GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 19, 2018

The single European currency and the British pound shared the same fate on Friday, as it showed high volatility during the first half of the day due to the weakening of the US dollar. While in the afternoon, the strength of the American currency prevailed which helped regain the profits of the sterling of the past few days. It further helped the GBP/USD pair to end the weak in a sluggish approach which indicates correction in the following days.

The pound was secured because of the dollar instability and pushed the Cable pair to reach the 1.38 zone until the psychologically important level of 1.40. Briefly, the pair moved away from any danger for good and the pound bulls attempt to stabilize the momentum in continuing the upward movement in the near term.

As the decline of the dollar does not have enough economic data or fundamentals to support it, the rebound in the US currency did the same. This resulted in the downturn of the pound, pushing through the 1.41 mark and traded underneath the 1.40 area for a short period of time. Subsequently, the pair successfully closed the week above the 1.40 level. As of this writing, the Cable pair continued trading on top of that region and the price level is expected to remain on that point, relative to the bulls and bears. In case the pair remained steady above 1.40, the bulls will take control which would likely to be seen in the coming weeks.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the United Kingdom while there is a bank holiday in the United States today. It is safe to say that consolidation and ranging are possible while market players anticipate for bigger investors to show up its intentions and start to move in a certain trend in order to tag along. It is believed that the USD will gain strength in the medium term.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 6, 2018

The EUR/USD pair constantly trading in a strong manner as it moves away from the election results in Italy. The focus remains to be on the dollar weakening felt across the markets. It is somewhat surprising for those who expected that the Italian election will bring an impact towards the euro area but the results of further led concerns of the EU leaders.

Italy is the third biggest economy in the European region and the election results indicate the increasing anti-establishment votes. This event is common from all over the countries especially from the United States to Asia. Hence, this should be one of the main concerns of the Euro officials since this kind of trend may grow continually which could hurt the euro and its existence in the following years. However, this does not necessarily mean that the euro is free from any burden while traders appear to be happy about the maintained current situation. This the reason behind the move of the euro/dollar pair through the 1.2350 level as of this writing

Ultimately, there are no important economic news or data from the EU or the US for this day but this reflects some ranging and consolidation in the near-term. Also, the markets anticipate further set of data in the second half of the week from the United States, indicating a short-term trend for the greenbacks.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 2, 2018

The GBP/USD pair continued trading around the 1.40 support zone which is expected to be the battleground between the bears and the bulls in the near term. However, it is difficult to make a conclusion since today is a holiday in many countries in celebrating the Easter Sunday. Hence, liquidity and volatility are predicted to be extremely low.

The Cable managed to move over the 1.42 level in the past few weeks amid the dollar weakening and also because the BOE’s hawkishness which continues to become a stronger economy as the Brexit process become smoother. The process resumed a slow, steady and continuous manner and it would take less than a year prior to the completion of the process.

So far, the British economy supported for such improvement as the process continue to smoothen and the UK had a positive performance which helped the Bank of England to conduct a rate increase during this period.

The resumption of a stable economy is beneficial for the central bank to consider further rate hikes ahead and this helped the BOE to maintain a hawkish stance. These events pushed the pair near its highs in the short-term range but it met a lot of selling as the American currency strengthen. As a result, the GBPUSD pair hovered around the significant level of 1.40. In case that the support was broken, the bears will have an opportunity to dominate again the market.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the UK or the US since its holiday in most parts of the world which indicates that the volatility and liquidity would be low for that day.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 9, 2018

The British pound declined almost throughout the Tuesday session in order to test the major uptrend line once again. The 1.35 level is still significant given that it is psychologically relevant. There is also a lot of buying and selling in this area previously, which, at the same time, coincides with the major upward line. Hence, in consideration of these factors, there will be a decision soon.

The British currency dropped during the Tuesday session in reaching the uptrend line at 1.35 level. Essentially, a breakdown below could push the price further towards 1.33. Ultimately, a breakdown could loosen up sharply since the uptrend line is important. The level of 1.30 if a significant level as much as the 1.35 handle. I presume that a breakdown is logical since the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen in the summer season.

The European Central Bank has already announced that interest rates will be maintained a bit lower for a period of time that previously considered, which, in turn, added pressure on Sterling. Although this might be just for short-term and in the next few months, it is likely for buyers to return in this currency. However, the U.S. dollar will probably grow in the upcoming months which would greatly affect the currencies relative to the bond market and of course interest rate expectations. Alternately, if a breakout occurs at 1.3650 level, then there is a chance for a kick in upward momentum.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 21, 2018

The single European currency had a quite unfortunate week due to its own fundamentals. The predicted break of the EUR/USD pair under the 1.20 mark indicates the possible weakness to be nearly accurate. In the previous week, the euro/dollar pair had lowered down by 200 pips which are fairly huge considering that market players employ a tight 200 pip range in the past few weeks prior to that.

The tight range lasted for a long period of time and showed that the breakout would be massive. The upcoming data from the European region remains to be sluggish, which implies that there is a little bit of possibility for the QE tapering to happen in the next few weeks and led this speculation to a sell-off in the euro this week.

Also, the dollar resumed gaining strength in general combined with the weakening of the European currency that pushed the pair towards the 1.20 zone and beneath the 1.18 level amid the trading course of the week. As the currency pair closed the week under the region of 1.18, it indicates further weakness in the near term.

Ultimately, this week would have a slight pause for the euro and the focus for next week is the FOMC minutes of meeting which is widely anticipated to continue its hawkishness, pointing to further rate increases in the future. The market had already priced for two more rate hikes while the markets are expecting that the Fed will announce the raise at the end of the year. Aside from that, the inflation report hearings from the EU is expected but none of these data are in favor of the single currency. Hence, the euro would likely resume its sluggishness at the 1.15 mark.

NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 23, 2018

The New Zealand currency rallied during Tuesday’s trading session and further reached the level of 0.6975, prior a rollover and wiping out throughout the day. The ascending triangle was broken in the previous session and currently testing the possible support area. Nevertheless, the NZ dollar looks like to continue struggle under the hands of the US dollar since America have higher interest rates that could continue dominate the greens in general. Moreover, the commodity markets would likely to suffer also except the oil.

Looking forward, the market has the potential to cut through the 0.70 zone based on the trend from the ascending triangle. A move closer to the 0.70 region will enable us to meet more aggressive sellers that would take advantage of the cheap greenbacks. In this regard, selling the rallies could be an option and it takes some time before the break down of the market to the 0.6850 mark again. Eventually, it will test the 0.68 zone which serves the bottom of the longer-term consolidation.

The NZD/USD pair should be expected to be volatile but with some downward slant generally. While most rallies will not last long.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: May 28, 2018

The British pound against the U.S. dollar is moving higher towards the area of 1.3350 in a calm manner during the Monday session. Hence, we can expect a muted Monday session since the Memorial Day and the U.K. has also extended their Spring Bank holiday. Since most major pairs are not active at the beginning of the week, there is very low volatility for the week and less economic calendar for most of the week. The first data to be released will be on Wednesday, followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Investors will monitor carefully for any signs that could induce volatility for the week.

The British major pair is trading close to the cyclical lows of 1.3305 at the last week of May after scheduled data for the week failed to support against the greenback. The macroeconomic of U.K. is influenced by two significant headlines including sluggish economic growth and decelerating inflation. The inflation target of 2 percent by the central bank is moving at a faster rate in line with the bank rate. This is due to the inflation-adjusted real wage amid the stale growth in the first quarter of the year. Both actions support the argument of the Bank of England following the bank rate with the forecast of Bank rate hike by 0.25% in February next year referring to the efficiency of money market rates.

Sluggish inflation of the Sterling is not so good as it gives them more time for the BoE before acting on the interest rates.  The Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member, Gertjan Vlieghe, have the same sentiment when it comes to the monetary policy where they deem the interest rates to go up gradually in the next few years. The bearish trend resumed as exhibited on the daily chart after a period of consolidation at the beginning of the month, but has not yet found a bottom following the previous decline where the indicators showed moderate easing. We should anticipate the support level at 1.3280 / 1.3245  and resistance level at 1.3365 / 1.3400.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 6, 2018

The British pound is being traded above the 1.3400 level prior to the upcoming London market session driven by better risk sentiment. The currency has reached new highs this month after reaching as low as 1.3204 on 29th of May. It reached the levels higher than 1.3400. The dollar has further weakened amid better market sentiment which has a big impact on the Sterling Pound. The news on amenability to discuss the possibility of tapering the QE by the central bank could support the currency, yet this still remains on the hopeful list. Nonetheless, traders will probably opt to buy across the Eurozone that could push the pound higher as a consequence. There is a positive action in the previous two trading session in major macro data releases and the U.S. greenback could be on advantage today if the pound falls behind or the macro data from the U.K. turns out bearish.

Traders are looking out for Brexit related news, yet, Prime Minister may delays the publication of the government’s plan until the leader’s summit this month. Let along the upcoming GBP data on London is insufficient to induce momentum, except for a correction to the lower boundary of the channel.

There are speeches expected from the  BOE Monetary Policy Committee member Silvana Tenreyro at 10:40 GMT and MPC member Ian McCafferty speaking at 16:00 GMT. Meanwhile, traders will center their attention to the US Trade Balance figures alongside Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter to be released at 12.30 GMT. On a technical note, the pair will rise higher and a major breakout is yet to happen. Readings for short-term will give more gains in the future. We can expect the resistance level to be at 1.3420 / 1.3460 and support level at 1.3370 / 1.3335.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 11, 2018

The pound/dollar pair continued to trade around the 1.3430 region on the back of the failure to create bullish momentum in the previous week, as it was beaten by the major handle and the markets are waiting for further progress in Brexit this week. Due to the scheduled FOMC rate hike in the upcoming week, the interest rate differential of the GBP and the USD is predicted to move in different directions which could hold the Pound on its starting position and push the British currency into the recent lows. Following the recently rejected  Irish border solution, market participants await for further news within this week while the United Kingdom continue to negotiate in looking for the middle ground for the hard-line Brexiteers and the EU leadership in Brussels. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Theresa May was caught in between and trying to find fair solutions for both sides.

The upcoming week is projected to be really busy for the Sterling pound since 4 out of 5 trading session this week brought extreme impact to the UK calendar that could support a high level of volatility for market players. Today has plenty of data for Britain which will be all published at 08:30 GMT, however, the focus will be on the  Manufacturing Industrial Production data which is expected to remain unchanged at  2.9%. The US session today appears to be in smooth sailing according to the economic calendar, but traders might deal with the  G7 summit blowout, wherein US President Donald Trump leave the summit earlier and depart the US’ support of the G7 communiqué, following a Tweet from POTUS aboard Air Force One heads to Singapore for the Trump-Kim summit.

At the same time, the figures for Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Apr), Claimant Count Change (May), Core CPI & PPI input and Core retail sales in the next three consecutive trading sessions. Moreover, the daily chart indicates that the GBP/USD currency pair corrected higher from the lows of 1.3205 alongside the diverging technical oscillators. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had an unexpected move towards the oversold area and bounced back to the GBP, which descends to the levels of the beginning of last week. The Slow Stochastic resumed moving in an upward trajectory. The daily chart of the 50-day and 100-day moving average formed a death star crossover, this means that there is an initial downside potential of the Cable pair to break the 1.3300 region prior attacking the area of 1.3200. The upside of the pair is necessary to break back above the 1.3380 to the 1.3450 target, which is the last week’s high.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 21, 2018

The USD/JPY pair closed higher inside day during the Wednesday session, reflecting uncertainty and expected volatility with a tendency to move up.

The Forex pair also underwent a transition period after the momentum changed to a downturn at the beginning of the week. However, even if the momentum changed, the main uptrend remains solid.

On the other side, there was a short-rally to cover after sellers moved below after a sharp sell-off on Tuesday.

The Japanese yen major pair moved higher on early Thursday with a strong compulsion in purchases from the Wednesday and Thursday highs. Hence, this northward sentiment induces the market to move their positions in the attempt to test the psychological level of 110.859 and the main top at 110.905.

Higher demand for risky assets drove the price action of the pair and losing the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven. On a deeper perspective, the tension on trade war between the U.S. and China is the main impetus of the trend.

The pair is being traded 110.559 and increased by +0.19% or 0.215 at 2.04GMT. It is likely to uphold its positions taking into account rising of stocks and unsettled trade war between the two big nations continues to advance peacefully.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 17, 2018

The British pound rallied a little during the Monday session and reaches the level of 149.50 before apparent signs of exhaustion. Higher than 150 signifies exhaustion in the market with expected resistance. Thus, we could strike on the opportunity to short this pair. It looks like the market has overexpanded and faces strong psychological level above 150.

Although it is still suggested to short this pair in a smaller move, the long-term selling will bring the rates back to 150. A break higher would give the green light to traders in applying the “buy and hold” strategy yet, the strong political tension around Britain could strengthen the Sterling pound for long-term. The pair will continue to chop around and eventually make way for some clarity that the trend lacks as of the moment. For the short term, sellers are anticipated to be present while more sellers will join in the long-term above the trend. Nevertheless, we should keep the possibilities open as it may change anytime. Noise will still be present because of the political tension in the U.K. and global risk appetite. Hence, small trades will be the ideal approach for this market since noise will be the main impulse in overall trading while headlines will likely cause sudden movements in short-term.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 19, 2018

The euro against the U.S. dollar is traded slightly in the area of 1.1650 but profits can be gained during the European session. The uptrend took place in the early hours of Asian market session due to recent bullish trend across the globe booking profits on the dollar. Yet, the outlook of the greenback is still optimistic because of hawkish rhetorics from the U.S. Fed chair Jerome Powell, which would probably affect the European and American session. Stocks on major world market reached a one-month high on Wednesday after strong corporate earnings. Meanwhile, the U.S. surpassed the levels on a three-week high against major currencies with more bidding involving the dollar. Yet, the profit booking activity slowed down the momentum of the dollar for a while. According to Powell, the United States would go for a steady growth in the course of trading and held back risks of the U.S. economy on worsening trade conflict.

The dollar index grew towards 95.4, reaching a three-week high against other currencies and then settled in the area of 95.08 with an increase of 0.2%. Two more rate hikes are anticipated this year from the Federal Reserve in reaction to rising inflationary pressures. On the other hand, the ECB is presumed to raise their rates only in the middle of next year. The eurozone grew for the first time last year since the financial crisis between 2007 and 2008. Yet, the most recent survey of 100 economists results showed growth momentum has already reached the highest point. Nonetheless, the worsening trade war between the U.S. and their trading partners still presents real risks to the eurozone and influenced economists to lessen their growth forecast.