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USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

During last few trading weeks USD is rapidly falling against JPY due to the decrease of the investment attractiveness of the US currency after the slowing of the USA Fed’s monetary policy tightening. In addition, the change of the US regulator’s head affected USD negatively.
Last week favorable Q3 economy growth data were released, and yen grew significantly. There were no key macroeconomic data this week, but the momentum strengthened and the demand on Japanese currency increased, as a result the pair fell by more than 150 points. Yesterday the instrument reached the key support level of 111.00 and reversed into consolidation.
Due to US holidays in the end of the week the significant movement of the pair is not expected.

Support and resistance

In the short term the correction within the downward channel is expected, after the end of which the pair can fall to the levels of 110.50, 109.00.
At the moment the demand on yen is high, which draws the pair downwards, and if US Fed will postpone the interest rate rise to 2018, the instrument can reach the levels of 108.15, 107.50.
On the 4-hour chart technical indicators confirms the forecast, MACD short positions volumes are growing, Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.

Resistance levels: 111.50, 111.75, 112.40, 112.60, 112.85, 113.45, 113.70, 114.00.
Support levels: 111.00, 110.50, 110.20, 109.55, 109.00, 108.15, 107.50.

Trading tips

It’s relevant to increase the volumes of short positions at the current level with the targets at 110.50, 109.00 and stop loss at 112.10.

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GBP/USD: perspectives are unclear

Current trend

Last week pound was growing and reached the maximum since the beginning of October at the level of 1.3360 on Friday.
The investors concern more upon the possible slowing of the monetary policy tightening rate in the USA, than the Brexit negotiations of UK and EU difficulties, where the parties still cannot began to discuss trading agreements due to the fact that the Irish border issue is unclear. Irish government wants to get the guarantees from UK government, that the control on the border between North Ireland and Republic Ireland won’t be implied. Otherwise the Irish party, represented by Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan threatens to block further Brexit negotiations.

Intransigence of the parties and the delaying of Brexit negotiations make business community fears that the deal won’ be done at all, and UK will leave EU without any agreements. This has led to the fact that a number of companies decreased its presence in the country, which can result in the Industrial Production and GDP fall in the UK.
Last week British Office for Budget Responsibility decreased the next year GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 1.5%. The middle term perspectives of the currency are still unclear.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is tending to the level of 1.3366 (Murray [7/8]) and after the breakout can move upwards to the level of 1.3427 (Murray [8/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the levels of 1.3305 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 1.3244 (Murray [5/8]). Technical indicators reflect the growth. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards, Stochastic reversed upwards.

Resistance levels: 1.3366, 1.3427, 1.3488.
Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3244, 1.3183.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3366 with the target at 1.3427 and stop loss at 1.3300.
The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3305 will make short positions with the targets at 1.3244, 1.3183 and stop loss at 1.3340 relevant.

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EUR/USD: Powell strengthened dollar

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the pair was growing to the area of 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]), but was corrected and is now trading around 1.1880.
USD strengthened after Powell’s statements before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate meeting. Today the Committee should make a decision upon the conformation of Fed’s head. Powell noted, that the regulator will maintain the increasing rates and reducing balance-sheets policy and support the employment market and stimulate the inflation. He also supported the banks activity on the stocks markets restriction laws, which will let US financial system be strengthened.

Powell’s statement stimulated the growth of dollar, but it’s unclear, how significant will it be. Today the investors are focused on Trumps meeting with the US Senate Republican Party members, where he will try to persuade them to vote for the tax reform package, but earlier senators Ron Johnson and Bob Corker threatened to vote against the new laws. The result of the negotiations can bring the pair significant volatility.

Support and resistance

The price weakened below the level of 1.1900 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands and can be corrected to the levels of 1.1840 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.1780 (Murray [1/8]). The growth to the levels of 1.2023 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2085 (Murray [6/8]) is possible after the breakout of the level of 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]).

Resistance levels: 1.1900, 1.1962, 1.2023, 1.2085.
Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1780, 1.1718.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1780 and stop loss at 1.1930.
The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.1962 will make long positions with the targets at 1.2023, 1.2085 and stop loss at 1.1930 relevant.

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USD/JPY: the pair has been corrected

Current trend

Today the pair moved away from the resistance level of 111.65 and dropped to 111.38. This dynamics was caused by yet another launch of a ballistic missile by North Korea. International leaders traditionally criticized the launch. Donald Trump said the missile was a threat to the whole world, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in asked North Korea to stop aggression and embark on negotiations. However, the general reaction of the market was not noticeable. The announcement of North Korean officials that the main tasks of the nuclear program had been completed also gives certain optimism.

Political tension pushed economic data backwards, and they are generally negative for yen. October statistics on retail sales was weak. The indicator made up 0.0% MoM and -0.2% YoY. Retail sales in major stores also dropped by 0.77%. According to a monthly report of the Japanese government, the national economy is moderately restoring, but internal consumption does not grow fast enough due to slower salary increase rates thus putting pressure on GDP.

Support and resistance

Right now the price is restoring positions after a morning fall. A key level for the “bulls” is 111.65. Its breakout will open the way for further growth to 112.50 (Murrey [8/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands). Breaking down the level of110.93 (Murrey [7/8]) will open the way for further fall to 110.20 and 109.37 (Murrey [6/8]). Technical indicators show possible upward correction. Stochastic is leaving the oversold area, and MACD histogram begins to reduce in the negative zone.

Support levels: 110.93, 110.20, 109.37.
Resistance levels: 111.65, 112.50, 113.20.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 111.65 with target at 112.50 and stop-loss at 111.10.
The consolidation of the price below 110.93 and the reversal around 111.65 will make short positions relevant with targets at 110.20, 109.37 and stop-loss at 111.30 and 112.00.

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EUR/USD: inflation in Eurozone disappointed investors

Current trend

Today the pair continues to reduce under the influence of weak European statistics. Retail sales in Germany dropped by 1.2% MoM and 1.4% YoY in October. Investors were mostly negative about initial November data on Eurozone inflation. The values failed to reach outlook levels: CPI made up 1.5% (instead of the expected 1.6%), and the basic value of the index remained unchanged and made up 0.9%. Therefore, despite the growth of Eurozone economy, inflation continues to lag back reducing the possibility of material monetary policy tightening by ECB.
During the day the market also waited for the release of October statistics on personal spending in the USA. The indicator is expected to grow which may support further strengthening of the US currency.

Support and resistance

Right now the pair is trading around the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) and in case it is broken through may continue to be corrected to 1.1750 (middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]). Otherwise the price may resume growth to 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]) and further to August maximums at 1.2085 (Murrey [3/8]). Right now the continuation of the fall seems more likely as Stochastic is directed downwards.

Support levels: 1.1750, 1.1596.
Resistance levels: 1.1962, 1.2085.

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions should be opened below the level of 1.1840 with targets at 1.1750, 1.1718 and stop-loss at 1.1860.
Buy positions should be opened from the level of 1.1880 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2085 and stop-loss at 1.1840.

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GBP/USD: the pound stopped strengthening

Current trend

Last week the pair continued to grow and today reached the level of 1.3548 (Murrey [6/8]). By now it has been corrected to the level of 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) but may resume growth as the general background is negative for USD. Investors were disappointed that the Senate stopped the discussion of the tax reform and moved the vote from Thursday to Friday. The market is also unstable due to the news about possible dismissal of the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson due to his recent conflict with President Trump.
On the other hand, the pound is supported by strong data on the UK industrial PMI. In November the indicator grew from 56.6 to 58.2 points which is the best value since 2013. Correction may continue if strong data on ISM industrial PMI are released from the USA. However, the indicator is expected to fall (from 58.7 to 58.4 points).

Support and resistance

Right now the pair is trading around 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) and is trying to move upwards. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 1.3549 (Murrey [6/8]). Breaking through it will open the way for further growth of the pair to 1.3610 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.3670 (Murrey [8/8]). The consolidation of the price below 1.3488 will lead to further reduction to 1.3427 (Murrey [4/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3366 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators provide for correction. Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram started to fall in the positive zone and broke down the signal line.

Support levels: 1.3488, 1.3427, 1.3366.
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3610, 1.3671.

Trading tips

In the current situation buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.3550 with targets at 1.3610, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3510.
Sell positions should be opened below the level of 1.43888 with targets at 1.3427, 1.3367 and stop-loss at 1.3520.

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FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is growing, having failed its strong support just above the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is testing from below its longer MA.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is growing to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite turned up as well, having failed its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 7285.0 (August lows), 7200.0 (September lows), 7130.0 (October 2016 highs).
Resistance levels: 7450.0 (March highs), 7516.0 (July highs), 7545.0 (August highs).

Trading tips

The price keeps trading in a long-term sideways channel remaining near the middle of it.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7285.0 with targets at 7200.0, 7130.0 and stop-loss at 7345.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7450.0 with targets at 7516.0, 7545.0 and stop-loss at 7410.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

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EUR/USD: the pair is waiting

Current trend

During the current week the pair is trading near the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) but is unable to move below it because it is supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In the near future the price may remain within the range of 1.1800-1.1850 although potential of reduction to 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) remains. Still, investors are unlikely to take risks before Friday releases from the US labor market (the indicator is about to reduce from 260K to 200K).

Moreover, market is unstable due to the uncertain situation with the US state debt limit. The Congress has to agree on its increase before Friday, otherwise the financing of governmental structures will be reduced, and some of them may stop working.
Today attention should be paid to November employment data by ADP that are considered an early indicator for federal statistics. The indicator is expected to drop from 235K to 185K causing the growth of the price and the weakening of the US currency.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show possible continuation of the fall. Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram has crossed the signal line from above. Still, one may speak about the opening of short positions only after the price consolidates below the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In this case it may go down to 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [-2/8] for H4). In case the price consolidates above 1.1840, growth may continue to 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]).

Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1930, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.1800 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1850. Buy positions should be opened from 1.1870 with target at 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1840.

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XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis

Current trend

In the H4 chart the price has been showing a downward trend for the second week in a row. By now it has tested the level of 1255.70 and, according to MACD histogram that is increasing in the negative zone and Bollinger Bands directed downwards, it ready to continue reduction. In case of reversal the price may be corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1266.00 (correction by 23.6%).

D1 chart is more interesting. The price has broken out the lower border of the horizontal channel (around 1265.00) within which it has been trading since September. By now the quotes have potential for further reduction to the gathering of corrections at 1242.00 (50,0% for W1, 76,4% for D1). However, to do so they would have to break through the upward fan. The key area for the “bulls” is 1265.00 (gathering of 38.2% correction for W1 and 61.8% for D1). In case the price returns to the side channel, growth may continue to 1279.50 (correction 50.0% for D1, middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1297.00 (gathering of corrections 23.6% for W1 and 38.2% for D1). Indicators show mixed signals. MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone. Bollinger Bands start to diverge confirming the formation of the downward trend. However,  Stochastic has entered the oversold area which may cause the formation of a buy signal.

Trading tips

Sell positions should be opened below the level of 1255.00 with target at 1242.00 and stop-loss at 1262.00.

Alternative scenario

Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 1265.00 with targets at 1279.50, 1297.00. Stop-loss should be placed around 1257.00

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Today the pair rose to the level of 1.3515 after the UK and the EU entered into intermediary agreements. According to them, the UK has to grant special rights to 4 mln EU citizens living in its territory, pay 40 to 60 mln euro for withdrawal, and eliminate excessive control at the border of North Ireland. Now the parties may start discussing the trading agreement, but it promises to be even more complicated. Before that Theresa May pointed out that she would try to enter into a free trade contract with the EU under privileged conditions, but it is still unclear what the UK government is ready to trade for it. The absence of clearance may put pressure on the UK businesses and therefore the pound. During the day GBP was also supported by positive statistics: the volume of industrial output in October grew by 3.5%, and the volume of processing industry – by 3.9%.

Right now the pair is being corrected, but the price may reverse if the data from the US labor market released today is weak. The number of workplaces is expected to drop from 261K to 200K. Similar data by ADP released earlier confirmed the negative trend (the indicator reduced from 235K to 190K).

Support and resistance

Right now the price is testing the level of 1.3427 (Murrey [4/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands), and in case it is broken down, may continue to decrease to 1.3366 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3305 (Murrey [2/8]). In case the level of 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) is broken out, the price may continue to grow to 1.3550 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.3610 (Murrey [7/8]). Technical indicators show the continuation of the fall. Stochastic is leaving the overbought ares, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3366, 1.3305.
Resistance levels: 1.3488, 1.3550, 1.3610.

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions may be opened below 1.3427 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with targets at 1.3366, 1.3305 and stop-loss at 1.3465.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.3488 with targets at 1.3550, 1.3610 and stop-loss at 1.3455.

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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair opened the week with upward correction continuing to act on the mixed November data from the US labor market. The number of nonfarm payrolls was above expectations (228K) but still reduced compared to the previous value (244K). Moreover, hourly growth of salary failed to reach the forecast levels and made up 0.2%. Generally, these data should not have an impact on the decision of the Fed’s members to increase the interest rate again during its December meeting, but it may be of importance in the long run.
The last Fed’s meeting this year is scheduled for this week and will be interesting for the investors not only because of the long-awaited decision on the interest rate but also due to follow-up statements, a press conference, and inflation and economic growth outlooks. In November the market received a number of negative signals indicating possible slowdown in the tightening of the monetary policy due to insufficient inflation growth in the country. At first it was pointed out by Janet Yellen, and then after the release of the recent Fed’s minutes it turned out that the chairwoman was supported by a number of members as well. If Yellen confirms her negative view of the situation, USD may get considerably cheaper.

Support and resistance

Right now the price is moving to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it and the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]) growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise the fall will resume to 1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed upwards, Bollinger Bands are narrowing before considerable movement, and MACD is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions may be opened below the level of 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1810.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1810.

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USD/CAD: Murray analysis

Current trend

Since October on the daily chart the pair is trading above the Ultimate Resistance of Murray ([8/8]) around 1.2695, but cannot break the level of 1.2940 (Murray [+2/8]) and is trading within the horizontal channel. Now the price is trying to reverse into fall to the lover border of the range 1.2695. However, it needs to consolidate below the level of 1.2817 (Murray [+1/8]), as the price is set near it. Stochastic confirms the possibility of the decrease, entering the overbought zone, which reflects the perspective of a reversal. In addition, the price is near the temporal border, where the direction of the movement usually changes. If the price cannot break the level of 1.2817, it can grow to the levels of 1.2940 and 1.3000 (Murray [5/8] for H4).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2940 ([+2/8]), 1.3000 ([5/8] for H4).
Support levels: 1.2817 ([+1/8]), 1.2695 ([8/8]), 1.2573 ([7/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 1.2817 with the target at 1.2695 and stop loss at around 1.2860.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2940 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.2840.

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Brent Crude Oil: oil tries to reclaim positions

Current trend

On Tuesday, the Brent price underwent significant fluctuations. First, it reached two-year highs, outpacing the mark of $65.00 per barrel, but then adjusted to the area of 62.60. The growth of quotes was caused by reports on the suspension of the operation of the largest North Sea pipeline, Forties Pipeline System, which transported 40% of region’s oil from 85 fields. However, the enthusiasm of investors quickly dried up, giving way to fears that the physical restriction of the supply of the North Sea blend could lead to its ousting from the Asian markets by other types of oil from the Middle East.
At the moment oil prices are making a new attempt at growth, taking advantage of a significant reduction in commercial oil reserves in the United States. According to the API, it amounted to 7.382 million barrels. In addition, prices were supported by OPEC chairman Mohamed Barkindo, who said that the surplus of world oil reserves fell to 130 million barrels, while last month it was 154 million barrels. This fact indicates the gradual return of the oil market to stability. Probably, these data will be reflected in OPEC's monthly report on the oil market that is coming out today. Also we should note the evening release of data on oil reserves in the US from the EIA, which are also expected to show reduction (by 3.78 million barrels). Finally, one can not discount the factor of the Fed meeting.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is in the region of the upper boundary of the Murrey channel ([5/8]) at 63.28, further price growth is hampered by the middle Bollinger Bands’ line. The potential for further recovery of quotes to the levels of 64.05 (Murrey [6/8]) and 65.84 (Murrey [7/8]) is available, as turned up Stochastic shows. However, fixing the price below the 63.28 mark will give the prospect of resuming the decline to 62.50 (Murrey [4/8]), 61.72 (Murrey [3/8]), and 60.93 (Murrey [2/8]).

Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72, 60.93.
Resistance levels: 64.05, 64.84, 65.62.

Trading tips

In the current situation, short positions may be opened below the level of 63.28 with targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop-loss at 63.60. Long positions should be opened from the level of 63.70, with targets at 64.00, 64.84 and stop-loss at 63.30.

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LiteForex: XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis

Current trend

On the 4-hour chart the price is growing after the reversal around 1240.00. Now the “bullish” targets are the level of 1260.05 (correction 38.2%) and 1267.50 (correction 50.0%), approximately coinciding with the lower border of the sideways channel for D1 chart and being a key level for the further growth. If the price is set below the level of 1250.90 (correction 23.6%, the price can return to 6 months lows at the area of 1240.00.

On the daily chart the price оrebounded from the correction cluster 1242.00 (50.0% for W1, 76.4% for D1) and is now trying to grow through the upward upcoming fan. Key “bullish” level is the correction cluster around 1265.00 (38.2% for W1 and 61.8% for D1) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands behind it. After the breakout of the levels the price can return to the long term horizontal channel and can grow to the levels of 1279.50 (correction 50.0%) and 1297.00 (correction cluster 23.6% for W1 and 38.2% for D1). However, the possibility of the reversal of the price 1265.00, which is the strong “mirror” resistance and return of the price to the area of 1242.00 is high.

Main scenario

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1250.00 or after the rebound at the level of 1265.00 with the target at 1242.00 and stop loss 1256.00 and 1268.00.

Alternative scenario

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1267.50 with the targets at 1279.50, 1297.00 and stop loss around 1264.00.

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LiteForex: EUR/USD: the pair remains in the downward channel

Current trend

The European currency against USD dollar remains in the side consolidation stage in the long term despite its wide channel. Euro had been consolidating against USD until the end of November due to the fall of demand for the US currency. However, dollar was strengthened by positive data on the main sectors of the US economy, namely strong December releases on the labor market, inflation, key indexes, and industrial output.

Right now the pair is trading in the wide downward channel. Today it received support from positive data on key Eurozone indexes. The upward impulse is likely to remain today due to the absence of key released from the USA. A set of data is expected from Germany on Tuesday and Wednesday and may give the pair dynamics. The main macroeconomic releases for the USA (final GDP and labor market data) are due at the end of the week.

Support and resistance

The downward trend is likely to remain until the end of the year in view of growing demand for USD after the Fed’s decision to increase the interest rate and in view of positive fundamental background. The pair may gradually go down to 1.1600, but before that it should break through the strong support level of 1.1690.
Technically, the pair remain in the medium term downward channel increasing pressure on the European currency. Indicators fail to show direction: MACD in the D1 chart is near the zero mark, and Bollinger Bands have reversed horizontally. Therefore, an alternative scenario will be the consolidation of the pair within the wide side channel.

Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1690, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1575, 1.1530, 1.1500, 1.1470.
Resistance levels: 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.1980, 1.2030.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.1600 and stop-loss at 1.1870.

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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: Murrey analysis

Current trend

In the H4 chart the price has been trading within the range of 63.28 ([5/8])-62.50 ([4/8]) for the third session in a row. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 63.28. In case of its breakthrough growth may continue to 64.06 ([6/8]) and 64.84 ([7/8]). However, the drivers on the week before Christmas may be insufficient, and it will remain within the said trading range.

Generally, technical indicators show the possibility of growth: Bollinger Bands start to rise, and Stochastic is also directed upwards. One may speak about considerable reduction to 61.72 ([3/8]) and 60.93 ([2/8]) only after the price consolidates below 62.50 ([4/8]) which seems unlikely in the short term.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 62.50 ([4/8], central line of Murrey range), 61.72 ([3/8], bottom of the channel), 60.93 ([2/8])
Resistance levels: 63.28 ([5/8], top of the channel), 64.06 ([6/8]), 64.84 ([7/8]).

Trading tips

In this situation buy positions should be opened if the price consolidates above 63.28 with targets at 64.06, 64.84 and stop-loss at 63.00.
Short positions should be opened if the price moves away from 63.28 with targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop-loss at 63.45.

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LiteForex: NZD/USD: correction may continue

Current trend

This week the pair is showing stable reduction and by now it has reached the level of 0.6958 (Murrey [2/8]). US dollar received support from the news on the tax reform that is about to be approved by the Congress. Today is the day of the last vote, after which the bill will be sent to President Trump for signing.

On the other hand, NZD is under considerable pressure of fundamental data. The index of prices for dairy products by Global Dairy Trade yesterday reduced to 3.9% which is the biggest fall since 2016. The trading balance of New Zealand was also weak. In November its deficiency exceeded forecasts and made up 1,193 mln. In the evening statistics on New Zealand GDP for Q3 2017 will be released. The indicator is expected to drop from 0.8% to 0.5% due to a long period of dry weather that caused the reduction in the volumes of production of agricultural products including the main export product – milk.

Support and resistance

Currently the pair is trading around the level of 0.6958 (Murrey [2/8]) and in case of its breakdown may drop to 0.6897 (Murrey [1/8]) and 0.6835 (Murrey [0/8]). One may speak about the growth of the price to 0.7080 (Murrey [4/8]) and 0.7140 (Murrey [5/8]) only after it consolidates above 0.7020 (Murrey [3/8]). Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards, confirming the formation of the upward trend. However, Stochastic points downwards indicating the possibility of downward correction.

Support levels: 0.6958, 0.6897, 0.6835.
Resistance levels: 0.7020, 0.7080, 0.7140.

Trading tips

In this situation sell positions may be opened if the price consolidates below 0.6958 with targets at 0.6897, 0.6835 and stop-loss at 0.6990.
Buy positions should be opened above 0.7020 with target at 0.7080, 0.7140 and stop-loss at 0.6990.

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LiteForex:EUR/USD: the tax reform failed to strengthen USD

Current trend

On Wednesday US Congress finally approves the draft of the tax reform that provides for the reduction of the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%. However, the US currency reacted to this fact only by slowing down its fall, as the decision was expected and included into the price.

However, the reduction of the tax burden on business may have long-term consequences for the US economy. First of all, the authors of the reform expect corporate income to increase, new workplaces to be creates, and salaries to rise. Another purpose of the reform is the repatriation of capitals into the USA. Trying to avoid taxes, major companies keep about $2 trln on foreign accounts. The law offers them a special deal: capitals may be repatriated one time at the rate of only 15.5%. However, the US economy will be able to feel the positive effect of the reform only in several years, while the budget deficiency will be evident at once. According to Bloomberg, it will take about $1-1.5 trln to implement the project.

The US currency may start strengthening in case of release of strong final data on the US GDP. According to forecasts, in Q3 2017 the growth of the indicator may make up 3.3% which is the biggest increase since Q3 2016.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is around 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]). In case this level is broken out growth may continue to 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]) and 1.2024 (Murrey [+1/8]). Stochastic is approaching the overbought area which creates the possibility of correction, but one may speak about it only when the price consolidates below 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]). In this case the price may drop to 1.1780 (Murrey [5/8]) and 1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]).
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

In the current situation buy positions may be opened above 1.1900 with targets at 1.1962, 1.2024 and stop-loss at 1.1870.
Sell positions should be opened below 1.1840 with targets at 1.1780, 1.1718 and srop-loss at 1.1890.

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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil prices opened the week with a slight correction, but as a whole remain within the uptrend. Prices are supported by the optimism of Iraqi energy minister Jabbar Al-Luaibi, who said on Monday that the balance in the oil market can be reached in the first quarter of next year, and prices will grow due to the increase in demand from India and China. Market participants are also encouraged by the data of Baker Hughes, according to which the number of drilling rigs in the US does not increase for the second week in a row and now stands at 747 units. It should be noted that the number of drilling rigs peaked in August (768 units) and since then has fluctuated around 730-750. This may mean that investors no longer commit in the development of production capacities and are preparing to make profit from existing ones. We should also note that in the short term, the easing of oil prices could be affected by the commissioning of the Fortis pipeline stopped in mid-December due to a fracture. Currently, it is tested it with high pressure.

Support and resistance

Currently, the price is trying to begin correction, but its development to the level of 63.28 (Murrey [1/8]), 62.50 (Murrey [0/8]) will become possible when fixing the price below 64.06 (Murrey [2/8], middle line Bollinger Bands). Otherwise, the price may enter the Murrey channel and reach 65.62 (Murrey [4/8]) and 66.40 (Murrey [5/8]). Technical indicators do not provide a clear signal. Bollinger Bands pointing up, confirming the uptrend, Stochastic tries to turn around at the overbought zone.
Support levels: 64.06, 63.28, 62.50.
Resistance levels: 64.84, 65.62, 66.40.

Trading tips

Under current conditions, it is possible to sell below 64.06 with targets 63.28, 62.50 and stop-loss at 64.40. Buying is worth above 64.84 with targets 65.62, 66.40 and protective order 64.50.

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445 (edited by MikhailLF 2017-12-27 13:58:07)

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LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the 4-hour chart the price has been growing for the third week and it has reached the level of 0.7770.
In case of reversal of the price, the downward correction to the level of 0.7705 (correction 23.6%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. If the price is set above the level of 0.7770, the further growth is possible, but its potential seems restricted, as Stochastic is in the overbought area and can form a sell signal in the nearest future.
On the daily chart the price is tending to the corrections cluster at the area of 0.7780 (50.0% and 38.2%); in addition, in this area the downward correctional fan line 38.2% goes. All the facts, supported by Stochastic, which has entered the overbought area, shows the possibility of the fall to the levels of 0.7700 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7615 (correction 61.8%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). If the price is set above the level of 0.7780 the further growth to the levels of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%) and 0.7885 (correction 23.6%) is possible, but the price should break through the downward fan.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7780 with the targets at 0.7700, 0.7615 and stop loss at 0.7820.

Alternative scenario

Long positions can be opened at the level of 0.7800 with the targets at 0.7845, 0.7885 and stop loss around 0.7870.


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LiteForex: AUD/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the 4-hour chart the price has been growing for the third week and it has reached the level of 0.7770.
In case of reversal of the price, the downward correction to the level of 0.7705 (correction 23.6%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. If the price is set above the level of 0.7770, the further growth is possible, but its potential seems restricted, as Stochastic is in the overbought area and can form a sell signal in the nearest future.
On the daily chart the price is tending to the corrections cluster at the area of 0.7780 (50.0% and 38.2%); in addition, in this area the downward correctional fan line 38.2% goes. All the facts, supported by Stochastic, which has entered the overbought area, shows the possibility of the fall to the levels of 0.7700 (correction 50.0%) and 0.7615 (correction 61.8%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands). If the price is set above the level of 0.7780 the further growth to the levels of 0.7845 (correction 61.8%) and 0.7885 (correction 23.6%) is possible, but the price should break through the downward fan.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7780 with the targets at 0.7700, 0.7615 and stop loss at 0.7820.

Alternative scenario

Long positions can be opened at the level of 0.7800 with the targets at 0.7845, 0.7885 and stop loss around 0.7870.


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LiteForex: USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

US dollar continues to reduce against the majors due to low trading volumes. Market players are cautious waiting for the release of the minuted of the Fed’s December meeting. No important macroeconomic releases are expected from Japan until the end of the week. At the same time, US currency is under pressure from central banks of other countries, as the growth of the global economy in 2017 catalyzes the tightening of the monetary policy in a number of key states leading to the reduction of differences between the rates.

The main event of today is the release of the minutes of December Fed’s meeting. Investors hope to receive new data on further rates of the US fiscal policy. Moreover, market volatility may be caused by simultaneous release of gradual inflation build-up index and industrial PMI, as well as the data on construction expenses in the USA. The pair is extremely sensitive to inflation indicators, as its low level in the USA prevents the Fed from implementing its monetary policy plans.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart the instrument has been corrected to 112.25. A strong support level is 112.00. Breaking through it will be a strong signal for the opening of short positions. Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, and the price range has slightly reduced. A key resistance level is 112.40. MACD histogram has reached its minimal level in the negative zone, and the strong sell signal is still valid. Stochastic fails to give a clear signal for entering the market.
Support levels: 111.60, 111.80, 112.00, 112.25.
Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.60, 112.80, 113.15, 113.35.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 112.25 with targets at 111.80, 111.60 and stop-loss at 112.50. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 112.45 with targets at 112.85 and stop-loss at 112.25. The period of implementation is 1 day.

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LiteForex: Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Oil prices are growing.
Yesterday Brent went up by 2.40% and reached the level of 67.96, which is last 3-years maximum. The instrument is supported by preliminary API Crude Oil Stocks change data, which reflect the decrease of the resources by 4.992 million barrel in a week. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change release is due at 17:30 (GMT+2) today. If the data confirms the decrease, Brent will be significantly supported.
The growth of the prices is supported by tense situation in Iran, where anti-Government protests are expressed all over the country.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators reflect the maintenance of the upward trend, but the technical correction possibility is not excluded.
Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards. MACD volumes are growing in the positive zone, forming a buy signal. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, which can reflect the reversal of the price.

The instrument is now testing the level of 67.96 (Murray [7/8]). If it cannot consolidate above this level, the correction to the levels of 67.18 (Murray [6/8]), 66.76 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible.
The breakout of the level 67.96 will let the price grow to the level of 68.75 (Murray [8/8]).
Resistance levels: 67.96, 68.75.
Support levels: 67.18, 66.40, 65.62.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 67.96 with the target at around 68.75 and stop loss 67.75.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 67.18 with the targets at around 66.40–65.62 and stop loss 67.40.

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LiteForex: GBP/USD: the pound is pressured by permutations in the British government

Current trend

Last week, the pair tested 1.3600 mark, but today it adjusted to the level of 1.3550 (Murrey [7/8]). The uncertainty of the market is caused by the expectation of the reshuffle in the government of Theresa May, which is to be held on Monday and Tuesday.

However, it is expected that the reshuffle will not affect key cabinet ministers, such as David Davis, Philip Hammond, and Boris Johnson. Perhaps the First Secretary of State, the actual deputy prime minister, will be the current health minister Jeremy Hunt, a consistent supporter of Brexit. Earlier this position was occupied by Damian Green, but in December he was forced to resign because of a sexual scandal that shook the domestic political position of Theresa May. The current reshuffle should restore stability to the British government before the next round of Brexit talks.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price dropped below the 1.3550 mark (Murrey [7/8]) and may continue to decline to the level of 1.3427 (Murrey [6/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands) and 1.3305 (Murrey [5/8]). Technical indicators generally allow the possibility of a downward correction. Stochastic is pointing downwards. MACD histogram and price chart demonstrate slight diversion. One may speak about resuming growth after the price consolidates below the level of 1.3600. In this case, the growth can be continued to the levels of 1.3670 (Murrey [8/8]) and 1.3795 (Murrey [+1/8]).
Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3305, 1.3215.
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3670, 1.3795.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3510 with targets at 1.3427, 1.3305 and stop-loss at 1.3560. If the price consolidates above 1.3600, long positions could be opened with targets at 1.3670, 1.3795 and stop-loss at 1.3570.

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LiteForex: WTI Crude Oil: Murray analysis

On the 4-hour chart, the price has grown to the area of the upper border of the Murray trading range 62.50 ([8/8]), but has not tested it and was corrected to 61.72 ([7/8]). The consolidation of the price below this the level and the middle line of Bollinger Bands can lead to the development of the downward correction to the levels of 60.94 ([6/8]) and 60.15 ([5/8]). Stochastic confirms it, reversing downwards near the overbought area. On the other hand, as MACD in the positive zone and Bollinger Bands and MA are growing, the upward trend, within the correction can develop, maintains. The price can grow to the levels of 63.28 ([+1/8]) and 64.00 ([+2/8]) after the consolidation above the level of 62.50.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 62.50 ([8/8]), 63.28 ([+1/8]), 64.00 ([+2/8]).
Support levels: 61.72 ([7/8]), 60.94 (6/8]), 60.15 ([5/8]), 59.37 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 61.72 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with the targets at 60.94, 60.15 and stop loss at around 61.85.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 62.50 with the targets at 63.28, 64.00 and stop loss at around 62.10.

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