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		<title><![CDATA[Forex Software — Backtests over 10 years without crashing & the longer backtest debate]]></title>
		<link>https://forexsb.com/forum/topic/5412/backtests-over-10-years-without-crashing-the-longer-backtest-debate/</link>
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		<description><![CDATA[The most recent posts in Backtests over 10 years without crashing & the longer backtest debate.]]></description>
		<lastBuildDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 13:33:58 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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			<title><![CDATA[Re: Backtests over 10 years without crashing & the longer backtest debate]]></title>
			<link>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/30076/#p30076</link>
			<description><![CDATA[<p>I have a hard time believing the summaries in Metatrader, and of course, their data and real time feeds are suspect as are the wonderful tools they have for cheating the retail trader.</p><p>Depending on how a strategy is constructed, 50,000 bars is quite adequate, and in some cases 15,000 will do the job.</p><p>If the developer is &#039;gambling, and just trades whatever the software gives him, then he will need a lot of bars. However, if the developer sets some good &#039;pre conditions&#039; in the generator.... he can get by with far less.</p><p>It is up to the developer to be selective as to what he uses for criteria. and thereby ensure good resuilts.</p><p>For example, in one portfolio, I have MA 50 &gt; Ma 100 locked. to try to assure&nbsp; trend. Of course many currency pairs are not trending every day, I have a strategy on many charts ion order to get trades. </p><p>I try to be very selective, thereby reducing the number of bars required for testing.</p>]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[null@example.com (Blaiserboy)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 13:33:58 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/30076/#p30076</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[Re: Backtests over 10 years without crashing & the longer backtest debate]]></title>
			<link>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/30070/#p30070</link>
			<description><![CDATA[<p>Hi Popov </p><p>Thank you for your prompt, to the point and helpful reply as always; and on a Sunday..!</p><p>Much appreciated</p>]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[null@example.com (vidagig_13)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 10:28:39 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/30070/#p30070</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[Re: Backtests over 10 years without crashing & the longer backtest debate]]></title>
			<link>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/30069/#p30069</link>
			<description><![CDATA[<p>I&#039;ll make very short notes to your post at that time.<br /> Your machine has a very good CPU but 4GB Ram is below the current standards. I&#039;ve seen screenshots of users machine with 32GB Ram that manage the program a way better. Probably you have to upgrade your system to at-least 8GB, which should be perfectly enough for most cases (64 windows required).</p><div class="quotebox"><blockquote><p>I have seen Metatrader backtests of systems over 10 years with backtest at 99% modelling quality on &#039;every tick&#039;</p></blockquote></div><p>That &#039;every tick&#039; is just wording <img src="https://forexsb.com/forum/img/smilies/smile.png" width="15" height="15" alt="smile" />. There is no such thing as ticks in MT backtester. FSB always uses&nbsp; &#039;every tick&#039; calculation&nbsp; as per MT definition even without Tick data.</p><div class="quotebox"><blockquote><p>Perhaps you can consider finding a way to make it possible to change FSB so it can handle a 10 year backtest.</p></blockquote></div><p>I&#039;m considering to add a separate tool that will be able to calculate a strategy backtest using big data files. However this will be a separate function because I&#039;m afraid making a real-time backtesting with such files is not possible for now.</p>]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[null@example.com (Popov)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 10:14:55 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/30069/#p30069</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[Backtests over 10 years without crashing & the longer backtest debate]]></title>
			<link>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/30068/#p30068</link>
			<description><![CDATA[<p>Hi there</p><p>I have searched here on this subject of backtests over long time periods and the consensus opinions seem to be that 1 -3 year backtests are good enough. I have seen Metatrader backtests of systems over 10 years with backtest at 99% modelling quality on &#039;every tick&#039; - that show a smooth equity curve and great results - and perform long-term very well and in line with the backtests expectations in live trading. I know the opinions on here and elsewhere on the quality of Metarader backtests is mixed - but that&#039;s a separate issue I have asked about in another post.</p><p>It seems to me that it&#039;s logical that a system that survives 10 years backtest (of varying market conditions) with a smooth equity curve is much better than one that survived shorter backtests of 1 - 3 years - and if you test a shorter backtest on &#039;out-of-sample data it usually fails.</p><p>I noted the instructions and warning here about manually increasing the Max Bars in a historical data set causing problems with the computer. I have tested this and experienced it. After a few adjustments to the strategy it takes longer and longer (minutes) to calculate and quickly hangs the program and computer in a very nasty way requiring a reboot that goes very slowly. This worries me about the risks to my computer of this repeated occurrence.</p><p>This on an HP EliteBook i7 with 4gb Ram and Nvidia 2gb graphics card - not a monster but a decent machine that handles processor intensive tasks like rendering video very well.<br />The FSB system I&#039;m working on has 3-4 opening and one closing logic slot and uses 2 x indicators and 2-3 timeframes (5 min, 1 hour and 4 hour).</p><p>I tried working with 2 x sets of 5 years (setting the data horizon) and the machine handles it better - but the problem is - I get it working for the 1st 5 years then test it on the next 5 years and the results are poor - and vice versa.</p><p>Questions: <br />1. So, my 1st question is how people can logically assert that a backtest over 1 - 3 years will yield a strategy likely to be as robust as one that shows a smooth equity curve over 10 years. Most systems fail on out-of sample data.</p><p>2. Is there&#039;s any trick or technique I can try to work with a full 10 years price data without hanging my computer in 5 minutes.</p><p>Request:<br />Perhaps you can consider finding a way to make it possible to change FSB so it can handle a 10 year backtest.<br />I think both the results and the FSB Platform will gain much credibility from this improvement.</p><p>Clearly there&#039;s some amazing programming and very hard work over many years that&#039;s gone into the development of this excellent platform; and it seems that being able to handle large data sets would be a big advance in it&#039;s ability and credibility.</p><p>Any input much appreciated.</p>]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[null@example.com (vidagig_13)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Sun, 21 Jun 2015 09:52:53 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/30068/#p30068</guid>
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