<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
	<channel>
		<title><![CDATA[Forex Software — Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism...]]></title>
		<link>https://forexsb.com/forum/topic/4788/pseudomathematics-and-financial-charlatanism/</link>
		<atom:link href="https://forexsb.com/forum/feed/rss/topic/4788/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
		<description><![CDATA[The most recent posts in Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism....]]></description>
		<lastBuildDate>Wed, 21 May 2014 03:34:32 +0000</lastBuildDate>
		<generator>PunBB</generator>
		<item>
			<title><![CDATA[Re: Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism...]]></title>
			<link>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/25132/#p25132</link>
			<description><![CDATA[<p>I think you are quite right about over fitting, I have read many articles about this subject.</p><p>I try to use few variables, look for simple solutions.</p>]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[null@example.com (Blaiserboy)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Wed, 21 May 2014 03:34:32 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/25132/#p25132</guid>
		</item>
		<item>
			<title><![CDATA[Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism...]]></title>
			<link>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/25031/#p25031</link>
			<description><![CDATA[<p>...The Effects of Backtest Overfitting on Out-of-Sample Performance<br /><a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2308659">http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? … id=2308659</a></p><p>I would like to draw your attention to this very important paper. Anyone using a program such as FSB must read it, otherwise he/she will surely be disappointed.</p><p>This paper corroborates my opinion that avoiding over-fitting is probably the weakest point in FSB. For example: in one wants, in FSB one can filter strategies with disappointing &quot;out-of-sample&quot; results. It happens however that, by definition, such a filter would immediately turn the supposedly &quot;out-of-sample&quot; into &quot;in-sample&quot; data, misleading the strategist into thinking that he/she found a winning strategy. Most likely, as the paper demonstrates, a strategy found with this algorithm would be a disaster when tested with real out-of-sample data.</p><p>Programs such as FSB require therefore a considerable knowledge of statistics in order to be rightly used. Read the paper carefully. I hope this paper can enable practitioners of adopting the best practices when devising strategies to maximize profit, avoid big disappointments, and keeping expectations at the right level.</p>]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[null@example.com (nquental)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Sun, 11 May 2014 20:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/25031/#p25031</guid>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
