, anything is possible. "
On the same day, analyst Plan B, who was the first to apply S2F to Bitcoin, presented a chart confirming that recent BTC price movements are consistent with this pattern. According to his forecast, bitcoin could reach the level of $14,000 in the next week or two, for the first time since 2017.

- Bitcoin has overtaken the popularity of shares of leading companies in the United States, second only to Tesla.  Boeing took the third place in views. This is evidenced by data from the analytical portal Blockchaincenter. Since the start of the year, Tesla shares have risen more than 283%, while bitcoin has added 60%. Apple, which rose 53%, failed to take the lead in any state. TradingView notes that the interest of traders and investors in this company is very low at the moment.

- Bloomberg reports on improving the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market. The Blomberg Galaxy composite crypto index rose to its highest level since June 2019. This is a positive signal, according to analysts of the agency. Bloomberg experts linked the rise in the value of BTC and other cryptocurrencies with the improvement in the situation in the American stock market. The S&P500 is heading to new highs as investor interest in risky assets is growing again.

- The head of Galaxy Digital holding Mike Novogratz has once again stated that the value of bitcoin should increase to at least 20 thousand dollars by the end of this year. In an interview with CNBC, the entrepreneur spoke about his opinion on the future of the cryptocurrency industry against the backdrop of the halving experienced by the main coin and the economic situation in the world.
“Bitcoin is becoming a more sought-after retail tool. The interest of big investors in it is not fading either. This is stated by the increasing correlation of the main coin and precious metals. Bitcoin was heavily reliant on US stock markets in March, but now the connection between industries is gradually declining. The dollar exchange rate is almost irrelevant as well. The main reason for the surge in interest in cryptocurrency is the emission of large amounts of cash. In fact, fiat is just depreciating at a very fast rate. Because of this, the Bitcoin rally should start as soon as possible. I do not exclude that the historical maximum will once again be taken before the end of the year," Novogratz noted.

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CryptoNews

- A new report by the cryptocurrency fund Grayscale Investments states that the current structure of the BTC market is similar to that of early 2016 before the historic bullish growth began. Fund analysts predict that demand for bitcoin will rise significantly as inflation accelerates. At the same time, their report provides readings of several network indicators indicating the growing interest in this cryptocurrency. This is confirmed by the number of active addresses, which is at the highest level after the record highs of 2017. Also, against the background of historical lows in the number of bitcoins stored in the "reserves" of cryptocurrency exchanges, the number of long-term investors has increased. This suggests that the demand for bitcoin is not just growing, but at some point, may even seriously exceed the supply.

- A hacker stole the personal data of users of the CryptoTrader.Tax service, which is intended for tax accounting when making transactions with digital currencies. This was reported by the CoinDesk news agency. At least 1,082 clients became victims of the attacker. The hacker gained access to the resource base through the account of a support employee. This allowed him to steal clients' user data, including names, email addresses, part of cryptocurrency transaction revenue details and profile information in payment systems. CryptoTrader.tax confirmed the leak. However, according to co-founder David Kemmerer, user accounts have not been compromised.
After stealing the data, the hacker posted ads on the darknet forums for the sale of the stolen client base.

- Recall that the popularity of BTC in Hong Kong increased amid protests last year. And now, after the arrest on August 10 of the well-known critic of the Chinese government billionaire Jimmy Lai, his popular Hong Kong newspaper Apple Daily decided to vex the Chinese authorities by placing a bitcoin ad on the front page. Apple Daily, which is read by more than half a million people every day, has criticized traditional banks by proposing the mainstream cryptocurrency as an alternative. “Bitcoin will never leave you. Banks, it is not you who are leaving me today, it is me who is leaving you,” reads the text on the front page of the publication. And then the key advantages of cryptocurrency over traditional financial instruments are cited:
“Bitcoin is digital money. It is not issued or controlled by banks or corporations. No one can stop you from carrying out a transaction on the network, and it can't be turned off. Bitcoin is available to everyone regardless of nationality, gender, or belief. Bitcoin started with a genesis block during the 2009 financial crisis. Now is its time,” Apple Daily writes.

- The cybercriminals who created the ransomware Ryuk withdrew about $1 million of the ransom funds through the Binance bitcoin exchange. This is reported by Forbes with reference to cybersecurity specialists who wished to remain anonymous. In response to a request from the publication, security experts at Binance said that "fighting money laundering, ransomware and other malicious activities is their daily work." And they added that their arsenal has a lot of tools to detect suspicious activity. In total, according to the FBI, the victims of the ransomware transferred $61 million to the creators of Ryuk.

- The author of the legendary book “Rich Dad Poor Dad” entrepreneur and investor Robert Kiyosaki declared the inevitability of a new global banking crisis. Moreover, the coming shock will be more widespread than in previous financial crises. Investors need to accelerate the transition to "safe havens," Kiyosaki wrote on Twitter. He also stressed that the proof of the approaching crisis was the fact that such big financiers as Warren Buffett are already selling their assets related to the banking sector. “Probably, these people feel that the crisis is impending and will affect, first of all, the traditional financial system,” - said Kiyosaki. In his opinion, it is necessary now to transfer your capital into more reliable instruments, such as bitcoin, gold and silver.

- Trade in cryptocurrencies through mobile apps has grown by 81% compared to last August. According to the latest report from analyst firm Apptopia, cryptocurrency trading via mobile apps is becoming more and more popular: each new month surpasses the previous one in terms of the number of active users and new registrations. According to some experts, this is due to the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, as well as the rise in the cost of crypto assets.
Among the most popular mobile cryptocurrency trading apps are Coinbase, Blockchain Wallet, and Binance. According to Apptopia, Coinbase and Crypto.com mobile apps recorded a record number of active users per day on August 20 - 969,000 and 576,000, respectively. “July is the highest performing month for mobile cryptocurrency apps in the history of the market, but August has the potential to surpass it,” says the analyst firm's blog.

- Uber's former security chief, Joseph Sullivan, is accused of paying hackers $100,000 in BTC for concealing information about the theft of personal data. In 2016, hackers hacked into the database of Uber, an international company providing taxi search services, according to the U.S. Department of Justice. Attackers gained access to the data of 57 million users, as well as to the driver's license numbers of about 600,000 drivers.
Despite the anonymity of the hackers, Sullivan entered into a non-disclosure agreement with them, under which they were required to keep the hacking of the company's database secret and not to store the received data. Even after Uber employees identified the hackers, it is believed that Sullivan demanded that the attackers re-sign the agreement, providing their real names this time.
Law enforcement agencies became aware of the event only in November 2017, when the management of the company changed. The hackers have already been arrested. As for Sullivan, if found guilty, he could face up to five years in prison for obstructing the enforcement of the law and up to three years in prison for harbouring a crime.

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Number of Accounts Opened in NоrdFX Exceed 1.500.000

Since its foundation in 2008, NоrdFX brokerage company has become one of the recognized leaders in the international forex industry, as evidenced by the trust of clients from more than 190 countries. And this August, the number of trading accounts opened in the company has reached 1 million 500 thousand.

NоrdFX's leading positions are indicated not only by broker ratings published by specialized resources. The company is regularly included in the TOP-10 of many reputable analytical publications that assess the quality of financial services provided. It should be especially noted that among more than 50 of its professional awards there are victories, which directly testify to the trust of the trading community.

Among them:
- Most Reliable Broker 2016, 2017 (The Forex Awards and ShowFX World),
- Most Trusted Cryptocurrency Broker 2018 (Global Brands Awards),
- Traders' Choice World Best Broker (Masterforex-V Academy).

One cannot but recall the multiple victories in various nominations of the IAFT Awards - an award founded by the International Union of Forex Traders, which is more than 200,000 traders from various countries. So, in 2012, NоrdFX won the Best Broker for Trading with Advisors nomination, in 2017 it won the IAFT Awards as The Best Broker to Work with Cryptocurrencies, and in 2015, 2018 and 2019 it was recognized as the Best Broker in Asia.

Evaluating the work of NordFX, the company's clients note its reliability, excellent trading conditions for both beginners and experienced traders, a wide selection of financial instruments, high quality dealing, but most importantly, trust-based business relationships that exist between employees and partners of NordFX and its clients.

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