LiteForex. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, having corrected upwards after a 6-day downward rally, which led to the update of the local lows of March 7. EUR was supported by macroeconomic data from the Eurozone published on Wednesday. The Markit Services PMI in March rose from 52.8 to 53.3 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 52.7 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI for the same period decreased from 51.9 to 51.6 points, which nevertheless turned out to be better than the forecast of 51.3 points. Retail sales in the Eurozone in February showed an increase of 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, which is higher than market expectations (0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY). In turn, the dollar reacted negatively to the release of the ADP report on employment. According to it, in March the figure increased by only 129K against the expected growth of 170K and growth of 198K last month. Today, traders are focused on the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, updating local highs of March 28. Despite the serious problems around the Brexit process, investors are optimistic about the prospects for a new delay. Yesterday, Teresa May announced her readiness to hold a series of negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to agree on a joint action plan. This decision has already caused criticism from the Conservative party members, which could potentially lead to an exacerbation of the political situation. However, May now cares only about the Brexit, and she is trying hard to prevent the country from leaving without a deal. Yesterday, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the EU would not agree to a new postponement for the UK and that the agreement must be approved by April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed an increase against the US dollar on April 3, offsetting the decrease in the instrument the day before. Growth was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as improved prospects for concluding the US-China trade agreement. Retail sales in Australia in February showed a growth of 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 0.2% MoM. AUD was supported by an unexpected increase in the trade surplus. In February, it reached 4.801 billion Australian dollars against the previous 4.351 billion. Analysts had expected a decline to 3.800 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow uncertainly against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of March 20. The development of "bullish" dynamics in the instrument is supported by a moderate increase in investor interest in risk amid optimistic prospects for concluding the US-China trade deal. The macroeconomic background from the United States is often quite weak, but Japan cannot boast of strong publications. Markit Services PMI was published yesterday. In March, the indicator fell stronger than forecast, from 52.3 to 52.0 points. Disappointing statistics on employment in the private sector and business activity indices came from the USA. The ISM Services index in March fell from 59.7 to 56.1 points, while the forecast was 58.0 points. A similar index from Markit slowed down from 56.0 to 55.3 points, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 54.8 points.

Oil

Oil prices slightly corrected on Wednesday, departing from local maxima amid the publication of the report of the US Department of Energy. According to it, the US crude oil and petroleum product inventories for the week of March 29 rose from 2.800 million barrels to 7.238 million, while analysts expected a decline by about 0.5 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.

LiteForex. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed strong growth against the US dollar on Wednesday, having corrected upwards after a 6-day downward rally, which led to the update of the local lows of March 7. EUR was supported by macroeconomic data from the Eurozone published on Wednesday. The Markit Services PMI in March rose from 52.8 to 53.3 points, while the forecast was for a decline to 52.7 points. The composite Manufacturing PMI for the same period decreased from 51.9 to 51.6 points, which nevertheless turned out to be better than the forecast of 51.3 points. Retail sales in the Eurozone in February showed an increase of 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, which is higher than market expectations (0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY). In turn, the dollar reacted negatively to the release of the ADP report on employment. According to it, in March the figure increased by only 129K against the expected growth of 170K and growth of 198K last month. Today, traders are focused on the publication of the minutes of the last ECB meeting on monetary policy.

GBP/USD

The British pound is trading upwards, updating local highs of March 28. Despite the serious problems around the Brexit process, investors are optimistic about the prospects for a new delay. Yesterday, Teresa May announced her readiness to hold a series of negotiations with the opposition Labor Party to agree on a joint action plan. This decision has already caused criticism from the Conservative party members, which could potentially lead to an exacerbation of the political situation. However, May now cares only about the Brexit, and she is trying hard to prevent the country from leaving without a deal. Yesterday, the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that the EU would not agree to a new postponement for the UK and that the agreement must be approved by April 12.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed an increase against the US dollar on April 3, offsetting the decrease in the instrument the day before. Growth was supported by strong macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as improved prospects for concluding the US-China trade agreement. Retail sales in Australia in February showed a growth of 0.8% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting growth of 0.2% MoM. AUD was supported by an unexpected increase in the trade surplus. In February, it reached 4.801 billion Australian dollars against the previous 4.351 billion. Analysts had expected a decline to 3.800 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to grow uncertainly against the Japanese yen, updating local highs of March 20. The development of "bullish" dynamics in the instrument is supported by a moderate increase in investor interest in risk amid optimistic prospects for concluding the US-China trade deal. The macroeconomic background from the United States is often quite weak, but Japan cannot boast of strong publications. Markit Services PMI was published yesterday. In March, the indicator fell stronger than forecast, from 52.3 to 52.0 points. Disappointing statistics on employment in the private sector and business activity indices came from the USA. The ISM Services index in March fell from 59.7 to 56.1 points, while the forecast was 58.0 points. A similar index from Markit slowed down from 56.0 to 55.3 points, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than the forecast of 54.8 points.

Oil

Oil prices slightly corrected on Wednesday, departing from local maxima amid the publication of the report of the US Department of Energy. According to it, the US crude oil and petroleum product inventories for the week of March 29 rose from 2.800 million barrels to 7.238 million, while analysts expected a decline by about 0.5 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a decline against the US dollar on Tuesday, retreating from local highs of March 27. The reason for the emergence of negative dynamics were the statements of US President Donald Trump about the readiness to impose duties on goods from the EU worth USD 11 billion. In his speech, Trump referred to the WTO report, according to which European Union subsidies to Airbus caused damage to the US economy. Immediately after the speech, it became known that the European Commission had begun to develop a response, which may cause a new trade war. The US trade dispute with China has not yet been crowned with the signing of a final agreement, but, according to Trump's assurances, this may take place by the end of April. Today, the euro is trading in both directions, and investors are awaiting the publication of the ECB's interest rate decision with the accompanying press conference of Mario Draghi. Also, on Wednesday, an extraordinary EU summit on Brexit will be held.

GBP/USD

The pound is trading ambiguously against the US dollar, remaining close to the level of 1.3000. Investors are waiting for a resolution of the impasse with Brexit on Wednesday, at an EU summit devoted entirely to this problem. The UK will receive a delay either until June 30, as requested by Teresa May, or till the end of the year, as suggested by the head of the European Council, Donald Tusk. Also on Wednesday, a block of interesting macroeconomic statistics is expected, namely data on industrial output, the index of services, and the growth rate of the UK economy in February (on a monthly basis).

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar showed a decline against the US on Tuesday, despite the fact that during the day updated local maxima of March 21. Moderate support was provided by strong data on the housing market. Investment loans for the construction of new homes in February rose by 2.6% MoM after declining by 2.3% MoM last month. The volume of mortgage loans issued in February rose by 2.0% MoM, contrary to forecasts of a decline by 2.0% MoM. Today, AUD began with a decline but managed to recover after the publication of Westpac consumer sentiment and the speech of the RBA Deputy Head, Guy Debelle. In April, the confidence index rose sharply by 1.9% MoM after falling by 4.8% MoM last month. Debelle's speech was of a general nature and did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the instrument. However, the official again complained about external economic risks, in particular, at the slowdown of the Chinese economy and noted a weaker growth of the Australian economy, which does not correspond to forecasts of the second half of 2018.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen, continuing the development of the correction impulse formed at the beginning of the week. The yen is supported by the risks of the US-EU trade conflict, despite the fact that the conflict with China has not been finally resolved. Today, the instrument is traded in both directions due to the emergence of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics and the expectation of a speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. The volume of bank lending in Japan in March increased by 2.4% YoY, which was better than forecasts, suggesting a slowdown from 2.3% to 2.0% YoY. The demand for machine-building products in February showed an increase of 1.8% MoM against expectations of 2.5% MoM. In annual terms, orders accelerated the decline from -2.9% to -5.5% YoY, which also turned out to be worse than analysts' expectations of -5.2% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices showed correctional dynamics on April 9, retreating from the five-month highs amid Russia's statements about the further decline in production. In particular, Russia may consider the possibility of increasing production after the next OPEC meeting, as circumstances require further reduction of reserves. Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country does not support an uncontrolled rise in oil prices and that the current prices for commodities are quite acceptable. Quotes were also pressured by the American Petroleum Institute report, published yesterday. For the week of April 5, oil reserves in the United States increased by 4.091 million barrels after rising by 2.963 million over the previous period.

LiteForex. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR fell against USD, returning to the levels of the opening of the trading session on April 10, under pressure from technical factors. In addition, the “bullish” impulse associated with the extension of the Brexit terms is noticeably reduced. The course was also negatively affected by poor Chinese consumer inflation data. In March, CPI fell by 0.4% MoM after rising by 1.0% MoM in February. Analysts had expected a decrease of only 0.2% MoM. Statistics from Germany did not have a noticeable effect on the EUR, as it fully met market expectations. Inflation rose by 0.4% MoM and 1.3% YoY in March, which also coincided with the data of the previous month. Today, during the Asian session, EUR is steadily growing. Traders are focused on EU February statistics on industrial production, as well as a block of March statistics on imports and exports from China.

GBP/USD

GBP against USD is consolidating near the level of 1.3000 under pressure of ambiguous macroeconomic publications and the risks of a political crisis in the UK. Yesterday, the EU and the UK managed to agree on a new long-term delay, which should help London achieve a final agreement in parliament. However, Teresa May quickly loses her supporters. In addition, the EU has given Britain a certain amount of freedom in the matter of the possible abolition of Brexit. May’s political opponents of May, who are in favor of holding a second referendum, may take advantage of it.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD dropped significantly against USD, retreating from its highs since February 27, renewed the day before. The development of negative dynamics in the instrument was promoted by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China, as well as a number of positive data from the United States of America. Investors were optimistic about the American data block on producer price dynamics. Excluding food products and energy, PPI rose by 0.6% MoM and 2.2% YoY in March against expected growth of +0.3% MoM and +1.9% YoY. Additional support for USD was provided by Initial Jobless Claims. As of April 5, the figure dropped from 204K to 196K, contrary to forecasts of growth to 211K.

USD/JPY

Yesterday, USD rose significantly against the JPY, balancing the decline since the beginning of the week, with the support of US optimistic macroeconomic statistics on industrial inflation and jobless claims data. Also on the market, there is some growth in investor interest in risk, since at least one negative factor was eliminated. EU granted the UK with a new delay, which allowed the Kingdom to avoid secession from the EU under the “hard” scenario. Today, the investors are focused on Chinese import and export statistics, as well as the American University of Michigan consumer confidence index for April. It is predicted that the indicator can be corrected from 98.4 to 98.0 points, which will have a noticeable pressure on USD.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices fell, retreating from record highs. The dynamic was caused by a technical correction at the end of the week; however, there are enough fundamental reasons for the decline. In particular, investors are concerned about a sharp increase in the volume of crude oil reserves in the United States, which, coupled with a record volume of oil production of 12.2 million barrels per day, creates significant risks for quotations. A more confident downward correction is currently hampered by an active OPEC+ policy and US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. Today, investors will wait for Baker Hughes' report on active oil platforms.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR declined against USD, continuing the development of a poor “bearish” impulse formed at the beginning of the week, due to technical factors. In addition, investors are disappointed with the growth rate of the European economy, which is unable to reach the forecasted levels, despite the extremely soft monetary policy of the regulator. Moderate support was provided by macroeconomic statistics from the ZEW Institute. April’s German ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 3.6 to 3.1 points, while the growth only to 0.8 points was expected. German ZEW Current Conditions for the same period decreased from 11.1 to 5.5 points, which was worse than market expectations of 8.0 points. April’s ZEW EU Economic Sentiment also grew steadily –2.5 to 4.5 points, with a forecast of 1.2 points. Today, investors are focused on March EU data on consumer inflation and the publication of the Fed’s economic review Beige Book.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP fell against USD, receiving no significant support from the UK labor market report. The Unemployment Rate in February remained at 3.9% 3m/Yr, which coincided with market forecasts. Average Earnings without bonus decreased slightly by 0.1% to 3.4% 3m/Yr in February, as expected. March Claimant Count Change increased from 26.7 to 28.3K, while analysts had expected a decline to 20.0K. Today, during the Asian session, the pair is trading upwards, receiving minor support from Chinese publications. Investors are awaiting the release of March statistics on consumer inflation in the UK. It is predicted that the CPI will rise by 0.3% MoM, slowing down against the previous +0.5% MoM, and grow by +2.0% YoY. The market also expects the speech of the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney, who can tell about the plans of monetary policy in the context of new terms for Brexit.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD moved in different directions against USD, ending the day session with almost zero results. In the morning, the price was under pressure by the published RBA protocols, which focused on growing external risks and a slowdown in the growth rate of the Australian economy. With the opening of the American session, the instrument was able to quickly recoup, as USD was under pressure from industrial production statistics. In March, the index fell by 0.1% MoM after rising by 0.1% MoM last month. Analysts were counting on acceleration to +0.2% MoM. Capacity Utilization fell from 79.0% to 78.8% in March, which also was worse than market forecasts of 79.1%. Today, during the Asian session, AUD is supported by strong statistics from China. March Retail Sales increased by 8.7% YoY after rising by 8.2% YoY in February. Industrial production for the same period rose by 8.5% YoY after rising by 5.3% YoY in February.

USD/JPY

USD is moving horizontally against JPY, remaining around local highs since March 5. The positions of USD are under pressure, as there is a lack of strong US macroeconomic statistics on the market, and investors are awaiting the resolution of the US-China trade negotiations. In addition, the market fears harsh statements by Donald Trump, who accuses the regulator of slowing economic growth and extremely weak inflation. The President urges the Fed to resume quantitative easing. Meanwhile, traders are following US and Japanese trade negotiations. While the parties are very optimistic but no specific decisions have yet been made. Japanese exports fell by 2.4% YoY in March, which was twice as bad as the decline in February. Imports, in contrast, rose by 1.1% YoY after a decrease of 6.6% YoY in February. Due to a sharp decline in exports, the overall March trade balance increased from 334.9 to 528.5 billion JPY.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices resumed moderate growth, responding to new exacerbations in Libya and a decline in exports of petroleum products from Venezuela and Iran. The quotes, in turn, are under pressure from uncertain prospects of the OPEC+ transaction. In particular, Russia may decide to increase the rate of oil production in order to compete with the ever-increasing supplies from the United States. The further fate of the current transaction will be decided in June when the cartel gathers for the next summit. Published on the eve of the report of the American Petroleum Institute on oil reserves reflected the decline in stocks for the week of April 12 to 3.096 million barrels after rising by 4.091 million barrels for the previous period. Today, investors are awaiting publication of a report on production and reserves from the US Department of Energy.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

Yesterday, EUR declined significantly against USD, renewing the local lows since April 8. The negative dynamics is due to disappointing statistics on EU business activity. April Markit Service PMI decreased from 53.3 to 52.5 points, against the expected decrease only to 53.2 points. April Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.6 to 51.3 points against the forecast of 51.8 points. German data were better than expected. Markit Service PMI rose from 55.4 to 55.6 points, while the market expected a decline to 55.1 points. The only exception was Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 44.1 to 44.5 points while the forecast was 45.0 points. In addition to ambiguous macroeconomic statistics, EUR was under pressure from the prospects of a new trade war between the US and the EU. Yesterday, Brussels announced the possibility of introducing response import duties on American goods worth more than $20 billion.

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP fell against USD, renewing local lows since March 29. Mostly, the decline in GBP was of a technical nature, since the UK was able to support investor sentiment in the market after the publication of strong Retail Sales statistics. In March, it increased by 1.1% MoM and 6.7% YoY, which was significantly better than the February data: + 0.6% MoM and + 4.0% YoY. Analysts expected a decline by 0.3% MoM and growth by 4.6% YoY. The indicator excluding fuel sales in March increased by 1.2% MoM and 6.2% YoY, while the forecast was –0.3% MoM and + 4.0% YoY. Today, during the Asian session, GBP is trading in different directions, waiting for new drivers in the market. Trading on the last day of the week is likely to be fairly calm, as European markets are closed on the occasion of Good Friday.

AUD/USD

Yesterday, AUD fell against USD within the correction, departing from local highs since April 17. Despite the publication of a moderately optimistic report on the Australian labor market, investors found no reason to buy AUD with the opening of European and American trading sessions. USD was supported by strong data on Retail Sales. In March, it increased by 1.6% MoM after falling by 0.2% MoM last month. Analysts expected a gain of +0.9% MoM. Sales excluding cars for the same period rose by 1.2% MoM with a forecast of +0.7% MoM. The cumulative retail sales from the US Census Bureau increased in March by 1.0% MoM, after falling 0.3% MoM last month. The market expected a much more modest growth of +0.4% MoM.

USD/JPY

USD maintains the same momentum against JPY, remaining close to the local highs since December 20, 2018 and the level of 112.00. Yesterday’s US PMI data did not support USD significantly, however, it grew against the most currencies. Markit Manufacturing PMI in April did not change against the March one, remaining at the level of 52.4 points, with the forecast of growth to 52.8 points. Service PMI significantly declined from 55.3 to 52.9 points against the forecast of 55.0 points. April Composite PMI fell from 54.6 to 52.8 points.

Oil

Yesterday, oil prices rose, supported by the same factors on the market. The report by the US Department of Energy reflected a steady decline in US oil reserves by 1.4 million barrels, and also recorded a slight decrease in the volume of “black gold” production in the country. The decline in supply by OPEC+ is also observed, although the market fears uncertain prospects around the extension of the deal in the current year. The price is positively affected by the news from Libya, where the internal military conflict is going, which threatens to completely stop oil production in the country. On Thursday, one day earlier than usual, Baker Hughes published a report on active oil platforms in the United States. During the reporting week, the number of drilling rigs fell from 833 to 825 units.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro showed a slight growth against the US dollar on April 22, continuing the development of the "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Market activity remains low due to the Easter holidays, but investors are gradually returning. They are focused on the US-EU trade conflict, which faces new risks for both economies. In addition, investors are awaiting the signing of the US-China final trade agreement, which will somewhat balance the risks in the market. On Tuesday, the market is not expecting a large amount of interesting macroeconomic statistics. Investors will be focused on the level of consumer confidence in the Eurozone in April, as well as the dynamics of housing prices and sales of new homes in the USA in March.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a slight decline on Monday, updating the local minima of March 11. In the absence of new drivers in the market, investors are discussing the prospects for the development of a political crisis in the UK. Prime Minister Theresa May does not leave attempts to attract parliamentarians to her side, in order to achieve approval of the current version of the agreement with the EU. It is possible that opponents of May will try to achieve a new referendum in agreement with the European Union or a repeated referendum on the country's withdrawal.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is declining against the US dollar at the beginning of the week, updating local lows of April 12. Investor activity remains quite low, so the instrument is influenced by technical factors. Published on Monday, data from the United States was mostly negative, which, however, did not prevent the pair from continuing the downward movement. Sales in the secondary housing market in the USA declined in March by 4.9% MoM after rising by 11.2% MoM last month. Analysts were expecting a decline of 2.3% MoM. In absolute terms, sales fell from 5.48 to 5.21 million, with a forecast of 5.30 million. Today, investors are focused on statistics from the United States. Interesting data from Australia will appear on Wednesday when the RBA will publish statistics on consumer inflation for Q1 2019.

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to show ambiguous dynamics against the Japanese yen, slightly tending down. Published at the beginning of the week, weak macroeconomic statistics from the USA does not strengthen the dollar, while the yen gets support in the thin market as "safe haven". Today, investors expect releases on retail sales and sales of new homes from the USA. Japan will publish statistics only on Wednesday, when the activity index in all sectors will be released, as well as data on leading and coincident indicators for February. On Thursday, a meeting of the Bank of Japan at an interest rate with an accompanying press conference will be held.

Oil

Oil prices rose markedly on April 22, supported by the US intention to impose sanctions on countries that import oil from Iran. Now for a number of countries, there is an exception that allows them to buy Iranian oil, but starting from May 2, this possibility will disappear, which threatens with an acute shortage in the market or new trade conflicts. Among countries that import Iranian oil, there is also China, which still cannot agree on all the details on a trade dispute with the United States. Today, investors will focus on the API report on oil reserves. The last report reflected a sharp reduction of 3.096 million barrels.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The euro finished trading on April 24 with a steady decline against the US dollar, having updated record lows since June 2017. The European currency was pressured by a weak macroeconomic publications from Germany, as well as the general strengthening of the dollar. According to the data from the IFO, the Indicator of Business Optimism in Germany in April fell from 99.6 to 99.2 points, while the forecast was 99.9 points. The Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the same period fell from 95.6 to 95.2 points, while analysts expected growth to 96.1 points. The Current Assessment Index rolled back from 103.8 to 103.3 points while the forecast was 103.6 points. Negative is added to the market from the development of the US-EU trade conflict after Trump announced the introduction of import duties, and the EU responded with symmetrical measures. However, the focus of attention is on the US-China trade conflict; in the near future, the parties should hold two new rounds of negotiations, which may end with the signing of a final agreement.

GBP/USD

The pound declined against the US dollar on Wednesday, updating local lows of February 15. The development of "bearish" dynamics was supported by macroeconomic publications from the UK. The volume of public sector net borrowings in March increased by 0.840 billion pounds, whereas previously they decreased by 0.514 billion. Analysts were expecting a decrease of -0.400 billion pounds. Yesterday, the media got information that the British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to once again seek a review of the agreement with the EU. The European Commission did not take long to respond: Jean-Claude Juncker stated that the EU would not review the deal. In his opinion, the current version of the agreement is the "best" option for both parties.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell significantly against the US one on Wednesday, updating local lows of March 8 and again approaching a strong support level of 0.7000. The Australian currency position was strongly pressured by consumer inflation data for Q1 2019, published the day before, which was worse than analysts' expectations. Today, the instrument is expectedly traded in a flat. In Australia, markets are closed on the occasion of the celebration of the national holiday, so all investors will be focused on statistics from the United States. With the opening of the American session, data on the dynamics of orders for durable goods in March is expected to be published.

USD/JPY

The US dollar appreciably strengthened against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, interrupting the flat series since April 15. The growth of the instrument on April 24 was caused by the strengthening of the dollar, as well as the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan. The activity index in all industries in February showed a decline of 0.2% MoM after the zero dynamics last month. The indicator was slightly worse than market expectations of -0.1% MoM. At the same time, the index of coinciding indicators in February rose from 99.6 to 100.4 points, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts (98.8 points). The index of leading indicators strengthened from 96.3 to 97.1 points while the forecast was 97.4 points. Today, investors are focused on the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the accompanying press conference. As expected, the regulator left the interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, emphasizing the persistence of significant risks for the Japanese economy. The BoJ also slightly revised its forecasts for GDP growth in 2019 and 2020. In 2019, the Bank expects the economy to grow by 0.9% YoY, and in 2020 - by 1.0% YoY. Earlier, forecasts suggested a rise of 0.8% YoY and 0.9% YoY, respectively.

Oil

Oil prices showed a slight increase on April 24, continuing to trade at record highs. The data of a report from the US Department of Energy, which reflected a sharp increase in oil reserves for the week of April 19 by 5.5 million barrels to 460.6 million barrels, prevented a more confident strengthening yesterday. Analysts had expected the emergence of positive dynamics but hoped for growth of only 1.255 million. The report also reflected the growth of oil production in the USA from 12.100 million to 12.200 million barrels per day.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

The European currency has updated local lows against the US dollar last Friday, but managed to finish the afternoon session with growth. The instrument was under pressure from strong macroeconomic statistics on the US GDP for Q1 2019. According to preliminary estimates, the US economy showed an increase of 3.2% YoY against the growth of 2.2% YoY over the past period. Analysts' forecasts were very modest and assumed growth of only 2.0% YoY. On the other hand, the GDP price index for the same period showed an increase of only 0.6% YoY, with a forecast of 1.3% YoY, which indicates that the country's low inflation rates remain. During today's Asian session, the pair shows active growth, developing corrective dynamics. Investors are focused on statistics on business sentiment in the euro area. After American session starts, Personal Income and Personal Spending data for February and March will be published in the US.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed a slight increase against the US dollar on Friday and maintains a weak upward trend during today's Asian session. The growth of the instrument is largely technical in nature, since the factors putting pressure on the British currency are still strong. Theresa May is negotiating with the Labor Party, but so far there has been no noticeable progress. The dialogue will continue this week, but the British Prime Minister has to hurry, as the level of political pressure is growing steadily. Today, investors do not expect the publication of significant data from the UK, so they will focus on statistics from the US and the euro area instead.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar shows rather active correctional growth, offsetting a strong decline of the pair at the beginning of the last trading week. Last Friday, the growth of the instrument was ambiguous, which was caused by the publication of controversial macroeconomic statistics from Australia. The Export Price Index in Q1 2019 rose by 4.5% QoQ after rising by 4.4% QoQ in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index slowed down from 2.0% YoY to 1.9% YoY over the same period. On a quarterly basis, the indicator rose by 0.4% QoQ, while the forecast was 0.6% QoQ. During today's Asian session, the Australian dollar is also traded with an upward trend, despite the fact that there are no new growth drivers at the market. Today, investors expect the publication of statistics on Personal Spending and Income in the US for March.

USD/JPY

The Japanese currency returned to the flat dynamics against the US dollar, noticeably departing from the local highs, updated on April 24. Pressure on the yen was caused by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from Japan last Friday. The Unemployment Rate in March unexpectedly rose from 2.3% to 2.5%, while analysts expected growth to only 2.4%. The data on industrial production were also disappointing. According to preliminary data, in March, production volumes decreased by 0.9% MoM and 4.6% YoY, which was significantly worse than market expectations (–0.1% MoM and –0.6% YoY). Tokyo Core CPI supported the yen moderately. The index grew by 1.3% YoY in April, although investors did not expect any changes in the previous value of +1.1% YoY.

Oil

Oil prices fell sharply on April 26, retreating from record highs updated the day before. The decrease in the instrument proceeded against the background of interruptions in the oil supply from Russia to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline, which caused an increase in concerns about the shortage of raw materials in the market earlier. Analytical comments helped the instrument, convincing investors that refining companies have enough oil reserves to avoid any distortions. In addition, Russia is set to restore supplies of "black gold" today. Last Friday, the report by Baker Hughes, which reflected a sharp reduction in the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US from 825 to 805, also supported the quotes.

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

EUR/USD

During the Asian session on May 6, the European currency is trading with a rise against the US dollar, trying to develop a "bullish" impulse formed at the end of last week. Euro growth on Friday was facilitated by strong statistics on consumer inflation in the euro area. CPI rose in April by 1.7% YoY against a growth of 1.4% YoY last month. Analysts had expected growth by 1.6% YoY only. Core CPI for the same period strengthened by 1.2% YoY after rising by 0.8% YoY. The indicator was better than expected +1.0% YoY. Minor support for the European currency today is provided by statistics from China. Caixin Non-Manufacturing PMI index rose from 54.4 to 54.5 points in April, while experts expected it to decline to 54.3 points. On Monday, the market is waiting for the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on business activity and retail sales in the euro area. Interesting statistics from the US are expected to be few, so investors will follow the development of trade negotiations with China, a new round of which is scheduled for May 8 in Washington.

GBP/USD

GBP grew sharply against USD on Friday updating local highs of April 4. The growth of the British currency was facilitated by the correctional sentiment towards USD against the backdrop of publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. April report on the labor market, published on May 3, pointed to an unexpected decrease in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.6%. Nonfarm Payrolls were better than expectations as well. Outside of agriculture, the US economy created 263K new jobs after growth of the figure to 189K in March. The forecast assumed growth by only 185K. At the same time, Average Hourly Earnings in April showed an increase of 3.2% YoY against the forecast of +3.3% YoY. Participation Rate declined from 63.0% to 62.8%, with the forecast of 62.9%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in April declined from 56.1 to 55.5 points with the forecast of 57.2 points.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is growing moderately during the Asian session on May 6 after the opening with a negative gap. Last Friday, the pair managed to show quite active growth, despite the fact that macroeconomic statistics from Australia remained disappointing. The published data reflected a sharp decline in the number of building approvals issued in March by 15.5% MoM. In annual terms, the index was –27.3% YoY. Today, the Australian dollar receives moderate support from the Chinese statistics on business activity, but again is under pressure from weak data from Australia. TD Securities inflation rate in April increased by 0.2% MoM, slowing down from the previous +0.4% MoM. ANZ Job Advertisements in April fell by 0.1% MoM after declining by 1.7% MoM in March. Investors are focused on tomorrow's RBA meeting on the interest rate, as well as a block of statistics on imports/exports and retail sales in March.

USD/JPY

The US dollar opened with a confident downward gap against the Japanese yen, updating local lows of March 28. Instrument activity remains low due to public holidays in Japan; therefore, the main focus of attention is on data from the United States. A report published on Friday on the US labor market failed to provide significant support to the dollar, despite a number of strong publications that turned out to be better than expected. The alarming news around the US-China trade negotiations, which are currently at the final stage, is contributing to the growth in demand for a "safe" yen. The next round of talks should be held on May 8 in Washington, but investors fear that China may refuse to participate in them because of the harsh remarks of Donald Trump, who promised to increase import duties on a number of Chinese goods from 10 to 25% from May 10.

Oil

Oil prices weaken at the beginning of the new week. Brent crude oil opened with a confident downward gap, updating the local lows of April 4. The negative reaction of the market is associated with growing fears about the progress of the US-China negotiations, which are again under threat after the harsh statements of Donald Trump. Additional pressure on Friday came from the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA. During the reporting week, the number of drilling rigs increased from 805 to 807 units, which is especially alarming, given the continued growth in oil production in the United States. Last week, the figure reached a record 12.3 million barrels per day.

Morning Market Review

2019-05-08 08:52 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency on Tuesday traded in both directions, closing with a slight decrease. Factory orders data published in Germany put pressure on the euro. In March, the index rose by 0.6% MoM against a decrease of 4.0% MoM last month, but analysts expected a more confident increase of 1.6% MoM. In annual terms, orders showed a negative trend at the level of –6.0% YoY against the expected –6.2% YoY. In February, the decline was –8.1% YoY. An economic report of the European Commission put additional pressure on the instrument. According to published data, GDP growth in the euro area in 2019 is expected to be 1.2% against the previous value of 1.3%. For 2020, the growth rate of the regional economy was also revised downward from 1.6% to 1.5%. In turn, the European Commission has noticeably improved its forecasts for the labor market, which can also have a positive effect on inflation expectations.

GBP/USD

The British pound showed an uncertain decline against the US dollar on Tuesday. The pound continues to correct paired with the US currency after an aggressive growth on May 3. The pressure on the British currency is exerted by the threat of disruption of the US-China trade negotiations, as well as the lack of visible progress in attempts to reach an agreement within the British parliament. The Minister for the Cabinet Office, David Lidington, confirmed that the UK will take part in the elections to the European Parliament, which will be held on May 23. According to the official, the Parliament of Great Britain simply will not have time to agree on a deal. During the Asian session on May 8, the pair is trading in both directions, and trading activity remains extremely low. Moderate support for the pound is provided by BRC data on retail sales in the UK. The indicator grew by 3.7% YoY in April after the decline by 1.1% YoY in the previous month. Analysts expected an increase of 2.4% YoY.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar increases moderately against the US currency, developing corrective growth since the beginning of the week. The Australian dollar received some support from data on retail sales in Australia. The indicator grew by 0.3% MoM with the forecast for growth of 0.2% MoM In March. The market reaction to the decision of the RBA and the publication of the follow-up minutes was quite restrained. The regulator left the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%, while noting the growing risks of a slowdown in the global economy. However, the RBA noted some improvements in the labor market. During the Asian session on May 8, the pair is trading with a raise. More confident growth of the instrument is hampered by ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from China. Chinese exports unexpectedly went down by 2.7% YoY in April after growth by 14.2% YoY in the previous month. At the same time, imports showed an increase of 4.0% YoY, with a forecast of –3.6% YoY and a decrease of 7.6% YoY last month. The strong divergence of imports and exports led to a noticeable decrease in the trade surplus, which collapsed in April from USD 32.67 billion to USD 13.84 billion.

USD/JPY

The US dollar showed a steady decline against the Japanese yen in trading on Tuesday. "Bearish" activity can also be traced during today's Asian session, against the background of which the instrument updates local lows of March 26. The yen is supported by a sharply increased threat of disrupting the US-China trade negotiations after Donald Trump's statements. However, there is information that the Chinese delegation made a decision to arrive at the talks in Washington, which gives hope for a favorable outcome of the process. Today, the instrument maintains a downward direction. The yen responds to the publication of ambiguous statistics from Japan and China, but interest in the risk remains low, which gives the Japanese currency considerable support.

Oil

Oil prices again showed an aggressive decline on Tuesday, offsetting the results of the growth of quotations at the beginning of the week. The instrument is still under pressure from the potential disruption of the US-China trade negotiations, which could worsen the situation with the balance of supply and demand of oil in the market. More confident reduction of quotes is hampered by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. A report published by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday pointed to an increase in oil reserves for the week as of May 3 by 2.806 million barrels after rising by 6.810 million barrels over the previous reporting week. Today, investors are waiting for the statistics on crude oil stocks from the US EIA.

Morning Market Review

2019-05-14 08:56 (GMT+2)

EUR/USD

The European currency finished Monday's trading with a decrease against the US dollar, despite the fact that during the day the euro updated the local highs of the beginning of the month. Pressure on the instrument is exacerbated by trade relations between the United States and China against the background of ineffective negotiations and the exchange of threats. Last Friday, Donald Trump raised import duties on a number of Chinese goods, accusing Beijing of disrupting negotiations. The Minister of Finance of China also announced introduction of higher tariffs on imports of goods from the United States in the amount of USD 60 billion starting from June 1. The possibility of exacerbation of trade relations between the US and the EU also adds to the negative sentiment at the market. Donald Trump has repeatedly advocated the introduction of import duties on European goods after the case of subsidizing the Boeing Company. On May 18, the United States may announce increased tariffs on the import of European cars, which will force the EU to respond with mirror measures.

GBP/USD

The British pound declined significantly at the beginning of the current trading week, updating local lows of April 30. The aggravation of the trade conflict between the US and the PRC, as well as the possible start of a trade war between the US and the EU, contributes to the development of the "bearish" dynamics of the instrument. During the Asian session on May 14, the instrument is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers to appear at the market. On Tuesday, investors are focused on the statistics on the UK labor market in March. It is expected that while maintaining the previous unemployment rate of 3.9%, the average earnings may slow down, which will put pressure on the pound.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell significantly paired with the US currency on Monday, updating the local lows of the beginning of the year. The pressure on the Australian currency was put by exacerbated trade relations between the US and China, which threatens with a new round of slowdown in the global economy. Experts fear that the introduction of new import duties by the conflict parties will have a negative impact on the dynamics of Australian exports, which have recently been experiencing certain difficulties. During the Asian session on May 14, the Australian dollar is under moderate pressure from weak macroeconomic statistics from Australia. Thus, the NAB Business Survey in April collapsed from 7 to 3 points, which turned out to be worse than expected decline to 4 points. NAB Business Confidence index for the same period showed a moderate increase from –1 to 0 points, which, however, also turned out to be worse than market expectations of an increase to 1 point.

USD/JPY

The US dollar dropped significantly against the Japanese yen on Monday, updating local lows of February 1. The market still shows an increased demand for the Japanese currency against the background of the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, which are ready to mutually increase import duties. In turn, Japanese macroeconomic statistics released on Monday failed to provide any support to the yen. The Leading Index in March fell from 97.1 to 96.3 points, with the forecast of 96.4 points.

Oil

Oil prices rose moderately on Monday, supported by reports of a sabotage attack on ships near Fujairah. According to preliminary information, 4 vessels including two Saudi tankers were damaged, which could cause disruptions in oil supplies. Anyway, by the end of yesterday's trading session, the prices for the instrument had been noticeably corrected, and the focus of investor attention shifted to the development of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Today, investors are awaiting publication of a report from API on oil reserves for the week as of May 10.