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	<title type="html"><![CDATA[Forex Software — Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism...]]></title>
	<link rel="self" href="https://forexsb.com/forum/feed/atom/topic/4788/" />
	<updated>2014-05-21T03:34:32Z</updated>
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	<id>https://forexsb.com/forum/topic/4788/pseudomathematics-and-financial-charlatanism/</id>
		<entry>
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Re: Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism...]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" href="https://forexsb.com/forum/post/25132/#p25132" />
			<content type="html"><![CDATA[<p>I think you are quite right about over fitting, I have read many articles about this subject.</p><p>I try to use few variables, look for simple solutions.</p>]]></content>
			<author>
				<name><![CDATA[Blaiserboy]]></name>
				<uri>https://forexsb.com/forum/user/2491/</uri>
			</author>
			<updated>2014-05-21T03:34:32Z</updated>
			<id>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/25132/#p25132</id>
		</entry>
		<entry>
			<title type="html"><![CDATA[Pseudo-Mathematics and Financial Charlatanism...]]></title>
			<link rel="alternate" href="https://forexsb.com/forum/post/25031/#p25031" />
			<content type="html"><![CDATA[<p>...The Effects of Backtest Overfitting on Out-of-Sample Performance<br /><a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2308659">http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? … id=2308659</a></p><p>I would like to draw your attention to this very important paper. Anyone using a program such as FSB must read it, otherwise he/she will surely be disappointed.</p><p>This paper corroborates my opinion that avoiding over-fitting is probably the weakest point in FSB. For example: in one wants, in FSB one can filter strategies with disappointing &quot;out-of-sample&quot; results. It happens however that, by definition, such a filter would immediately turn the supposedly &quot;out-of-sample&quot; into &quot;in-sample&quot; data, misleading the strategist into thinking that he/she found a winning strategy. Most likely, as the paper demonstrates, a strategy found with this algorithm would be a disaster when tested with real out-of-sample data.</p><p>Programs such as FSB require therefore a considerable knowledge of statistics in order to be rightly used. Read the paper carefully. I hope this paper can enable practitioners of adopting the best practices when devising strategies to maximize profit, avoid big disappointments, and keeping expectations at the right level.</p>]]></content>
			<author>
				<name><![CDATA[nquental]]></name>
				<uri>https://forexsb.com/forum/user/7477/</uri>
			</author>
			<updated>2014-05-11T20:39:53Z</updated>
			<id>https://forexsb.com/forum/post/25031/#p25031</id>
		</entry>
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