AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

The fall of the Australian dollar that started last week was caused by important Australian economic indicators such as Manufacturing PMI and retail sales volume that appeared to be worse than forecast. On the other hand, the policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia aimed at the moderation of AUD strengthening was confirmed by the Tuesday decision to keep the 1.5% interest rate unchanged. Australian trading balance released on the same day appeared to be with proficiency and above outlooks which is a result of weakening of the natonal currency. Last month the national trading balance demonstrated deficiency caused by the strengthening of AUD for almost two months.

A speech by deputy head of the Reserve Bank of Australia Guy Debelle was also published yesterday. The main focus of the statement was on the reduction of the volume of foreign invesments in the industrial and national debt sectors. As a result, the pair AUD/USD continued to fall and reached the zone of 0.7530-0.7550.
No important releases from Australia are due today. Speaking about the USA, the market is waiting for the usual labour market release published in the first Friday of the month, namely on the changes in nonfarm payrolls at 14:30 (GMT+2) with negative outlook, as well as for the weekly report by Baker Hughes on active oil platforms in the USA at 20:00 (GMT+2) with positive forecast. Moreover for the last two days investors have been paying attention to the results of the meeting between the US President Donald Trump and the PRC Chairman Xi Jinping.  

Support and resistance

The correction of the pair is the most likely scenario for today.  
Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7420, 0.7310.  
Resistance levels: 0.7540, 0.7600, 0.7660, 0.7740.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with target at 0.7600 and stop-loss at 0.7470.
Alternatively, short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7540 with targets at 0.7420 and stop-loss at 0.7640.

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XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

Gold quotes are traditionally moving upwards along with the growing of geopolitical tension in the world. After the news that the USA plan a tough response to the actions of North Korea, the prices of the metal grew by 1.49% on Tuesday. Today gold tested the resistance level of 1279.68 (a maximum since 10.11.2016) after which correction followed. Due to the absence of important macroeconomic releases today and the aggravation of the geopolitical situation the scenario of further correction development seems likely.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators show the preservation of the growth potential, not excluding the scenario of short-term correction.

Bollinger Bands are directed upwards indicating the preservation of buy activity. However the price broke through the upper line which is a sign of rate correction. The level of 1261.15 (corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger Bands) look like the main target of correction.

MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing. Breaking through the level of 1260.18 and consolidation above it will be a signal of growth continuation. In this case the growth will continue to the level of 1288.67.
Support levels: 1270.90, 1266.00, 1261.15, 1256.00.
Resistance levels: 1279.68, 1288.67, 1296.18.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 1270.90 with targets at 1266.00, 1261.15 and stop-loss at 1273.00.
Buy positions may be opened above 1279.68 with targets at 1288.67 and stop-loss at 1276.60.

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Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Current week was characterized by little trust in US dollar and strengthening of commodity assets, including petrochemicals that are the most politically dependent. The growth of oil was supported by an OPEC report published in April 12 that reflected the growing demand expectations for the upcoming year and indicated the reduction of world oil reserves in general (except for the USA). On the same day US Energy Information Adminstration informed about the reduction of oil reserves by 2.2 mln barrels. As a result, after breaking through the zone of 56.00, Brent updated its 5-weeks minimum. Yesterday the growth of the asset was being corrected. It happened after the publication of a report by the US Department of Energy stating that oil production will reach an unprecedented level in 2018. Correction did not exceed the limits of critical values and did not turn into a reversal. IIt is likely it was a result of locking in profits by certain market players in view of long holidays.
Today the market will pay attention to retail sales and consumer prices index from the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2) with a negative outlook, as well as to weekly data in the number of active oil platforms at 19:00 (GMT+2). The growth of the latter indicator has a negative impact on oil prices.

Support and resistance

The most likely forecast for today is the continuation of correction at the level of 55.00-57.20.
Support levels: 55.00, 54.40, 53.75.
Resistance levels: 56.15, 57.20, 58.45.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 56.15, 57.20 and stop-loss at 55.50.
Alternatively, one may open sell positions from the level of 55.00 with targets at 54.40, 53.75 and stop-loss at 55.40.

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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Yesterday the EUR/USD pair grew due to the slight weakness of the USD. The European markets were closed due to the Easter holidays, which affected the volatility and liquidity in the morning. The EUR began to grow against the USD, when the USA session opened, and the pair reached the level of 1.0670.
The traders wait for the upcoming Elections in France. Despite the fact that one of the major candidates Le Pen, who supports the tight policy, is losing her positions in the opinions pall, the major part of the electorate still didn’t make up its mind. Taking in consideration the election experience in the other countries, the objectivity of the opinion polls is doubtful, so the electing of the right wing candidate is still possible. In this scenario the Eurozone will have a hard time, as Le Pen supports the France leaving the EU.
The Presidential Elections in France are due at Sunday.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair is lowering towards the strong resistance level of 1.0700. MACD is below the zero line, but is ready to cross the signal line, its volumes decreasing. Stochastic is in the neutral line, pointed upwards, giving a buy signal.
Support levels: 1.0650, 1.0590, 1.0550.
Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0770, 1.0830.

Trading scenario
Buy the pair is the price is set above the level of 1.0700 with the target at 1.0770, stop loss is at 1.0670.
Open short positions below the level of 1.0650 and target at 1.0590 and 1.0550, stop loss is at 1.0680.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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WTI Crude Oil: technical analysis

WTI Crude Oil, D1
On D1 chart the instrument dropped down and corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in positive zone with its volume at the minimum, the signal line is crossing the zero line and the body of the histogram from below, which is a signal to open long positions. Stochastic signal line is in the neutral zone and is directed downwards. If the signal line crosses the border between the neutral zone and the oversold zone will indicate possible reversal of the price.
WTI Crude Oil, H4
On H4 chart the instrument reached the lower border of Bollinger Bands and slowed down its fall. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, the signal line is crossing the zero line and the body of the histogram from above, which is a signal to open short positions. Stochastic is in neutral zone, moving along the border with the oversold zone and not giving any clear signal.

Key levels
Support levels: 51.00, 50.50, 50.00, 49.30, 48.00, 47.15.
Resistance levels: 51.70, 52.50, 53.00, 53.50, 54.10, 54.50, 55.00.

Trading tips
In view of technical indicators, opening short positions from the current price with targets at 50.50, 50.00 seems preferable. Stop-loss should be placed on the level of 51.80. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
Buy positions may be opened at the level of 52.00 with targets at 52.50, 53.00 and stop-loss at 51.70. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Last week the pair was traded controversial. In the beginning of the week the AUD was lowering due to the RBA meeting minutes, which confirmed the “dovish” policy and kept the interest rate on the minimum level. On Thursday and Friday the USD was lowering after the publication of the negative employment market and building data.
Yesterday the USD continued to fall due to the negative secondary business activity data. Despite the fact that the AUD/USD trading day closed in the red zone the whole dynamics is positive. The pair strongly consolidated above the level of 0.7500.
Today is ANZAC Day in Australia, so the banks don’t work and there is no news and publications, so the traders should pay attention to the USA Consumer Confidence publication (expected to be negative) and the New Home Sales data (expected to be negative, too).
On Wednesday the Australian Consumer Price Index is worth traders’ attention (expected to be positive). If it meets the expectations and the corresponding RBA decisions follows, the AUD will strengthen in the nearest future.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7380, 0.7310.
Resistance levels: 0.7615, 0.7570, 0.7680, 0.7750.

Trading scenario
Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7615, 0.7680, stop loss is at 0.7480.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7490 with the target at 0.7440, 0.7380, stop loss is at 0.7530.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
In the beginning of the previous week the pair USD/JPY reversed from its 5-month minimum. The growth of yen stopped after the publication of Japanese trading balance (much worse than forecast) last Thursday. This week the growth of the pair continued despite the fall of USD. The pair continued to weaken after yesterday's decision of the Bank of Japan to keep the interest rate unchanged in the minimum level. The pair reached its 4-weeks minimum and broke through the resistance level of 111.20. A number of important macroeconomic releases were published in Japan tonight: consumer price index, labor market data, production output forecast, and the volume of retail sales. All indicators lost a number of positions but investors failed to show any evident reaction so far.
No important releases from Japan are to be expected until next week. From the USA the market is waiting for the GDP data with a negative outlook at 14:30 (GMT+2). PMI Chicago (also with a negative forecast) is due at 15:15 (GMT+2), and consimer sentiment index with a neutral outlook will be published at 16:00 (GMT+2). Statements by FOMC members Harket and Brainard are due at 19:15 (GMT+2) and 20:30 (GMT+2) respectively.
The most likely scenario for today is the continuation of the upward correction.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 110.20, 108.90, 107.40.
Resistance levels: 111.20, 112.20, 113.20, 114.00.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened at the market price wuth targets at 112.20, 113.20 and stop-loss at 110.30.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 110.20 with target at 108.90 and stop-loss at 111.10.

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of Bollinger Bands, having formed 5 consecutive closes below the line. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is trying to leave the oversold zone. The Composite is turning up as well, having reached its critical oversold levels.

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing from below the border of the oversold zone that coincide with its longer MA. The Composite keeps developing Bullish dynamics.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.79 (March lows), 16.38 (October 2015 highs), 16.15 (November 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 17.08 (October 2016 lows), 17.19 (December 2016 highs), 17.67 (local highs).

Trading tips

The price is testing a strong support near 16.80. Indicators suggest a high chance of an upward correction.
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 17.08, 17.19 and stop-loss at 16.80. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 16.70 with the target at 16.38 and stop-loss at 16.80. Validity – 2-3 days.

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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

Canadian dollar has been falling against USD for two weeks which causes active growth of USD/CAD.

This week the pair broke through a strong resistance level of 1.3700 around which it stayed last February. The fall of the Canadian currency happened in the absence of growth of US dollar that remains in the narrow flat for the second week and in view of a small number of important releases from Canada. The most likely fundamental reasons for this dynamics may be falling oil prices that Canadian dollar has always been sensitive for. Another strong factor is the growth of return on American bonds. Recently this factor has been one of the main reasons for the decrease of all reserve currencies against USD.

The most important news of today will be the data on Canadian trade balance at 14:30 (GMT+2). A small reduction of balance deficiency from CAD 0.97 to 0.80 trln is expected which is a positive factor. At the same time the forecast for the US trading balance states the deficiency in the amount of $900 mln. The data on the volume of industrial orders from the USA will be published at 16:00 (GMT+2). The indicator is expected to drop to 0.4% which will have a negative impact on USD. A statement by the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz is scheduled for 22:25 (GMT+2).
A likely scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's strengthening.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is returning to the upward movement zone in which it has remained since last May. The support line of this trend being also the lower border of channel D1 (blue) has confirmed its strength several times. The upper zone of this range around the levels of 1.4030-1.4160 may be the target of the pair.
Support levels: 1.3700, 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3450.
Resistance levels: 1.3840, 1.4030, 1.4160.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.3840, 1.4030 and stop-loss at 1.3640.
Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.3700 with targets at 1.3600, 1.3535 and stop-loss at 1.3800.

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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

From the beginning of the month the AUD is actively lowering against the USD due to the quite poor macroeconomic data from the Australia, such as the lowering of the April trade balance surplus and the RBA decision to keep the interest rate on the same minimum level.

Last week the new home sales in Australia lowered to this year minima, also the copper and gold prices lowered significantly, as Australia keeps the leading positions on export of these materials. As a result the price reached the 4 month minimum, and only the support zone at the level of 0.7350-0.7400 was strong enough to reverse the pair into the corrections due to the quite controversial traders’ reaction to the positive USA employment market data on Friday. The USD was trading in the narrow flat for the two weeks, but after the publications of these important data, which were better than expected, ended the last week with a significant lowering. The investors’ reaction will probably appear this week.

Today the traders should pay their attention to the 3 and 6 Month Bill Auctions data. Tomorrow the Australia Retail Sales data are worth traders’ attention: the growth of the index to the level of 0.3% is expected.
The development of the correction due to the absence of the important news is expected today.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7310, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7530, 0.7490, 0.7440.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7440, 0.7490 and stop loss at 0.7360.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7380 with the target at 0.7310, 0.7200 and stop loss 0.7470.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last two weeks the NZD showed the best results among the commodity currencies and assets, which were lowering against the USD. Last week the NZD was supported by the growth of the dairy prices and the increase of the employed, and was trading flat above the level of 0.6865, which is almost the year minimum.
Today the traders are waiting for the key publications from the USA. The Export Price Index and Import Price Index will be published. The export is expected to lower and the import is expected to grow, which will decrease the trade balance. The 10-Year Note Auction data will be published, and the profitability of them is growing form the last August, which is positive for the USD. The Monthly Budget Statement is also expected, but it will affect the price insignificantly.

The NZRB interest rate decision will be published tomorrow, the rate is expected to stay on the minimum level of 1.75%. The Monetary Policy Statement is also expected, which will affect the dynamics of the pair.
The insignificant growth of the pair is expected today.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6865, 0.6800, 0.6710.
Resistance levels: 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7075, 0.7170.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7000 and stop loss at 0.6870.
Sell the pair from the level of 0.6865 with the target at 0.6800 and stop loss at 0.6900.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

After the long fall the gold price met the support at the zone of 1210.00-1220.00, after which it reversed to the upward correction. The upper border of the channel D1 (green), which has been supported the price for the 4 months, coincided with the 50% Fibonacci from the last half a year price growth. Despite the strong technical support, the fundamental factors are still pressing the gold: the growth of the US bills yield and the expectations of the USA FRS interest rate rise in the June meeting

Today the market participants are waiting for the USA publications: the Retail Sales and Inflation data (14:30 GMT+2). The Retail Sales index is expected to grow to 0.6% in April from 0.5% in the previous month.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1210.00, 1190.00, 1170.00.
Resistance levels: 1230.00, 1250.00, 1265.00.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 1230.0 0.1250.00 and stop loss at 1210.00.
Open short positions from 1210.00 with the target at 1190.00, 1170.00 and stop loss at 1230.00.
Implementation period: 1-3 days

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