Date : 4th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, led by Japan, where the Nikkei closed with a 2.5% gain after an upward revision to the manufacturing PMI reading and underpinned by catch up trades, after yesterday’s holiday. The Hang Seng underperformed and showed a -0.27% loss in late trade, with energy stocks under pressure after the front end WTI future fell back below USD 53 per barrel. See details below.  U.S. and U.K. stock futures, however, are moving higher, after broad gains on most markets yesterday and as a strong round of world PMI releases underpins growth optimism and risk appetite. At the same time inflation may be moving higher which is pushing up yields, although even if Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to jump higher and clear the 1.0% mark today, we don’t see the ECB reversing its decision to extend QE purchases through to the end of the year. Today’s European calendar also has Spanish inflation data, the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and from the U.K. BoE money supply growth and lending data.

US Data Yesterday: The U.S. ISM rise to a 2-year high of 54.7 from the prior high of 53.2 that was also seen last June left the ISM further above the 7-month low of 49.4 in August, and last December’s 48.0 expansion-low. The mix of available sentiment surveys should allow the ISM-adjusted average to sustain the November surge to a 16-month high of 53 from 51 in October and 50 in August and September. We saw a 49 expansion-low in January and February, and previously in October of 2012. We’re seeing a factory sector rebound that is lifting most producer sentiment and consumer confidence measures in the face of rising oil prices, a reversal in the inventory headwind, and hopes for deregulation and fiscal stimulus in 2017. The economy still faces lingering headwinds from a sluggish world economy, a strong dollar, and still-high oil inventories. U.S. construction spending popped 0.9% higher in November after a 0.6% October gain (revised up from 0.5%), though September was bumped lower to -0.2% from unchanged. The headline reading is better than expected. Spending is up 4.1% y/y. Strength was broad-based.

European Data Yesterday: German HICP jumped to 1.7% y/y, the highest rate since 2013, and starting to eye the 2% limit for price stability. That the headline rate would jump higher at the end of the year on base effects was widely expected, but the number did still come in far above the median forecast and the preliminary breakdown confirmed that most of it was due to energy price increases, which turned to 2.5% y/y in December, from -2.7% y/y in November. German jobless numbers dropped -17k in December, much more than anticipated and with the November decline also revised to -6k from -5k, which confirms that the improvement on the labour market continued at the end of 2016. The jobless rate remained at a record low of 6.0%, with much of the remaining gap due to structural issues and a mismatch of skills on the demand and supply side.  The December UK manufacturing PMI smashed forecasts in rising to 56.1 from 53.6 in November, which was revised up from 53.4. The median forecast had been for a 53.4 outcome, while the 56.1 reading is the best since June 2014, indicating brisk expansion in the sector.

US Stocks and Oil swing wildly: Another swing and a miss on Dow 20k has sent stocks scrambling lower, accompanied by a reversal in the dollar, which has reversed lower as well. WTI crude has also doubled back in the melee, falling 2% $52.60 after climbing over 2.5% to clear $55.0 after its probe over $55 earlier (swing of nearly 5%) amid concerns about Libya upping production. Ford announced plans to cancel a $1.6 bln factory in Mexico, perhaps as collateral damage from the Trump tweet storm with U.S. execs, though Ford is up 2.5% (-5.5% 1-year return). GM was criticized by Trump for manufacturing its Cruze model in Mexico, which the company downplayed. The Dow stalled out at 19,938.5, eased below 19,800 before rallying into the close to end the day at 19,881.

Main Macro Events Today

Eurozone HICP – The much higher than expected German and Spanish inflation numbers forecasts for the overall Eurozone reading have been increased significantly  to 1.3%, from 0.6% y/y in the previous month. Yields jumped higher on the report yesterday, but while the numbers add to the argument of the critics of Draghi’s expansionary policy, it is unlikely to see the ECB changing its mind on the QE expansion, as the uptick in inflation was already factored into central bank forecasts. It will however bring the question of when the ECB will start “real tapering” that is start a program of cutting back purchases with the intention of phasing them out, back to the agenda.

FOMC Minutes – Though the report would usually be highly anticipated by the markets, its importance has been diminished by the dot-plot showing estimates for three quarter point hikes in 2017, and by the fact that the usually dovish Chair Yellen seemed fully supportive of the more hawkish stance. There’s little the minutes can show that we don’t already think we know. Surprises are unlikely but still potentially high influential.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2017.

Main Macro Events This Week

Though the December U.S. jobs report was largely plain vanilla, it was good enough to support rising “animal spirits.” The surprise headliner of the report, however, was the 0.4% surge in earnings, which caught the markets’ attention. The question is, was this a one-off gain, or is it a harbinger of a pick-up in wage and price pressures that will push the FOMC into a more aggressive rate hike path? Several Fed voters have already begun to incorporate some Trump stimulus into their projections and are expected to continue to voice that opinion as Republicans are itching to expeditiously move ahead with their pro-business agenda in 2017.

United States: The back-loaded U.S. economic calendar in the wake of the slightly inflationary December employment report could be a little anti-climactic, but there will be a host of potentially relevant fundamental data with retail sales headlining on Friday. Expectations are for 0.7% increase and 0.5% ex- autos. Prior to that anchor release, consumer credit (Monday), Wholesale sales are projected to rise 0.5% in November (Tuesday). The weekly MBA mortgage and EIA energy inventory reports (Wednesday) are on tap next. Import prices are set to increase 0.8% (Thursday) in December given the rebound in oil prices from long-term depressed levels, after their prior 0.3% drop, while export prices are pegged to sink 0.2%. Initial jobless claims should snap back 19k to 254k for the week ended January 7 after their inter-holiday plunge the week prior. With retail sales will come December PPI also due (Friday), Inflation data will be closely monitored after the uptick in earnings/wage growth in December payrolls. Business inventories are forecast to rise 0.7% in November, while preliminary Michigan sentiment may rise to 98.5 in January.

Fedspeak: Fed Chair Yellen returns this week on Thursday.  Already Saturday Minneapolis Fed dove Kashkari took part in a “Too-Big-To-Fail” panel and Governor Powell participated in a panel on “Low Interest Rates and Financial Markets.” Monday has updates from Boston dove Rosengren and Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart. Thursday also brings Philly Fed’s Harker on the economic outlook, Chicago’s Evans on the economy and policy, and St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard on the economy and policy. Harker speaks again on economic mobility on Friday-the-13th.

Canada: Policy relevant economic data remains front and center on Canada’s calendar in the run-up to the January 18 BoC announcement and Monetary Policy Report. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey is first out of the gate this week (Monday). The slate of housing figures is heavy, with housing starts (Tuesday), building permits (Tuesday), the new home price index for November (Thursday), December Teranet/National HPI (Thursday) and December existing home sales (Friday) all due.

Europe: The year is only a week old, but the focus has switched as inflation is making a comeback and survey indicators continue to come in higher than expected. The central bank just got its QE extension in on time ahead of the uptick in HICP rates, which of course come mainly on the back of base effects from energy prices. The calendar this week will not really add anything new to the outlook for 2017 and data are mainly backward looking with November production numbers from Germany, France and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as final French December HICP readings. The latter are not expected to bring a major surprise and we expect the headline rate to be confirmed at 0.8% y/y, which is in line with consensus. The most up to date number is the initial estimate of full year 2016 GDP from Germany on Thursday, where we look for an acceleration in the overall growth to 1.9%  from 1.7% in 2015.

UK: Incoming data, particularly last week’s December PMI surveys yesterday, which smashed forecasts, continue to point to a robust economic rebound from the brief dip that was seen in the month or so following the vote to leave the EU last June. Sentiment in sterling markets has been correspondingly upbeat in early-year trading; the FTSE 100 equity index clocked record highs last week and the pound held its ground on foreign exchanges (though remains 17% below pre-EU vote levels).  The calendar this week is highlighted by production figures for November (Wednesday). The BRC retail sales report for December is also up (Tuesday), along with November trades figures (Wednesday) and a smattering of house price data through the week. None of the data is likely to challenge prevailing sentiment.

China: December CPI and PPI (tentatively due Tuesday) are penciled in at 2.1% y/y from 2.3% for the former, and 4.5% y/y from 3.3% for the latter. December new yuan loans (tentatively Tuesday) are expected to slip to CNY 700.0 bon from 794.6 bln. Trade data (due Thursday or Friday) should show modest improvement in the deficit to -$44.0 bln in December.

Japan: Markets will be closed Monday for the “Coming of Age” holiday. The calendar picks up Tuesday with December consumer confidence, which we expect will improve slightly to 41.0 from 40.9. November’s current account surplus (Thursday) is forecast to have narrowed to JPY 1,400.0 bln from JPY 1,719.9 bln previously. December bank loans (Thursday) should be up 2.5% y/y from 2.4% in November.

Australia:  The calendar remains thin this week, Retail sales (Tuesday) are projected to improve 0.5% following the identical 0.5% increase in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Projects are for steady rates from the RBA in 2017, as the economy gradually adjusts to the post-resource boom environment. The next RBA meeting is in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets managed to move higher, with Hong Kong outperforming as stronger metals boosted miners. The Yen retreated, which helped to underpin gains in Japan, while mainland China underperformed. Oil prices are up on the day, but the front end WTI future is still below USD 51 per barrel, after the latest slump and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are down. Sterling up from recent lows, but still down against most currencies, which should continue to underpin equities, (UK100 closed at a record high for the ninth consecutive day yesterday) but is also reviving inflation concerns. This added to Gilt underperformance versus the Bund yesterday and saw yields moving higher. In the Eurozone spreads were volatile throughout the day yesterday, and yield curves steepened as the short end outperformed again, highlighting that as inflation is making a comeback, the ECB is struggling to get a grip on the long end despite QE, although the most recent dip in oil prices, if sustained should help to dampen inflation concerns somewhat and base effects should see headline rates peaking in Q1 this year, before falling back somewhat. The local calendar has U.K. trade and production data, as well as a German 10-year Bund sale, but markets will be looking mainly to Trump’s eagerly awaited press conference.

FX Update: Forex markets have been hunkering down ahead of the U.S. president-elect Trump’s press conference, his first since the election, scheduled later on Wednesday, looking for some clarity on the political and fiscal agendas of the incoming administration. USD-JPY has settled around 116.00, above last week’s one-month low at 115.07, and below the pre-Christmas trend high at 118.66. EUR-USD has become entrenched in a narrow orbit of 1.0550, holding just below the 50-day moving average at 1.0571. We see Trump’s conference as something of a wildcard, though there is a chance he will manage to reignite the Trumpflation rally. This would follow bond guru Gross remarks of yesterday, where he argued that a sustained break in the U.S. T-note yield above 2.60% — which Gross reckons is much more important than Dow 20,000, $60-a-barrel oil or parity in EUR-USD — would mark the beginning of a “secular bear bond market.” Such a scenario would fuel another upward adjustment in dollar valuations against most other currencies.

Kuroda and Abe meet: BOJ’s Kuroda says meeting with Abe was a regular one and they discussed the global economy, specifically the US economy. They touched on Trump but no actual reference was made to the president-elect and both see the US economy growing “steadily”.  No reference or report on the FOMC rate hike cycle. USDJPY continues to pivot around the 116.00 handle.

Overnight Data: The U.S. wholesale report was modestly disappointing, with a 0.4% November sales rise after a downwardly-revised 1.1% (was 1.4%) price-led October surge, alongside a 1.0% inventory gain that exceeded the 0.9% increase in the advance indicators report, following a 0.1% drop in October. Wholesale sales undershot inventories in November but are still outpacing inventories overall in Q4 as oil prices rebound, following Q3 weakening in both sales and inventories. The Q4 GDP growth estimate has increased slightly to 1.6% from 1.5%, but this trims Q1 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.4%. Expectations are now for a $14 (was $10) bln inventory addition and a still-lean $21 bln accumulation rate that extends the $16.5 bln bounce in Q3, as inventories are now reversing a big five quarter inventory headwind that culminated in a $9.5 bln liquidation rate in Q2. U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 71k to 5,522k in November after dropping 180k to 5,451k (revised down from 5,534k). The rate edged up to 3.7% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). November hirings rose 59k to 5,219k following the 39k increase to 5,160k (revised from 5,099k). The rate was steady at 3.6% (October was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 41k to 3,064k from -29k to 3,023k (revised from 2,986k). The rate was unchanged at 2.1%. The JOLTS report is an important one to Fed Chair Yellen, but this is rather old news for the markets and hence didn’t  move the ticker.

Fedspeak: Fed hawk Lacker announced his retirement for October 1 on the Richmond Fed’s website. He’s been the bank’s president since August 2004, but has been with the Richmond Fed since 1989. He has also been a serial dissenter, opposing the consensus in all of his voting turns. In his last stint in 2015 he dissented twice against the consensus unchanged policy stance. And back in 2012 he opposed the FOMC’s outcome in all 8 meetings. He was the lone opponent in 2009, but it was with respect to QE and the purchase of Treasuries. But back in 2006 he dissented four times, each for a 25 bp hike. There’s going to be a lot of turnover at the Fed during Mr. Trump’s administration. He has two open governorships, while Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart already announced he’ll be stepping down in February. Meanwhile, Chair Yellen has indicated she plans to continue through her term which ends early in 2018.

Main Macro Events Today

Donald Trump Press Conference  –  Scheduled for 16;00 GMT. No a data release but by far the most significant event of the day. A wide ranging event is expected including Tax reform, immigration controls and reference to the Wall and climate change. Of particular interest to traders will be the incoming administrations (Mr Trump specifically) approach to trade and the impact particularly on the Mexican and Chinese currencies.  Trade War Round 1?

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Aftershocks from President-elect Trump’s campaign-like press conference, which had weighed on global stock markets and yields started to recede late in the U.S. session and U.S. equities managed to recover part of their losses. Asian markets rebounded led by Japan as the Yen weakened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher, while the front end Nymex future is trading around USD 53 per barrel. Bund futures already started to head south in the after hour session yesterday and core yields are likely to move higher in early trade. The European calendar only has the BoE’s credit conditions survey and the final reading for Spanish December HICP, leaving markets to focus on global developments.

FX Update: The dollar is trading softer into the London open, but remains comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday’s one-month low at 113.75. EURUSD has firmed up to around 1.0630 after logging an intraday low in Asia at 1.0603, but still remains some 50 pips below yesterday’s one-month peak. While doubts have now crept in about U.S. president-elect Trump’s reflation plans following his fractious press conference on Wednesday, returning some support to the dollar have been Fed speakers, who were not been shy yesterday in warning of upside risks to policy in 2017, with the debate hottest over how quickly to hike rather than when to do so. Another batch of U.S. data today will help shape Fed policy expectations, though Trump may have his work cut out to reignite the sputtering Trumpflation trade.

U.S. Reports revealed surprising firmness in December export prices alongside a restrained oil-boost to import prices, and a largely expected 10k rise in initial claims to a still-firm 247k that signals a tight start for 2017. For trade prices, the relative firmness in export versus import prices trimmed Q4 GDP growth prospects, though we left our estimate at 1.6%. For claims, gyrations through the New Year’s week can be attributed to holiday volatility, though we’re encouraged that claims are starting January below the 258k December average. Next week’s BLS survey week reading will likely undershoot the 275k December BLS survey week figure. We expect a 180k January nonfarm payroll rise that matches the average monthly gain in 2016, though this average faces a likely downward bump with the next report’s annual revisions.

Fedspeak: Chair Yellen’s speech contained surprises and keynote comment was that sh e thought “short term I would say I don’t think there are serious obstacles. I see the economy as doing quite well”   Fed’s Bullard maintained a rather circumspect outlook on policy and the economy. He projects only limited movement in rates, reiterating his views noted earlier of perhaps only 1 tightening this year and noting there is little reason to alter policy as the Fed nears its goals. There shouldn’t be any undue pick up in inflation. Job growth is likely to slow this year and next. And in terms of the new administration’s policies, he said it’s questionable what will actually occur. Bullard is not a voter this year. Kaplan: Fed should be removing accommodation in 2017, with growth forecast at greater than 2%, even without any fiscal boost. The U.S. is pretty near full employment and inflation is heading to 2%, though there’s some slack in the labor market and more demand than supply for skilled workers. He expects regulatory review and tax reform to help boost productivity, along with infrastructure investment. Kaplan said he will be scrutinizing decisions on trade, immigration and Obamacare for any impact on growth, while manufacturing plants need to be allowed flexibility in supply chains. This about par for the course, with the Fed evidently predisposed to normalize rates in 2017 all else equal.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – December retail sales data is out today expectations are for a 0.7% headline with the ex-autos aggregate up median 0.5% on the month. This follows November data which had the headline up 0.1% and ex-autos up 0.2%.

US  PPI Data –  December PPI data has expectations to post a 0.3% with the core index up 0.2% on the month. This compares to respective November figures which posted a 0.4% headline and a 0.4% increase for the core. Despite the fact that oil prices remain at depressed levels we did see a 14.0% climb in WTI prices in December which could lend some support to the headline.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – The first release on January Michigan Sentiment should reveal a headline increase to 98.5 (median 98.4) from 98.2 in December and 93.8 in November. Consumer confidence measures have been posting improvements since the election and the January IBD/TIPP poll has already reveal an increase for the month with a rise to 55.6 from 54.8 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 17th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, with Japan and ASX heading south amid reports that U.K. Prime Minister May will announce plans for a hard Brexit at today’s keynote speech. Yen strength is also continuing to put pressure on the Japanese markets. Mainland Chinese markets meanwhile mostly managed to pair losses in late trade and the CSI 300 is currently unchanged on the day while the Hang Seng is up 0.48%.Oil prices are little changed on the day, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 52.30 per barrel and Gold benefiting from the risk on mood trading at USD 1212. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down, after European markets already closed in the red yesterday, while core bond yields came off, with Sterling weakness for once not weighing on Gilt futures, which outperformed yesterday as inflation considerations are balanced with the risks of weaker growth going ahead as the U.K. seems to be heading for an exit from the single market. May’s speech aside today’s calendar includes U.K. inflation data for December, as well as German ZEW investor confidence (see below)

Canada Home Sales: Existing home sales improved 2.2% m/m in December after the 5.3% tumble in November’s seasonally adjusted home sales. The pull-back in November was the largest one month decline in 4 years and corresponded with the implementation of tightened mortgage regulations. The increase in December is contrary to expectations for another decline. But total actual (not seasonally adjusted sales) fell 5.0% compared to the level in December of 2015. New listing fell 3.0% in December versus November. Prices continued to climb on an annual basis: the MLS HPI was 14.2% higher y/y in December while the national average sales price grew 3.5% y/y.

Davos Speak: (From the BBC) – The big draw at the World Economic Forum in Davos today is Chinese president Xi Jinping who will officially open the event this morning. It is the first time a leader from China has attended the event. Early afternoon, Anthony Scaramucci, a member of US president-elect Donald Trump’s transition team, will talk about the outlook for America. Shortly afterwards, the outgoing US secretary of state, John Kerry, will discuss “diplomacy in an era of disruption”. Then Satya Nadella, the chief executive of Microsoft, will tackle the issue of artificial intelligence alongside Zhang Ya-Qin, boss of China search engine giant Baidu. Other highlights include The Future of Finance: John Cryan, the boss of the troubled Deutsche Bank takes part in a panel discussion on where now for the industry and Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz will examine how to end corruption.

ECB’s Praet: ECB policy was focused on avoiding deflation trap. The Executive Board member said at a conference in Paris late yesterday that the “when you have a very slow growth rate with an increase in unemployment for a long period of time, you get into a sort of vicious circle. You have to use the tools that you have to support demand”. Praet said that “it has been key from the central bank point of view to avoid the de-anchoring of inflation expectations” with ECB policy “driven by the mandate and by avoiding that we fall into a sort of deflationary trap”.

Main Macro Events Today

UK CPI & PPI  – 09:30 GMT – YoY UK CPI data is expected to increase to 1.4% from 1.2% last time, with the Core figure up to 1.5% from 1.4%. MoM for December expected to increase to 0.3% from 0.2%.  PPI figures also released at the same time this morning with input figures expected to increase to 2.2% from -1.1% last time and output figures expected to increase to 0.3% for 0.0% last time.
German ZEW – 10:00 GMT – December expected to see the headline rate rise to 18.0 from 13.8 in December. This would be consistent with a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% in the first quarter of this year after a broadly similar number in Q4 2016.
UK PM May Speech – 11:45 GMT – Expected to outline 12 key points for UK’s exit from the EU. No “half in, half out measures”. Prerelease of speech from Downing Street overnight.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 19th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan and ASX moving higher, as Fed’s Yellen said she expects to hike rates few times a year through 2019 to 3% neutral rate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Nikkei and Topix, while the drop in energy prices added to pressure on Chinese stocks with energy producers and miners leading the way down. The front end WTI future has lifted somewhat, but remains firmly below USD 52 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are also down, while FTSE 100 futures are posting gains, despite a stronger Pound. In Europe the focus turns to today’s ECB announcement, where Draghi is widely expected to keep policy on hold and will be under pressure to defend the ECB’s QE extension as inflation lifts higher and growth remains strong. The calendar also has Swiss producer price inflation and Eurozone BoP and current account data for November.

BOC: Larger Question Marks on the Outlook; The Bank of Canada delivered the widely expected lack of change to the 0.50% rate setting alongside a modestly more upbeat domestic and global growth outlook. The outlook is largely similar to October, but the degree of uncertainty has increased according to Governor Poloz. Hence, the Governor, in his Q&A, said that a rate hike remains on the table. While the outlook remains very uncertain, consensus is to see no change in rates for an extended period as the most sensible base-case policy scenario.

Fed Chair Yellen: Said she can’t give the timing of the next hike, but noted the Fed is close to meeting its twin goals, in her comments at The Commonwealth Club. As suggested by the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the dot-plot, she noted that she and most of her colleagues expect “a few” rate hikes a year. The next tightening will be a function of the economy over the coming months (that suggests a March move is unlikely). It makes sense for the Fed to gradually reduce monetary policy support.

US Data: U.S. reports revealed a hefty 0.8% December industrial production rise thanks to a 6.6% utility output surge that reversed the prior 9.7% weather-induced 3-month drop, alongside a 1.8% vehicle assembly rate bounce before a likely January drop-off, and a 0.7% business equipment rise that reversed a 0.7% November decline. Expectations are for a resumption of positive industrial production growth in 2017 led by a 2.4% Q1 clip, after a 0.6% weather-induced Q4 contraction rate that left a 7th decline over the last 9 quarters. We also saw the expected December CPI headline gain of 0.3% (0.282%), though the core price rise of 0.2% rounded down from a surprisingly firm 0.230% gain that sets the tone for bigger price gains in 2017.

Davos Speak: (from the BBC) Bills Winters and Briyan Moynihan, of Standard Chartered and Bank of America respectively, will be part of a panel examining the Global Banking Outlook.–Santander chairwoman Ana Botin forms part of a discussion on Which Europe Now?-Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook, will discuss A Leader’s Resilience.  Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google and founder of Bayshore Global Management, will be sharing his ideas. Bill Gates and GSK boss Andrew Witty take part in a discussion on CEPI: A Global Initiative to Fight Epidemics. Saudi Arabia and Russia will discuss the Global Energy Outlook. The UK PM Theresa May will pitch her Brexit plan to leaders and the Russian deputy PM Igor Shuvalov will talk about Russia’s place in the world.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate & Statement – ECB is widely expected to keep policy on hold after clarifying the policy outlook through to the end of the year, with purchase targets cut back to EUR 60 bln again from April. The ECB obviously tried to create some stability at least on the monetary front amid heightened uncertainty on the political front ahead of the Brexit talks and amid the change in U.S. administration. However, with inflation jumping higher, the central bank’s policy is coming under more scrutiny again and much of the press conference will likely be an exercise in trying to play down the importance of the rise in HICP to the highest level since 2013 as the ECB is heading for a further expansion of its balance.

US Housing Starts –  Should reveal an increase in the pace of starts to 1,184k from 1,090k in November and a recent high 1,340k in October. Permits should climb to a 1,230k pace from 1,212k in November and completions should be 1,100k from 1,216k in November.

US Phili Fed Index – Should reveal a headline decline to 15.1 from 19.7 in December and 8.7 in November. Revisions to the Philly Fed were released last week and lowered December’s headline slightly. More broadly, producer sentiment is expected to remain firm in January with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures rising to 54 from 53 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 23rd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2017.

FX News Today

President Trump has his feet under the desk in the Oval office and the tone of his inaugural speech and actions over the weekend reiterated his campaign themes to “Make America Great Again”. The unapologetic dogmatic “America First” rhetoric caused markets to pause on protectionism and trade barriers. The media once gain came under scrutiny over claim and counter claim from the new administration for attendances at the inauguration, and the women’s led demonstrations on Saturday. The NAFTA came under immediate review, the new Presidents tax returns will not be released “People didn’t care. They voted for him” (Kellyanne Conway) and the USD sold off significantly at the beginning of the new trading week.

United States: The week starts with existing home sales (Tuesday) forecast to rise just 0.2% to 5.62 mln in December following the 0.7% gain in November. The MBA mortgage market report (Wednesday) is due, alongside the EIA energy inventory report. The Advance trade report is forecast (Thursday) to show wider deficit to the tune of $65.7 bln in December, while the Chicago Fed national activity index is on tap, along with an expected 20k rebound in initial jobless claims to 254k for the week ended January 21. New home sales are expected to sink 2.0% to a 580k unit pace in December. Advance Q4 GDP is projected to sink to 2.0% from 3.5% in Q3 (Friday), Durable goods orders are expected to rebound 2.5% in December vs -4.5% previously and final Michigan sentiment is seen revised up to 98.5 in January from 98.1 initially.

Fedspeak runs dry this week after the flurry from Yellen and company last week, though it is entirely possible that some impromptu remarks could be forthcoming. Overall, even the doves now appear wary of unleashing fiscal stimulus with the jobless rate down at 4.7% and core CPI inflation topping 2.2% y/y — levels that Yellen suggested are consistent with the Fed’s twin goals.

Canada: Wholesale shipments (Monday) are expected to rise 0.5% in November after the 1.1% gain in October. The establishment survey (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 0.1% gain in average weekly earnings during November after the 0.1% dip in October. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. Governor Poloz delivers a speech at the University of Alberta School of Business on January 31.

Europe: Eurozone markets will be looking to the U.S. this week, as investors await more guidance on U.S. economic policies going ahead, but also on the future relationship between Europe and the U.S. and the implications for Nato. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI predicts a rise to 55.0 from 54.9, while we see the services reading at 53.7, which should lift the composite to 54.5 from 54.4. French business confidence is seen steady at 106, and the German Ifo Business Climate reading is expected to rise to 111.3  from 111.0 in December

UK: PM May last week at a long-awaited keynote speech on Brexit set the course for the UK to make a “clean break” from the EU. This cleared up a chunk of uncertainty, helping put a floor under the beleaguered pound. Cable rallied by just over 3% in the wake of the speech last Tuesday, helped on its way by a spike in CPI data, in what was the biggest single-day rally the pound has seen since 2008.  May will also be the first foreign leader to meet with the new USA President this week. January CBI industrial trends and distributive trades surveys (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively). The first estimate of Q4 GDP is also up (Wednesday), growth of 0.5% q/q and 2.1% y/y is expected, which would be slightly off the 0.6% and 2.2% pace of Q3. Overall, as-expected outcomes in the data should not have much impact on sterling markets.

China: The docket is empty.

Japan: The December trade balance (Wednesday) should reveal a wider surplus, to JPY 400.0 bln from 150.8 bln in November. December services PPI are penciled in at up 0.3% from the 0.2% increase previously. December national overall CPI (Friday) is seen up 0.1% y/y, down from 0.5% previously. Core CPI is expected at -0.4% y/y, unchanged from November.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted by the CPI (Wednesday), expected to gain 0.6% in Q4 after the 0.7% gain in Q3. The Q4 PPI and trade prices for Q4 are due on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s schedule remains empty this week, with nothing due from the bank until the meeting in early February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Japanese stock markets moved higher, led by Japanese bourses as the country managed to snap a 14-month long run of falling exports, which helped the Nikkei to close with a 1.4% gain (over 19,057.5), despite a stronger Yen. Better than expected corporate earnings are underpinning a rise in global growth optimism that already saw U.S. and European bourses closing higher yesterday and continued to back markets in Asia and the rise in U.S. and FTSE 100 stock futures this morning. The broad improvement in stocks and amid a wider rise in risk appetite already sent yields higher on Tuesday and are likely to continue to put pressure on bond futures today, especially as survey indicators in the form of the German Ifo and the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey are expected to have improved again at the start of the year, with no signs so far that the looming Brexit is weighing on growth in Europe on either side of the channel. Australian Inflation rose to 1.5% from1.3% last quarter, but missed expectations (i.e. 1.6%). AUDUSD fell overnight from 0.7600 and currently trades at 0.7520.

US data: U.S. reports revealed a surprising 2.8% December existing home sales drop despite mild weather in November and early December that sometimes lifts sales with a lag, though Q4 sales overall were boosted by weather, and we have an upwardly-revised 5.65 (was 5.61) November cycle-high and a remarkably lean 1.65 mln December inventory level. The Richmond Fed rise to a 10-month high of 12.0 from 8.0 in December and 4.0 in November, as the producer sentiment climb gains steam with the ongoing factory sector rebound. An employment index bounce to 8.0 from -1.0 adds to the upside risk for our a 190k January nonfarm payroll estimate.

The UK’s Supreme Court ruled against the government in the Brexit case, concluding in the appeal trial that the notification of Article 50 must be subject to a parliamentary vote. The Court also ruled that Scotland and Northern Ireland do not have a veto. The government is now expected to quickly put through a succinctly-worded bill through the House of Parliament and the House of Lords. No one expects that either House will stand in the way of the will of the people, but the concern is that it will be subject to amendments, which could draw-out the start of the formal process that will take the UK out of the EU. The ruling on Scotland and Northern Ireland suggests that the government won’t face any obstacle in pushing through with its intention for a “hard” Brexit. The pound, already under pressure ahead of the ruling, extended losses, though has since recouped some lost ground. Sterling is presently showing an average 0.2% decline versus the G3 currencies.

US Treasury Secretary nominee Mnuchin said too-strong a dollar may hurt the economy in a letter to a Senator asking about a hypothetical 25%-dollar rise, according to a Bloomberg report late Monday. He said, “From time to time, an excessively strong dollar may have negative short-term implications on the economy.” That came in contrast to his confirmation testimony in which he said the “strong dollar is important over the long term,” though he considered it “very, very strong.” The report may have added to the dollar’s wobble yesterday, though it has since recovered from lows. It also suggested that Trump may hold off formally labeling China a “currency manipulator” until after consulting with them first.

Main Macro Events Today

German IFO  – It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 111.3 from 111.0 in December. ZEW investor confidence also improved at the start of the year and even if yesterday’s services reading was a tad weaker than hoped, it is clear that the German recovery remains intact for now, even if Brexit and global political risks mean there is heightened uncertainty going ahead.

New Zealand CPI- Quarterly Inflation figures expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% last time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher overnight, with Nikkei and Topix was trading close to levels last seen in December 2015 as the Yen weakened. The Hang Seng is slightly down, but Asian markets are still heading for a weekly gain, even as the global stock market rally is running out of steam as concerns over a trade war start to dampen global growth optimism. In Europe, only the DAX managed to close with modest gains yesterday, while other markets ended in the red. U.K. stock futures are moving higher this morning as the Pound falls back again, but U.S. futures are narrowly mixed. Against that background, we could see a stabilization of long yields, which continued to move higher this week, although it remains to be seen whether the pressure on Eurozone peripherals eases. The calendar today has German import price inflation at the start of the session as well as confidence data out of France and Italy and Eurozone M3 money supply growth.

Japan: The BOJ CPI rose by 0.1% in December. This came in as expected but lower than Novembers 0.2% rise. The increase in global and domestic demand was based on rising stocks, which lead Japanese exporters into a better position. Furthermore, BOJ’s announced a major JGB (Japanese Government Bonds), had a negative influence on the Japanese Yen.

US: reports revealed modest upside surprises for December trade and wholesale inventories, though with a modest December retail inventory shortfall, alongside a 22k initial claims surge in the MLK week to 259k that still left a tight claims trend despite holiday volatility. We also saw a big 10.4% December drop for new home sales to a lean 536k rate led by weakness in the Midwest, as we unwound a likely weather-boost in November, though we also saw a 4.3% median price spike to a $322,500 all-time high with a 4.0% new home inventory rise to a 7-year high of 259k. We saw a big 0.5% U.S. December leading indicators rise that leaves a sharp climb in this measure since March. The day’s mix of data lifted our Q4 GDP estimate to 1.7% from 1.6%, though we trimmed our Q1 GDP forecast to 2.2% from 2.3%. We still expect a 190k January nonfarm payroll rise.

UK: Above-forecast preliminary GDP for Q4 cast little market impact, being released after Cable had already made its high. Her Majesty’s pound remains the week’s outperformer out of the currencies we track, presently showing an average 1.6% advance versus the G3 currencies. Cable support is at 1.2623-24, while the December-6 high at 1.2774 provides an upside waypoint. We still see sterling gains versus the dollar as opportunity to establish fresh short positions given Brexit-related uncertainties versus expectations for more Fed tightening and bold economic policies of Trump.

Main Macro Events Today

US  UK – President Donald Trump meets Prime Minister Teresa May.

US GDP and Durable goods – Quarterly GDP expected to fall to 2.2% from 3.5% in Q3 but above the 1.4% pace in Q2. After a string of contractions, inventories turned positive in Q3 and therefore positive turn back is again expected. December durable goods data expect a 2.0% increase for orders with shipments up 0.7% on the month and inventories up 0.2%. This compares to respective November figures of -4.5% for orders, 0.1% for shipments and 0.2% for inventories.

Michigan CSI – The second release on January Michigan Sentiment is out today and expected to be revised up slightly to 98.2 from 98.1 in December. The IBD/TIPP poll for the month posted an improvement to 55.6 from 54.8 in December and we expect Consumer Confidence to tick up to 114.0 from 113.7 last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 31st January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The selloff in equities continued in Asia overnight. Hong Kong and China remained closed for New Year celebrations, but elsewhere market remained weary of Trump related policy risks. The BoJ left policy unchanged as expected and there was no sign of tapering, despite an upward revision to the growth forecast, but this failed to limit the selloff in Nikkei and Topix as it underpinned a stronger currency. U.S. stock futures are also down, but FTSE 100 futures are managing slight gains, despite a stronger Pound. The European data calendar is packed today, with the highlights including Eurozone inflation and GDP data, as well as German and Eurozone unemployment numbers and BoE lending data out of the U.K. There are also a number of ECB speakers, which are expected to play down the importance of the latest uptick in inflation.

Japan: Japanese household Spending came in unexpectedly at 0.3% lower than December’s 1.5%. Unemployment rate matches analysts’ predictions, since it came in at 3.1%, which consider being unchanged based on December’s rate. Furthermore, BOJ’s announced that monetary policy will be kept steady.

US data reports: The U.S. income report revealed a 0.3% December income rise after a small November boost that tracked assumptions, but a firm 0.5% consumption increase with a solid 0.3% “real” rise that modestly beat estimates. We saw a lean 0.2% December chain price rise that lifted the “real” consumption gain, while the savings rate fell to 5.4% from 5.6% (was 5.5%) in November. The firm close to Q4 consumption signaled slight upside risk to our 2.0% Q1 GDP estimate, which we left intact for now despite a small boost in our Q1 real consumption growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.1%, after a 2.5% Q4 clip. The savings rate has considerable room to fall as we eventually unwind the lofty 6.1% Q1 average and 6.2% figure last March, as the rate is well above the 4.6% cycle-low from November of 2013. The Confidence spike since the U.S. elections may indeed signal a further savings rate drop into early-2017 that boosts consumption relative to income. U.S. pending home sales bounced 1.6% to 109.0 in December after falling 2.5% to 107.3 in November from October’s 110.0.  But, compared to last December, pending sales are down 2.0% y/y versus the 1.4% y/y gain for November.

Germany: German inflation data led the way for an uptick in the Eurozone rate, to 1.6% y/y from 1.1% y/y in December. Base effects from energy prices are the main driving factor and with even the German rate holding below the ECB’s 2% limit, the central bank is unlikely to change its course on the back of the numbers. Given that spreads are already widening, it will be crucial for Draghi and Co to send a very clear message to markets in coming months. German Dec retail sales came in, early today, much weaker than anticipated at -0.9% m/m. Expectations had been for a rise of 0.6% m/m as a rebound from the slump in the previous month and the data are more than disappointing, and at odds with very strong consumer confidence figures and the Bundesbank’s full year 2016 growth estimate, which suggested a strong last quarter also thanks to consumption. However, official retail sales cover only a part of overall consumption, so the gap between the official data and the consumption numbers in the GDP measures seem to be widening

Main Macro Events Today

Draghi’s speech – ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in ECB and European Commission conference.

Eurozone GDP – Quarterly GDP growth is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q, from 0.3% in the previous quarter and with a slight upside risk. Growth is broadening and confidence indicators suggest ongoing improvement in economic activity ahead, helped to a large extend by consumption and domestic demand. Risks remain tilted to the downside and come mainly from the political sphere inside and outside the Eurozone. For now, though the recovery remains on track.

US ECI & Consumer Confidence – Employment cost data expected to come in at 0.6%, matching the pace of growth that we have seen last time. The y/y pace of growth should tick up to 2.4% after holding at 2.3% for the past two quarters. January consumer confidence is expected to edge higher to 114.0 from 113.7 in December and 109.4 in November. Since the election various confidence measures have been topping highs set last winter during the oil price plunge.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 2nd February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south ( Nikkei closed own -1.22% at 18, 914) ongoing concerns about am emerging global trade war, and as the dollar weakened after the Fed failed to signal a rate hike as early as March, which some expected after yesterday’s data round. Oil prices fell back and investor confidence ebbed. Meanwhile the tense transatlantic mood and the apparent desire by the new U.S. administration stir discord in the Eurozone and the EU with the aim of breaking up of the union, should keep Eurozone spreads on a widening path. This backdrop, if it sustains, this will make it less likely that the ECB will end its very accommodative monetary policy, and keep the euro on the back foot.  The UK parliament voted in favour of the government to trigger Article 50 and today the Brexit White Paper will be released.

Australian Trade – A Record Surplus: Imports rose to 1% from 0% last time and Exports fell to 5% from 8%  which grew the trade balance much more than expected to record  AUD 3,511Million from AUD2, 040 million last time and an expected figure of AUD2, 200million.  The record trade balance was due mainly to significant increases in commodity prices and prevented Australia slipping into a “technical” recession for Q4 2016.

The FOMC Statement: FOMC said inflation “will rise to 2%” over the medium term, and that economic activity continued to expand, while the labor market continued to strengthen. There was no change in rates, as projected. The FED also gave itself maximum flexibility to act in March, or not, if it deems it necessary as the policy statement neither put the markets on notice, nor did it signal the all-clear. Many factors will go into the policy decision next month. While stronger data and rising inflation pressures may push some of the more hawkish Committee members to argue for a 25 bp hike, the current voters, including Evans, one of the most dovish participants, along with the centrist Kashkari would likely prefer to delay, especially if political uncertainties remain high and if fiscal stimulus looks to be farther out the timeline. Additionally, the markets could be shaky ahead of Brexit, as the UK moves closer to triggering that event, and the March 15 general elections in the Netherlands. With this backdrop, Fedspeak should be closely monitored.  USD sagged following the announcement and overnight Cable touched 1.2680, the Euro perked to 1.0795 and Japanese yen traded down to 112.46. The US Dollar index is currently trading significantly under 100 at 99.43.

US data: U.S. ADP reported private payrolls surged 246k in January after a 151k gain in December (revised from 153k). The service sector climbed 201k from 147k previously (revised from 169k), while employment in the goods producing sector rose 46k from December’s 4k gain. The U.S. ISM surge to a 2-year high of 56.0 from prior highs of 54.5 in December and 53.5 in November lifted January nonfarm payroll estimates to 200k from 190k, as the index continues to climb steeply from the 47.9 expansion-low in December of 2015. The jobs component surged to a 29-month high of 56.1 from an 18-month high of 52.8 in December.

Main Macro Events Today

BoE Super Thursday – Today the BOE announce it interest rate decision, (very likely to remain unchanged) along with its asset purchase facility (again likely to be unchanged) the minutes and votes from their last meeting and also the Quarterly Inflation report (the most interesting data)  The minutes and inflation report are expected to convey a continued wait-and-see stance, repeating that policy could go in either direction this year. Finally governor Carney and members of the MPC hold a press conference regarding the Inflation report (likely to be by far the most interesting).

ECB President Draghi Speech – The speech in Slovenia may be more interesting and market moving than his speech on Monday but markets seem to be in a Trump On / Trump Off mood rather than Risk On / Risk Off.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th February 2017.

FX News Today

February is starting off on an optimistic front after a solid beat from the January jobs report, and generally good news from the ISMs. Data calendars are pretty light around the world, though there will be a number of central bank meetings in Asia. Trade reports will highlight globally, especially from Germany, which has caught the ire of President Trump. The UK will also continue to wrestle with its Brexit dilemma, with the focus on the freshly published white paper on its negotiating stance before Article 50 is invoked next month.

United States: The economic calendar is a relatively lean one this week, with GDP and payrolls in the rear-view mirror now. Monday is empty, while the trade deficit is forecast to narrow to -$45 bln (Tuesday). JOLTS job openings and consumer credit are also due (Tuesday), with credit seen expanding by $20 bln in December from $24.5 bln in November. The MBA mortgage applications and EIA energy inventories are the only offerings (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims may rise 249K from 247K for the week ended February 2 (Thursday), while wholesale sales may rise 0.7% in December and inventories increase 1.0%. The Spartan week rounds out with import prices and export prices forecast unchanged in January (Friday), while preliminary Michigan sentiment is expected at 97.9 vs 98.5 last time. The January’s Treasury budget will also come out on Friday. The earnings season is coming to an end, but there are still a few key announcements due. So far 66.4% of the 274 S&P500 companies that have reported have revealed positive earnings news, while 20.8% have given negative surprises, with 12.8% in line.

Canada: The Canadian calendar is one of the few with a hearty spread of economic data this week after the paltry offerings last week. The employment report (Friday) is the main course, with total jobs projected to rise 5.0k in January after the 46.1k surge in December. The trade report (Tuesday) is expected to show a further expansion in the surplus to $1.2 bln in December following the surprise shift to a $0.5 bln surplus in November. Crude oil prices were sharply higher in December, which should provide a hefty boost to export values. The usual pairing of building permits (Tuesday) and housing starts (Wednesday) is expected to show moderation in Canada’s housing sector as Federal government measures impact. The Ivey PMI (Tuesday) is expected to fall to 58.3 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis from 60.8 in December. A 0.1% increase in the new housing price index (Thursday) is anticipated following the 0.2% gain in November.

Europe: The data calendar dries up this week and with the central bank meetings out of the way, the markets will have plenty of time to focus on the political risks that seem to be hitting the Eurozone from the inside and the outside. The French presidential election (first round April 23) remains a factor for markets, and it will be key to see how the Eurozone and the EU will react to the fact that the number of those who would love to see the unions fail is rising. Against that background and with the U.S. administration criticizing the weak EUR, which in turn is adding to Germany’s push for QE tapering, Eurozone spreads are likely to remain volatile and to continue to widen. Ironically that in turn puts Draghi in a difficult position and fears of a revival of the debt crisis will mean the ECB president will continue to send dovish signals at his comments at the European Parliament hearing next week.

The highlight of the data calendar is German manufacturing orders today (Monday), which came out at 5.2% from the -2.5% m/m decline in November. The sharp correction in orders in November, will likely keep a lid on December industrial production numbers (Tuesday) which are expected to rise to 0.2% m/m, following the 0.4% m/m in November. German December trade data (Thursday) may attract more attention than usual, not because of the monthly figure, but because it will likely show that Germany is the world’s leading exporters, which at the current juncture will only add to the arguments of German critics, especially Mr. Trump. Interestingly though, GDP numbers for this year already indicated that net exports detracted from overall growth and that the German recovery has been mainly underpinned by domestic demand and consumption. Additionally, the event calendar has ECBspeak from Draghi, Mersch, Weidmann and others and a German 10-year Bund sale on Wednesday.

UK: The calendar is fairly quiet this week, highlighted by industrial production and trade figures for December (Friday). The January BRC retail sales report is also up (Tuesday), along with the RICS house price balance for the same month (Thursday). The narrower manufacturing production gauge is expected to expand by 0.3% m/m from 1.3% last time. Data in-line with expectations should not affect sterling markets. Brexit focus will be on the government’s freshly published white paper on its negotiating stance before Article 50 is invoked. The paper will be subject to parliamentary approval, and is widely expected to pass without too much trouble. The government has pledged that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March.

China: The January services PMI missed expectations since came out at 53.1 from forecast 53.6, while the January trade surplus is expected to balloon to $49.8 bln from 40.8 bln. January loan growth and new yuan loans are due Friday.

Japan: Japan’s docket kicks off with the December current account (Wednesday), where the surplus is expected to narrow to JPY 1,100 bln from 1,415,5 bln. January bank loan data are also due. December machine orders (Thursday) should rise 3.2% m/m from the prior 5.1% decline. January PPI (Friday) is penciled in at -0.1% y/y from -1.2% in December, while the December tertiary industry index is also due Friday.

Australia: The calendar has the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday) where we expect the rate setting to hold at 1.50%. RBA Governor Lowe speaks at the A50 Australian Economic Forum Dinner (Thursday). The RBA publishes the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday. Economic data features. December housing investment (Friday) is expected to rise to 1.0% relative to November after the 0.9% m/m gain in November.

New Zealand: This week’s calendar has the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting (Wednesday), expected to result in no change to the 1.75% rate setting. At the last meeting, way back in early November, the RBNZ cut the OCR to 1.75% from 2.00%, as inflation continued to run below the target range. Governor Wheeler kept an easing bias in place at the time.

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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

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