LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Since the opening of the European session, the price of silver is growing but the downward trend is still relevant. A key support level is around 5/8 Murrey or 14.55. If the price consolidates below it, then the next target will be the level of 14.00.

The precious metals are under pressure of the Fed’s aggressive policy, which continues to raise interest rates and provides an increase in government bonds’ yield and makes these instruments attractive for investment. On the other hand, criticism of the regulators’ actions by Donald Trump may affect the global balance of power in the market, and as monetary policy changes, silver will increase again. Nevertheless, the US economy continues to grow, and many economists believe that there is no point in mitigating the policy. Thus, the published data on Industrial Production for September increased by +5.1%. Capacity Utilization decreased slightly to 78.1% against a forecast of 78.2%, which may be a short-term recession, which will reverse upwards again.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at 22 points and reflects a possibility of a correction.
Resistance Levels: 14.74, 14.84.
Support levels: 14.55, 14.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 14.55 with the target at 14.00 and the stop loss at 14.74.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: euro remains under pressure

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR fell significantly against USD, renewing its lows since October 10, due to the general strengthening of USD after strict Fed’s statements on further interest rate growth. USD was additionally supported by a sharp decline in the Chinese yuan, which continues today due to poor data on China's Q3 GDP.

EUR is under pressure of uncertain Brexit prospects and the tightening of the situation around the Italian budget for the next year. Yesterday, investors were focused on the summit of EU leaders in Brussels. There were no new proposals to solve the Irish border problem, and an agreement with the UK was not concluded. However, officials are developing a new mechanism to allow the UK to leave the EU as painlessly as possible. The idea is to extend the negotiations on the Irish border for a certain period after the end of the Brexit procedure itself.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately reduced. The price range is narrowing, letting the "bears" renew local lows. MACD is decreasing, keeping a moderate sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic falls, however, is in close proximity to zero values, which reflects that EUR is oversold in the super short term.

It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1.1460, 1.1500, 1.1522, 1.1547.
Support levels: 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1352.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after a reversal near the current support levels and the breakout of 1.1460–1.1470 with the target of 1.1580 or 1.1600. Stop loss is 1.1430. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1430 with the target at 1.1352. Stop loss is 1.1460–1.1470. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis

XAU/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument grows towards the upper border of Bollinger bands, and the price range is widened, which reflects a possibility of further upward movement development. MACD histogram is in the positive area, the signal line crosses the zero line and the body of the histogram upwards, forming a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the signal line of the oscillator is directed downwards.

XAU/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument broke through the upper border of Bollinger bands, and the price is now growing. MACD histogram is in the positive area, its volumes are minimal, the indicator signal line moves horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards.

Key levels

Resistance levels: 1235.54, 1245.43, 1257.05, 1267.00.
The levels of support: 1228.52, 1222.71, 1217.95, 1214.00, 1207.60, 1205.05, 1198.69, 1192.75, 1182.79.

Trading tips

In the short term, long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1245.00 and stop loss 1230.00.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1214.00 with the target at 1207.50. Stop loss is 1218.00.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

This week, the pair was corrected to the level of 1.1352 (Murray [2/8]). On Wednesday, the European currency was under pressure from the results of the ECB meeting. The rates remained the same: the key one – at the level of 0.0%, and the deposit one – at the level of -0.4%. The rhetoric of the regulator has not changed. The accompanying statement noted that officials expect rates to increase no earlier than the end of the summer of 2019, and purchases of bonds in the amount of 15 billion euros will continue until December. During the press conference, ECB Head Mario Draghi noted that the increase in protectionism and the volatility of the financial market are important risks for the recovery of the Eurozone. Currently the European economy is weakening due to the uncertainty with Brexit, the new Italian budget and the US-China trade war. However, the ECB's policy helps support domestic demand and private consumption. Current regulatory measures are still needed to ensure a steady increase in inflation to a target level of 2.0%.

Today the data on US GDP for the third quarter will be published. The figure may decline from 4.2% to 3.3%, which may slow down the downward trend.

Support and resistance

The price is testing the level of 1.1352 (Murray [2/8]), the breakdown of which may cause a fall to the levels of 1.1291 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.1230 (Murray [0/8]). A breakout of the level of 1.1413 (Murray [3/8]) may cause an upward correction to the levels of 1.1474 (Murray [4/8], the middle line of the Bollinger bands) and 1.1535 (Murray [5/8]). However, the decline looks more likely, as the Bollinger and Stochastic are directed downwards, and the MACD histogram is increasing in the positive zone.

Support Levels: 1.1352, 1.1291, 1.1230.
Resistance Levels: 1.1413, 1.1474, 1.1535.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at 1.1340 with targets at 1.1291, 1.1230 and a stop loss at 1.1390.
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 1.1413 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1535 and a stop loss in the region of 1.1380.

Implementation of scenarios: 4-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On D1 chart, the instrument broke through the middle line of Bollinger Bands, and after that, the decline slowed down. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal, the signal line is moving horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are pointing downwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On the H4 chart, the instrument declines along the lower border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in negative zone with its volumes gradually growing; the signal line is crossing its body from above, keeping the signal for the opening of short orders. Stochastic crossed the border of the oversold zone from above, the oscillator lines are reversing up.

Key levels

Support levels: 14.39, 14.33, 14.22, 14.15, 14.05, 13.99, 13.92.
Resistance levels: 14.43, 14.49, 14.60, 14.70, 14.77, 14.82, 14.89.

Trading tips

According to technical indicators, short positions could be opened from the current level with the target at 14.22 and stop loss at 14.50.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 14.60 with the target at 14.82 and stop loss at 14.49.
Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair fell to the lows of the current year. USD strengthened against EUR due to ADP Nonfarm Employment Change release: in October, the value increased by 227K, exceeding the forecast by 189K. Its growth has a positive effect on the level of consumption, stimulating the economy and strengthening the currency.

In September, Retail Sales in Germany rose by only 0.1% instead of the expected 0.5%, while on an annualized basis the figure fell by 2.6%. However, EU inflation’s growth exceeded market expectations. In October, CPI increased from 2.1% to 2.2%, and Core Consumer Price Index grew from 0.9% to 1.1%.

US Manufacturing PMI release is due 15:45 (GMT+2) today. It is predicted that October indicator may fall for the second month in a row, from 59.8 to 59.0 points, which will affect USD negatively.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the downward movement is in the correction towards the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping the signal to open short positions.

Resistance levels: 1.1375, 1.1410, 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490.
Support levels: 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1300.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1330 with the target at 1.1280 and stop loss 1.1360.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1375 with the target at 1.1430 and stop loss 1.1340.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday, EUR strengthened against USD, despite macroeconomic data favorable to the American economy. October Markit Service PMI rose to 54.8 points, exceeding the forecast of 54.7 points. ISM Service PMI also outperformed the forecast, reaching 54.9 points against the forecast of 54.8. Composite Markit PMI fell by 1.3 points against the previous value but was better than expected, reaching 60.3 points.

Market participants are preparing for the upcoming Congressional midterm elections. If the Republicans fail to hold the House of Representatives, then President Trump’s position may deteriorate. Probably, representatives of the Democratic Party will impede the implementation of the economic plans of the current administration, as well as be able to raise the issue of impeachment. The investors are also focused on the trade conflict between the United States and China.

Today, traders are waiting for the EU Service PMI release. According to forecasts, in October the indicator will remain at the same level of 53.3 points.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is moving sideways within a corridor formed by the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive region, generating a signal to open long positions.

Resistance levels: 1.1430, 1.1460, 1.1490, 1.1515, 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1630.
Support levels: 1.1410, 1.1395, 1.1380, 1.1355, 1.1330, 1.1300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss 1.1380. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1350 with the target at 1.1300 and stop loss 1.1380. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

LiteForex analitics. FDAX: technical analysis

FDAX, D1

On the D1 chart, a descending movement correction is observed; the instrument is trading between the center and upper lines of Bollinger Bands, and the indicator borders are narrowing. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for opening short positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the signal line of the oscillator is directed downwards.

FDAX, H4

On the H4 chart, the uptrend is still in force; the instrument is trading near the upper line of Bollinger Bands; the indicator borders are widened, which may indicate a likely continuation of growth in the short term. MACD histogram is in the positive area forming a signal for opening long positions. Stochastic is on the border with the overbought zone, the signal line is directed upwards.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 11689.2, 11792.7, 11860.0.
Support levels: 11526.3, 11425.4, 11347.8, 11228.8, 11151.2, 11047.7.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the level of 11689.2 with target at 11860.0 and stop loss at 11600.0. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 11526.3 with target at 11425.4. Stop loss — 11580.0. Implementation period: 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. SX5E: technical analysis

SX5E, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is approaching its strong resistance region. The Composite is about to test from above its longer MA.

SX5E, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains slightly below the SMA200, and on the level with the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that turned horizontally. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA. The Composite is showing Bearish dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 3205.0 (local lows), 3180.0 (local lows), 3100.0 (October lows).
Resistance levels: 3268.0 (local highs), 3315.0 (local highs), 3340.0 (June lows).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating below a strong resistance near 3268.0. There is a chance of a downward correction, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 3268.0 with targets at 3315.0, 3340.0 and stop-loss at 3235.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 3180.0 with the target at 3100.0 and stop-loss at 3205.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: instrument consolidated

Current trend

Yesterday, USD rose slightly against CAD, failing to update Tuesday’s highs. Investors ignored the moderately optimistic macroeconomic statistics on US CPI and responded with purchases only to the speech of the Fed’s Jerome Powell.

In Dallas, Powell noted that he was fully satisfied with the current state of the American economy. At the same time, the head of the regulator mentioned the slowdown in the global economy but stressed that this was not a significant source of risks at the moment. As for the further tightening of monetary policy, Powell said that the regulator may decide to raise rates at any of eight meetings a year.

On Thursday, November 15, investors are focused on a block of US October statistics on business activity and retail sales. Traders are interested in Fed’s Randal Quarles and Raphael Bostic speeches. Canada will publish the October ADP employment report.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range widens from above, letting the “bulls” renew local highs. MACD reversed downwards, ready to generate a sell signal (the histogram should be located below the signal line). The dynamic of Stochastic is the same, it reverses downwards down near its highs.

At the end of the current trading week, a downward trend may develop in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3262, 1.3300, 1.3350.
Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3169, 1.3131, 1.3100.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3262 with the target at 1.3350. Stop loss is 1.3230–1.3220. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3200 or 1.3169 with the target at 1.3100 or 1.3047. Stop loss is 1.3210–1.3240. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

LiteForex analitics. USD/JPY: technical analysis

USD/JPY, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is approaching its strong support region. The Composite is about to test its strong support as well.

USD/JPY, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is trying to leave the oversold zone. The Composite begins forming a Bullish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 112.60 (local lows), 111.90 (local lows), 111.40 (October lows).
Resistance levels: 112.90 (local highs), 113.40 (local highs), 113.60 (local highs).

Trading tips

There is a chance of an upward correction, while a breakdown of local lows near 112.60 would allow the fall to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 113.00 with targets at 113.40, 113.60 and stop-loss at 112.75. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 112.60 with targets at 111.90, 111.40 and stop-loss at 112.90. Validity – 3-5 days.

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the Euro returned to declining

Current trend

EUR showed a decline against USD on Tuesday, retreating from updated local highs of November 7.

In the absence of significant economic releases, investors are focused on the UK, where Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to conduct a draft agreement with the EU through parliament. May's appeal for support to large British businesses was generally positively appreciated by the market, but the position of the Prime Minister remains difficult. The Conservative Party does not have a majority in Parliament, and the deputies from the allied Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland expressed dissatisfaction with the terms of the deal and do not want to support it. In the EU, there are also people dissatisfied with the agreement: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that he insists on direct negotiations over Gibraltar, a territory disputed by Madrid.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowed from above, being spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD indicator is trying to reverse into the descending plane, keeping the buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has reversed downwards near its maximum levels, indicating a sufficient potential for further development of the downtrend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Sales could be considered in the nearest future.

Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1431, 1.1460, 1.1500.
Support levels: 1.1357, 1.1334, 1.1300, 1.1266.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the level of 1.1357 with the subsequent breakout of 1.1400. Take profit — 1.1460 or 1.1500. Stop loss — 1.1370. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The breakdown of 1.1357 may serve as a signal to continue sales with the target at 1.1300. Stop loss — 1.1380 or 1.1390. Implementation period: 1-2 days.