EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 11, 2017

The market had a long day yesterday since there are few market drivers present in the market which resulted in a low volatility and low liquidity as well. This naturally occurs during the first day of the week, except when there is a special progress happened over the weekend, but there were none. There are expectations for further actions for this day since traders already recovered from its weekend blues and started to continue trading.

The EURUSD does not move a lot in the past 24 hours by which the pair moved on a certain side of the 1.14 region without any development in a particular direction. The US dollar remained steady and it’s quite surprising that American traders failed to lead the run during a follow-up action on Friday. Moreover, the NFP report showed a moderately strong position that relieved the fears and uncertainties towards the US economy and this also help the greenbacks to stabilize.
On the first part of the day, it is anticipated that US traders will support the USD to gain further, however, unable to accomplish it. The concerns regarding the ability of the Trump administration to implement their policies remain to continue, but there are barriers in every step. The possibility that the United States will face difficulty for the next couple of years increases in consideration with the changes in policy. This also explains the hesitation of investors and traders about not engaging with the greens, even if the employment report was stable.

Some reports say that the ECB may not deal with tapering in the next months but it did not bring such impact against the EUR.

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases except for the speech from a Fed member later this day. It is projected for more actions this day on the back of market’s inactivity but the favor remains for the euro-dollar pair.

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 17, 2017

The Euro against the U.S. dollar puts its high levels at risk following poor data results on Friday that boosted the pair. The dollar has been negatively positioned in the past few weeks to take advantage of any kind of recovery. The NFP results put a high data keeping hopes up that this would result in a reversal because of the U.S. economic data and anticipated to recover the dollar but it did not happen.

In the previous week, the dollar has kept a sustained decline but the market is focused on Yellen and late data released on Friday. Yellen’s speech was not as expected and she was not concerned with her less hawkish speech which will further place the dollar in a difficult situation. Hence, the dollar bulls will have to rely on the Friday data to appeal for traders to buy since Yellen could not support the dollar. Furthermore, both the retail sales data and the CPI data has failed expectation which has worsened the situation.

The retail sales came in with weakened growth while the CPI data came in at 0.1% compared to the anticipated value of 0.2% that pulled the dollar growth down and pushed the EUR/USD pair up. A steeper correction level is hoped for but the lackluster growth of the U.S. economic data raises concern and the next rate hike would depend on the next reports. Yet, the next rate increase will most likely not happen in the short-term.

For today, there is no major news from the Eurozone as well as in the U.S. which in effect, will continue the market sentiment on Friday. Nevertheless, traders should get ready for the week ahead.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 19, 2017

The British currency against the U.S. dollar had a correction during Tuesday session. The pair dropped towards 1.3030 level bringing the trend in a weaker position on Friday after the inflation data came out with negative data.

The pair is now on a crucial condition which will presumably persist in the upcoming trading sessions. The pair could break above the region to move forward in short-term. In the past few weeks, it is notable that the economic data from the UK did not meet expectations. This opposes the trend by the start of the year when the U.K. data has been impressive and exceeded expectations amid of political and economic problems brought by the Brexit negotiation.

The BoE has been anxious regarding the monetary policies including rate hikes in the future and the economic data has a vital role in the decision-making process. Hence, negativity in the data would make them be irresolute.

The GBP/USD pair was able to brush aside issues on weak data and Brexit concerns in the past few weeks due to the low dollar in the market. Moreover, BoE reinforces this and adds more pressure. However, if the dollar steadies, the attention will go back to the BoE and the economic data unless both works side by side. On the other hand, this would be more complicated for the pound bulls.

For today, there are no major new from Britain or from the United States. Choppiness is anticipated to carry on close to the 1.3050 region since the trend is now in consolidation and ranges.

GBP/USD  Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017

The market had a difficulty trading the British pound against the U.S. dollar pair for the past week. After the release of the weaker CPI and retail sales data from the U.S. last week, the pair surged to 1.3030 region and reach beyond the 1.31 region for a short period of time for that day. The traders anticipate the trend last week to be continued since the greenback is not performing well as of now.

The weakened dollar did not help the pound that frustrated traders. The pair underwent correction lower than 1.30 level during the early days of the week which was influenced by the minor recovery of the dollar which was also exhibited by the euro. It resulted to poor performance in the lower channel. Moreover, the less-than-expected economic data from the U.K. deviated the strong trend of data in the past few months. Although, it is anticipated that the market could recover when the dollar depreciated once again but it failed.

The dollar weakened as the end of the week approaches with the outcome of investigations regarding the business transaction of Trump concern rises. Although, most of other currencies take advantage of this situation to move higher. As for the GBP/USD pair, it stays relatively calm. Despite the strong data of retail sales report from the U.K., it was not sufficient to push the pair higher as it closed the week lower than 1.30 level. It seems that there are risks to incur losses in the coming week influenced by the uncertainty from Brexit which continues to affect the British currency.

For today, there are not many economic events for the week as the end of the month approaches and data subsided. For next week, the FOMC statement from the U.S. is anticipated to be announced. Hence, the GBP/USD pair is anticipated to proceed with a weaker trading condition close to the 1.3030 regions as a significant psychological level.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 25, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has been in consolidation for the past 24 hours and it seems that the support is sufficient enough. This somehow gives a hint that the pair is ready to move up since there is a strong support in the 1.30 region. As the month end approaching, it is anticipated for the money flow to be different come to the end of the month and there will be choppiness in trades to keep the traders to be interested in the market.

The pair pushes to reach the 1.30 region and was able to sustain higher than the region majority of the day. For the first day of the week, both the volatility and liquidity was low since there is low trading activity. The pair attempted to reach the 1.3050 level for the day but was countered by strong selling that pushes it back with strong support towards the 1.30. It won’t be long when the next bullish trend happens to move towards 1.31.

Risks and uncertainties are still present in trading the pound amid the Brexit negotiation process and the market as a whole. This is why the GBP/USD pair has still not moved out of its restrictions. Although, the Bank of England supports the British currency through its statements and minutes of the meeting that increases the chances for a rate hike in the succeeding months. Yet just last week, the usual strong economic data from the U.K. has had a choppy trading mixed of good and bad results of the data. This has put pressure on the pound and had a big impact.
For today, there is no major news from the U.K. Even so, month end flows are expected to happen throughout the day that keeps the GBP/USD afloat.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: July 27, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar moved sideways in the beginning of the Wednesday session. There is sufficient support found at the 1.30 level which pushes the trend to the upside. Later on, it is possible for the market to break the current psychological levels with the FOMC announcement to be released in the afternoon. Nevertheless, the markets were quiet as they wait for any hints from the Federal Reserve.

If traders can maintain traders more than the 1.30 level, the GBP/USD pair could move higher towards 1.3125 level and even much higher. There are still buying opportunities on the lows in the market since the British pound became cheaper.

Buying lows in the market are suggested instead of selling until a breakdown occurs below the massive support level. Unless it reaches lower than 1.2950, it is alright to sell the pair. However, if it drops even much lower, it is possible to drop even much more that would change the trend when it happens.

Buyers are more aggressive and it would not take long before they return to the market. If the trend gaps in the upper region, it will most likely reach the 1.3450 level which is possible after some time. Many major events that would come out from politicians could affect the British currency. The uptrend will presumably to continue in the long-term. Also, the pullbacks could offer opportunities in the market at a cheaper level.

USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: July 31, 2017

The USD/CAD was able to obtain the highly-needed bounce on Thursday, which was previously mentioned since the week started. It is followed by the decline of the pair in the past few weeks because of the strong level in which the pair sits together with the possibility that this region is the buyer’s final stand.

As the strength of the dollar recovered, it helped the pair to soar high and affirmed lot of things in the following days. However, there is already a warning that the downward will be very intact and needed much time to return.

It is also mentioned that bears will use any bounce from the commodity-linked pair as an opportunity to sell prices highers. Any hints of recovery seen on Friday had plunged conclusively while the USDCAD appeared to be weak as usual.

The sluggish stance was triggered by the GDP figures of Canada and the United States. But the US data showed a marginally better than expected, while the Thursday’s data from the US prompted the market to have higher expectations from the gross domestic product. On one side, the Canadian GDP came in very strong and able to have another rate increase soon.

This led to a reversal of the whole trend since yesterday and the pair lies in below the 1.24 level which might become weaker.

Ultimately, there are no any major economic releases either from US or Canada. Therefore,  consolidation is safely expected together with ranging of the dollar which is at disadvantage because of the developments over the White House during weekends.

Furthermore, it is predicted the USDCAD to remain in pressured area as the markets look forward to a plenty of data expected in the latter part of the week.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017

The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.

The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.

This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.

The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 8, 2017

The US payrolls data came in stronger than expected on Friday which buoyed the greenbacks and reacquires some of its gains yesterday. The German Industrial production unexpectedly declined but was able to maintain the single European currency.

The move made by the administration of Donald Trump relative to tax incentives help the dollar to bolster and must sustain the interest rates.

The inflation in the eurozone and the United States is expected to be released on Friday, this further support trader to determine whether growth will overrun inflation outlook.

The EURUSD edged a little bit higher yesterday and bounced off the support at 1.1774 region near the 10-day moving average. The resistance entered the 1.1910 level around the highs last week.

The momentum of the euro-dollar pair became negative while the MACD histogram developed a crossover sell signal. This appeared due to the spread that crosses under the 9-day moving average of the spread. The indicator jumped from positive to negative zone and confirmed a sell signal. The index prints in the red with a descending trajectory pointing to lower prices for the EURUSD.

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 10, 2017

The GBP/USD hovered around the tight range of 60 pips after breaking the significant support level at 1.3030. Due to the absence of some economic and fundamental indicators, the Cable was pushed through the consolidation and ranging period.

The pound-dollar pair remains to be sluggish and attempted to break back the weak support that became the resistance. This was immediately broken by a lot of selling on Wednesday. As of this writing, it currently trades under the 1.3000 mark.

We don’t expect any economic releases from the United Kingdom within this week, as the volatility and further actions needed to complete from last week.

The Bank of England announced for some growth and British inflation fears. The UK was strained to live with uncertainties due to Brexit procedures while traders should track down upcoming UK economic statistics in order to measure how does Britain deal with the EU exit.
Due to lack of fundamental and economic drivers in the market, the GBP/USD struggled in the past couple of days and the weakness of the Cable was clearly seen by everyone.

It is projected that the weakness will continue in the near-term when the British economic data came under renewed focus.

The United Kingdom was able to manage well in terms of economic indicators, however, the statistics became choppy previously. This triggered concerns about the impact of Brexit which begins to take place.

Ultimately, the manufacturing data from the United Kingdom was released with bulls that expect for strong results in order to raise the plunging Sterling pound. In addition to it, the US PPI data will be issued and should be watched carefully to assess whether the American data will resume recovering. Moreover, expect higher volatility for the GBPUSD this day.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 14, 2017

The U.S. dollar rebounded on Friday as it reached the 109 level which seems to be appealing to most traders. There is a high volatility for this currency pair with noises involved between North Korea and America. People are looking for safety currencies such as the Japanese yen to move forward.

There are various noises found at any moment which seems to persist. After some time, there will be more opportunities for long-term although sellers are predominantly taking over for short-term.

It is suggested to trade in small positions amid a highly volatile environment. However, if the price breaks higher than the 110 level which indicates the strengthening of the market that could reverse the trend and induce higher volume of purchases.

A pullback to the 105 level is possible since there is more support found in there. This would make trading more complicated and it is anticipated to have sudden fluctuations which could induce fear globally. Overall, volatility will be a big problem with the currency pair.

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: August 23, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen surged at the beginning of the Tuesday session although there has been difficulty in the former uptrend line which has a breakout recently around the level of 141. Hereinafter, they have been moving in a bullish stance. The 140 level will most likely be the support level with a bit of consolidation with a negative tone.

Although the Japanese yen has been weaker during the trading session, the pound has been moving in a similar way that lessens the risk of the pair to collapse. There was a fresh, new low signals selling of the pair. If the pair breaks over the 141 handle, there would be a bullish sentiment.

The market is sensitive for a risk appetite which would induce the market reaction to the stock markets, commodities, and other markets. It won’t take long before the market left and if this persists to rise but there is still a risk with the Brexit process. The volatility will return to the market soon. Trades have to careful of the weakened market condition which could pose a problem in trading.