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Re: InstaForex Analysis

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 09/08/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The GBP/USD market is continuing the horizontal consolidation in a narrow range as it still does not have enough upward momentum to break through the lower trendline boundary located around the level of 1.2270. The momentum indicator remains neutral, which indicates a further possible spike towards the level of 1.1983. The trend is still down and there are no signs of a trend reversal yet, but the choppiness of the price action is still high, so there are no clear trading setups present on this market for now.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2595
WR2 - 1.2485
WR1 - 1.2298
Weekly Pivot - 1.2184
WS1 - 1.1983
WS2 - 1.1676
WS3 - 1.0876

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for the current market conditions is to follow the larger timeframe trend. The larger time frame trend is still down and there are no signs of trend reversal. The key long-term technical support at the level of 1.2420 has been violated and the next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.2100 and 1.1983. All the corrections are just the local correction inside of a downtrend.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190809/analytics5d4d0606b9fd5.jpg

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Best Regards,PR Manager
InstaForex Companies Group

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Forecast for GBP/USD on August 13, 2019

GBP/USD
On Monday, the pound sterling slightly adjusted the top from strong technical support of the range of 1.1986-1.2032, corresponding to the lows of January 2017 and October 2016, and coinciding with the Fibonacci levels of the daily chart of 271.0% and 261.8%.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190813/analytics5d524009debba.png

Convergence on the Marlin oscillator formed on the daily chart. Whether this pattern turns out to be a sign of a deeper correction, to the Fibonacci levels of 238.2%, at the price of 1.2154 or 223.6% at the price of 1.2230, or will it turn out to be a false signal and the price will consolidate at 1.1986, it will become clear either today after the release of data on employment in the UK or tomorrow, with the release of inflation indicators. According to today's data, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%, applications for unemployment benefits in July may be slightly less than in the previous month - 32.0 thousand against 38.0 thousand. Inflation forecasts on Wednesday are negative, in particular CPI may drop from 2.0% y/y to 1.9% y/y.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190813/analytics5d52401ee9f09.png

On the four-hour chart, the price is steadily falling below the blue MACD indicator line, while the Marlin oscillator is in the decline zone. The current situation is neutral, we are waiting for the development of events.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Best regards, PR Manager / Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

Re: InstaForex Analysis

GBP/USD. UK wages up, but the pound is indifferent to statistics

The British currency received little support from macroeconomic reports today. Although the published data on the UK labor market was controversial, traders focused on the positive aspects of the release. This made it possible for the GBP/USD pair to move away from today's lows and develop a minimal, but still a correction.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190814/analytics5d5340839b43d.jpg

But in general, the pair's situation has not changed: the pound is still under strong Brexit pressure, so any more or less large-scale price growth is perceived by the market as an occasion to open short positions. However, the lower limit of the range is very close - at the bottom of the 20th figure. To break through this level, traders need a more compelling reason, while the British are dominated by the usual market concern about the prospects of a "divorce proceedings". In other words, the pound/dollar is trapped in the grip of fundamental and technical factors. On the one hand, there is a strong support level of 1.2000, on the other hand, the lack of powerful information lines, against the background of general nervousness over the upcoming political battles in the House of Commons.

That is why today's release did not cause much excitement among market participants. Although this is partly due to the fact that the published figures are controversial. Thus, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%, although according to general expectations, it should have remained at the same level - 3.8%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits has also increased significantly - by 28 thousand. Although it is worth noting here that according to the consensus forecast, this indicator should have shown a more deplorable result: +42000. Therefore, the real numbers in the end turned out to be much better than expected. But the wage component showed the strongest result. This indicator (excluding bonuses) jumped to an 11-year high (3.9%), confirming the positive trend in recent months. Total pay, which includes bonuses, also pleased investors with a growth of up to 3.7% (a three-year high).

It is worth recalling that the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has repeatedly said that a possible increase in the rate will largely depend on the growth of wages, as this indicator spurs inflation. Of course, in the current environment, it all depends on Brexit's prospects, but if Parliament nevertheless blocks the "hard" scenario, then the likelihood of tightening monetary policy in the first half of next year cannot be ruled out. It is also worth noting that the pound paired with the dollar is now at its lowest values: the relative cheapness of the British currency will also play a role in accelerating inflation in the second half of the year.

Thus, the correction of the GBP/USD pair allows traders to open short positions with a larger price gap in the future. The target of the downward movement is still the 1,2005 mark - this is a psychologically important level of support, to overcome which a powerful information occasion is necessary. Nevertheless, the pound-dollar pair continues to be in a downward trend, so it is advisable to use the pair's growth for a more profitable sale of the British currency.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190814/analytics5d5340983a516.jpg

There is still no consensus among analysts whether the deputies of the House of Commons will be able to block the implementation of the hard Brexit scenario or not. Boris Johnson admitted yesterday that his main opponent, the leader of the Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, plans to drag out the country's exit from the European Union "for many years". Corbyn, in turn, does not hide the fact that he plans to initiate the issue of declaring a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. If the Conservatives cannot then form a government within 14 days, then the country will face early Parliamentary elections. True, Johnson may set the date for elections in November, that is, when the UK is already leaving the EU without any agreement.

Anticipating such a scenario, Johnson's opponents can prevent its implementation. There is another option, which, however, was used only a few times in modern history - for example, during the Second World War and the global economic crisis of the early 30s of the last century (that is, during the Great Depression). It is about creating a "government of national unity", which is formed by members of the temporary inter-party majority. According to analysts, at the moment this is a very unlikely option, but nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out. A politically mottled Parliament can at a critical moment rally and prevent the hard Brexit.

Thus, the outcome of the "Big Political Battle", as journalists have already dubbed the forthcoming confrontation between the prime minister and MPs, is far from a foregone conclusion. Therefore, the pair actually froze within the framework of the 20th figure, while maintaining a bearish potential. All this makes it possible for you to open short positions on the GBP/USD pair with corrective upward pullbacks while aiming for a downward goal in the price area of 1.2010

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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Re: InstaForex Analysis

Washington and Beijing loosened the nuts. A thin world or calm before a storm?

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190815/analytics5d549dc79d8a6.jpg

The unexpected decision of the US administration to delay the introduction of 10% tariffs on a number of goods imported into the United States from China revived the markets. Investors began to buy cheaper assets.

Why did the White House retreat? Maybe the United States really wants to make concessions, or did they just see that Beijing was not afraid of their tariffs? It is enough to recall how China devalued the yuan quite simply in order to smooth out the negative effect of the duties introduced by the US.

It is noteworthy that today the People's Bank of China raised the yuan to the dollar for the first time in two weeks - up to 7.0312. Previously, the regulator continuously depreciated the national currency, as a result of which it updated lows since the spring of 2008.

Judging by the comments of Donald Trump, the US president's decision to postpone the introduction of new Chinese tariffs for a number of positions until December 15 is not a sign of progress in the Washington-Beijing trade negotiations, but rather a result of pressure from US companies.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190815/analytics5d549ddc2a767.jpg

"We are doing this taking into account the upcoming Christmas holidays so that some of the duties do not hit consumers in the United States," he said.

Thus, the head of the White House for the first time admitted that tariffs could harm the US economy.

Goldman Sachs believes that Washington's departure from its original plan to levy duties on all Chinese exports to the United States is a reaction to the fall of US stock indices.

According to Moody's, the recent events should not be seen as a de-escalation of the conflict between the United States and China: this is just a temporary delay.

"D. Trump is afraid to look weak and unable to achieve the goal. In addition, he fears that his chosen strategy of a trade war with China will be ineffective both in the eyes of his own voters and China itself," reports the Chinese publication Global Times.

"The US is making concessions as soon as negotiations between the two countries are on the verge of a complete break. Washington's latest softening said it recognizes that pressure tactics on Beijing aren't working," said Bai Ming, an analyst at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.

However, regardless of the White House's motives, the latest news from the trade front caused a stormy positive reaction from the markets, allowing US indices to win back the decline of the beginning of the week, and the greenback appreciably strengthened against major currencies, especially against the yen. The USD/JPY pair has broken the 106 mark.

Data that was published yesterday also provided some support for the US currency, since the release showed the best (since 2006) two-month increase in core inflation in the United States. In July, the indicator increased by 0.3% in monthly terms and by 2.2% in annual terms. The fact that inflation accelerates after a sluggish start reduces the risks of aggressive easing of the monetary reserve monetary policy. The chances of a September cut in the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at once fell from 25% to less than 10%. The Fed leadership is becoming less likely to further lower interest rates.

Today, the yen against the dollar has returned to growth amid continued geopolitical risks.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190815/analytics5d549e7dd480d.jpg

Despite recent U.S. moves, markets are not waiting for a quick resolution to Washington and Beijing trade disputes, which put pressure on the entire global economy.

Analysts also note the presence of geopolitical tensions in different regions of the world, which supports the demand for the yen.

"Recent news provides more opportunities to strengthen the dollar and weaken the yen, but this does not mean that trade differences are resolved. In addition, there are many geopolitical risks, such as the situation in Hong Kong, the upcoming Brexit and the situation around Iran. Therefore, I do not expect significant demand for risky assets," said Tohru Sasaki, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase Bank.

It is assumed that if China feels D. Trump's weakness and begins to dictate its conditions, then we will again see the corresponding market reaction, the opposite of the one observed yesterday.

As for the main currency pair, it still remains within the wide lateral range.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190815/analytics5d549e904b963.jpg

The gloomy results of recent studies of business sentiment in Germany today have been confirmed by actual economic indicators. According to Destatis, German GDP declined 0.1% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

According to analysts, two negative quarterly indicators in a row will indicate a technical recession in the country, which is the locomotive of the entire European economy. However, the eurozone as a whole remains in relative safety: its GDP continued to grow in the second quarter, although only by 0.2% in quarterly terms.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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Re: InstaForex Analysis

Forecast for EUR/USD on August 16, 2019

EUR/USD The main news yesterday was the release of excellent US retail performance in July. Base sales increased 1.0%, total sales increased 0.7%. An hour later, data on industrial production came out worse than forecast, but the euro could no longer resist a decline. Industrial production in July fell by 0.2%. Euro lost 31 points.

Good US construction data is expected today. The number of bookmarks of new homes in July may grow from 1.25 million to 1.26 million, the indicator of permits for the construction of a new house can show an increase from 1.23 million to 1.27 million. And in the eurozone the trade balance for June, published today may decrease from 20.2 billion euros to 18.7 billion.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190816/analytics5d563e877195c.png

We expect the price to consolidate below the Fibonacci level on the daily chart 123.6% (1.1074). Formally, the underlying target of the Fibonacci level of 138.2% (1.0980) opens, but at the beginning of next week, investors can slow down in anticipation of the publication of the FOMC Fed minutes, which will be on Wednesday.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190816/analytics5d563eacefb31.png

There is a steady decline on the four-chart. Therefore, after consolidating the price below 1.1074, we expect the euro to fall to 1.0980. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Best Regards,PR Manager
InstaForex Companies Group

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Control zones Bitcoin 08/19/19

Bitcoin is trading above the balance level for the second day. This became possible after stopping the fall during the test of monthly control zone in August. The middle course zone was also tested at the end of last week. The likelihood of an increase in the value of bitcoin increases. You should not expect a sharp increase in the price, however, while the balance marks are below the course, you should keep the purchases open at the end of last week. Sales can be closed completely, since the probability of falling below the level of $10,000 in August is 30%.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190819/analytics5d5a134400089.png

Favorable price for the purchase of the instrument will be at any level below $10,000. The first growth goal can be considered at the $10,749 mark. When bitcoin reaches this level, a partial consolidation of purchases and the transfer of the rest to breakeven will be required.

An alternative model has a probability of implementation below 30%, which does not make it possible to enter sales. The instrument is trading near the monthly control zone. This makes a further decline unlikely. If the decline occurs below $10,000, then the probability of a return to this mark in August will be at 70%, and in case of exit and closing of the month's trading below this level, the probability will increase to 90%.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190819/analytics5d5a135928f10.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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Re: InstaForex Analysis

Control zones GBPUSD 08/20/19

Today's plan is to bring purchases previously opened to WCZ 1/2 1.2199-1.2182. When testing the zone, consolidating part of the position will be required, and the rest should be brought to breakeven. The main pattern for entering the position will be the "false breakdown" of yesterday's high after the WCZ 1/2 test. If this happens, you must completely eliminate the purchase and enter a short position. The potential fall can reach a monthly low.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190820/analytics5d5b61332c060.png

Work in the upward direction is still a priority. Until WCZ 1/2 has been tested, another entry into purchases is possible in case of a "false breakdown" of yesterday's low. If this happens, there will be an opportunity to enter with a favorable risk to profit ratio.

An alternative model will be developed if the pair overcomes the WCZ 1/2, and the closure of today's US session occurs above the zone. This will indicate the completion of the downward medium-term cycle and the transition to the phase of the upward impulse.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190820/analytics5d5b61489769e.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Best regards, PR Manager / Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Will the Fed limit itself to one rate cut this year? The pound will remain volatile in the near future

The pound fell in the morning following the release of a report on UK public sector borrowing, while the euro continued to trade in a narrow side channel against the US dollar in anticipation of the July Federal Reserve minutes

The publication of the minutes will show how the committee looks at a further cut in interest rates this year, and to what level the rate can be reduced.

This week, a number of Fed leaders have already expressed their views, but it is premature to draw any conclusions. Let me remind you during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which was held on July 30-31, they decided to lower the interest rate by a quarter point, although some economists suggested that the Fed would lower rates immediately by half a percent. This was the first drop in more than 10 years.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190822/analytics5d5dd3144263d.jpg

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that this decrease was purely corrective in the middle of the cycle, and it would not be entirely correct to count on a long reduction cycle in the future. Much will depend on the data on the economy that will come in the 3rd quarter of this year. So far, the only thing that could push the issue of lowering the rate by another quarter of a percentage point into consideration is the aggravation of the trade war between the United States and China, which is now at an impasse. Let me remind you that the new trade duties will come into force on September 1 of this year. In addition, very low inflation continues to be a problem for the Fed.

Given the fact that the unemployment rate in the US is at a record low and household wages increase without creating additional inflationary pressure, the Fed is just thinking about the risks of deflation, which many Asian countries suffer from.

Do not forget about the constant criticism of the work of the committee by Donald Trump, who "hung all the dogs" on the current Fed chairman Jerome Powell for what he delays in lowering rates and resuming the asset purchase program. By the way, the eurozone and the European Central Bank may return to such a program in the near future, which will further strengthen the US dollar against a number of risky assets and create additional problems for the export of American goods. In any case, Powell is still fighting off all threats from the US president, adhering to the neutrality that is so cared for within the Federal Reserve.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it has not changed at all. Bears will attempt to update last week's lows with a test of support levels of 1.1060 and 1.1030. If bulls make an attempt to build an upward correction in a pair, then it is best to consider short positions in the trading instrument from the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.1130. A larger resistance level is the area of 1.1160.

GBPUSD

The British pound slightly fell against the US dollar after the release of the report on net borrowing in the UK public sector. According to data in July this year, borrowing fell by 1.3 billion pounds after a larger reduction of 3.5 billion pounds a year ago. Net public sector demand for cash in the UK in July fell by 14.8 billion pounds against 17.6 billion pounds a year ago. All this suggests that the situation with Brexit, although not so brightly, continues to affect macroeconomic indicators in various fields, which negatively affects the overall economic indicator.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190822/analytics5d5dd3286044c.png

In any case, the pound's further movement as a whole, like this whole year, will continue to be based on rumors and rebuttals from Brexit news, which exacerbates the overall picture and exposes the pound to excessive volatility.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the upward trend is limited by the resistance of 1.2175, a breakthrough of which will build a new wave of growth and lead to the renewal of highs in the areas of 1.2220 and 1.2270. The medium-term boundary of the downward channel is above this range and it would be impossible to go beyond it without a positive outcome of the situation with Brexit.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

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Re: InstaForex Analysis

GBP/USD. Light at the end of the tunnel: Merkel provoked the growth of the British currency

The pound paired with the dollar today updated three-week highs, reaching the middle of the 22nd figure. The fundamental picture of today did not portend such price leaps: the European voyage of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was more of a formal nature, and Thursday's economic calendar for the GBP/USD pair is completely empty. Nevertheless, bulls of the pair found a reason for the upward impulse - and this reason was provided to them by none other than German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190823/analytics5d5f1e04978e1.jpg

Looking ahead, it is worth noting that the pound is now growing more on emotions - traders of the pair have been trading in constant fear and pessimism about the Brexit prospects for too long. Therefore, when among the gloomy news background a ghostly, but still "light at the end of the tunnel" had appeared, the pound's reaction was not long in coming. Moreover, at the beginning of today the head of the German government met her colleague from Britain with rather harsh rhetoric. She stated that "Britain has 30 days to resolve the Brexit issue to find an alternative to backstop." French President Emmanuel Macron, in turn, noted that there is no more time for additional negotiations on a new agreement - the parties need to build on the main positions of the agreements already reached. Boris Johnson, in his peculiar manner, "accepted the challenge" of Berlin and said that he would spend 30 days allotted to him to convince the EU that there was a viable alternative to the "back-up" mechanism.

This rhetoric did not surprise, but did not upset, investors: even on the eve of Johnson's visit, it became clear that the parties would defend their positions. Earlier this week, the British prime minister sent a written appeal to the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk, with a request to review the deal, primarily regarding the prospects for the Irish border. Brussels rejected the offer and lamented that London did not offer constructive ideas for alternatives to backstop.

In other words, traders were prepared for the fact that the parties at the meeting would only repeat the theses already voiced and disperse "in the corners of the ring" without any result. However, Angela Merkel still went beyond investors' expectations: she announced that London and Brussels will try to create a system that, firstly, preserves the terms of the Belfast Agreement, and secondly, retains Northern Ireland's access to the single EU market. In other words, we are talking about the notorious alternative to the backstop mechanism. The German chancellor emphasized that the parties will try to find a compromise solution in a relatively short time, that is, until October 31. Summing up, Merkel emphasized that London "can still solve the crisis."

In my opinion, the German Chancellor accidentally remembered the Belfast Agreement - after all, the issue of the Irish border is considered not only in terms of economic and customs barriers. Let me remind you that for half a century, there has been a bloody ethnopolitical conflict on the island of Ireland - the rebel forces sought the withdrawal of Northern Ireland from the UK with the subsequent accession to the Republic of Ireland. According to various estimates, about four thousand people died during the long-running conflict. A ceasefire was reached only in 1998, when the parties entered into the aforementioned "Belfast Agreement". The main points of this agreement state that the Northern Irish separatists renounce their territorial claims, and London, in turn, introduces local government and Parliamentarism in this region.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190823/analytics5d5f1e181fc82.jpg

In addition, the agreement reached eliminated the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and since then there has been a special economic zone regime. If London upsets this fragile balance that has been successfully working over the past 20 years, Britain could return to the chaos of political confrontation with the separatist forces of Northern Ireland. In particular, last year the Northern Irish party Sinn Fein announced that it was initiating a new referendum on accession to the Republic of Ireland. Under the conditions of a hard Brexit, taking into account possible economic losses and the effect of a tight border, the outcome of such a referendum is not difficult to predict.

Obviously, both London and Brussels are well aware of the risks they face. That is why the current (albeit symbolic) step of Merkel allowed the pound to demonstrate a significant correction throughout the market, including paired with the dollar. However, long positions on the GBP/USD pair currently look risky - after all, we must not forget that the parties only promised to "consider various options". And it is far from a fact that the proposed options will ultimately be agreed/approved by Johnson, the European Union and, ultimately, by the deputies of the House of Commons. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, the spring of nervousness will continue to contract to a certain limit, putting pressure on the foot. But if the parties still find a compromise and the likelihood of a deal will increase again, this "spring" will fire an impulsive price increase, and marks 1.25-1.27 will not be any limit.

Analysis are provided byInstaForex.

Best regards, PR Manager / Learn more about InstaForex Company at http://instaforex.com

Re: InstaForex Analysis

The trade war between China and the United States is in full swing and could lead to a new Fed rate cut

Recently, Donald Trump decided to increase trade duties on a group of goods totaling about $ 300 billion to 15%, which was previously assumed that it would be 10%. These duties will be effective from September 2019. Also, duties will be increased not by 25%, but by 30%, for a group of goods worth $ 250 billion from October 1. This was a response to China's imposition of $ 75 billion in fees, which will be in effect from September 1 to December 15. Beijing's move was also a response to Trump's previously imposed duties. In general, a chain reaction is started. At the same time, the parties continue to report that negotiations are ongoing and from time to time they signal a certain progress that for some reason no one is watching. However, the intensity of trade relations between China and the States is clearly visible, which leads to a slowdown in the global economy, as well as the economies of the States themselves and China. Naturally, not without another message on Twitter from Trump. According to the president of the United States, China should not have introduced new duties, but now, it has run into an increase in duties from the States.

In addition, Donald Trump once again "drove" under the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, writing on Twitter that "he does not know who the worst enemy of America is, Xi Jingping or Jerome Powell." A hint, of course, of Powell's reluctance to take and reduce the rate immediately by 100 points, as Trump wants. A little later, there was a loud statement that China had stolen billions or even trillions of dollars of intellectual property from America for years and was going to continue this activity. Trump said that "it's time to put an end to this." The US president also appealed to American companies having production facilities in China with an appeal to look for an alternative as soon as possible, and even better to return to America. The fact that the production of any product in America is more expensive than in China several times, and accordingly, the price of many goods now produced in China will increase multiple times if production is transferred to the States, Trump does not care. End consumers will pay, and the company will suffer losses, sales of which, of course, will fall due to price growth and reduced demand. Meanwhile, Trump will receive new tax revenues, or not Trump, but the new US President, whose elections will be held in 2020. It is precisely the second term of Trump's presidency that now raises a huge number of questions. China openly expects Trump to lose the election. The longer the trade war with China lasts, the worse America's economy feels, and the better ordinary citizens feel the recession, the less chance that Trump will be re-elected. Even if Trump is right and "China has profited from America for years," the electorate is primarily interested in its own welfare, prices in stores, and the lack of a deficit in the goods it needs. Under Trump, all Chinese products have risen in price, while American or European counterparts are much more expensive. If a trade war also begins with the European Union, then the Americans, who are big fans of the European automobile industry, will also experience a rise in prices for European cars. In this case, it is unlikely that Trump's fans will increase in the election. And, of course, all this will have a negative impact on the US dollar.

Analysis are provided by InstaForex

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Re: InstaForex Analysis

TForecast for GBP / USD pair on August 28, 2019

GBP / USD pair
Yesterday, the growth of the pound negates the fall of Monday. However, on the daily chart, it met insurmountable resistance of the indicator line of the balance line (red), which is currently slightly below the indicator line of the MACD trend line (blue).

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190828/analytics5d65f09deaef7.png

A double divergence has already formed on the four-hour chart. The reversal signal of the Marlin oscillator has amplified while the market is still "hot". The signal line of the oscillator is still in the growth zone and in fact, the price is higher than all indicator lines. On the daily chart, the price can gather strength and go on the assault to the second target of 1.2350/81. To fix the primary reversal signals, it is necessary to fix the price below the minimum of yesterday, which will also correspond to the price drift under the embedded line of the price channel on the daily chart. The MACD line of four-hour scale also tends to be at this level. Probably, a key level is being formed here. In case of a breakout, you should wait before sales.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190828/analytics5d65f0ccbaa15.png

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Re: InstaForex Analysis

Britain on the verge of a constitutional crisis

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190828/analytics5d664012c10dc.jpg

The pound fell sharply by 100 points on the news that Boris Johnson could try to interrupt parliament for a month - from September 11 to October 14 - so that Parliament could not stop Johnson from withdrawing Britain out of the EU without an agreement.

This is a constitutional crisis. The queen has such a right to suspend the work of the parliament, at the proposal of the prime minister. However, such an action on this occasion is a clear crisis. Given the minimal majority of conservatives in parliament - it is very likely - to have a political crisis and new elections.

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Re: InstaForex Analysis

Control zones AUDUSD 09/02/19

The August movement is a complex impulse structure. At the beginning of last week, there was consolidation above WCZ 1/2, which indicates an upward priority. Today, the WCZ 1/2 0.6723-0.6716 test is taking place again. Purchases from this zone are profitable, since the growth target continues to be the weekly control zone 0.6838-0.6825.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190902/analytics5d6c8297e3e73.png

The flat movement of August implies the continuation of work from monthly extremes, so they should be taken into account in trading plans. To break the ascending structure, it will be necessary to close today's trading below 0.6716. This will make it possible to resume work in a downward direction. The first goal of the fall will be the low of August.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190902/analytics5d6c82adc478e.png

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Weekly market review

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Greetings, dear traders! Congratulations to everyone on the beginning of autumn and, hopefully, on the increase in volatility associated with the end of the holiday period, including the bank traders, and the Forex market, as you know, is the interbank market, and the private traders who are here – random people.

The first week of autumn is an important trading period associated with a change in order placements in anticipation of non-farm payrolls, and after them. Often, it is the "nanoc" that one ends and other tendencies of instruments related to the American dollar begin. Today, Monday, according to most professional traders, is the worst time to open new trading positions and decide on a change in trading trends. Moreover, it is also today, September 2, 2019 - is a holiday in the USA and Canada - Labor Day. Therefore, let us congratulate the United States labor teams on this holiday!

For us, this means that trading during this evening will take place in narrow ranges and it is not worth waiting for super-movements from the markets today. Only "Donald Trump" can break the "trade silence" with his Twitter. Sometimes, it seems to me that Donald is an avid trader who "rules" his unprofitable positions with his own, often diametrically opposite, statements on the network.

Today, the main trading idea related to the American dollar for me is to strengthen the dollar in USD/JPY and GBP/USD, which gave last week. I also have very interesting ideas on certain crosses, which will be published soon.

What to do for traders in a period of low volatility? Of course, developing trading skills in the "strategy tester", as well as working on the analysis of profitable / unprofitable positions of the last week, in order to understand - how you earn and how much you lose and at what volumes and at what time you have it is obtained most efficiently. Good luck in trading! And see you at the evening reviews of cross-courses!

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 04/09/2019

Technical Market Overview:

The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the low at the level of 1.0926, broke above the technical resistance at the level of 1.0964 and made a local high at the level of 1.0979. The momentum is off the negative area and the stochastic is off the oversold territory. The next target for the local pull-back or correction is seen at the level of 1.0997. Nevertheless, if bears continue to make pressure on the market, the next target for them is seen at the level of 1.0908, which is technical support at the weekly time frame.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1285
WR2 - 1.1224
WR1 - 1.1084
Weekly Pivot Point - 1.1025
WS1 - 1.0886
WS2 - 1.0818
WS3 - 1.0681

Trading Recommendations:

The best strategy for current market conditions is to trade with the larger timeframe trend, which is down. All upward moves will be treated as local corrections in the downtrend. The downtrend is valid as long as it is terminated or the level of 1.1445 clearly violated. There is an Ending Diagonal price pattern visible on the larget timeframes that indicate a possible downtrend termination soon. The key short-term levels are technical support at the level of 1.0814 and the technical resistance at the level of 1.1250.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190904/analytics5d6f4bc31783f.jpg

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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InstaForex Companies Group

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Golden cosmos

Good evening, dear traders. As promised, here's the evening forecast for gold. Sorry, was not able to publish it in the morning, because it has already started to work.

The trade wars drove gold to an incredible $ 1,550 per troy ounce. This is the largest gold trend. for many years! Over the past year, gold has passed a record of 36,000p and continues to storm the high, knocking out the stops of medium-term sellers. And just yesterday, according to perhaps the most effective Price Action trading strategy, a pattern called "daily absorption in the trend" has appeared - which speaks of an ongoing trend and after which it is recommended to buy. Today, to the American session, there was a magnificent rollback, allowing you to go into longs at the best price.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190905/analytics5d704e680591f.png

On the other hand, sellers who have been selling gold from highs for two weeks now have to hide their risks only for one single extreme - this year's high - quotation 1554. Although, gold has not yet risen above. This is a trap that will be slammed in the near future and trap sellers.

I propose to take a closer look from the rollbacks to the longs - with a take on updating 1554 and higher. Often breakdowns of weekly extremes for gold are very volatile - and give a positive slippage, on which you can earn good profit. This is the first part of the plan.

The second part is for those traders who are buying in a large amount (scalpers). The idea is very simple and is to work after the breakdown of 1554, which for example to 1560-1570, and then to return to the broken level of 1554. This is an old scalping technique in the overbought market to work on the consolidations of large buyers after the breakdown of key extremes. It is due to this that the price decline to a broken level, which becomes support.

Be that as it may, you can earn in both cases.

I wish you success in trading and follow the policy of money management!

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Taking profit on USD/JPY and GOLD

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190906/analytics5d71a261679b1.png

This is not a random number, because the method of "hunting for stops" involves work tied to the mistakes of bank traders. The average amount of stops which makes these 100p. And you can easily check it by looking at the open positions of banks online right now. Thus, we still have positions in crosses - which are also all in the "plus".

In addition, fix part of the profit from the position on gold left overnight + 430p, and hold the last part at the level of 1500:

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190905/analytics5d71254d9e3ed.png

Tomorrow is an important day for currency traders. I have noticed many times that if you give out before non-game plus - you have to leave, because the news is extremely unpredictable. Therefore, I prefer to trade after news trends, and for this, you need to have patience. The best choice for traders to trade on the USD news (if you are not a stop hunter) is to sit them in crosses. And fortunately, our diversification tactics make this easy to do. We continue to hold positive positions on AUD/CHF or NZD/CHF according to the recommendations given earlier.

Good luck in the trading and see you at the next reviews!

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 10, 2019

EUR/USD

On Monday, the euro made another attempt to work out the target level of 1.1073 - the Fibonacci level of 123.6%, but this time stopped short of positive news about the growth of Germany's trade balance in July from 18.0 billion euros to 20.2 billion and ideas of Germany to establish a parallel state structure for attracting investment through increased public debt, which turned out to be insufficient.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190910/analytics5d772ea6daacb.png

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin Oscillator shows the intention of a reversal down from the boundary with the growth territory. This is the first, but weak and the only sign of a possible price reversal down, there are no others even on the four-hour chart.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190910/analytics5d772ebc89c29.png

On H4, the price develops above the indicator lines of balance and MACD. Marlin is also in the upward trend zone. If the price consolidates above the level of 1.1073, growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% is possible at the price of 1.1157. The development of the downward trend is possible after the price goes below the MACD line on H4 (1.1006) and under the Fibonacci level of 138.2% at the price of 1.0986. In this case, the target level is the Fibonacci level of 161.8% at the price of 1.0844.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Best Regards,PR Manager
InstaForex Companies Group

Re: InstaForex Analysis

Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 11, 2019

AUD / USD pair
In the last two days, the Australian dollar has fixed above both lines of the price channels (red and blue) for the weekly and monthly scales. The price is also higher than the balance lines and MACD daily chart. The nearest target is open to July 10 minimum at 0.691. Subsequent consolidation above a new level opens the second target of 0.6962, which is the upper border of the blue (weekly) price channel.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190911/analytics5d7862e48067c.png

For the development of a falling scenario, the price should fall below the support of the MACD line on the four-hour chart at 0.6815. Under this condition, the downward target below opens to 0.6685, which is the embedded line of the red (monthly) price channel.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190911/analytics5d7862faab580.png

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Gold: a great opportunity to buy at the level of $1480-50

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According to Bart Melek, the head of TD Securities, the strengthening of the dollar, the growth of the value of US stocks and bond yields reflected on the prospects for gold and long positions in the asset. "The yellow metal fell to just below $1,500 an ounce at the beginning of the week, and we think that the price could move to the support level between $1,480–50 if the Fed doesn't weaken the policy at the next meeting," Meleka said. At this stage, the gold market believes that the US central bank will keep rates at the current level without any unconditional commitments to aggressively lower rates in the future. "In our opinion, no matter what central banks do over the next few months, the global economy will decline due to weaker trading activity amid a trade war between the US and China."

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190912/analytics5d798e0fa1591.jpg

The largest world markets are under attack. Germany is showing weakness, China continues to disappoint with its performance, and there are signs that the US economy is also slowing. Given these facts and that monetary policy is not very productive, the projected decline in the price of gold should be considered as an excellent buying opportunity, since central banks need to be aggressive in their actions in order to avoid a sharp drop in global activity next year.

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EUR/USD. "Bear feast" cancelled: the ECB disappointed sellers of the pair

The proposition "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" summed up many EUR/USD traders today. It turned out the other way around: over the past few days, the pair has been selling on rumors of a large-scale easing of the ECB's monetary policy, and after the news, the euro then updated its high of the day and week. This situation confirms another notorious fact: anything can happen in the market, and even the most recognized algorithms sometimes fail.

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However, so far it is only a short-term reaction of traders. There is no talk of any turning point in the trend, since the price has remained in the same positions as all previous days. If you do not take into account the 150-point price fluctuation, then we can say that the September meeting of the ECB did not affect the value of the pair. Of course, this fact looks anomalous, since all the decisions and theses voiced at today's meeting were against the euro. Perhaps, with one exception: Mario Draghi did not announce a further reduction in the interest rate. In other words, the entourage of previous events played a key role today. Representatives of the ECB, all kinds of experts, analysts, currency strategists and the successor of Mario Draghi - Christine Lagarde - all of them have been aggravating the situation for several weeks, preparing the market for large-scale easing of monetary policy parameters.

The European Central Bank as a whole met the expectations of the market by lowering the interest rate by 0.1% and announcing the resumption of QE from November 1 by 2.6 trillion euros with a monthly volume of 20 billion euros. But, as you know, "appetite comes with eating": market participants were ready for more drastic measures (lowering rates to -0.60%, and QE with a monthly volume of 40-50 billion). At least on the eve of today's meeting, precisely these values were discussed among experts (which, in fact, was responsible for the downward impulse of EUR/USD at the beginning of this week). Therefore, when the central bank announced its decision, the pair fell to the bottom of the 9th figure on emotions. Then the price bounced back - when it became clear that the regulator, firstly, didn't use the arsenal of available tools "to the fullest", and secondly, it made it clear that it did not intend to take the interest rate further into the negative area for the foreseeable future.

A similar situation was seen in December 2015. Back then, the European regulator abandoned the idea of using shock therapy, focusing on the option of a gradual and longer-term effect. In exactly the same way as now, four years ago, everyone was expecting and discussing the rate reduction during the previous several months. They also spoke with the same confidence about the expansion of the stimulating program: opinions differed only with regard to the size of the increase. However, the regulator only reduced the rate and did not resort to large-scale integrated measures. Moreover, Draghi made it clear that the ECB will not return to the issue of easing monetary policy for at least several months, giving the European economy time to recover. After this meeting, the EUR/USD pair rebounded and strengthened by 300 points, although many predicted the euro collapse.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190913/analytics5d7ad69b198da.jpg

Now the situation is somewhat different. On the one hand, Mario Draghi is unlikely to initiate and support the issue of further easing of monetary policy - at least until November. But his cadence ends in the last month of autumn, so the ECB's further steps will largely depend on Lagarde, who has already announced that the monetary policy is adaptive "in the foreseeable future", and the nature of the regulator's further actions will depend on the conditions of the financial market . She also said that she "does not believe" that the central bank has set an effective lower limit for interest rates. In other words, the future head of the ECB fairly transparently hinted at an acceptable backlash in this matter. This means that, hypothetically, the European regulator may not be limited to one round of lowering rates further into the negative area.

That is why the reaction of the EUR/USD bulls to the results of the September meeting is relatively limited. I can assume that if it were not for the "Lagarde factor", then the pair would be at least in the middle of the 11th figure, and maybe it would test more significant price heights. But for now, EUR/USD is trying to overcome only the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, which corresponds to the mark of 1.1060. If the bulls consolidate on this target, then the price will be the second resistance level of 1.1150 - this is the upper line of Bollinger Bands, which coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe. In general, the next critical "test" for the pair will take place next week, when the September meeting of the Federal Reserve will take place. If the members of the US regulator, in contrast to the ECB, exceed the "dovish" expectations of investors, then the large-scale correction will be continued - up to 12-13 figures.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on September 16, 2019

EUR/USD

On Friday and this Monday morning, the euro lingered on the resistance of the balance line and the Fibonacci level of 123.6% of the daily scale. The euro is still calm about the price growth of oil and gold this morning due to an attack by drones on oil rigs in Saudi Arabia. Oil has jumped 9.56% since the opening of the session. According to media reports, oil production in this country fell by 50%, which seems unlikely. Nevertheless, an impetus has been set, and with the increase in oil prices, the euro is likely to continue to grow, the target of which will be the area where the line of the price channel, the Fibonacci level is 110.0% and the MACD line at the price of 1.1152.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190916/analytics5d7f12fe731e7.png

On a four-hour chart, the price is supported by the balance line (indicator red), the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is in the growth zone. In the framework of the main increasing scenario, the euro may drop, but not lower than the support of the MACD line on H4 (1.1023). Leaving below opens an alternative scenario with the prospect of a decline to 1.0926.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190916/analytics5d7f131441bce.png

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Best Regards,PR Manager
InstaForex Companies Group

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GBP/USD: the pound still hopes that the fog around Brexit will clear up

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Over the past week, the pound has strengthened against the US dollar by almost 1.2% amid expectations that London and Brussels may soften their position on Brexit.

On Sunday, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, said that he was still focused on concluding a deal with the European Union under the terms of the country's withdrawal from the bloc.

"If we can make enough progress over the next few days, I intend to go to the EU summit on October 17 and conclude an agreement that will protect the interests of business and citizens both on both sides of the English channel and on both sides of the border in Ireland. I believe that we can do this, and I believe that such an agreement meets the interests of not only the UK, but also our European partners," said B. Johnson.

At the same time, he continues to insist that he will not ask the EU to provide another delay for Brexit.

In turn, EU negotiator Michel Barnier said that there are no reasons for optimism about Brexit.

"The UK has not provided any alternative proposals on the Irish border for a month and a half of the functioning of the new government and half a year from the moment when the bill, agreed with the 27 EU members, entered the British Parliament, but was never ratified by it. In the coming weeks, we should see whether the government of B. Johnson is able to make any proposals that have legal force," M. Barnier said.

Recall that in Britain the law adopted by the country's Parliament came into force, according to which the government is obliged to ask the EU for a new deferral of Brexit if London and Brussels do not agree on a new agreement on withdrawal by October 19.

B. Johnson intends to ignore the new law and is ready to fight for it in the British courts.

Today, the British Prime Minister met with the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in Luxembourg.

"The leaders agreed on the need to negotiate more intensively on Brexit and start holding daily meetings of representatives of the parties. An agreement was also reached on political negotiations between EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and Brexit Minister Stephen Barclay. The dialogue between president Juncker and Prime Minister Johnson will also continue," the office of the head of the British government said in a statement.

It is assumed that if the parties manage to reach a compromise, then the GBP/USD pair may well rise to the level of 1.2700.

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Oil flies into the stratosphere

Attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and a downed American drone are children's toys compared to the attack on Abqaiq, the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, through which about 7 million b/d passes. Brent and WTI have responded with the largest daily rally in history, and it cannot be said that investors have calmed down. The attack can easily be repeated, the US war with Iran is more real than ever, and who, interestingly, in such circumstances will risk actively selling black gold?

An armed attack turned off 5.7 million bpd from the game, which is about 5% of global production. Although Riyadh is trying in every possible way to convince investors that everything is under control and within a day, about a third of the losses in black gold production have already been restored, insider Bloomberg says something else. According to at least four competent sources, the restoration is likely to drag on from a few weeks to several months, and a reduction in global production will provide all possible assistance to the Brent and WTI bulls. Everyone is waiting for comments from Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, but the very figure of this man deserves close attention.

After a member of the royal family became the Minister of Energy for the first time in history, many suspected that something was wrong. Prices rose by leaps and bounds, and the attack on Abqaiq is perceived as a bolt from the blue, but only by a majority. When a crime occurs, one always wonders, "who benefits?" For a balanced budget, Saudi Arabia needed oil at $80 per barrel, but before the appointment of Abdulaziz bin Salman as minister, there were few reasons for a rapid rally. Reducing OPEC production did not help: the Americans were actively increasing production, and China was cutting demand. For a sharp rise in prices, force majeure was needed, and in an amazing way it became a reality.

One-day oil jumps

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190918/analytics5d816e11c694f.jpg

According to Bloomberg, the maximum reserve capacity that can be put into production in the coming weeks is 3.9 million bpd. Even if Riyadh recovers a third of the losses from 5.7 million bpd, there will be a reduction in production. And with it, the growth of Brent and WTI quotes. As for Saudi Arabia, it is in its interest to spread rumors about a slow return to previous levels and the disruption of the October supplies, as well as to call other OPEC members to implement Vienna agreements, which the Saudis do.

At the same time, the issue of the United States and Iran's trade war, which the United States accused of organizing the attack on Abqaiq, does not come up on the agenda. Tehran denies any involvement, and based on the principle "who needed it most", it is very likely that it really has nothing to do with it.

Technically, after completing the targeting on the Bat (113%) and Wolfe Waves patterns, the risks of a pullback increased to the levels of 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 4-5. End of support at $66.4 and $64.4 per barrel will attract new buyers to the market.

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Forecast for AUD / USD pair on September 19, 2019

AUD / USD pair

The Australian dollar successfully broke the support area, consisting of two lines - balance and MACD of price channels and indicator lines. Moreover, the breakthrough occurred today on quite good employment data. The growth of new jobs amounted to 34.7 thousand against the expectation of 10.0 thousand and the share of the economically active population increased from 66.1% to 66.2%. Against this background, the level rose slightly to 5.3% from 5.2%, which is a fairly strong sign of the market's intention to sell the AUD/USD pair at an accelerated pace.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190919/analytics5d82f7f074e25.png

The Immediate target of 0.6678 at the support line for the red price channel coincides with the low of August 7 that can be reached in three days. Then, the blue channel comes into play with support in the region of 0.6605. On the four-hour chart, the price is in free fall and there are no signs of a stop in the correction.

https://forex-images.ifxdb.com/userfiles/20190919/analytics5d82f80c4d38f.png

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