Morning Market Review
2019-09-23 08:43 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Friday, returning to previous local lows of September 17. The development of negative dynamics was facilitated by weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe. Germany's Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% MoM in August after rising by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. Analysts expected a decline of 0.2% MoM. YoY, the index growth slowed down from +1.1% to +0.3%, which also turned out to be worse than forecast of +0.6% YoY. Preliminary data on Consumer Confidence in the euro area also did not provide significant support for the euro. In September, the indicator slightly increased from –7.1 to –6.5 points, which turned out to be better than expectations of –7.0 points. During today's Asian session, the pair is growing, being influenced by technical factors. Investors are awaiting the publication of Markit PMI in Europe for September.

GBP/USD

The British pound fell against the US currency on Friday, retreating from updated local highs of July 5. Investors are again concerned about the threat of a tough Brexit, which serves as an additional source of market uncertainty. Speaking on Friday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that Britain’s withdrawal from the EU without an agreement would lead to border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Juncker noted that he still counts on concluding a final deal, but the risks of a “tough” scenario cannot be ignored. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading upwards, and investors expect new drivers to appear on the market. With the opening of the American trading session, investors expect publication of Markit PMI in the US for September.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a steady decline against the US currency on Friday, updating local lows of September 4. The instrument remains under pressure amid the worsening growth prospects of the global economy and the lack of visible progress in US-Chinese trade negotiations, which should become more active in early October. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with a slight increase. Investors are focused on Commonwealth Bank PMI in Australia. In September, according to preliminary estimates, Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.9 to 49.4 points, which turned out to be worse than expectations of 50.9 points. Services PMI increased from 49.1 to 52.5 points, which was significantly better than expectations of 45.3 points. Composite PMI in September rose from 49.3 to 51.9 points, confidently consolidating above the psychological mark of 50 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Friday, continuing to develop the “bearish” impulse formed the day before. Investors are holding long positions amid a worsening crisis in the Middle East. At the end of last week, US President Donald Trump approved the dispatch of US troops to Saudi Arabia to strengthen defense after the attack on oil production facilities that occurred the week before last. It is too early to speak of the beginning of a full-fledged military operation, but alarming signals worry investors and increase interest in safe assets. Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Japanese markets are closed due to the Autumn Equinox Day, so all the attention of traders is focused on American and European statistics.

Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, but returned to negative dynamics closer to the end of the afternoon session. Quotes are supported by rising tensions in the Middle East after an attack on key oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia the week before last. The Kingdom announced a military operation north of the city of Hodeidah, while Donald Trump approved the sending of troops to Saudi Arabia to strengthen defense capabilities. In addition, it became known that Riyadh is actively importing oil production equipment from the United States, so that by the end of the month most of the stopped facilities can be restored. Baker Hughes report released last Friday indicated a sharp decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the US from 733 to 719 rigs, which also provided significant support for quotes.

Morning Market Review
2019-09-25 08:43 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The euro showed moderate growth against the US dollar on Tuesday, recovering from an amplitude decline in the instrument the day before when the instrument was actively sold amid the publication of weak data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany. German statistics on Tuesday turned out to be significantly better, although in this case there were some negative points. Current Assessment from the IFO in September showed an increase from 97.3 to 98.5 points with a forecast of 97.0 points. Business Climate index for the same period increased from 94.3 to 94.6 points against the forecast of 94.5 points. Business Expectations turned out worse than expected and fell in September from 91.3 to 90.8 points against the forecast of growth to 91.8 points. During today's Asian session, the euro is trading with an increase again. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the ECB meeting and the speech of the representative of the European regulator Benoit Coeuré.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed growth against the US dollar yesterday, recovering from new local lows of September 17. The growth of the instrument was facilitated by news that the UK Supreme Court found the suspension of parliament illegal. Thus, the parliament should begin its work on Wednesday, which will give more time to work out a decision on the agreement with the EU. Meanwhile, the position of Boris Johnson remains unchanged, and no real progress has been achieved in negotiations with the European Commission, so a new delay in Brexit is the best scenario for today. The macroeconomic statistics from the UK published on Tuesday was contradictory. Public Sector Net Borrowing in August rose by 5.766 billion pounds after a decline of 1.472 billion in the previous month. Analysts expected a growth of 6.650 billion. CBI Industrial Trends Orders indicated a decrease in the volume of orders in September from –13 to –28 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than market expectations.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar strengthened significantly against the US currency on Tuesday, recovering from an uncertain start of the week. The instrument was supported by the results of a speech by RBA head Philip Lowe, who expressed optimism regarding the future prospects of the Australian economy, which, in his opinion, will demonstrate steady growth in the near future, but no significant acceleration should be expected. A positive effect should be achieved by a tax refund, which will increase income from households. Regarding the prospects for monetary policy, Lowe still takes a “dovish” position and believes that in the future the Australian economy may need an additional rate cut. During today's Asian session, the instrument again shows a steady decline, losing positions earned the day before.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continued its active decline against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, updating local lows of September 9. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by the weakening of the US currency over the market, while interest in the yen was maintained against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty in the Middle East and around Brexit. Yesterday's US and Japanese statistic was ambiguous. The Japanese Leading Index in July showed an increase from 93.6 to 93.7 points, which turned out to be better than forecasts. Coincident Index for the same period increased from 99.5 to 99.7 points, while investors expected growth to 99.8 points. Data from the United States indicated a decrease in Richmond Manufacturing Index in September from 1 to –9 points with a forecast of –11 points. Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week as of September 20 showed a decline of 1.1% MoM after a decrease of 0.9% MoM over the past period.

Oil

Oil prices fell significantly on Tuesday, responding to weak macroeconomic statistics from Europe, which intensified the risks of a slowdown in the global economy. At the same time, investors are still counting on a quick recovery in oil production in Saudi Arabia, which also puts pressure on quotes. Another “bearish” factor was the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves. For the week as of September 20, the report reflected growth in stocks by 1.400 million barrels after growth of 0.592 million barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of an official report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy.

Morning Market Review
2019-09-27 08:43 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency showed a decline against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local lows from mid-May 2017. Pressure on the instrument is still exerted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the euro area, which indicates not the most optimistic prospects for the development of the European economy. In addition, technical factors play against the euro. Despite the fact that the instrument has approached local lows traders are still eager to bet on its decline, while its volatility is rapidly declining. During today's Asian session, the pair is correcting upwards. Nevertheless, the market is just waiting for the appearance of new drivers on Friday. Investors will be focused on statistics on Business Sentiment and Consumer Confidence in the euro area in September. Traders are also interested in German Import Price indices and are awaiting a speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos.

GBP/USD

The British pound remains downward paired with the US currency, updating local lows of September 12. The main factor contributing to the decline in the pound remains the uncertain situation around Brexit. There is less and less time for concluding a final agreement with the EU, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the British Parliament are engaged in an internal political struggle. Johnson reaffirmed his position regarding the request for an additional delay, despite the fact that non-compliance with the adopted law threatens Johnson with a prison. Today, the pair is trading in both directions. Slight support for the pound is provided by data on Gfk Consumer Confidence. In September, the indicator rose from –14 to –12 points, which turned out to be better than expectations of –14 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Thursday. The morning growth of the instrument gave way to a decline after the opening of the American session, as the market was filled with relatively good macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Pending Home Sales in August increased by 1.6% MoM and 2.5% YoY, which turned out to be significantly better than the data for the previous period (–2.5% MoM and –0.3 % YoY) and the forecasts (+0.9% MoM and –1.9% YoY). PCE Prices in Q2 2019 increased by 2.4% QoQ after an increase of 0.4% QoQ in the previous period. The final annual data on US GDP indicated a 2% growth in the US economy in Q2 2019, which coincided with market forecasts.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a slight increase against the Japanese yen on Thursday, updating local highs of September 20. The strengthening of the US currency was facilitated by optimistic macroeconomic statistics from the United States. In addition, analysts note an increase in demand for USD amid increased political struggles in the US and the UK, as well as continued trade tensions. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading lower, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation from Japan. Tokyo CPI ex Food and Energy (YoY) slowed down from +0.7% in September to +0.5%, with the forecast of +0.6%. Tokyo CPI for the same period slowed down from +0.6% YoY to +0.4% YoY, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of +0.8% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices showed ambiguous trading dynamics on Thursday. During the day, mainly "bearish" dynamics was observed, since Saudi Arabia is rapidly recovering oil production volumes, which decreased after the drones attack. Pressure on the instrument also persists after the publication of the US Department of Energy report, which indicated an increase in oil reserves with a simultaneous increase in production volumes to new record levels. In turn, optimism for the instrument comes from Donald Trump's statements that an agreement between the United States and China could be signed in the near future. In addition, the US President and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also signed a bilateral trade agreement, which will contribute to the growth of trade between the countries.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-01 08:45 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday, updating record lows of May 2017. Pressure on the euro was provided by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Germany. Retail Sales in August showed a slowdown from +5.2% YoY to 3.2% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market forecasts of +3.3% YoY. On a monthly basis, the indicator grew by 0.5% MoM after a decline of 0.8% MoM in July but the volumes did not reach the expected level of +0.6% MoM. The most disappointing was the data on inflation. According to preliminary estimates, the German Consumer Price Index in September showed zero dynamics on a monthly basis and grew by 1.2% YoY, slowing down from the previous +1.4% YoY. Harmonized Consumer Price Index in September slowed down from +1.0% YoY to +0.9% YoY. During today's Asian session, the euro continues to trade lower. Investors expect publication of September statistics on inflation in the euro area, but market sentiment remains negative.

GBP/USD

GBP showed ambiguous dynamics against USD on Monday, having managed to update local lows of September 9. However, during the day the pound traded mainly with an increase, supported by revised UK GDP indicators for Q2 2019. According to updated data, the British economy grew in Q2 2019 by 1.3% YoY against the previous estimate of +1.2% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the indicator remained unchanged at –0.2% QoQ. The development of flat dynamics of the instrument is also facilitated by the uncertain situation around the political crisis in the UK. The opposition parties of the British parliament are seriously discussing the idea of a vote of no confidence in the current government, which could subsequently lead to a new postponement of Brexit and even to a second referendum.

AUD/USD

AUD showed a decline against USD on Monday and maintains its previous "bearish" sentiment during today's Asian session. The instrument was under pressure from ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Inflation data from TD Securities in September showed a slowdown in annual terms from +1.7% YoY to +1.5% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator slightly increased by 0.1% MoM after zero dynamics last month. Today, pressure on the Australian dollar is exerted by the RBA's expected decision to lower the interest rate from 1.00% to 0.75%.

USD/JPY

USD continues to trade against JPY with an increase, updating local highs of September 19. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument on Monday was facilitated by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial production in August decreased by 1.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY after the increase by 1.3% MoM and 0.7% YoY. Analysts expected the appearance of negative dynamics, but they counted only at –0.5% MoM and –1.8% YoY. In turn, retail sales for August came out significantly better than their forecasts. In monthly terms, the growth rate was +4.8% MoM after a decrease of 2.3% MoM last month and a zero forecast. In annual terms, sales rose 2.0% YoY after a decrease of 2.0% YoY in July. Analysts had expected growth by 0.9% YoY. During today's Asian session, the pair is under pressure from weak data on Manufacturing PMI in Japan. The Jibun Bank PMI in September remained at the previous level of 48.9 points, indicating stagnation of production activity.

Oil

Oil prices showed a steady decline on Monday, responding to the weak prospects for China's economic growth. In addition, investors are waiting for the resolution of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Despite the optimistic start of the ongoing negotiations, which will enter the final stage on October 10, the market is not inclined to be overly optimistic about Donald Trump's statements. Another negative factor for oil was the rapid restoration of previous production volumes by Saudi Arabia. However, in order to achieve this, the kingdom had to turn to its oil reserves, so it is not clear whether Saudi Aramco really managed to return to its previous levels. Today, oil prices show a slight increase. Investors are focused on the publication Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMI in September. In addition, traders expect an API Weekly Crude Oil Stock as of September 27.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-03 08:38 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR rose moderately against USD on Wednesday, updating local highs of September 25. The euro was supported by weak macroeconomic data on US business activity published on Tuesday. ISM Manufacturing PMI in September crashed from 49.1 to 47.8 points against the forecast of growth to 50.1 points. There was significantly less interesting macroeconomic statistics from the US and the euro area yesterday, but this did not prevent the instrument from maintaining a "bullish" sentiment. USD has come under pressure from weak US data. The ADP Employment Change reflected a decline in September from 157K to 135K with a forecast of 140K. During today's Asian session, the pair is traded in both directions, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market. Investors are focused on Services PMI data from the US and the euro area.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Wednesday. During the day, the instrument traded mainly with a decrease, however, with the publication of weak data from the USA, it managed to correct. Pressure on the pound was exerted by the UK Construction PMI. In September, it fell from 45.0 to 43.3 points, although analysts did not predict changes in the indicator. In addition, the market reacted to the speech of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said that the government had prepared a new version of the agreement with the EU, under which it is not supposed to create additional customs checks on the Irish border or near it. Johnson expects approval of the agreement by October 10; otherwise the government will continue to prepare a no-deal Brexit.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Wednesday, closing the session with almost zero result. The decline in the instrument in the morning proceeded under the influence of previous factors, while with the opening of the American session, the Australian dollar was able to recoup. The ADP Employment Change reflected a decline in September from 157K to 135K with a forecast of 140K. ISM NY Business Conditions in September fell from 50.3 to 42.8 points, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast of 47.5 points. During today's Asian session, the pair is trading with an increase. The statistics on Australian PMIs turned out to be quite stable, which provided some support to the instrument. AiG Services index went up from 51.4 to 51.5 points in September. A similar indicator from Commonwealth Bank slightly decreased from 52.5 to 52.4 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, updating local lows of September 25. The yen showed growth, despite the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Consumer Confidence Index in August fell from 37.1 to 35.6 points against the forecast of 36.9 points. A decrease in the indicator to the lowest levels since 2011 is facilitated by the rapid increase in sales tax in Japan, which will significantly affect household spending. During today's Asian session, the pair is traded in both directions, awaiting the appearance of new drivers in the market.

Oil

Oil prices showed a steady decline on October 2, reacting to the publication of a report by the US Department of Energy. In the week as of September 27, US Crude Oil Inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 422.6 million barrels. The market forecast growth of only 1.567 million barrels. At the same time, the report reflected a decrease in US oil production from 12.500 to 12.400 million barrels. Some support for oil quotes was provided by the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, speaking at an Energy Forum in Moscow, noted that Russia intends to continue to comply with the terms of the OPEC+ deal, and is also ready to consider and use all available tools to stabilize the market situation.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-07 08:41 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency showed growth against the US dollar on Friday, but could not update the local highs of the previous day. Investors were focused on the September report on the US labor market. Average Hourly Earnings in the US in September slowed down from 3.2% YoY to 2.9% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations. Nonfarm Payrolls in September fell from the previous 168K to 136K, with a forecast of 140K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate in September unexpectedly dropped from 3.7% to 3.5%, which supported the dollar. U6 Unemployment Rate for the same period decreased from 7.2% to 6.9%. Despite the fact that the report failed to meet all market expectations, it is likely to allow the Fed to take a wait and see attitude for some time.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Friday, reacting to the publication of an ambiguous report on the US labor market. In addition, investors are quite alarmed by the events around Brexit. Boris Johnson sent a new version of the agreement to Brussels, which provides for rather radical solutions to the problem with the Irish border. In particular, it proposed to create an all-island regulatory zone on the Island of Ireland, which will ensure the necessary customs control. The EU was optimistic about the UK's new proposals, but pointed out that a number of problems remained. However, until the UK has a clear agreement with the EU, the probability of a hard Brexit remains.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed active growth against the US currency on Friday, updating local highs of October 1. Moderate support for the instrument at the end of last week was provided by published data from Australia. HIA New Home Sales in August showed an increase of 7.3% MoM after a decrease of 7.2% MoM in the previous month. Retail Sales in August grew by 0.4% MoM, accelerating from previous levels of 0.0% MoM. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.5% MoM. An additional support for the instrument last Friday was provided by an ambiguous report on the US labor market for September, which did not meet expectations. During today's Asian session, AUD is declining. Pressure on the pair is exerted by AiG Construction PMI. In September, the indicator fell from 44.6 to 42.6 points.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the Japanese yen on Friday. The reason for the appearance of ambiguous trading was the report on the US labor market for September, which indicated an unexpected decline in Unemployment Rate in September from 3.7% to 3.5%, but at the same time reflected a sharp decrease in Hourly Earnings in September from 3.2 % YoY to 2.9% YoY. Nonfarm Payrolls in September slowed down from 168K to 136K with a forecast of 145K. During today's Asian session, the pair is showing moderate growth, waiting for new drivers to appear. On Monday, Investors focus on the publication of preliminary data on the Coincident and Leading indicators in Japan, as well as a speech by Jerome Powell in the United States.

Oil

Oil prices showed a moderate increase on Friday, continuing the development of a corrective impulse formed the day before. The report on the labor market disappointed investors with the slowdown in the Hourly Earnings in September from +3.2% YoY to +2.9% YoY; however, data on Employment and Unemployment Rate helped to reduce concerns about the recession in the US economy. Nonfarm Payrolls in September slowed down from 168K to 136K which was a bit worse than a forecast of 145K. The US Unemployment Rate fell to 3.5%, which is the lowest level in almost 50 years. Baker Hughes report on active oil rigs in the USA also provided moderate support for quotes. For the reporting week, the number of oil rigs decreased from 713 to 710 units.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-09 08:50 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency showed a moderate decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, continuing to develop a "bearish" impulse formed the day before. Pressure on the euro was exerted by ambiguous statistics on industrial production in Germany. On a monthly basis, production grew by 0.3% MoM in August after a decrease of 0.4% MoM in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 0.3% MoM. However, in annual terms, production volumes only accelerated their decline from the previous –3.9% YoY to –4.0% YoY, which turned out to be significantly worse than expectations of –2.7% YoY. Another negative factor for the instrument remains the situation around the Brexit process. It became known the day before that Germany opposed Boris Johnson’s new plan to solve the problem with the Irish border, which significantly reduces the chances of concluding a final agreement before the end of October.

GBP/USD

The British pound fell against the US dollar on Tuesday, updating local lows of September 4. The appearance of steady downward dynamics was due to the failure in the negotiations of Boris Johnson with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who rejected the new plan for the Northern Irish border. Merkel noted that a Brexit deal is only possible if Northern Ireland remains in the EU customs union. After another failure at the talks, the British media announced the possibility of five key ministers leaving their posts, which would only complicate the work of Johnson's government. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is still determined to carry out Brexit with or without an agreement on October 31. It is obvious that very soon the question of a new deferral of Brexit will again become acute, which, judging by the statements of Boris Johnson, remains unacceptable to him.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a slight decrease against the US currency on Tuesday, despite the fact that during the day the instrument was trading mainly with an increase. Pressure on the Australian currency was exerted by the US decision to add 28 Chinese companies to the black list of legal entities that are prohibited from business cooperation with American businesses. This fact sharply worsened consensus forecasts for a new round of trade negotiations, which are due to begin on Thursday. It also became known that the PRC stopped broadcasting NBA matches after basketball players expressed their support for the latest protests in Hong Kong. Today, the instrument is trading with weak growth, despite the publication of disappointing macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Westpac Consumer Sentiment in October showed a decline of 5.5% after falling by 1.7% in the previous month.

USD/JPY

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, responding to a sharp deterioration in the prospects for a trade agreement between the PRC and the US in the upcoming round of talks on October 10, as well as to the publication of contradictory US macroeconomic statistics. NFIB Small Business Optimism in the US in September showed a decrease from 103.1 to 101.8 points against the forecast of 104.1 points. The Producer Price Index in September fell by 0.3% MoM after rising 0.1% MoM in August. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.1% MoM. YoY, the production inflation slowed down from +1.8% to +1.4%, which also turned out to be worse than the forecasts of +1.8% YoY. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism in October rose from 50.8 to 52.6 points with a forecast of growth of only 51.2 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline on Tuesday, responding to a sharp deterioration in the prospects for a trade agreement between the US and China after Washington blacklisted some Chinese companies. Donald Trump also changed the tone of his rhetoric regarding negotiations, emphasizing that achieving quick results is unlikely. In turn, some support for the quotes was provided by the ongoing unrest in Iraq and Ecuador, which are likely to adversely affect oil production. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report reflected an unexpected growth of the stock by 4.13 million barrels in the week as of October 4, after a decrease of 5.29 million barrels over the past period.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-11 08:48 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency showed strong growth against the US dollar on Thursday, updating local highs of September 20. The reason for the emergence of positive dynamics for the instrument was not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from the United States, as well as the publication of Fed Minutes that signal in favor of continuing the cycle of interest rate cuts in the United States. The US Consumer Price Index in September showed a slowdown from 0.1% MoM to 0.0% MoM, which turned out to be worse than the forecast of 0.1% MoM. In annual terms, inflation remained at the previous level of 1.7% YoY with a forecast of 1.8% YoY. Core Consumer Price Index in September slowed down from 0.3% YoY to 0.1% YoY, while the market forecast a slowdown to 0.2% YoY. Today the pair is also growing. Investors expect publication of the September statistics on Consumer Inflation in Germany, as well as awaiting speeches by ECB President Mario Draghi and Vice President Luis De Guindos.

GBP/USD

The British pound rose sharply against the US dollar on Thursday, reacting to a joint statement by the prime ministers of Great Britain and Ireland. Boris Johnson held talks with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, which discussed the British government’s plan for back-stop on the Irish border. Varadkar said that Johnson’s plan could lead to a full agreement with the EU, despite a number of contentious issues. In any case, Johnson has overcome another step and can now resume full-fledged negotiations with Brussels. This is expected to happen this Friday. The final decision on Brexit may be made as early as next week at the EU summit.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed moderate growth against the US currency on Thursday, updating local highs of October 1. Optimistic Brexit news, as well as the publication of weak statistics from the USA on consumer inflation, which will create additional pressure on the Fed in the choice of further monetary policy, contributed to the growth of consumer activity on the instrument. In addition, investors are awaiting the outcome of a new round of talks between the United States and China, and so far the market forecasts are very optimistic. Some analysts believe that the United States may conclude a currency agreement with China, which will help to avoid further increase in import duties. This will be the first step towards a final trade deal between countries.

USD/JPY

The US dollar rose significantly against the Japanese yen on Thursday, updating local highs of October 1. The development of the "bullish" dynamics of the instrument was facilitated by a noticeable decline in interest in safe assets in the market amid some progress on trade negotiations between the US and China. In addition, investors are optimistic about Brexit news. Macroeconomic statistics from the US and Japan released yesterday turned out to be ambiguous. The Japanese Core Machinery Orders in August showed a decrease of 14.5% YoY after an increase of 0.3% YoY last month. Analysts expected negative dynamics, but only at –10.8% YoY. In monthly terms, the indicator decreased by 2.4% MoM after a decrease of 6.6% MoM last month. The forecast was –2.5% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices showed strong growth on Thursday, responding to optimistic OPEC statements. In particular, Mohammed Barkindo, the leader of the group of exporters, noted that the cartel is considering all possible options to stabilize supply and demand in the market, and the question of extending the current OPEC+ agreement will be considered in December. In addition, moderate progress in the US-China trade negotiations is providing moderate support to oil quotes. In the focus of investors today, in addition to comments from US and Chinese officials, there is the publication of the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the United States.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-15 08:44 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency showed ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar on Monday, recording a slight decrease following the session. Pressure was exerted by contradictory macroeconomic statistics from the euro area, as well as increased skepticism regarding the Brexit negotiation process. The media got information that Brussels is not entirely satisfied with Boris Johnson's plan on the Irish border. Nevertheless, the parties continue active negotiations and hope to reach a compromise by October 31. Macroeconomic statistics showed the growth of Industrial Production in the euro area in August by 0.4% MoM after a decline of 0.4% MoM a month earlier. The indicator was stronger than the forecast of 0.3% MoM. However, in annual terms, Production continued to decline. In August, the indicator reached –2.8% YoY after a decrease of 2.1% YoY in July. Experts expected a decrease of 2.5% YoY.

GBP/USD

The British pound began the new week trading in both directions against the US dollar. The optimism regarding Brexit, which increased markedly at the end of last week, is gradually clouded by investor doubts, as it seems that Boris Johnson’s plan does not find support in Brussels. Today, GBP is trading with a slight increase. Investors are focused on the UK labor market report and the publication of the financial stability report from the Bank of England. It is expected that data on the labor market will indicate a slight slowdown in Average Earnings growth and maintaining Unemployment Rate at the previous level of 3.8%

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell against the US currency on Monday, starting a new week with correctional dynamics after strong growth last Friday. The decrease was largely technical in nature, since few new drivers appeared on the market. At the same time, the pressure on the pair was exerted by the deteriorating prospects for concluding an agreement between the UK and the EU within the framework of Brexit and not the most optimistic macroeconomic statistics from China. Chinese exports went down by 3.2% YoY in September after the decline by 1.0% YoY in the previous month. Analysts had expected decline by 3.0% YoY. Imports for the same period collapsed by 8.5% YoY after a decline of 5.6% YoY in August. The indicator also came out worse than its forecasts (–5.2% YoY).

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the Japanese yen on Monday, halting the development of an uptrend in the short term, which brought the instrument to local highs of August 1. Japanese exchanges were closed yesterday due to the Health and Sports Day, so market activity remained fairly low. During today's Asian session, the instrument is trading in both directions, reacting to the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial Production in August showed a decrease of 1.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY, which coincided with the forecasts and the pace of decline in July. At the same time, the Capacity Utilization indicator in August collapsed by 2.9% after an increase of 1.1% a month earlier. Analysts expected the appearance of negative dynamics, but expected a slight decrease of –0.2%. Tertiary Industry Index in August grew by 0.4% MoM after declining by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. The index turned out significantly better than its forecasts of –0.2% MoM.

Oil

Oil prices fell on Monday, departing from local highs, updated at the end of last week. Despite some progress in negotiations between the United States and China, investors are still skeptical about the conclusion of a full-scale trade agreement between the countries. In addition, the current increased tariffs on Chinese imports remain in force, as well as Huawei remains on the black list. Additional pressure on quotes is also exerted by the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count report published at the end of the last trading week. For the first time in the last 2 months, the report indicated an increase in the number of rigs from 710 to 712 units.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-17 08:52 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency rose significantly against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of September 16. EUR was supported by the macroeconomic statistics from the euro area. Core Consumer Price Index in September rose by 0.4% MoM and 1.0% YoY, which was slightly better than in the previous month (+0.4% MoM and +0.9% YoY). The euro area Trade Balance surplus in August rose from EUR 17.5 to 20.3 billion, exceeding forecasts of EUR 18.9 billion. Additional support for the instrument was provided by the newly improved prospects for a deal between the EU and the UK at today's summit. The EU representatives noted that all the differences were overcome and, theoretically, nothing prevents to conclude a deal before the end of this week. This Saturday, a vote on the final version of the deal is planned in the parliament.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local highs of May 15. The pound is supported by good prospects for a deal between the EU and the UK at today’s summit. The summit Chairman Donald Tusk noted that the agreement is ready and it is likely to be signed by all 27 participating countries. Optimistic news also came from the UK, where DUP leaders said they agreed with the Brexit proposals and were ready to support them on Saturday’s vote. Meanwhile, the UK macroeconomic statistics put pressure on the pound. Retail Price Index fell by 0.2% MoM in September after rising by 0.8% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected decline by 0.1% MoM. Consumer Price Index in September showed an increase of 0.1% MoM and 1.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than forecasts of +0.2% MoM and +1.8% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed ambiguous dynamics against the US currency on Wednesday, but is again growing rapidly during today’s Asian session. Some support for the instrument was provided by improved prospects for concluding an agreement between the EU and the UK. In turn, an attempt by US lawmakers to review Hong Kong’s special trade status threatens with new problems in relations with China and a breakdown in the results of trade negotiations. Today, investors are focused on the September statistics on the Australian labor market. Employment Change in September grew by 14.7K against 37.9K a month earlier. Analysts had expected an increase of 15K. At the same time, Full Time Employment increased by 26.2K after a decrease of 13.2K last month, and Part Time Employment decreased by 11.4K after an increase of 51.1K in August. Unemployment Rate in September decreased unexpectedly from 5.3% to 5.2%.

USD/JPY

The US dollar fell slightly against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, reversing near its local highs of August 1. The pressure on the US currency, in addition to a number of technical factors, was exerted by weak statistics on the dynamics of US retail sales. Retail Sales in September showed a decrease of 0.3% MoM after an increase of 0.6% MoM a month earlier. Analysts had expected positive dynamics to remain at +0.3% MoM. Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM also declined in September by 0.1% MoM after growth by 0.2% MoM and with the forecast of +0.2%.

Oil

Oil prices showed a slight increase on Wednesday, responding to corrective sentiment in the US currency and optimistic signals from OPEC that the agreement on limiting oil supplies could be extended in December. The next meeting of the cartel is scheduled for December 5-6 and should be held in Vienna. Pressure on quotes was exerted by API Weekly Crude Oil Stock Report. For the week as of October 11, the indicator increased sharply by 10.50 million barrels after an increase of 4.13 million barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Inventories.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-21 08:46 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

The European currency showed steady growth against the US dollar last week, updating local highs of August 14. The growth of the euro during the week was promoted by weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA, as well as optimistic news from the UK, where the issue with Brexit was moving ahead at an unprecedented pace. Boris Johnson managed to agree on all the details of the new version of the agreement with the EU, after which the British Parliament was supposed to ratify this agreement on Saturday. Unfortunately, this did not happen, and Parliament ordered Johnson to request a new postponement of the country's exit from the EU until February.

GBP/USD

The British pound rose significantly against the US dollar last week, noting new local highs of May 13. The British currency was supported by Brexit news during the week. Investors were optimistic about the process of working out a new agreement between the UK and the EU, reacting to the positive comments of officials. Today, the instrument shows corrective dynamics, reacting to the results of the meeting of the British Parliament, held on Saturday, October 19. Instead of approving a new version of the agreement, the British Parliament legally ordered Boris Johnson to request a new deferral of Brexit from the EU. The amendment, which was put forward by former conservative Oliver Letwin, gained the support of 322 members of parliament, while 306 voted against it. However, by October 31, Johnson theoretically still has time to resolve the issues that have arisen, but the chances of this are very small.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed moderate growth against the US currency at the end of last trading week. The growth of the instrument can be traced today, but the "bullish" activity is gradually weakening. A more confident growth of the instrument is hindered by the publication of not the strongest macroeconomic statistics from China. Last Friday, data on China's GDP for Q3 2019 reflected a slowdown in the Chinese economy from +6.2% YoY to +6.0% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations at +6.1% YoY. On a quarterly basis, the indicator decreased from +1.6% QoQ to +1.5% QoQ. However, there are still some positive news. In September, Retail Sales in China increased from 7.5% YoY to 7.8% YoY, while Industrial Production growth rates for the same period significantly accelerated from +4.4% YoY to +5.8% YoY with a forecast of +5.0% YoY.

USD/JPY

The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen last Friday, continuing to develop the correctional impulse that formed in the middle of last trading week. The growth of the yen was not prevented by weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. In September, the National Consumer Price Index fell from +0.3% YoY to +0.2% YoY, which turned out to be half the expectations of investors. Corporate Services Price Index slowed down from +0.6% YoY to +0.5% YoY with a forecast of +0.6% YoY. Today the instrument is trading in both directions. Pressure on the yen, in addition to the technical factors of the dollar correction, is put by weak statistics from Japan on exports. In September, export volumes decreased by 5.2% YoY after a decrease of 8.2% YoY last month. Analysts had expected decline by 4.0% YoY only.

Oil

Oil prices showed a decline by the end of the session on Friday, despite the fact that during the day quotations rose moderately. Ambiguous macroeconomic publications from China, which may signal a further slowdown in the global economy, contributed to the development of the "bearish" trend of the instrument. In addition, investors are still disappointed with the results of a new round of trade negotiations between the United States and China. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the parties will continue joint negotiations to sign a final agreement next month. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Report published on Friday also contributed to the development of the "bearish" trend of the instrument. For the week as of October 11, the number of active rigs increased from 712 to 713 units.

Morning Market Review
2019-10-23 08:41 (GMT+2)
EUR/USD

EUR showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, continuing the development of a correctional impetus formed the day before. The pair is trading under the influence of technical factors, while the fundamental background and macroeconomic statistics remain ambiguous. Some support for the euro is provided by the situation around Brexit. The British parliament approved a new version of the agreement, but this does not mean that Britain is ready to leave the EU. Now the parliamentarians need to consider all the amendments put forward earlier, and then the European Commission should ratify the agreement. Today, the pair is declining again. Today's macroeconomic background is rather poor; therefore, the instrument's motion vector is not expected to change much. Analysts expect the release of statistics on German 10-Year Bund Auction and preliminary data on Consumer Confidence in October from the euro area.

GBP/USD

After a confident rally which lasted a week and a half, GBP showed a correctional decline against USD on Tuesday. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was facilitated by technical factors, as well as a marked decrease in optimism regarding Brexit before the current deadline, which is scheduled for October 31. The night before, it became known that the British Parliament expressed fundamental consent with the new version of the deal with the EU, but this cannot be called a full-fledged victory. Boris Johnson urges the Parliament to consider all additional amendments to the agreement within three days to close this issue before the end of the week. Parliament disagreed with Johnson’s schedule, which is likely to lead to a postponement of Brexit deadlines once again with EU consent.

AUD/USD

AUD fell against USD on Tuesday, retreating from updated local highs of September 16. The decrease in the instrument is largely due to the technical factors of USD correction and the semi-empty macroeconomic background of the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate support for AUD is provided by optimism regarding the conclusion of a trade agreement between the United States and China. Donald Trump is still betting on the APEC summit, which will be held in November in Chile. The Chinese side is also optimistic, noting that negotiations are ongoing at the moment.

USD/JPY

USD fell slightly against JPY on Tuesday, correcting after weak growth earlier this week. Japanese markets were closed on Tuesday due to the national holiday, so statistics from the United States were in the spotlight. Existing Home Sales in September decreased by 2.2% MoM after growth of 1.5% MoM a month earlier. Analysts expected a decline of 0.7% MoM. At the same time, Richmond Manufacturing Index in October unexpectedly increased from –9 to 8 points with a forecast of –7 points.

Oil

Oil prices showed moderate growth on Tuesday, responding to optimistic signals on the process of trade negotiations between the US and China. This time, the Chinese side made positive statements. China's Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng noted that the parties managed to achieve significant progress in the negotiations and expressed hope for concluding the agreement soon. More confident growth in quotes yesterday was hampered by the publication of API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report. For the week as of October 18, the indicator increased again by 4.45 million barrels after an increase of 10.50 million barrels over the past period. Today, investors are awaiting the publication of the EIA Crude Oil Inventories.