US Budget Concerns Casts Doubt on Fed Plans

    The US Federal Reserve is more than ready to raise its interest rates this coming June, but the possibility of the Congress rattling up the markets by slowing down progress on increasing the debt ceiling of the US economy has cast a shadow of doubt on the Fed’s next scheduled rate hike on September. Prior to this development, the Fed has been saying that they are currently planning to implement two more rate hikes before the year ends, but has now reverted to saying that the third rate hike for year might be in for some delays if the market gets shaken by possible disagreements on fiscal policies.

Goldman Sachs Higher Rates to Gain More Clients

The Goldman Sachs Bank U.S.A. intends to increase its rates on client deposit by 1.2 percent from the previous 1.05 percent. The rate hike makes them higher than other financial institutions including CIT Bank, Synchrony Bank, and New York Community Bank's My
Banking Direct. The average rate is at 0.06 percent 0.06 percent as reported by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

They are searching for ways to improve lending in money management and investment banking category which they said to had a rough time with. In 2016,  they introduced Marcus as their primary approach to consumer lending. This rate hike move hopes to expand profit of Goldman Sachs and appeal to additional Main Street clients which will eventually give bigger gains. Also, these deposits open a more robust type of funding and this would have stayed longer during uncertainty.

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Italy and Qatar to Continue Economic Ties

Countries, Italy and Qatar decided to maintain their deal regarding close integration on economy and finances. Even the decision of some Arab Countries along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is to break diplomatic, travel and trade agreement with Qatar.

The consensus was succeeded by a meeting between Italian Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and Qatari Finance Minister Ali Sherif Al-Emadi held in Rome on Monday.

The two countries said in a joint statement that they discussed the ties in a very friendly atmosphere in accordance with its outstanding relationships on economics and politics

The visit of Al-Emadi in Italy is part of the leader’s European tours, hence he will also go to Berlin, London, Paris, and Washington.

The sovereign states of Arab which include Saudi and UAE ended its agreement with Qatar in the past week, they believe that Doha supports the finances of Iran together with other Islamist groups, but Doha refuted this accusation. While al-Elmadia stated earlier on Monday that his country is able to protect its economy against these charges.

In an interview with CNBC, he further mentioned that those countries that inflicted such sanction have the tendency to lose money due to the damage it wrought in the business sector of the region.

"A lot of people think we're the only ones to lose in this ... If we're going to lose a dollar, they will lose a dollar also," the leader added.

US Stocks Plunge after Brent Crash

    The majority of US stock prices crashed on the back of an ever-worsening bout of slump on both industrial and oil shares, eclipsing recent price rallies caused by growth in biotech and aviation technology companies. Brent crude prices dropped to just under $45 per barrel and is now at par with WTI in terms of living with a highly bearish market as US stockpiles continue to be above average and Libya resumes its production. The US dollar also subsequently dropped in value while US Treasury yields did not exhibit any major changes after it was able to regain its losses.

IMF Cuts Growth Forecast for US Economy

The International Monetary Fund watered down its economic outlook for the United States due to the high level of risk regarding the plans of current president Donald Trump in boosting growth in the economy. According to their forecast, U.S will gain an annual rate of 2.1 percent for this year which is a positive increase compared with 1.6 percent recorded in 2016, however, it is comparatively lower to 2.3 percent estimate on April.

The Washington-based organization also cut its forecast for 2018 saying that the country will have a hard time in reaching the 3 percent target determined in the first budget of the president. The latest growth numbers are part of the annual review made by the IMF to the American economy which is released on June 27. Report says the forecast was trimmed down because it was clearly stated that various parts regarding the expenditure project and administration tax are still ambivalent.

With these concerns, the institution said that the final decision is made in order to abate any assumptions concerning the programs of Trump will get the Congress approval and rather to work with predictions that ongoing policies will remain consistent.

Based on IMF’s projections, the yearly GDP growth is 2.1 percent for 2017 and 2018 and this will decrease by 1.9 percent by 2019 while in the year 2020 it will only reach 1.8 percent.

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Oil Recovered As Bonds Progressed

Oil improved after a sharp decline and both of the European stocks and bonds were in the red on Thursday as the market awaits for the ECB minutes. This would determine the next actions of the central bank. Although, the Fed Reserve showed mixed signals on Wednesday. Bond yields climbed higher again as the benchmark of U.S. Treasuries rose more than 2.34 percent which increased the global borrowing rates.

The market was caught in between the ambiguous results from FOMC minutes and the U.S. employment statistics on Friday. The beginning of G20 summit has been the center of attention after the long-range missile test this week launched by the North Korea.

Emerging Markets and Bonds Selloff Continues

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen reached a four-month high while both the bonds and the emerging market currencies are under pressure once again on Tuesday. There are looking for higher interest rates in expanding number of major economies.

There are higher expectations as the MSCI world index is steadily progressing as it rose for a third day although it declined after the Europe stock market dropped. This staggered as the bonds yields from euro zone continued its uptrend in March but halted on Monday as the market turned its attention to the monetary tightening of large economies globally.

The Federal Reserve aims to adjust the large collection of bonds to ease the financial crises where speeches were given on Wednesday while the both the ECB and BoE officials are scheduled to talk on Tuesday. They are divided on whether to proceed with a rate hike yet the overnight index swaps market are priced high and 80 percent probability for a second rate hike by the end of the year.

Yellen Assessed US Economy Growth Target

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday that the 3 percent target of the current administration of Trump is “quite challenging” to cope with.

US President Donald Trump pledged during his campaign in 2016 to improve the economic growth by 4 percent, however, the officials trimmed it down to 3 percent and claimed that it might take some time to complete.

Moreover, Yellen mentioned that is  "very disappointing," and gave a forewarning that the potential growth of the American economy is now lowered to 2 percent. The chairwoman was asked if it's still possible for the country to gain its three percent goal in the next five years and she answered,  "I think it would be quite challenging."

She further stated that higher growth rate requires a great increase in productivity growth which is currently at 0.5 percent, hence, an extreme surge is needed to accelerate and at least few points are regarded as significant.

During the second day of her semi-annual testimony, she said to the Senate Banking Committee that the 3 percent expansion would be wonderful and she’d love to witness it.

The incumbent Chair of the Board is scheduled to end her term on February 3, 2018, if President Trump did not reappoint her for another 4-year term.

Yellen also underlined the things that hamper productivity growth which is related to the dilemma of company reports about looking for qualified laborer, emphasizing the urgency to focus on training worker and further education.

UK Economy Slowed Down As Consumer Spending Decline

The British economy is expected to slow down this year, following its slowest pace since 2012 considering the fact that the citizens of Britain had cut back due to increasing inflation, based on the latest predictions that could wreak an impact towards consumer spending.
The annual GDP growth is projected to decline by 1.5 percent this year and 1.4 percent next year because of the stumbling demand shown on the forecasts of accountants PwC.

The growing cost of day-to-day products dropped as 2017 started on the back of strong expenditure that mold the economy into a much better shape during the end of 2016 compared with the outlook of well-known economist for the aftermath of the Brexit referendum.

Nevertheless, the effects of the sharp downturn in the pound value after the EU exit triggered for the inflation surge which is 0.5 percent only in June 2016 through 2.9 percent in May. The most recent inflation data will be issued this morning as the PwC projected that it will keep on the average of 2.9 percent up to 2018.

According to the new forecast, the growth for private expenditure fell to 1.5 percent which is a significant downward revision made by PwC during earlier estimates on March that expects 2 percent consumption growth.

The Office for National Statistics said that the consumption expenditure gained 1.7 percent growth in 2016.

Major Central Banks Policies Turn Hawkish Forecast

There is a big expectation for major central banks not to implement easing of monetary policy despite of small hints in the momentum of inflation as shown in the poll from Reuters. At the same time, it implies that there is a momentum on analysts particularly to Europe, India, and China that represents about 40 percent of the total population worldwide. They predicted that the global economy will get improve rather than “worse” next year.

Although, there is still economic risks amid a decade of monetary stimulus has passed and
aggregated asset purchases for a total of $15 trillion. Growth forecast has improved to 3.6 percent in 2018 from the current 3.5 percent for 2017. Yet, inflation prediction is declined than last year were greater than half of the central banks polled are foreseen to cut rates or tighten it.

In September, the Fed is presumed to curtail its $4 trillion worth of portfolio bonds and rate hike for the third time by the last quarter of the year while the European Central Bank plans to tighten its monetary policy after an “ultra-easy” policy actions rooted on the progress of the economic growth.